McGuinness and #Aras11: A brief afterword…

I think it was Eamonn McCann who said it is almost impossible to dislike Martin McGuinness once you’ve met him. I fully concur. The last time I met him was in Stormont, and when he saw me he rose from his chair, strode across the Long Gallery to warmly shake my hand. That kind of emotionally intelligent instinct is political gold, and is one reason why McGuinness has lifted honours in the last two Slugger Awards. It’s also a critical …

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McGuinness and the unintended messages of #Aras11

One SF member I spoke to when trying to ascertain whether Martin McGuinness was going to run for the Irish Presidency, dismissed it honestly by suggesting it would ‘send the wrong message’. I’m not sure if the message picked up by Malachi O’Doherty was the one he had in mind, but for once it concerns what it means for Northern Ireland rather than the south: McGuinness comes back looking either like a failed candidate who would rather be somewhere else, …

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Sinn Fein’s increase was “an average of a mere 37 votes a constituency”

I’ve just been talking to Ian Parsley, who sounded a somewhat sceptical note on the effective crippling of Sean Gallagher on Frontline last Monday. It remains a great moment of television without a doubt, but Ian wonders if it was more like the Sheffield rally was for Neil Kinnock, whose stock was already on the fall by the time of his jumping the shark… In fact, there is a slightly counter intuitive narrative doing the rounds that the effect of …

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Bogus Twitter accounts, plausible deniability, and the use of unqualified leads…

As Chris notes, no one in current Sinn Fein will cry any tears over the way the Irish media tripped over itself to gobble up the fake story of Sean Gallagher and the cheque that never was… Update: It seems that the @Martin4Prez2011 (official) & @McGuinness4Pres (bogus) were born on the same day. But, as noted by Stewart below (and missed by me), the official account begins to tweet *2 days after* the parody. Which is odd. Update to the …

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Lab + SF = FF + FG + 18.4%: #aras11 warm down

Presidential elections don’t tend to tear the space-time fabric of Irish politics. But as mood shifts, Mary Robinson and Mary McAleese both managed to encapsulate subtle moves away from the manichean nonsense of patrician Catholic ‘civil war’ politics south of the border. The soon to be returned 9th President, Michael D,  will happily cite them as examples of why any judgement on him should be deferred to hindsight. At least he won’t be burdened by the dire forecasts that the 8th President carried into office with her. While …

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#Aras11: How the Press got it wrong on Gallagher (and failed to admit it)

Whilst it was perfectly legitimate to probe Martin McGuinness on his paramilitary past in the course of a Presidential election the key reason (character) for doing so was rarely crystalised by the many good journalists who did so. To be blunt, you cannot make political murder a reason for not taking office in state that was founded on killing and rebellion, no matter how many columns of outrage get printed in the Sunday Independent. You can make lying about it …

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#Aras11: Sinn Fein’s pathfinder election?

Sinn Fein’s unique politbureau leadership and ownership structure (effectively the party rather than the state that sets the terms of employment for their ‘public’ representatives) gives it a capacity to engage long term strategies that’s impractical for other more conventionally democratic parties. Thus the current leadership is already twenty six years in place and pre dates the party’s wholehearted and exclusive commitment to democracy. Occasions that might have proven fatal to another party’s leadership, for example, the Irish general election …

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For that reason, Sean, I’m out: #aras11 injury time.

Sean Gallagher, the Fianna Fáil independent candidate who has been leading the latter stages of the #aras11 race must be hoping that the finishing lines comes as quickly as possible. Martin McGuinness presided over a a very public unfolding of Gallagher’s memory of collecting donations for Fianna Fáil on the final debate on Frontline last night (although no-one seems to have noticed that he had instant recall of the individual he claimed to have had no memory of seconds before). This included a dreadful gaffe in referring to an …

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Aras11: Advantage Fianna Fail?

The Irish Times has what looks like a fairly definitive take on the race for the Aras: The big news from the poll is the continued surge in support for Mr Gallagher. He has doubled his level of support despite the media focus over the past week on his role in Fianna Fáil and, potentially more damaging, the controversy surrounding some of his business dealings. Mr Gallagher is now the favoured choice of Fianna Fáil voters and that has given …

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#Aras11: Michael D still attracting the smart money on Betfair…

Interesting to see in advance of any further polls that Sean Gallagher’s growth spurt has finished almost as soon as it began… Polls test public opinion, the bookies go for opinion on the final outcome… Betfair currently has the following odds: That’s Higgins still as firm favourite 3/1 on, and Gallagher as decent outsider on 3/1 against… Martin McGuinness could be a very profitable outside bet at 28/1 (better odds than Paddy Power is offering at the moment)… I’ve no …

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#Aras11: Nordies need not apply, the party’s over…

I’ve heard it said in some quarters that quietly, there’s some considerable animus shown southerners in Northern Ireland. It’s not the old sectarian, ‘hey are you from Dublin, whip you off the street and take you to a house just off the lower Shankill’ sort of thing. It’s more of the ‘what the hell would you know’ sort of prejudice. And, I guess, some of that inevitably flows the other way too. At least that’s what Davy Adams argues in …

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After all they did, are FF set to win #aras11?

After all they did, are Fianna Fáil going to win the Presidential election? Or, perhaps as pertinently, are the media going to win it for them? While Mick suggests that they are right to protest that Gallagher is not their ‘dog without a collar’, the limited ability of the media to amass any significant details of Gallagher’s Fianna Fáil CV is in contrast to the detail being presented on the other candidates (with the obvious exception of Michael D). Gallagher …

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Quick everyone, get Sean Gallagher (although it may already be too late)…

Here’s the latest from the #Aras11 horse race. It seems the, erm, Independent candidate for Sinn Fein (aka, the firmly established once and future Deputy First Minister), is accusing another Independent candidate of, erm, not being Independent. There is some grist to that mill, of course… Thanks to Suzy for this clip of Gallagher speaking at a meeting of Fianna Fail Ogra at Queens in Belfast (along with, it has to be said, with the likes of Elaine Byrne, who …

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#Aras11 Round up: The “And Then There Were Two” Edition

This is the first presidential election in some fourteen years…  And its been a bit of a roller coaster… Not least for Martin McGuinness who’s odds have burned from 3/1 in September out to 25/1 now (or 16/1 on Betfair in a market of £125k)… So here’s our third round up on #Aras11: – Martina Devlin ignored a rather large and inconvenient chunk of Northern Irish constitutional history to suggest that little social social had been undertaken before the 1989 Fair Employment Act …

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Was Micheal Martin the only ‘sane’ one, refusing to get involved in #Aras11?

The front page of The Phoenix sums up the orgy of self destruction the Irish Presidential race is becoming… ‘De Nile’ is not just a river in Africa… On Twitter, Frank FitzGibbon of the Irish edition of the Sunday Times summed up last night’s Prime Time debate, rather succinctly… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events …

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Dennis Naughten (and da yoof) for Sean Gallagher?

Denis Naughten stood in March for Fine Gael in Roscommon/South Leitrim… now judging by his Facebook page, he’s the new Roscommon Hospital candidate, and a quiet fan of Sean Gallagher…. Hmmm… Hoovering up the rural youth vote Sean? Now if only the under tens had a vote… Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, …

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Michael D, the Government candidate: entitlement and #aras11.

This evening saw the latest in the seemingly endless set-piece ‘debates’ between the Presidential candidates. And it showed up the first significant flaw in the campaign of Michael D Higgins, who has, by and large, been alone in being given a free run in the media thus far. Tonight’s debate was chaired by Matt Cooper and broadcast live on Today FM (you can catch up on it by listening back to The Last Word from today on here). The clamour for US-style debates in Irish and British electoral campaigns began a few years ago but …

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Sinn Fein haven’t ruled out a McGuinness victory, but…

One of the more revealing pieces of journalism on the Aras race this week was in Irish, and quoted in our latest round up… It’s provides a brief insight into Sinn Fein’s thinking re the election: Nil sé as an cheist go mbainfeadh Martin Mc Guinness toghchán na hUachtaránachta ach tá siad sin cheana féin ag iarraidh a bheith cinnte de go rachaidh an dul chun cinn atá ag titim amach anois chun tairbhe an pháirtí sa chéad olltoghchán eile. …

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Seán Gallagher, a Fianna Fáil member in the #aras11 race?

Having managed to mostly fly below the radar, it will be interesting to see if Seán Gallagher, now having shown well enough in the opinion polls, suddenly comes under tighter focus. On RTE, he finally put to bed some of the issues around his membership of Fianna Fáil today. Well, actually, as it turns out, he didn’t, as David Cochrane, over at politics.ie, has adroitly pointed out. It seems that Gallagher’s resignation from the National Executive of Fianna Fáil was only in January this year (p.ie has …

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#Aras11 Round Up: The Long and Short Game Edition…

Okay, lots of analysis to catch up on… Stephen Collins in the Irish Times, notes the difference between revelation and smears, and the doomed bid by Fine Gael hopeful Gay Mitchell… By focusing on McGuinness’s past, Mitchell helped to ensure the public knows as much as possible about the Sinn Féin candidate. McGuinness’s calm response to the charges against him may have impressed people, but one way or another the controversy has ensured voters won’t go to the polls in …

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