Lucky people in Scotland and Wales are heading to the polls next month to elect their devolved parliaments. We would be heading to the polls too had our Executive not collapsed in 2017, so we get that treat next year. However, I thought it would be useful to set out some of the things to look out for and keep in mind when watching the campaign and election results. Scotland Voters will elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament, but …
At the next general election, the Conservatives’ hopes of regaining the overall majority in the House of Commons will rest on winning a substantial number of seats from Labour in Brexit supporting areas in the North and Midlands of England. This is especially true given that they can expect to lose seats in Remain voting areas in London, the South East and Scotland. The map above compares the results of the 2016 EU referendum on a constituency basis (with seats …
Previously, I looked at what might happen at a future general election using the 2017 general election results as a base and a YouGov poll to redistribute votes to see how a new general election might pan out. This poll gave the Tories a 9 point lead over Labour in second place, and accordingly in such a scenario the Tories would win a majority despite a historically low vote share, albeit with a smaller majority if the Lib Dems, Greens …
For much of the last century, general elections in Great Britain have been largely predictable affairs. Aside from the odd Liberal, SNP and Plaid Cymru MP returned here and there, Westminster elections were a battle between Labour and the Conservatives. The relationship between the opinion polls and election results was straightforward; most constituencies were either safe Labour or Tory seats, and it was well established that a few points gained or lost in the opinion polls could predict the winner …
The Conservatives are on the verge of being virtually wiped out at this Thursday’s European election, whilst the Brexit Party look set to improve on the 24 seats that Ukip won at the 2014 poll. Using the data from this YouGov poll and analysis on the number of seats won by the vote received in the 2014 election, I estimated the probability of each party winning each seat in each European constituency. The Brexit Party would be, by far, the …
An unpopular Conservative government, a left-wing Labour leader with poor favourability ratings, and a breakaway faction of centrist Labour MPs joined by a Conservative defection a short while afterwards. The parallels between the formation of the Independent Group of MPs in February 2019, and that of the Social Democratic Party in 1981, are clearly apparent. Could a new centrist force make a breakthrough in a Westminster general election, as the alliance between the Liberals and the SDP famously failed to …
The snap General Election called for June 2017 would appear to be a significant opportunity for the Liberal Democrats. In contrast with Labour’s mixed messages on Brexit, the Lib Dems are offering a much clearer stance on Brexit, positioning themselves as the party who will stop a hard Brexit and keep the UK in the single market. Could this year’s election provide an opportunity for the Lib Dems to become the party to speak for the 48% of the UK …
There’s lots of talk about Charlie Kennedy’s talents and his ‘flaws’, often a euphemistic way of talking about his alcoholism. Alistair Campbell has blogged movingly and directly about their shared illness. It was never exactly a secret. I remember canvassing a man in the 2004 European election campaign, a rather grand chap in a very wealthy street just north of Kensington Gardens. “Oh, the Liberals”, he sneered, “Couldn’t possibly vote for a party led by an alcoholic.” “I take it …
There’s going to be plenty of time to figure all the detail out later, but one hunch I have been labouring under for some time is the supposition that for all the talk of how UKIP would eat Labour or the Conservatives the party they actually ate was the Lib Dems. Necessarily so, since after 2010 some of their MPs were dug in very shallowly and could no longer count on tactical votes from Labour voters. The Lib Dems were, …
Any hopes that the DUP had that last night’s ill-judged comments by Health Minister Jim Wells would be quickly forgotten appear to be fast receding. If anything the ‘apology’ by Mr. Wells betrays ignorance on the part of the Health Minister more than anything else. Sadly the PSNI have now confirmed that they are now investigating comments made by Mr. Wells’ – perhaps the new laws suggested by the Ulster Fry would be more appropriate. UPDATE: Tonight (Sunday April 26th, 2015) …
The saga of Lord Rennard has been enjoyed in many political quarters. Rennard was a man who until these allegations surfaced was unknown even to most politically interested people. He is, however, a significant figure in the Liberal democrats and their recent rise – a rise severely curtailed when they got their snouts to the truffles of power. There is good reason for many outside the Liberal Democrats to hate Rennard. He evolved an extremely effective campaigning strategy based on …
The local election results in England and Wales (mainly rural England in actual fact) are now in. They are somewhere between a protest vote with little relevance to the next Westminster elections and a complete sea change in British politics. As ever the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. It does, however, illustrate an interesting disconnect between the main parties and significant portions of the electorate. The first thing to remember is that these elections are not national elections. …
George Osborne for the first time appeared nervous. No Chancellor in recent memory, apart from perhaps Gordon Brown, in the early years of New Labour appeared so cocksure. For three years Osborne has had to dress up bad news as good news. He cherry picked the statistics that suited him best, of course all Chancellors do this but this was something that Osborne attacked his predecessors for. Yes, the Coalition came into tough times economically but they are now three …
Or not, as the case may be. ANYhoo… A Conservative Party backed proposal to redraw UK parliamentary constituency boundaries has been defeated in the House of Commons. As the BBC reports MPs voted by 334 to 292 to accept changes made by peers, meaning the planned constituency shake-up will be postponed until 2018 at the earliest. It was the first time Lib Dem ministers have voted against their Conservative coalition colleagues in the Commons. The two parties have been in …
The backlash to the Labour gains in the council elections seems to be continuing. Some such as William Hague have tired to write the election results off as a typical mid term result (and to be fair although good for Labour they were not a Tory melt down) but others are more concerned. The results have fed into the narrative of the omnishambles and the fear appears to be amongst Tory MPs that a vicious circle of increasing disaster, increasing …
At the Guardian’s Scotland Blog, Severin Carrell notes the independently-minded Shetland and Orkney Lib Dem MSPs Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur’s attempt to play Alex Salmond at his own game – with a joint, “at best provocative and, in constitutional terms, at least playful”, submission to the UK government’s consultation on the independence referendum. Short BBC video report here. From the Guardian’s Scotland Blog Scott and McArthur have reinvigorated a long-standing notion that the former Viking earldoms of Shetland and Orkney have …
There has been a slow burning story going on for months now about Chris Huhne the Liberal Democrat Energy Sectary. Huhne who was one of the challengers for the Liberal Democrat leadership both against Ming Campbell and Nick Clegg (by whom he was only narrowly defeated). Huhne’s problem has been the claims that whilst he was MEP for South East England in 2003 he was caught by a speed camera whilst driving into central London from Stanstead airport. Huhne already …
Below I looked at the AV referendum. Although that was the single largest mass slaughtering by the public of a Liberal Democrat Sacred Cow, the electorate seemed determined to cause the Liberal Democrats as much electoral pain as possible. They lost seats in English local elections; were practically annihilated as the governing party in any northern English towns; were humiliated in Scotland and pushed into fourth in Wales (clearly Lembit Opik got thrown out at the right time). This was …
I mentioned the Liberal Democrats and their potentially Faustian Pact with the Tories last week. This weekend saw the Liberal Democrats spring conference. One of the motions carried was about the proposed reforms to the NHS in England. The Liberal Democrat rank and file seem very concerned about effects of the possible changes. The motion carried included this part: Conference welcomes our Coalition Government’s commitment to the founding principles of the NHS: available to all, free at the point of …
The Barnsley by-election was caused by the conviction of former Labour MP Eric Illsley for dishonestly claiming parliamentary expenses. It has been a safe Labour seat for almost a century but one might have expected a bit of a back lash. Of course there was a back lash: against the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal democrats once the specialists at winning by elections were heavily defeated. In the Oldham East and Saddleworth by election (again called over shenanigans by a Labour …
