Belfast’s transport system is currently flat on its face with acute congestion…

We talk of cities in human terms. They’re the ‘beating heart’ of an economy with ‘arterial routes’ into the city. Cities have financial ‘nerve-centres’ and a ‘circulation’ of people and traffic. People are the ‘life-blood’ of a city. When people flow freely they work more efficiently, spend more, exercise more, live better livers and produce a thriving, healthy, vital city. When people stop flowing the city gets slow, stressed, fat, clogged, angry… until it eventually falls flat on its face! Belfast’s transport system is currently flat on its face with acute congestion.

Everyone is panicking looking for the defibrillator. Journalists are busy writing obituaries. The Department for Infrastructure is gently splashing water on its face. Your man who owns the suit shop is running in circles live streaming himself. Belfast will eventually regain consciousness – but the prognosis is terminal.

The problem is, the Department for Infrastructure has been injecting cars into every vein, artery and capillary of Belfast for over 60 years. Not just Belfast – every city, town and village across in NI. The dosage increases each year. There are now around 1.3 million cars distributed among 1.9 million people – the highest figure in the UK. They have pumped so many cars into Belfast’s circulatory system, the only way now to maintain the flow is to allow cars to park on footpaths all over the city.

We’re all aware that Belfast’s traffic is now chaotic – so why are motorists still prepared to venture out each morning – knowing they’re going sit in congested traffic hour after hour, day after day?

Sunken costs

Driving isn’t a pay as you go experience. You sink thousands of pounds into a vehicle before taking your first trip. Deposit, monthly payments, insurance and fuel are all unrecoverable costs. This is the Sunken Cost Fallacy. Motorists pay for it upfront – and they want to get their money’s worth! No one cuts their losses without a viable way out.

John O’Dowd – current Infrastructure Minister – isn’t known for sugar coating his language… “expect congestion”, “what are you complaining about?” are good, no-nonsense messages people should hear when you want them to change their behaviour. However, telling someone to stop driving while offering no viable, reliable, safe or cheaper alternative – makes people feel angry and foolish for spending so much money.

He can’t sell rail because the network has contracted and become more expensive over the last 60 years. He can’t sell buses because they’re stuck in traffic. He can’t sell cycling because the public clearly see it as dangerous. Nobody’s buying what he’s selling.

For example – in a table-tossing-knee-jerk reaction – the DFI comms team quickly cobbled together some ill-thought out, in-house cycle promos featuring a £1200 folding bike and a snow-capped Black Mountain. The promos didn’t look any cheaper, safer or warmer than sitting in a very, very slow moving car. They got the reaction they deserved. No one bought it.

Going Cold Turkey

Nichola Mallon was the last minister brave enough to tell us we had to clean up our act – almost 5 years ago. Her dream of a place where “cars would be visitors in our towns and cities” got a large bucket of cold water from the department once they contemplated dealing with the withdrawal symptoms. Rather than cutting the ribbon on new sections of the Belfast Bicycle Network and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods, her department reduced her to unveiling bicycle pumps and announcing low level planting and art competitions.

Her attempt to create a safe cycle route on the Limestone Road for cyclists in North Belfast was botched by her own Department. Last month a man cycling from North Belfast to work in the city centre died tragically and needlessly for want of a safe cycle lane.

Congestion Awareness Campaign

Can O’Dowd cure the acute congestion problem? Recent history says he is on a hiding to nothing – but he might try something new? For years we didn’t talk about Cancer – it was referred to as “The Big C”. Cancer Awareness Campaigns helped lower anxiety levels. They give us a way to talk openly about the disease – leading to greater awareness, the ability to identify the symptoms and practice early prevention.

O’Dowd needs to start a Congestion Awareness Campaign and talk about the negative impacts of congestion. Yes – pollution, climate, added expense, stress, low work morale and bad productivity. But the most negative aspect is time – congestion robs us of our time. Time we’re not getting paid for. Time not spent with family. Time not doing things we enjoy.

He then needs to communicate a positive vision of life without congestion and back this up with viable, safe, reliable and most important – cheap public transport. Our public transport is extortionate. O’Dowd needs to make public transport cheaper and more reliable to cure congestion.

Funding cheap public transport

Belfast is like a bottle with fixed capacity. The road system is like a funnel inserted at the top of the bottle. Each new road scheme widens the neck of the funnel – but doesn’t increase the size of the bottle. That’s the congestion problem.

There are currently a whopping 40,000+ parking spaces in Belfast City centre. The destination for every car funnelled into Belfast City is one of those parking spaces. The average parking space is 2.5m x 5m – that adds up to about 70 football pitches. A lot more when you consider access roads and turning space. Even more when you include footpaths. That’s an awful lot of supply.

Consequently, parking is dirt cheap. The average coffee in the UK is £3.40. Parking space in a Belfast City Council carpark is as low as £3.60 (Corporation Street) for 24 hours. A day return bus ticket from Tamnamore Park & Ride to Belfast is £20. Car storage is incredibly cheap. In comparison, public transport looks like a punishment beating for “doing the right thing”.

To cure congestion the cost of parking needs to rise.

The cost of convenience

You may argue that £5–10 is the maximum a driver is willing to pay for 24 hour parking. Compare council prices to airports – who aren’t afraid to apply the law of supply to their limited parking space. Belfast City Airport charge £30.00 per day and £10 per day thereafter. Airports also know the value of their kerbsides – some charging £5+ simply to drop someone off at the door (kiss & fly). Everyone complains – but when enough drivers are forced to consider the cost of convenience – the airport finds its market. The rest take the bus. The UK’s 4 largest airports now make as much in 1 day as the NCP – who have 200,000 spaces in 800 locations.

Consider Antrim Council who are debating raising their car park charges. They have 11 car parks. Only three of these charge for parking – 20p for 1 hour. The other 8 are free. 350,000 cars were parked in these 3 car parks in 2023–24, raising a measly £70,000. Councils across Northern Ireland need to start realising the true value of their assets and use them to improve and lower public transport costs in their areas.

No one’s advocating airport prices for motorists – but 20p is cheaper than the cost of a plastic/paper carrier bag in some shops they’re parked outside.

Never waste a good crisis

O’Dowd has an advantage over his predecessors. He has the Climate Change Act – compelling him to spend 10% of his budget on Active Travel. That’s close to £90M. They’re currently scraping along at just over £10M. Early indications are his department is more interested in dressing up road projects as active travel – simply to hit the 10% target. He needs to stamp that out quickly. His department needs to be seen as the congestion cure – not the continual cause.

He also has the advantage of a homemade crisis. Good politicians know “never to waste a good crisis” – the public want something new not more of the same. He could use the Climate Act budget and his powers as a carrot for councils willing to join the ant-congestion campaign.

His pitch to councils that raise additional “anti-congestion revenue” through increased parking rates – could be:

• We’ll lower your public transport costs;
• you get an injection of Active Travel spending to create safe routes to bus/train stations and schools;
• we’ll give you extra muscle (vesting) to push through your Greenway projects;
• motorists who break the law and cause congestion – yellow box and pavements parking infringements – will be prosecuted £160 for each offence. That money will be re-invested in anti-congestion measures in your area.

His public message could be

• I’m not anti-car – I’m anti-congestion;
• congestion robs us all of our most precious asset… time;
• those who need/want to drive will get there much quicker but pay fractionally more when they park.
• those who don’t drive will get there quicker and safer by walking/cycling and on cheaper trains & buses.

I’m making it sound easy. It’s not. Motorists need to feel they’re making the smart option by paying more to park. Everyone else needs to feel smart by cycling and using public transport. It’s a Rubik’s Cube – tinkering with one side won’t solve it. It’s not helped that public faith in the Stormont institutions are rock bottom – faith in the Department of Infrastructure is in the underground car park.

So, rest up Belfast. Get your feet up over Christmas and try and relax. You need to go on a diet in the New Year or you’ll be face down again by Easter.