The Alliance Party’s gains in the local and European elections won’t necessarily lead to Assembly election success

As expected, Naomi Long won a seat in the European Parliament following the Alliance Party’s success at the local elections earlier in the month. However, it isn’t necessarily a given that the Alliance Party’s success at the local and European level will translate to success in any future Assembly election. This is because the areas that Alliance increased their vote in aren’t optimal from the point of view of maximizing their representation in the Assembly. Unlike the system in Israel, …

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#LE19 1st pref votes and share summary

Just a quick post to archive the 1st preference vote totals and the vote share percentages for each party in the 2019 Northern Ireland local government elúctions for posterity – as the vote totals are hard to find elsewhere at the moment. With a higher turnout, the DUP grew their vote and share, while SF grew vote but shrank share. UUP and SDLP lost votes and lost share. Greens, Alliance, and PBP grew votes and share. Tories, UKIP, TUV, PUP …

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After #LE19n …The UUP must commit to enlarging the shadow of the future…

The Ulster Unionists are usually the party which gets the worst coverage relative to their actual performance in elections. Direct comparisons with 2014 local government election are far from flattering, but there’s been a less than 1% fall since the Assembly elections of two years ago. There’s barely any change if you take the benchmark as Jim Nicholson’s 2014 European campaign. Of course they have problems, but as Professor Tim Bale has noted, a party around as long as the …

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