#AE16

Micheal Martin: Enormous potential on both sides of the Border being spurned…

Mick Fealty on April 18, 2016, 2:57 pm

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So it may be telling that in a fairly lacklustre campaign so far the first heated exchange is between Arlene Foster and Micheal Martin of Fianna Fail. Martin’s speech at Arbour Hill yesterday, when he attacked not just Sinn Fein but the DUP… The Good Friday Agreement which we played a central part in negotiating gave us all an opportunity to build not just an absence of war but also lasting reconciliation and development. This opportunity is being wasted. We …

#AE16 East Belfast: DUP to come home with three courtesy of a splitting PUP base…

Mick Fealty on April 18, 2016, 2:26 pm

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Candidates: [DUP] Joanne Bunting, Sammy Douglas, Robin Newton; [Alliance] Naomi Long, Chris Lyttle, Tim Morrow; [UUP] Andy Allen, Chris McGimpsey; [PUP] John Kyle; [TUV] Andrew Girvin; [UKIP] Jonny Lavery; [Greens] Ross Brown; [Sinn Fein] Niall Ó Donnghaile; [SDLP] Amy Doherty; [NI Conservatives] Neil Wilson; [Cross-Community Labour Alternative] Courtney Robinson; [NILRC] Erskine Holmes; [Independent] Maggie Hutton. East Belfast has the fifth-lowest population of any constituency in Northern Ireland, and the most Protestant. It also has the lowest proportion of school leavers …

On The Doors: UUP & SDLP Manifestos plus the UTV Debate

David McCann on April 18, 2016, 12:33 pm

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Week Two of the On The Doors podcast with Irish News political correspondent, John Manley and former NUS-USI President, Adrianne Peltz. This week we discussed the launch of the UUP and SDLP manifestos as well as, the impact of the UTV debate. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs

Is Education the Number One Priority for Unionism this Election?

st etienne on April 18, 2016, 12:31 pm

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Education, Education, Education. There have been 3 Assembly Executives elected since 1998. At each juncture, a unionist First Minister was elected and subsequently under d’Hondt a unionist was given first choice of available ministries. Each time control of the Education ministry fell to a Sinn Fein MLA – whether they were the 4th, or the 2nd, largest party. If SF should emerge the largest in the executive post May elections, they may well opt once again for the Education post. …

Can a Unionist win in West Belfast?

David McCann on April 14, 2016, 10:41 pm

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When we think about West Belfast in this election, the focus generally goes to Gerry Carroll, Sinn Fein and the SDLP. But there is another contender for one of the final seats and that is the DUP’s Frank McCoubrey. Tonight I was invited out on the canvass with the candidate and the party’s deputy leader, Nigel Dodds. A team of 10 canvassers covered more than several hundred houses over two and half hours of pounding the streets. Before we began, …

#AE16 Newry Armagh: Despite a couple of long shots, incumbency should have it…

Mick Fealty on April 14, 2016, 6:22 am

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BRIDGE TOO FAR: Tantalising ‘possibilities’. My money is on an ‘as you were’ return. Two UUP, Two SDLP and Two SF is not beyond possibility. But without some redefining air campaign, the logistics of SDLP’s ground operation may be running at too a great a stretch to bring home the bacon.

LIVE BLOG of the #AE16 Leader’s Debate from 8pm

Mick Fealty on April 13, 2016, 7:53 pm

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LIVE DEBATE: The first Northern Ireland leader’s debate goes out on UTV at 8pm tonight. David will be publishing a summary of the debate at the end, but for now you can follow the highlights here on Slugger. I’ve enabled the commenting facility so please do join in here on Slugger or on the live blog itself.

#AE16 East Antrim: One UKIPer in, one Sinn Feiner and one DUPer out?

Mick Fealty on April 13, 2016, 2:44 pm

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FLEGS AND EUROSCEPTICS: Both UKIP and UUP could benefit from the DUP’s arch Eurosceptic poll topper Sammy Wilson’s departure to Westminster, whilst a key problem for Sinn Fein’s McMullan is the new differential in turnout between unionism and nationalism generated by the flag dispute.

SDLP launch their plan for government or a play book for opposition?

David McCann on April 13, 2016, 12:49 pm

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Two days ago the SDLP ventured West of the Bann to Dungannon for the launch of their manifesto for the 2016 Assembly election. The party was pledging a radical and ambitious plan for the next five years and this is the first opportunity that the SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood has to stamp his policy direction on the party. The full 49 page document is available here for you to read, but here are some of the key bits I found …

Welcome to the Northern Ireland Labour Representation Committee party?

Mick Fealty on April 13, 2016, 11:19 am

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So as our profiles continue, we’ll have a new party and candidates to the roster. Having patiently waited at the back of the UK Labour bus for years, Labour party members are to form their own breakaway group and stand candidates in Northern Ireland. Sam McBride has the details… The party leader, journalist and author Kathryn Johnston, told the News Letter that there had been a huge increase in party membership in recent times. Labour now has 1,200 members in …

#AE16 West Tyrone: Could Nationalist squabbling and the ‘Arlene factor’ open a second for the DUP?

Mick Fealty on April 12, 2016, 5:32 pm

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SIXTH SEAT CONTEST: The DUP need a better-balanced ticket than they managed last time, plus an ‘Arlene Factor’ to nick a second seat from the UUP. As for the nationalism, if McCrossan has independent troubles, so does Sinn Fein, giving them more limited scope for taking an SDLP seat than in 2010.

#AE16 North Down: UUP’s co-option of Chambers could be the deciding factor

Mick Fealty on April 12, 2016, 1:19 pm

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Candidates: [DUP] Alex Easton, Gordon Dunne, Peter Weir. [UUP] Alan Chambers, Chris Eisenstadt, Carl McClean. [Alliance] Stephen Farry, Andrew Muir. [Greens] Steven Agnew. [SDLP] Conal Browne. [UKIP] Bill Piper. [TUV] John Brennan. [NI Conservatives] Frank Shivers; [Sinn Fein] Therese McCartney. [Independent] Brian Wilson. This largely middle class, and largely Protestant constituency hugs the southern shoreline of the Belfast Lough and around Orlock Point to Donaghadee. At 11.83%, it has the highest number designating as no religion. Male life expectancy is 78.5, rising to 82.2 in women. In …

SDLP’s manifesto hits opponents with actual social policy 48 hours before UTV Debate…

Mick Fealty on April 12, 2016, 7:24 am

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I’ll leave the rest of the manifesto details to others on the team, but it is worth noting that the SDLP’s launch was much crisper and clearer than normal. This time, by contrast with past documents, the clarity of just one or two points got serious media cut through. They clearly loved the Good Start proposal: an old IPPR policy brought in by New Labour as a softener for the introduction of university fees. £250 may not sound like much …

Third ‘rebel without a cause’ resigns in one of the SDLP’s sure fire #AE16 constituencies…

Mick Fealty on April 11, 2016, 5:07 pm

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So the SDLP holdouts in West Tyrone have a third defector: timed, presumably, for maximum disruption of the party’s manifesto launch this morning. Last week the party’s campaign launch was the target. Joanne Donnelly, from the Omagh end of what’s a rather disparate constituency, is the youngest and the latest councillor to leave. It’s not clear either from the MSM reporting or the various statements what it’s all about. Here’s the party’s statement: “These issues are difficult. We’re a democratic party, we’ve had two selection conventions …

On The Doors Podcast; Ep 1, Week 1

David McCann on April 9, 2016, 3:22 pm

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Over the next four weeks, the Irish News political correspondent, John Manley and myself will be conducting a video podcast called “On The Doors” looking back over the week that was in politics. Episode One is out today & we were joined by the commentator, Adrianne Peltz. This week, we looked at trouble in the SDLP & Sinn Fein in West Tyrone, the DUP manifesto and the UUP going to Dublin to examine the Easter Rising. Our thanks go to the …

Northern Ireland: When was it founded?

David McCann on April 6, 2016, 1:06 pm

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A policy proposal in the DUP manifesto has started a little of debate over just when Northern Ireland came into existence. In today’s Irish News, John Manley talks with Eamon Phoenix and whilst he dismisses the DUP date of 5th May as inaccurate, he still does not have a concrete date for the foundation of Northern Ireland. Speaking to Manley he said; There is no reason to mark May 3 – or May 5 for that matter, He continued going through …

Two SDLP Councillors resign from the party in West Tyrone.

David McCann on April 5, 2016, 8:53 am

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The SDLP are launching their election campaign this morning and they have some bad news greeting leader, Colum Eastwood as the BBC’s Gareth Gordon tweets; SDLP councillors Josephine Deehan& @PatsyKellySDLP resign and will stand as indsocial democrats in W Tyrone. Blow for @columeastwood — Gareth Gordon (@BBCGarethG) April 5, 2016 Ryan McAleer from the Ulster Herald follows up with; StrabanecllrPatsy Kelly and OmaghcllrJo Deehanhave blamed “unconstitutionalpractices and cronyism” within @SDLPlive locally. #AE16 — Ryan McAleer(@RyanMcAleerUH) April 5, 2016 John Manley …

DUP launch Arlene’s Plan for Northern Ireland

David McCann on April 4, 2016, 2:18 pm

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AAA: ALL ABOUT ARLENE; The first of the major parties out of the traps with their manifesto was the DUP this morning, who on the Shankill Road in West Belfast (a key DUP target seat) set out their policies for the next five years and focused heavily on their party leader, Arlene Foster. I thought I would go through the 31 page document and highlight some of the key bits. The first thing that catches your eye is that it really is the triple A factor-All About Arlene. This is clearly Arlene’s plan and vision and the party must be hearing on the doors that she is a key electoral asset for them.

May’s #AE16 could be a precursor to a more open and competitive contest in 2020…

Mick Fealty on March 29, 2016, 12:33 pm

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Apart from in West Belfast, there’s not currently much in the ‘big politics’ column for the elections in May. The Lucid Talk figures are remarkably stable (it’s a relatively stable methodology), which doesn’t suggest there’s any kind of democratic tumult. In unionism, there’s speculation about who’ll get Basil McCrea’s seat, his former partner, John McCallister looks set to be squeezed out in a tough three-way battle for two Unionist quotas in South Down, and in East Londonderry Claire Sugden faces …

Candidates from the parties in #ae16

David McCann on March 24, 2016, 2:19 pm

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A few people have gotten in touch with us to ask if it is possible to get a list of candidates running in this years Assembly election. In the spirit of being a public service, I thought I would compile a list of candidates running for each party in the Assembly. If I have missed anybody let me know and I will add them. NOTE- Constituencies left blank means that the party has just not nominated a candidate yet DUP …