Irish Republicanism needs to be more Levesque and a little less Salmond on a border poll

À la prochaine fois!, (until next time) declared the separatist premier, Rene Levesque as he conceded defeat on the night the 1980 Quebec sovereignty referendum failed. Standing like a proud general with his supporters weeping as their dream of an independent francophone Quebec went up in smoke, Levesque knew that while his objective of achieving sovereignty was over, he had run a respectable campaign and had garnered enough support (40%) to leave the movement an opportunity have another go at …

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“No one party or leader will unite this country…”

David McCann with a republican view on why Sinn Fein’s calls for a border poll in the near future are undermining any long game chances of achieving a unified island: The old republican strategy of ‘It doesn’t matter whether you win or lose but how you’ve played the game’ is precisely why we have achieved next to no success in ending partition. Instead of coming up with common sense proposals and some new thinking on what a united Ireland would …

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Ignoring the small issue of a border poll, what might a new united Ireland be like?

MLA Conall McDevitt

(This should have appeared early on Friday morning – until the gremlins got in the way.)

Last week, before the release of the BBC NI Spotlight poll, I talked to a local MLA about the concept of a new Ireland. Over the last few months there has been an increasing level of chatter analysing the mechanics of calling a border poll and interpreting census results.

Curiosity got the better of me and I decided to delve under the instinctive longing and loathing that is so often associated with the notion of a united Ireland to explore what the new state might look like if the conditions could ever be met to have a poll.

Much – though not all – of the commentary comes back to promoting a nationalist ideal of an El Dorado paradise or declaring the unionist nightmare of forcibly cutting ties to the British monarch.

Intellectually it’s a lot more interesting to get beyond the emotion and wonder … What if? What might be the shape of this potential state? How might the population in the north east corner relate to those in the south west? What governance arrangements might be put in place, or indeed left in place? What parts of Northern Ireland’s public sector and civil society would survive, or even thrive? How would the six counties integrate with the twenty six?

And while a poll may be a distant prospect, grasping the Presbyterian principle of ‘not refusing light from any quarter’ I wondered whether a Northern Ireland that is still settled in the Union had anything to learn from new Ireland thinking.

I’d heard Conall McDevitt, SDLP MLA for South Belfast, talking about the importance of region at an election event a couple of years ago, so I met up with him last week to pick his brains. We talked about identity, economy and his opinion of Sinn Féin’s “flag-waving” activity around the border poll. But first I asked about his vision of a united Ireland.

I think one of the great issues with the debate around the a border poll and in fact one of the great issues within both Irish unionism and Irish nationalism is that we have an awful habit of wanting to either remain in the union or to be in a united Ireland. But if we’re honest with ourselves we haven’t done a huge amount of work in trying to work through what that would look like (if you’re thinking about a united Ireland) or to consider the practical issues around it. How would you pay for it? What system of government might be best? Would it be a unitary state? Or would you have a federal Ireland?

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Spotlight Poll: A ‘crisis’ of widespread political mislabelling?

It says something about how little parties in Northern Ireland spend talking to their voters that last night’s findings (full data here) seem to have knocked all of the parties back on their heels last night. It was a bit like an old fashioned Dimbleby election night show only one where every single party had to spin some form of bad news as good. There were two facts that demonstrate that what we’ve been witnessing since early December is non …

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“a 65% to 17% majority for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK suggests little room for doubt.”

From the conversation on BBC NI Spotlight tonight there are challenges for all the political parties in the results of the polling by Ipsos Mori.  But here are the reported results on the constitutional question. Not surprisingly, more than 90% of those who identify themselves as Protestants told the pollsters they wanted to stay in the UK. But on the other side of the religious divide, a substantial 38% of Catholics also favoured remaining within the UK – three percentage …

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Exclusive: Ian Paisley’s belated acknowledgment of David Trimble’s legacy: the principle of Consent…

Now, this is interesting. No really, it is. And for a couple reasons. One is what it says. And two, though I am not sure whether it made the print edition of today’s Belfast News Letter, that it was only on the site for about a hour last night before it disappeared. It’s Doctor Paisley’s weekly column. And (thanks to an eagled-eyed reader) it makes for fascinating reading, especially for those of you who are historians of the peace process. …

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Sinn Fein’s ‘creative accountancy’ over funding the gap for a United Ireland

So, briefly, Newton Emerson gives us confirmation of what you probably already knew from listening to Gerry Adams talking to Tara Mills in last week’s big interview on Sinn Fein’s #BorderPoll. That is that the party’s figures simply do not add up. In yesterday’s Irish News he noted: It is true that DFP’s last report showed revenue rising to 12.7bn but the same report showed public spending rising to £23.2bn, so the £10bn gap remains. Mr Adams tried to muddy …

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Why a #BorderPoll ill-serves the cause of a united island

“I live in terror of not being misunderstood.” From The Critic as Artist, by Oscar Wilde So, what is a reasonable, even a Nationalist, objection to the calling of a Border Poll in the next parliamentary term north and south? The most obvious is that from what we know of the current public will in Northern Ireland, it will be lost. And why? Because what we know of the polling in this area already tells us that there is not …

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We could be entering an era of referendum politics. Will it be destructive or creative?

Sinn Fein’s very reason for existing requires that they will call for a border poll during the life time of the 2015-19 Assembly. The tactic is about more than bravado. SF can afford to lose one poll and yet do well enough for another to be called within the prescribed seven years. It might be thought that here is another example of a party refusing to accept the sectarian consequences of their politics.  But  do not doubt that Sinn Fein …

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Border Poll: On the one road, maybe the wrong road, on the road to god knows where?

The best bit from last night’s The View was undoubtedly Stephen Walker’s report on a future border poll. He usefully revisits the last one in 1973, which was about as bogus as they come. Just over 6000 people voted for taking Northern Ireland of the UK back then, because most nationalists boycotted it. The tenor of the criticism from both unionists and Fianna Fail on the matter is that this call is similarly bogus, in the sense it is after …

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That ol’ tune again

There’s talk of a triple-dip recession, unemployment is still scarily high, fiscal austerity is biting and we’re now talking about that again… Captions welcomed! Brian SpencerBrian is a writer, artist, political cartoonist and legal blogger. Actively tweeting from @brianjohnspencr. More information here: http://www.brianjohnspencer.com/ www.brianjohnspencer.com/

Aaron & Brian’s Sunday View: the Census

  The Irish Times led with, ‘There are just 54,000 more people from a Protestant background than from a Catholic one in Northern Ireland’. The headline figure, that most papers and the media noticed, was that the gap between Protestants and Catholics had narrowed to 3 per cent in the recent statistics released from the 2011 census. Bringing together the information on Religion and Religion Brought up in, 45 per cent of the population were either Catholic or brought up …

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“[The DUP] had come to terms with what it has done since 2003…”

So, why not. Let’s have another go at the Catholic Unionist trope that’s been doing the rounds. Gareth Gordon looks at the idea of Unionist Catholics, or unicorns as Alex Kane once put it. Of all the respondents in this piece, Steven McCaffrey of The Detail is the one that has it down pat. Robinson’s tactic is about switching nationalist voters off from voting for a united Ireland. Although according to one senior political source in the party that Slugger …

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Sinn Fein does not expect to win a border poll but would relish the opportunity for a public conversation…

listen to ‘Martina Anderson says republicans don’t believe a border poll now will bring about a united Ireland’ on Audioboo UUC Journalism student David Thompson interviewed Derry based Sinn Fein MLA Martina Anderson yesterday and got some very interesting and candid thoughts about the party’s position on the kind of border poll Gerry Adams called for at Gulladuff last weekend… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and …

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“We cannot impose; this has to come from within Northern Ireland.”

Nothing in politics, nor in life, is “inevitable” [except death and taxes! – Ed] Indeed.  That includes a “border poll” – despite the protestations of the former International Representative for West Belfast, then temporary Crown Steward, now Louth TD, and Sinn Féin president, Gerry Adams.  The Irish Times reports his latest outburst “A border poll is inevitable. Mr Patterson knows this. It is only a matter of timing,” said the Sinn Fein leader. “By definition that will come when the people of …

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Case for unification: “I sense that republicans don’t actually know the answer themselves”

On the subject of polls, I’d blogged Owen Paterson’s thoughts before Alex Kane’s column came online: My own view is that this is the perfect time for a referendum. Bring it on, in fact! In 1973 we never got the chance to have a proper debate about the realities, consequences and ramifications of Irish unity. As is so often the case the nationalists ran away from it. In one sense, of course, you can’t blame them for not wanting a …

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Owen Paterson: No popular demand for a border poll…

Owen Paterson, it seems, is not exactly inundated with letters, phone calls and emails looking for a border poll of the type Martin McGuinness was musing on a few weeks back… Last year, 73 per cent of respondents to an opinion poll in Northern Ireland said they wanted the region to remain a part of the UK. The Life and Times survey published in June 2011 found 52 per cent of Catholics living in Northern Ireland wanted the union to …

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