Negotiations – Page 4 – Slugger O'Toole

Has David Trimble has provided the DUP with the crucial argument for supporting the deal?

Brian Walker on March 18, 2019, 11:22 am

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Has their old enemy David Trimble provided the DUP with useful ammunition to support Mrs May’s deal? We’re told she will only make a third attempt at securing the Common’s agreement this week if she can be sure of winning a majority. And for that DUP support is crucial, not only in terms of numbers but for their influence with the ERG. “It was the Attorney General wot wrecked it” was the Brexiteer verdict after last Tuesday’s debacle, when their …

Nigel Dodds speaks out. But is the DUP’s uncompromising stance any more than cover for living with the backstop?

Brian Walker on March 17, 2019, 2:15 am

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After the chaos of last week, leading media reflect sharply differing views on the prospects for a third meaningful vote on Tuesday. The Leave – supporting Telegraph newspapers have emerged as the unlikely cheerleaders for Mrs May’s battered deal. If the deal passes, No 10 officials say the necessary legislation will have cleared the Commons by April 25, paving the way for a new Brexit Day in the final week of May or first week of June, according to the …

Nigel Dodds rejects a lame attempt to Play the Orange Card to revive May’s deal

Brian Walker on March 15, 2019, 12:16 am

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With the No Deal option off the table a soft Brexit become more likely. In the ultimate paradox, this decision which flies in the face of Theresa May’s strategy actually strengthens her very weak hand just a little. By just two votes, she fended off a bid for parliament to take back control and was able to specify a short period of extension to 30th June, if the EU agrees. The ERG believe this could be their last throw to …

We’re back to the DUP as the touchstone for a Brexit deal

Brian Walker on March 9, 2019, 11:33 am

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Tony Connelly’s detailed report from the EU side identifies what he regards as a shift of ground by the UK Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to try to satisfy the DUP which is skunnering the chance of a breakthrough. The EU has been shifting towards providing legally binding assurances, through a Joint Interpretative Statement that sets out the obligations to conclude a free trade deal and look at alternatives to the backstop in quick time. But in the Commons earlier this …

Give us the softest Brexit and a plague on all your houses! In Northern Ireland, the gap between people and politicians is wider than ever – latest North-South poll

Brian Walker on March 8, 2019, 11:26 am

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It’s a snap shot in a febrile atmosphere I know, but who can be surprised? A new poll from the Irish Times and Ipsos/MRBI – in fact parallel polls north and south – find that 59 per cent of Northern Ireland voters want a special arrangement for Northern Ireland for no checks on the border – even if that means some checks on goods travelling between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The poll also found that 67 per cent of voters …

Panic in government ranks as Corbyn opens talks with soft Brexit Tories about taking control away from May facing defeat next week

Brian Walker on March 6, 2019, 11:50 pm

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“Cox ‘s codpiece is empty” scoffed a leading Brexiteer tonight in a sign of hardening opinion against the Attorney General’s chances of success to secure a legal formula to satisfy the Tory right and the DUP. Ideas for a convoluted arbitration process now under discussion do not impress. By this reckoning the best that can he hoped for next week is a meaningful vote in favour of extending Article 50. If that happens Brexit is up for grabs. Tonight in …

Every day we stand still, we fall further behind

John Lavery on February 19, 2019, 12:53 pm

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Last week we saw the most recent efforts to kick-start talks to restore devolved government here in the North, and again the efforts seemed to have fallen at the first hurdle with the main parties fairly down on the session and chances of progress. We are now over two years without an Executive, local minsters and various associated committees that form the basis of devolved government here. Many on the street ask “what has changed?”, highlighting that “they didn’t do …

Rumbled! Theresa May’s secret plan to extend Article 50 and stay close to the customs union long term.

Brian Walker on February 13, 2019, 12:28 am

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Theresa May will not mind being forced to extend Article 50 in fifteen day’s time by a cross parliamentary vote, if Tory Brexiteers try to veto whatever she brings back from Brussels. Long suspected as inevitable despite her constant denials, the evidence for this comes – would you believe it ? from that old faithful of hacks’ sources,” overheard in a bar” – in this case by ITN correspondent in Brussels , Angus Walker. Last night, I’d been reporting …

Theresa May is prepared to go right to the brink. The Remainers’ last chance is 27 February

Brian Walker on February 12, 2019, 6:27 pm

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Against most expectations, Theresa May has all but abandoned any effort to strike a cross party agreement with the Labour front bench. To concentrate minds, a cliff hanging finale as late as 26 March – three days before Leave day – is now looking likely. You don’t need to get into her head to come to this conclusion. It’s nakedly obvious from her statement and the exchanges in the Commons today. She’s challenging all sides who so decisively turned down …

Theresa May must do business with Jeremy Corbyn. So is it goodbye DUP?

Brian Walker on February 8, 2019, 2:50 pm

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In her heart, Theresa May must realise that her desperate attempts to hold a Conservative majority together and avoid a crash out No Deal in fifty days’ time are on the point of collapse. She told Donald Tusk yesterday that her party would never unite behind Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit letter and that 30 of her MPs would never back her deal unless changes were made to the Irish backstop. To hear them all talk you’d think they had all the …

The creeping reality is dawning of what extending Article 50 means

Brian Walker on February 6, 2019, 3:45 pm

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To clear my head, I’ve done a round up of expert comment of where we are and what might be done, with 51 days to go to Brexit. Most of it implies or supports an extension of Article 50. But the heavy squeeze on Mrs May is on with a vengeance. The EU don’t look like granting it unless she drops options they’ve already rejected And that excludes the options in her Commons mandate. So this week, back empty …

From Donald to Theresa, the bluntest of messages. Nothing doing unless you drop the Brexiteer options

Brian Walker on February 6, 2019, 3:14 pm

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With 51 days to go to and Brexit clarity as elusive as ever, EU council president Donald Tusk drops a not so subtle hint that most of Mrs May’s renegotiation options are no goers. Afterward meeting Leo Varadkar, Tusk said those who promoted Brexit without a plan for leaving deserve “a special place in hell”. There are 50 days left until the UK’s exit from the European Union, following the decision and the will of the UK authorities. I know …

It’s Ireland’s call as well as England’s – and both can still win the match!

Brian Walker on February 3, 2019, 1:40 pm

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Let’s go straight to the bottom line. Ireland and EU26 say the backstop is necessary to prevent a hard border. The UK says insistence on the backstop in its present form is the best way to guarantee a hard border. These are expressions of perfect deadlock. Nevertheless, after the defeat of the withdrawal deal by over 200 votes, Mrs May is returning to Brussels to seek an “alternative” to the backstop, either a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism to …

“Such pressure as is on Ireland (and it will be significant) will come from the reality of the situation…”

Pete Baker on February 2, 2019, 3:03 pm

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Worth quoting at length from Pat Leahy in the Irish Times on the Irish Government’s role in the ongoing Brexit negotiations. It’s a welcome, un-hysterical look at a key player in what will unfold. [And all too rare here! – Ed] Indeed. From the Irish Times By and large, Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney and the Government apparatus as a whole have handled the Brexit crisis well – just as the Opposition, in the main, has been pretty responsible. Contrast our …

Brexiteers are starting to fear that May will bend to reality

Brian Walker on January 31, 2019, 1:38 am

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He was the unlikely hero of the hour. In the Commons last night with his voice shaking, Tory MP Oliver Letwin, the backroom politician who was the chief policy coordinator of the Cameron coalition, made the most striking statement of the day. “I’ve actually got to the point where I am past caring what the deal is we have. I will vote for it to get a smooth exit.” On the face of it, a very irresponsible statement indeed from …

Enter the “Malthouse compromise.”

Brian Walker on January 29, 2019, 11:20 am

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In the present fevered atmosphere, what seems like a Eureka moment inside the Westminster bubble may not survive the cold light of day. Nevertheless, in Tory ranks excitement is building over the Malthouse compromise, a plan co-ordinated by a minister Kit Malthouse proposed by leading soft dealer Nicky Morgan. This would extend the transition period from the end of 2020 to December 2021 and allow the UK and EU to “prepare properly” for WTO terms or “obviate this outcome by …

No Deal alarm is rising on both sides of the border

Brian Walker on January 26, 2019, 12:12 pm

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Ah the old, old days! With so much concentration on the Westminster bubble, it’s easy to forget that the pressures of Brexit operate in several directions. Cracks in the facade of unity among EU 27 are appearing on the surface as the prospect of No Deal by default refuses to go away. Irish alarm is by no means unique. As everybody always knew, solidarity with EU 26 leaves the Republic uniquely exposed to a particularly inelegant game of political poker …

The DUP seem poised to bail out Theresa May. Will the EU be impressed?

Brian Walker on January 25, 2019, 11:52 pm

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After that cosy little dinner at Chequers, the Downing St spin machine duly delivered straight to The Sun THE DUP have privately decided to back Theresa May’s Brexit deal next week when she toughens it up, in a major breakthrough for No10. The Sun can reveal that delicate deliberations are now ongoing between the Ulster unionist party’s leaders and the PM. In a crucial shift, it has emerged that the DUP are now willing to accept a backstop as long as …

Brexit panic surfaces in Dublin but the EU is implacable on No Deal consequences

Brian Walker on January 23, 2019, 9:12 pm

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Last night I managed to survive the Ivan Rogers Experience, ( YouTube) a remorseless dissection of the entire Brexit debate which was as depressing as it was impressive. With good reason, Rogers is known as the Eeyore among Brexit experts. He was the UK ambassador to the EU who quit in disgust six months into Theresa May’s premiership. Remorselessly he spelled out the defects of every option now facing the UK, including remaining or re-applying. He laid about him with …

With the Conservative and Labour leaders now under internal pressure, MPs on both sides of the chamber move to take control

Brian Walker on January 22, 2019, 12:15 am

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. The moment of Brexit decision has shifted yet again – closer and closer to default crash out of the EU on 29 March. Theresa May has confirmed that plan B is plan A – basically the deal that was so massively rejected a week ago. But the dynamics have changed. Next Monday she will move a neutral motion to the Withdrawal Bill taking note of her statement today. This will allow amendments to be moved with alternative proposals for …