General Election

General election seat forecasts are no longer useful

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 2, 2019, 9:41 pm | Readers 3906

For much of the last century, general elections in Great Britain have been largely predictable affairs. Aside from the odd Liberal, SNP and Plaid Cymru MP returned here and there, Westminster elections were a battle between Labour and the Conservatives. The relationship between the opinion polls and election results was straightforward; most constituencies were either safe Labour or Tory seats, and it was well established that a few points gained or lost in the opinion polls could predict the winner …

A new British centrist party would likely benefit the Tories, just like the last time

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 5, 2019, 10:42 pm | Readers 1027

An unpopular Conservative government, a left-wing Labour leader with poor favourability ratings, and a breakaway faction of centrist Labour MPs joined by a Conservative defection a short while afterwards. The parallels between the formation of the Independent Group of MPs in February 2019, and that of the Social Democratic Party in 1981, are clearly apparent. Could a new centrist force make a breakthrough in a Westminster general election, as the alliance between the Liberals and the SDP famously failed to …

It’s all a bit of a mess

Sara McCracken on April 28, 2017, 6:55 am | Readers 542

I decided to get over my FOMO and steer clear of social media when I was off for a week over Easter. Given I hadn’t heard any news or picked up a newspaper I allowed myself two minutes on Twitter – only to find that we were heading for yet another election. Seriously Mrs May! I love an election and exercising my hard-won democratic right to vote as much as the next person, but further polarising the country is not …

Why Enda must aim for a 2016 Election Date

Johnny Fallon on June 3, 2015, 1:06 pm | Readers 825

Predicting elections is a tricky business. The pressure of government sees events overtake plans very quickly. Deciding when to go to the country has always been a holy grail of strategy for serving Taoisigh. There are many examples of getting it wrong and still many more of where a government collapse takes the decision away from a Taoiseach. Enda Kenny will have to try plan things though. All things going well the ultimate decision lies with him. There is one …

Carál Ní Chuilín: “Electoral commission vetoed using last election figures…” – Update

Pete Baker on May 2, 2015, 7:40 pm | Readers 2113

David may not want to go there, although ‘idealistic’ wasn’t the first word that sprang to mind. [Was it another word beginning with ‘i’? – Ed] You might very well think that… ANYhoo… Gerry Kelly’s Sinn Féin colleague in north Belfast, and the Northern Ireland Culture Minister, Carál Ní Chuilín, MLA, should, perhaps, have other things on her mind. But, on Thursday, the Minister was on Twitter defending Sinn Féin’s use of the 2011 census’ breakdown of the constituency by religion in support of the party’s …

#GE2015 Complete NI Candidate List

Kris Nixon (Belfast Barman) on April 9, 2015, 9:20 pm | Readers 3937

A collated list for easy viewing and contacting. I have linked the candidates twitter accounts where I was able to find them. If a link is incorrect or broken, let me know. Also, if you know the twitter account of a candidate that I didn’t link to, apologies, it wasn’t easily found…get in touch and I’ll add it in. BELFAST EAST Ross Brown (Green Party) Naomi Long (Alliance) Mary Muldoon (SDLP)N Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Fein) Gavin Robinson …

Unionist Election Pact

Kris Nixon (Belfast Barman) on March 17, 2015, 7:45 pm | Readers 4156

The internet seems awash at the moment with the (fairly well substantiated) rumour that the DUP & UUP (or is it UUP & DUP…I wonder how many weeks they argued over the order) have agreed a pact involving four constituencies in the May 7th general election. Update – details now online in a press release from the DUP. NEWRY & ARMAGH – Both parties will support behind Danny Kennedy MLA FERMANAGH & SOUTH TYRONE – Both parties will support behind …

John McTernan: For Labour hope needs to beat fear

Soapbox on July 29, 2014, 1:09 pm | Readers 904

Next up in our 2015 general election series is former advisor John McTernan on what Labour needs to do to win next year. There is no real secret to winning elections. Be united, have popular ideas and connect to the public. As Ronald Reagan used to say, ‘It’s not easy, but it is simple.’ Against the odds, Ed Miliband has achieved the first, and done it effortlessly. After a lengthy and divisive leadership campaign – which he won …

Italy: “Unless of course all polls and projections so far turn out to be wrong …”

Pete Baker on February 25, 2013, 5:13 pm | Readers 63

They’re still counting the votes in Italy… But the early projections are contradicting exit polls predicting, as the Guardian reported, “strong support for alliance led by Pier Luigi Bersani’s Democratic party and bloody nose for Mario Monti”. Not contradicting the bloody nose for the Borg Mario Monti, that is. But Silvio Berlusoni’s centre-right alliance seems to be edging ahead in the Senate, at least… The Guardian is live-blogging the actual results as they come in. Here’s their latest post to date Before …

Is a general election imminent in the south?

Mick Fealty on October 17, 2010, 3:58 pm | Readers 5

The Sunday Business Post goes into some detail on the degree to which the Labour party seems to be getting ready for what looks like an historically high tide in the polls in the Republic. Even to the extent of running a conference on ‘winning the west’ where they have traditionally weak. More interesting is their Back Room column which speculates that in fact, the realists within Fianna Fail may already be calcutating that this could be the best moment …