Border poll – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

UK breakup. The vacuum where the Union case should be stands exposed

Brian Walker on January 24, 2021, 12:07 pm

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Will the drum roll start for a border poll and wreck the prospects for even slim collaboration for dealing with the massive and more immediate challenges of Covid and Brexit – and just governing ? Or will it promote a virtuous competition between the DUP and Sinn Fein over which of them will be the better collaborator in government, with the hope of wooing the uncommitted to their existential cause? Will the minor parties get squeezed or flourish amid growing …

Real world pressures are complicating neat arguments over unification

Brian Walker on January 21, 2021, 11:49 am

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I begin with more inexplicable partitionism from Dublin, as discussed by Newton who has a hawkeye for this subject “Genuine mystery surrounds the Irish Government’s lengthy refusal to share Covid passenger data with Northern Ireland. The Government will not explain it and nobody else can see what the issue might be. There is increasing urgency for a solution as Britain, Ireland and Northern Ireland introduce negative Covid test requirements for travellers, with varying sets of self-isolation periods that cannot be …

George Osborne: Northern Ireland is already heading for the exit door…

Brian O'Neill on January 20, 2021, 8:56 am

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Former Chancellor, and now editor of The Evening Standard, George Osborne, has been writing about the potential break up of the Union. Not any more. By unleashing English nationalism, Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade. Northern Ireland is already heading for the exit door. By remaining in the EU single market, it is for all economic intents and purposes now slowly becoming part of a united Ireland. Its prosperity now …

Border Poll: Take Stormont off the table

Jay Burbank on January 19, 2021, 7:08 pm

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Strand one was the name given to the collective socio-legal structures of devolution and inter-community governance in Northern Ireland as part of the Good Friday Agreement. Unlike the North-South Ministerial Council (strand two) or the British-Irish council (strand three) it is the part of the agreement most relevant to and most recognised by the NI population. At its heart strand one is beyond the structural concerns of the Assembly and Executive, it is about the principle of subsidiarity so that …

Unionism Fighting a Border Poll…

Choyaa on January 17, 2021, 9:06 am

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There are two fixed rules within Unionism – (1) you do not talk about a ‘Border Referendum’ and (2) you do not talk about a ‘Border Referendum’. However, today I will break that cardinal rule and discuss how Unionism approaches such a referendum and what we can learn from the two recent big referendums, namely ‘Scottish Independence’ and ‘Brexit’. It’s difficult to hide that calls for a ‘Border Referendum’ have been growing in recent years. We may not be quite …

A more refreshing debate on Ireland’s future has just been ignited

Brian Walker on January 11, 2021, 11:58 am

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We are looking at a border poll within the next ten years, and reunification could happen within 20 years. I believe events will move a lot faster than any of us could ever envisage. Just look at Brexit, who could have predicted that five years ago? Brian O’Neill may be right or he may be wrong. But we need something more than speculation. A new debate has been ignited in the Irish Times. Prof Pete Shirlow goes for developing the …

Mary McAleese and Peter Robinson should lead a commission on reunification proposals…

Brian O'Neill on January 10, 2021, 12:42 pm

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Mary McAleese was on this week’s Sunday with Miriam show on RTE Radio 1. It was a reminder of what a class act she is, very sharp and well informed. Mary McAleese would have made a great Taoiseach or First Minister. If got me thinking about how we should make use of the considerable talents of our leaders who are no longer in office, but still have a lot to contribute to society. With the passing of Seamus Mallon and …

Nicola Sturgeon, the Angela Merkel of UK politics…

Brian O'Neill on December 10, 2020, 7:33 am

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In this week’s Spectator Magazine, Alex Massie has a profile of Nicola Sturgeon. Being a Conservative Unionist publication, The Spectator has no love for the SNP. But there was grudging respect for the popularity of the First Minister of Scotland and her almost Donald Trump levels of Teflon. Nicola Sturgeon is seen by the public as the perfect counterweight to the blustering, bumbling Boris Johnston. From the article: But in modern Scotland, relative success counts for more than absolute success. …

Confronting the issues of organising Unity referendums. Academics in London, Dublin and Belfast show the way. Will the politicians follow?

Brian Walker on December 1, 2020, 1:24 pm

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In addressing the existential core of politics north and south in Ireland, a working group of academics has laboured long on grappling with the issues on Referendums on Irish unity and delivered a modest proposal in the form of an “interim report”. But unlike Swift’s biting satire, theirs is an impeccably rational approach to procedural issues and the broad context for holding twin if not quite simultaneous referendums. They recommend as best option a model of what unity would look …

Why is the UK sleepwalking into final Brexit chaos and towards breakup?

Brian Walker on July 17, 2020, 2:40 pm

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As the notional deadline of October for final Brexit negotiations draws ever closer, the clouds if anything are growing darker. The UK’s statements on their withdrawal position and the NI protocol have clarified very little. Johnson and co seem like General de Gaulle in 1940, holding out for an impossible position of victory against the odds. But at least de Gaulle had allies. A City University webinar I linked up with yesterday confirmed growing pessimism over Northern Ireland prospects.( video …

Complacent Assumptions vs Political Reality: a border poll is not inevitable…

Hugo on April 16, 2020, 6:50 am

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Following the vote for Brexit in 2016, a persistent media drumbeat has highlighted the enhanced likelihood of a future border poll – a referendum for a United Ireland. Many Irish nationalists, noting the changing demographics and loss of Unionism’s political majority, have already priced it in. But is this assumption complacent, and if it does happen what are the consequences? The key to unlocking a border poll is the view of the people who live in Northern Ireland (the Republic …

There’s more to it than polling. Ireland needs more than one choice of political future.

Brian Walker on March 9, 2020, 6:57 pm

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Although Irish unity has been a common obsession for more a century we can only marvel at how little it has been considered as a realistic proposition. In the Republic Sinn Fein’s surge at the general election has promoted it to a higher but still uncertain place in an agenda preoccupied with economic reform. In the GFA, the issue was from the start insulated from what really mattered at the time, the winning of the peace and the effective operation …

On key issues, the general election survey shows the uncommitted or don’t knows are growing in number

Brian Walker on March 7, 2020, 11:12 am

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Mick has dug deep for his reflections into the Northern Ireland general election survey commissioned by Liverpool University’s Institute of Irish Studies and conducted by Social Market Research (SMR). In this piece I wrote before I logged into Slugger (and I frankly don’t want to waste it) I gnaw more at the bone of opinion on unity. The survey and its questions surely show how sensitive to events is general opinion and how volatile the events affecting long lasting themes. …

Opinion on a border poll “on a knife edge” – the latest from The Detail

Brian Walker on February 24, 2020, 1:28 pm

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Here we go again. Just a bit of cross posting here to draw attention m to a special edition of The Detail, about a border poll. The comment is based a Lucid Talk opinion poll conducted north and south, showing opinion “ on a knife edge” – 46.8% to stay in the UK and 45.4 % for a United Ireland. The disparity now among three polls in succession can partly be accounted for by different methodology, this one on line, …

‘Brexit means that Northern Ireland’s constitutional future has become an issue for Europe’, says Denis Bradley

Paul Gosling on July 19, 2019, 7:01 am

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Denis Bradley was keen to move on in the latest Forward Together podcast interview to discuss the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. “Well that’s the one that intrigues me because I don’t know the answer!,” he says. “First of all I think something very important happened within the last couple of weeks and has not received attention. And that is that the Europeans have said if there a no deal situation we will still have to deal with the Northern …

No Deal would mean ” a blockade” of Northern Ireland. Is anybody listening? Does anybody care?

Brian Walker on June 15, 2019, 2:43 pm

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David Sterling, head of the Northern Ireland civil service Tony Connelly RTE’s ace Europe editor, has pulled together in its full awfulness the impact of No Deal on the Northern Ireland economy, amounting “to a full blockade.” Clearly well briefed by officials in Belfast, Dublin and Brussels, the message isn’t getting through in London where it matters most at the moment. Just consider this for a wee opener…. When the original exit date of 29 March approached, officials fretted that …

‘Let’s create an all-island, integrated, health service, and let’s begin now’

Paul Gosling on May 31, 2019, 7:00 am

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There needs to be an all-island, integrated, health service, and its creation should not be dependent upon the agreement or timing of a united Ireland, argues Professor Jim Dornan – one of the architects of existing cross-border co-operation in health services. Jim was interviewed in the latest Forward Together podcast. “In many ways Ireland is a Goldilocks sized country for health provision,” he explains. “We can cherry pick the best of health provision throughout the world and let’s introduce it …

Border poll ferment hits a high spot in the Euros exit poll

Brian Walker on May 25, 2019, 8:18 pm

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The Red C exit poll records an astounding result on Irish Unity – so amazing that it’s presented as tucked in after another positive result on the Irish language, as if they don’t quite believe it. Newton tweets Support for a united Ireland rises as support for Sinn Fein falls. Perhaps the southern electorate is more sophisticated on this point than it gets credit for. What’s happening to them down there, so drunk with euphoria about what a terrific …

Synthesis

Andrew Gallagher on March 1, 2019, 5:47 pm

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In my previous post I outlined the various models available for a sovereign Ireland – a unitary state, asymmetric devolution, federalism and a confederal union. Asymmetric devolution is unstable and inequitable, while federalism is too heavy for such a small country as Ireland. That leaves a unitary state and a confederal union as the only serious options, and each involves a different set of compromises. A unitary state is more efficient, more equitable and arguably simpler in its daily operation; …

The escape hatch

Andrew Gallagher on February 28, 2019, 6:30 pm

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Mike Nesbitt states plainly what should by now be painfully obvious. With Brexit, Unionism has shot itself in the foot, and many people are now quietly contemplating the previously unthinkable. But this has merely upped the ante for those who advocate constitutional change. Appealing to nationalists, he said: “If you’re going to have a border poll…don’t let it be like Brexit. Before there’s a border poll it has to be spelled out in enormous detail – and truthfully, unlike Brexit …