Michael Hehir – Slugger O'Toole

Voting, border poll, and NI’s future: What the non-committed think…

Michael Hehir on September 18, 2024, 7:13 am

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a pedestrian crossing sign on the side of the road

In a fascinating article in Irish Political Studies, Jon Tonge and Thomas Loughran draw on survey evidence to examine the attitudes of those who do not identify as nationalists or unionists, whom Tonge and Loughran dub the “neithers”. It is frequently noted that this group would hold the “casting vote” in any future constitutional referendum. Beyond unionism and nationalism: do the ‘neithers’ want a border poll and a United Ireland? (tandfonline.com) Details on the survey’s methodology are given at the …

Exciting poll. Beware!

Michael Hehir on August 24, 2024, 12:32 pm

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a statue of a person holding a tree branch

Today’s LucidTalk poll in the Belfast Telegraph certainly makes interesting reading. Or if you are Gavin Robinson horrifying reading. It says he has lost a quarter of the party’s voters since taking the DUP leadership. How worried should he be? Before we answer that question let’s look at the poll in detail. Once again Sinn Féin are the leading party with a support level which has been highly consistent over the last two years. At an Assembly election this would …

Westminster election final roundup: How did the polls fare, and is there a silver lining for the DUP?

Michael Hehir on August 23, 2024, 5:10 pm

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Big Ben, London

A new LucidTalk poll is due this weekend. Before it is published I would like to look at what clues the Westminster election might hold for us on the status of the parties nearly half way to the next Assembly election. Then I take a look at how well the pollsters did in that election. Tactical voting makes a real mess of any attempt to project a full notional Assembly result from the Westminster results. But that does not mean …

GE ’24: East Belfast Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on July 2, 2024, 10:34 am

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This was the third most marginal Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 1,819 votes separating the winner, Gavin Robinson (DUP), from his challenger, Naomi Long (Alliance). Long had held the seat for five years from 2010 to 2015, the only time a non-unionist has done so since the constituency was first created in 1885. Robinson has been the MP since 2015. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial, although they have the …

GE ’24: South Antrim Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on July 1, 2024, 5:37 pm

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This was the fifth most marginal Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 2,689 votes separating the winner, Paul Girvan (DUP) from the second-placed Danny Kinehan (UUP). It has always been represented by a unionist since the constituency was first created in 1885. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates John Blair, Alliance Paul Girvan, DUP Declan Kearney, Sinn Féin Mel Lucas, TUV Roisin Lynch, SDLP Siobhán McErlean, Aontú Robin Swann, UUP …

GE ’24: North Belfast Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 30, 2024, 6:55 am

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This was the fourth most marginal Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019 when John Finucane (Sinn Féin) took the seat from the DUP’s Nigel Dodds with a majority of 1,943. Dodds had held the seat for 18 years. Before Dodds all MP’s had been unionist since the constituency was first created in 1885 – apart that is from a few months between 1973 and 1974 after the sitting Unionist MP, Stratton Mills, defected to the Alliance party. The changes …

GE ’24: West Belfast Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 29, 2024, 3:37 pm

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This was the third safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 14,672 votes separating the winner, Paul Maskey (SF), from his nearest challenger, Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit). Maskey held the seat since he first won it in a by-election in 2011. Sinn Féin took the seat from the SDLP in 1983 and has held it since, apart from a five-year gap after the SDLP retook it in 1992. Prior to that the seat alternated between different shades …

GE ’24: South Belfast and Mid Down Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 28, 2024, 7:58 pm

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This was the second safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019. Claire Hanna (SDLP) enjoyed a 15,401 majority over the second placed Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) who had been the MP for two years. The constituency always returned a unionist from the time it was first created in 1885 up until 2005 when it was taken by the SDLP, which held it until 2017. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Dan Boucher, TUV …

GE ’24: Lagan Valley Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 27, 2024, 11:49 am

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This was the seventh most vulnerable Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 6,499 votes separating the winner, Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) from Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance). Donaldson held the seat since 1997. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial, although they have the capacity to make the constituency more marginal still. Candidates Johnathan Buckley, DUP Robbie Butler, UUP Patricia Denvir, Green Sorcha Eastwood, Alliance Simon Lee, SDLP Lorna Smyth, TUV Candidates’ Electoral History Vote shares …

GE ’24: East Antrim Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 27, 2024, 7:03 am

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East Antrim is not marginal. In 2019 Sammy Wilson (DUP) had a majority of 6,706 over Danny Donnelly (Alliance). It has always been unionist. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not major, although they increased the electorate by 8%, which is a bigger change than in most Northern Ireland constituencies. Candidates Mark Bailey, Green Danny Donnelly, Alliance Margaret McKillop, SDLP Oliver McMullan, Sinn Féin John Stewart, UUP Matthew Warwick, TUV Sammy Wilson, DUP Candidates’ Electoral History …

GE ’24: East Londonderry Constituency Profile

Michael Hehir on June 26, 2024, 9:10 am

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green and brown rock formation on sea shore under white clouds during daytime

This was the fifth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, where Gregory Campbell (DUP) clocked up a 9,607 majority over Cara Hunter (SDLP). Campbell has been the MP here for the last 23 years. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Gemma Brolly, Aontú Gregory Campbell, DUP Cara Hunter, SDLP Allister Kyle, TUV Jen McCahon, Green Kathleen McGurk, Sinn Féin Glen Miller, UUP Claire Scull, Conservative Richard Stewart, Alliance Candidates’ Electoral History …

GE ’24: Fermanagh & South Tyrone Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 25, 2024, 4:48 pm

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This was the most marginal Westminster constituency in the UK in 2019, with only 57 votes separating the winner, Michelle Gildernew, from Tom Elliot (UUP). The seat has seesawed back and forth between unionist and nationalist ever since it was created as a single member constituency in 1950. Gildernew first won the seat in 2001, lost it to Elliott in 2015, and regained it again in 2017. Neither of them are standing in this election. The boundary changes were not …

GE ’24: Foyle Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 24, 2024, 2:41 pm

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This was the safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 17,110 votes separating the winner, Colum Eastwood (SDLP) from the second placed Elisha McCallion (SF). McCallion had won the seat in 2017. Prior to that the SDLP had held the seat at every election since the constituency was created in 1983. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates John Boyle, Aontú Sandra Duffy, Sinn Féin Colum Eastwood, SDLP Rachael Ferguson, Alliance Shaun …

GE ’24: Mid Ulster Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 22, 2024, 11:16 am

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This was the sixth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 9,537 votes separating the winner, Francie Malloy (Sinn Féin), from Keith Buchanan (DUP). Malloy had held the seat since a by-election in 2013. Prior to that the seat had only been held by a nationalist for 10 out of the 63 years since it was created in 1950. Malloy is not standing again. The seat covers a rural area to the west of Lough Neagh, including part …

GE ’24: Newry and Armagh Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 21, 2024, 3:55 pm

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Newry and Armagh delivered a 9,287 majority for Micky Brady (Sinn Féin), with William Irwin (DUP) in second place. The constituency was only created in 1983. For the first three years it had a unionist MP but has been nationalist ever since. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Pete Byrne, SDLP Dáire Hughes, Sinn Féin Sam Nicholson, UUP Keith Ratcliffe, TUV Samantha Rayner, Conservative Liam Reichenberg, Aontú Gareth Wilson, DUP Helena Young, Alliance …

GE ’24: North Antrim Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 20, 2024, 11:33 am

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This was the fourth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 12,721 votes separating the winner, Ian Paisley Jr (DUP) from the second placed Robin Swann (UUP). Paisley took over the seat from his father. It has been in the family for 52 years. It had always been held by a unionist since it was created in 1885. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial Candidates Jim Allister, TUV Helen Maher, SDLP Philip …

GE ’24: North Down Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 18, 2024, 10:48 am

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North Down had the sixth smallest majority in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 2.968 votes separating the winner, Stephen Farry (Alliance) from Alex Easton (DUP). Previously the constituency had always been held by a unionist since its first creation in 1885. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Chris Carter, Independent Tim Collins, UUP Alex Easton, Independent Unionist Stephen Farry, Alliance Barry McKee, Green Déirdre Vaughan, SDLP The DUP, TUV, Conservatives and Sinn …

GE ’24: South Down Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 13, 2024, 9:06 am

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This was the second most marginal Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with only 1,620 votes separating the winner, Chris Hazard (Sinn Féin) from the runner-up Michael Savage (SDLP). The seat has been in nationalist hands since 1987, firstly with the SDLP and since 2017 with Sinn Féin. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial, although its electorate is now 9% smaller. Candidates Diane Forsythe, DUP Chris Hazzard, Sinn Féin Rosemary McGlone, Aontú Colin …

GE ’24: Strangford Constituency Profile…

Michael Hehir on June 12, 2024, 11:04 am

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There was a majority of 7,091 votes in 2019 for the winner, Jim Shannon (DUP) over his Alliance challenger, Kellie Armstrong. The seat was created in 1983 and has always been unionist. Shannon has held it since 2010. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Alexandra Braidner, Green Gareth Burns, Independent Garreth Falls, Independent Michelle Guy, Alliance Barry Hetherington, Conservative Ron McDowell, TUV Will Polland, SDLP Jim Shannon, DUP Richard Smart, UUP Candidates’ electoral …

Upper Bann Constituency Profile – GE’24

Michael Hehir on June 11, 2024, 11:05 am

| Readers 3165

This was the eighth safest Westminster constituency in Northern Ireland in 2019, with 8,210 votes separating the winner, Carla Lockhart (DUP) from Sinn Féin’s John O’Dowd. The seat was created in 1983 and has always returned a unionist. The changes made to the constituency boundaries last November were not substantial. Candidates Kate Evans, UUP Carla Lockhart, DUP Catherine Nelson, Sinn Féin Malachy Quinn, SDLP Eóin Tennyson, Alliance Candidates’ electoral history Vote shares by designation There were no changes to …