Daithi McKay 
The move towards a DUP-UUP pact for the Westminster has already begun and, depending on how far the two parties are willing to go and the absence of any other pacts this could be a good election for unionism in terms of the total number of MPs returned. A successful unionist pact could deliver as many as 11 out of the 18 seats, their best joint return in 20 years. It could also see the return of 3 Unionist MPs …
With the recent stepping up of debate about a Border Poll and the constitutional future of the north it is interesting (though I suspect coincidental) timing to see the Taoiseach Enda Kenny announce that a referendum will be held on the right of Irish citizens abroad and in the north to vote in future Presidential elections. The decision was agreed by Cabinet last week and momentous as this may be I suspect that it will come too late for the next poll …
So will next week’s poll see the breaking of more glass ceilings for female representation in the Assembly? Time will tell. But as we political nerds have fun tallying the possible final outcomes for political parties we should also look at potential gender outcomes. Foyle (0/1) Surprisingly Derry has only one female candidate placed to be in with a shout. Elisha McCallion the former Mayor of Derry and Strabane has a good profile in the city and has a reputation …
The Petition of Concern currently requires 30 signatures from nationalist or unionist MLAs respectively to be triggered. With the reduction in the number of legislators to 90 Sinn Féin can no longer reach the magic number 30 on their own (unless the bar of 30 is reduced). Therefore is it really such a big leap to have a weighted majority mechanism set at a level that requires the support of at least one of the nationalist parties? With Jim Allister (and …
The 2017 Assembly Election has not come at a good time for People before Profit. After making their Assembly breakthrough last year the party was looking forward to using the 5 years until 2021 as an opportunity to build a party infrastructure and establish a media profile which it was doing reasonably well at until the plug was pulled on the institutions. Incumbency is always an advantage at election time and a number of new MLAs including the Greens’ Clare Bailey …
‘Only the DUP stands in the way of a Sinn Féin First Minister’ exclaims a Democratic Unionist leaflet regarding the forthcoming Assembly election. It comes complete with a bar graph that shows a small 5 percentage margin between the two parties. At first glance one would think that it referred to the number of seats each party holds – which of course shows a much wider gap of 10 seats. This is of course crude dog-whistle politics. And it works. Last …
Just eight months ago we were celebrating the fact that the number of female legislators had increased by 50%. 30 women were elected compared to 20 in the 2011 elections. 28% of the 108 member legislature compared to 19% in the previous mandate. The Speaker Mitchel McLaughlin welcomed the change : “While we still have a long way to match the 51% of the population who are female, this is nonetheless a significant rate of progress.” If one looks at …
After the First Minister gave an initial curt ‘No’ to Sinn Féin’s draft paper for an Independent investigation she has now given a more detailed and lukewarm response to the proposals: “However, with the exception of the issue of stepping aside, we believe that the proposals provided to us by Sinn Fein on Thursday and published by them today provide a basis for taking an investigation forward.“Officials have raised a number of technical issues in relation to the proposals, however …
In yet another excellent piece for the Newsletter Sam McBride highlights the fact that Claire Sugden, it appears, has the ability to call a public inquiry on RHI under the Inquiries Act 2005. Up until this point the East Derry MLA has managed to avoid much of the media focus that has engulfed other Executive parties. With the Attorney General’s Office making it clear that he cannot set up an investigation into the ‘Cash for Ash’ scheme it does appear …
What would the Assembly look like if weighted majority voting had been introduced? With the present RHI scandal throwing up another problem with the system there have been some calls for a ‘public conversation’ on future reform. In the (original) Assembly & Executive Reform (Assembly Opposition) Bill John McCallister brought forward cross-community support and the petition of concern would have been removed. He had proposed a minimum percentage of 60% as a weighted majority threshold. First lets see how the …
As a Saffron now living west of the Bann all I really want for Christmas is the upgrading of the A6. Which Christmas though? Being a heavy commuter of some years I know how hours spent in a car with just coffee and bad podcasts can affect quality of life, time spent with family and general health and wellbeing. Public transport with WiFi helps but any time that can be knocked off bus or car journey times would be a …
Another string to add to the First Minister’s bow. By proceeding with today’s statement to the Assembly, without the consent of the deputy First Minister, the First Minister is arguably in breach of the Ministerial Code’s Pledge of Office. This states that she must: “observe the joint nature of the office of First Minister and deputy First Minister.” By making a speech unagreed by McGuinness the First Minister has undermined the jointery of the Executive office and the principle of …
Everyone will be watching Nolan Live tonight with bated breath (and popcorn). What will Jonathan Bell say? Will he produce documents and materials that will amount to a de facto ‘smoking gun’? The SDLP has said that they will table a motion of no confidence in the First Minister on Monday. People before Profit have organised ‘Arlene must go’ rallies for tomorrow and their timing (whilst fluky) is perfect given that people will be presumably reeling from tonight’s interview with …
When should a politician resign? What is the bar for a politician to resign from Ministerial or public office? Firstly the trend in regard to leaders and major referendums is the most clear cut. Alex Salmond lost the Scottish Independence Referendum, he resigned as First Minister. David Cameron lost the EU Referendum, he resigned as Prime Minister. Matteo Renzi lost his referendum on constitutional reform and he resigned as Italian PM. We haven’t had a referendum specific to the north …
Who benefits from the current debacle in the Dáil? No-one. Certainly not victims of the conflict seeking truth and some closure to the deaths of their loved ones. The Irish Times’ Michael O’Regan told Radio Kerry this morning that the Stack family are being used by opponents of Sinn Féin. He isn’t far off the mark. An ad hoc process was set up between Austin Stack and Gerry Adams in 2013 to try and bring closure and acknowledgement to the …
Billy Caldwell has spent a large chunk of his life being, in effect, a refugee. Forced to leave home because of a lack of services to effectively treat his condition. At just 11 years old this fighter from Castlederg, Co Tyrone has a severe life threatening form of epilepsy called intractable epilepsy. He is also a status epileptic. His mother Charlotte has fought hard for her son since she was told by the doctor he would not survive when he …
