Why everything you’ve ever heard on the Northern Irish constitutional question is wrong…

orchestra playing their piece

“…we don’t so much get our predictions wrong as make predictions about the wrong things”. – Ben Evans, via Memex 1.1. Like queuing for paper tickets for space trips once imagined in 1950s sci-fi, confident predictions of a near term border poll miss the fact that the future will track through possibilities adjacent to the present, not a linear projection of that present. Before I get to what I want to say, let me be clear about what I’m not …

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A do-nothing Programme for a do-nothing Executive

A couple of weeks back, the sixth Northern Ireland Executive released its draft Programme for Government. Coming over six months after the Executive was formed in February, following a gap in office of around two years, a naive observer might have had high hopes for this document, especially given that, during the election campaign in 2022, most of the parties talked up a good game about getting the government up and running.  The UUP manifesto said : it is vital …

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Michelle O’Neill addresses Ard Fheis for the first time as First Minister

Michelle O’Neill took the stage of the 2024 Ard Fheis for the first time as First Minister. The party’s strong results in Northern Ireland have been a bright spot in a difficult political year, and O’Neill’s personal ratings remain high eight months into the job. O’Neill’s speech touched upon issues dear to her base: Casement Park and Irish language rights. O’Neill referenced the need for Irish unity and tried to set out how the change narrative in Northern Ireland could …

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UUP: Clear policy grounded in a strategic direction would increase the possibility that commitment will follow

A small bird perched on top of a tree branch

A lot of cheap shots are being taken at the Ulster Unionist Party as its latest travails are exposed. Previous comments of ‘warring tribes’, ‘impossible to lead ‘, of pseudo religious, cultural and political powerplays, all of which present, are mined to dismiss the UUP as a serious political party; incapable of providing constructive, creative and competent leadership even within its own membership. For too many years, it has struggled, often in a meandering fashion to do so. Its internal …

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It is not enough to be non-racist; you have to be anti-racist.

garden fork near burning wood during daytime

I have just arrived home from attending an anti-racism rally in Guildhall Square, Derry-Londonderry. A few ideologues took the opportunity to platform their mantra but for the most part speakers followed the lead of current SDLP mayor, Lillian Seenoi Barr in refuting lazy stereotypical views regarding the major contribution that migrants who have come here to seek a better life, make to our economy, health and education sectors. I have personal experience of the healthcare provided by skilled practitioners from …

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After the election, why is Nationalist turn out continuing to drop like a stone?

red Radio Flyer trike on brown dried leaves

For all the breathless talk of movement towards a border poll, constitutionally the recent elections changed absolutely nothing. Nationalism came back with 9, MPs whilst the number of non nationalist MPs was also nine. Exactly the same as last time. Anyone claiming the movement towards Alliance is constitutionally significant when the seats lost and won are North Down and Lagan Valley should understand Alliance is at its liveliest where religious integration is at its highest, which is in the east. …

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UTV Election Debate: A win for Eastwood with Long and Robinson taking aim at one another

Representatives from the five main parties gathered at UTV today in the first local debate ahead of the General Election on July 4th. John Finucane for Sinn Fein, Colum Eastwood for the SDLP, Naomi Long for the Alliance Party, Robbie Butler for the UUP, and Gavin Robinson for the DUP. The debate was divided into three themes: influence at Westminster, Executive finances and a border poll. An interesting aspect of the debate was some of the participants’ different and laid-back …

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Results suggest Sinn Féin’s ‘inflection point’ (and a UI) remain some way off

a full moon shines in the sky over the ocean

Regardless of how you cut it, one of the big stories of the southern locals was Sinn Féin’s failure to break through, again. In order to understand why more than 2o0 SF candidates failed to gain a council seat it’s worth noting the poll ratings at the start: 🚨 IREUKmedia EXIT POLL for the #LE2024: 🟢 Sinn Fein: 199 (+118)🔵 Fine Gael: 180 (-75)🟩 Fianna Fail: 142 (-137)🌱 Green Party: 28 (-21)🔴 Labour: 47 (-10)⚫️ Independents/Other: 246 (+61)🟣 Social Democrats: …

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Why does nationalism run away from Irish Unity at election time ?

Shortly after the announcement of the general election, I noted over in Scotland that both the SNP and Alba (Alex Salmond’s hardline pro-independence breakaway) were straight out of the blocks, seeking a mandate for Scottish independence. SNP leader John Swinney characterised polling day, July 4th, as “Independence Day”. In a press release which mentions the word “independence” seven times, he said : .. So let’s unite to win the powers of independence to strengthen our economy, tackle the cost of …

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Is it time to give up on power sharing as a bad job ?

A couple of weeks back I wrote about whether or not the time had come for Alliance to adopt a constitutional position (TL;DR – it hasn’t). As is typical of articles that touch on the constitutional issue, there were quite a few comments, most of which spectacularly avoided the point and tended to rehash boring talking points and clichés from the 1970s. But there were several fair remarks which merit further discussion, so I thought I’d start with the most …

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Alliance : time to get off the fence ? 

Some weeks ago I noted with interest the outcome of the University of Liverpool survey into the makeup of the Alliance Party membership base and their views on constitutional matters, finding that a larger number of members believe that Irish unity should occur in the future.  The title of this piece refers to an old cliché, which I’ve heard since 1994, that the party are a bunch of fence-sitters. More recently I’ve been hearing “constitutional change is coming and Alliance …

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After Donaldson the question remains: how do we feed future generations of those who live in Northern Ireland?

aerial view of boat on water

As a Manchester City fan of many years standing (myself and just two others in Primary went blue when everyone else was going red) I know a rapid change in managers is not a sign of good health. After many years of stability at the top the DUP is experiencing that sort of bewilderment you get when nothing you try quite sticks. It’s been a rough ride since Peter Robinson stepped down. In spite of the drastic reasons for the …

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Political stability? Keep it a secret…

grayscale photo of woman doing silent hand sign

The media coverage – and some political reaction – to the DUP’s vote on the extension of a new EU law to Northern Ireland was very telling, if predictable. Overall the vote and its implications were no big deal. The importance was but it was part of the agreement between HMG and Jeffrey Donaldson that got Stormont back in action. Therefore it was important that the DUP used the opportunity it presented to weaken the destructive and flat earth pronouncements …

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Justice Colton and the Limitations of ‘Reconciliation’

sunflower field under blue sky during sunset

Brian Walker recently commented on Mr Justice Colton’s intervention in the legacy debate – namely his judgment on 28 February in the High Court on a batch of cases seeking judicial review of the 2023 Legacy Act. Brian argued that that 200-page judgment ought to be understood with reference to ‘the basic purpose of the whole enterprise … the key word is “reconciliation”’. This is undoubtedly correct, but assessing peace and justice according to reconciliation is, I suggest, seriously tendentious …

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The past, present and future of cross-border rail

Enterprise crossing Craigmore Viaduct near Bessbrook

Recently, to great fanfare, the Irish government announced an €800m funding package in support of its Shared Island strategy aimed at funding public spending on projects in Northern Ireland. The lion’s share of the spend is on the A5 project, and that, together with Casement, is where most of the media attention went. However, there is also an allocation aimed at increasing the frequency of cross border rail services. Before looking at this in detail we should talk a little …

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#APNI24 looking for reform and growth at Westminster

Alliance gathered for their annual conference in the Stormont Hotel in East Belfast. 400 delegates heard their leaders pitch for reform of the institutions and the upcoming Westminster elections. I have attended every Alliance conference since 2014 and this is one of the most upbeat and energetic that I have witnessed. The party’s local election saw growth but unlike, Sinn Fein, it was a mixed bag with losses in some places and failure to break through in others. The Deputy …

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“a striking manifestation of the confidence and optimism of the shared island initiative…”

bridge, autumn, nature

As recently as November Irish News columnist Brian Feeney wrote a column under the heading to the effect that “The Irish government and Fianna Fáil have no policy at all on the north”. [Ahem – Ed] Well, the secret of politics is in the timing. In a year that will see elections on both island’s Micheál Martin’s brainchild the Shared Island Initiative has finally made people sit up and take notice. The initiative was launched in 202o and by the …

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The end of a series

The latest series of Holywell Conversations podcasts began with reflections on the Good Friday Agreement, amidst fears that Northern Ireland’s devolution was over, and that series has now completed at a time when government has actually resumed. Over the series’ 18 episodes two themes have been examined – the challenges holding back reconciliation within our society, and the specific problems that continue to face the North West region. In the first episode, we heard from three people at the table …

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The Belfast Summit takes place on the 15th February 2024…

An event next month at Ulster University will put Belfast City Centre – good, bad and open to improvement – under the spotlight. The main draw to the Belfast Summit, organised by communications, public affairs and research specialists MW Advocate, is Professor Carlos Moreno – the creator of the 15-minute city concept and the man who is the driving force behind Paris’s regeneration plan. Organisers are hoping to stimulate and facilitate a conversation to examine how Belfast can become one of Europe’s leading small …

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