Stormont votes to extend Windsor Framework

On Tuesday evening (10 December), the Assembly voted for the continued implementation of Articles 5 to 10 of the Windsor Framework, Northern Ireland’s post Brexit trading arrangements. According to BBC News, the Assembly debate lasted over six hours, with the motion passing by 48 to 36 votes. There was no cross-community support required for the motion to pass, and the three unionist parties (DUP, UUP and TUV) voted against the motion whereas Sinn Féin, Alliance and the SDLP were amongst the supporters. The DUP argued the vote created a democratic deficit which allowed the concerns of unionists to be overlooked, with deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly MLA calling it a “rigged vote”. SDLP Opposition Leader Matthew O’Toole MLA, however, said the current trade arrangements had been necessary to offer “protections” from the harms of Brexit.

What Next: NI Secretary of State Hilary Benn MP welcomed the outcome of the vote. He said he will “now proceed as required by the law, including to commission an independent review” and added that the UK Government is committed to providing stability for NI.

Housing Supply Strategy launched

On Monday (9 December), the Department for Communities launched the Housing Supply Strategy, a 15-year framework for the development and delivery of policies and actions needed to deliver Northerb Ireland’s housing supply needs. Agreed by the Northern Ireland Executive on the 5 December 2024, the 39-page strategy addresses rising housing demand, an ageing population, and decarbonisation goals. Communities Minister Gordon Lyons MLA said that 100,000 new homes need to be built by 2039 in NI, and one third of which – around 33,000 – will be social homes. The plan requires collaboration across departments, including the Department of Infrastructure (planning and connection to the water system), the Department of Finance (building regulation), and the Department for the Economy (energy).

However, the success of the plan is based on a number of assumptions, including the assumption that the Executive will prioritise funding housing, address investment in infrastructure, and improve the planning system. In the strategy’s foreward Minister Lyons highlighted that the strategy was an Executive one, rather than just his Department’s, given that there are significant structural issues such as water infrastructure constraints, land-use planning, construction skills and land availability which need addressing.

What Next: Speaking in the Assembly about the strategy, Mr Lyons stressed that transforming housing supply will require “collaboration across government, the voluntary and community sector and private sectors”. The Strategy sets out long term policy commitments over a 15 year period to 2039 but will be divided into enabling action plans over 1-3 year periods.

Finance Minister lays out rates proposals

Finance Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald MLA outlined plans for a comprehensive review of Northern Ireland’s rating system in the Assembly on Monday (9 December). Dr Archibald detailed the plans to the Assembly after failing to secure agreement among Executive ministers, despite backing from Sinn Féin, Alliance, and the UUP, a situation she described as “regrettable”. Committing to reviewing every single rating support measure within a Strategic Review Cycle, the Minister outlined that under her plans the policies of Small Business Rate Relief Scheme and Non-Domestic Vacant Rating exclusions would be prioritised. One key proposal brought forward by the Minister would raise the cap on the

rateable value of houses from £400,000 to £485,000, impacting the 8,000 most valuable houses in NI. According to BBC News, the proposal would generate an additional £2m a year in recurring revenue for the Executive. A further proposed change is to cut the early repayment discount to 2% from 4%.

What Next: Public consultations on the valuation cap and the repayment discount will start in January 2025.

Stakeholder Watch

First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA (Sinn Féin, Mid Ulster): “Tonight [Dec 10], the Assembly voted to extend the protections that have shielded people here from the worst impacts of Brexit. MLAs who supported this crucial decision have ensured that we can continue to benefit from the economic opportunities of our unique access to both European and British markets. This will ensure better economic prospects for workers, families and communities.”

Nigel Dodds (Rt Hon the Lord Dodds of Duncairn OBE, DUP): [Responding to Hilary Benn SOS for NI calling the democratic consent vote an “important step forward for the Windsor Framework”] “The vote showed 100% of unionists against. It’s disgraceful to say it’s a step forward when the entire basis of cross community consent has been ripped up.”

Leader of the Alliance Party, Naomi Long MLA (Alliance, East Belfast): “Softer Brexit alternatives were dismissed by those now opposing the Windsor Framework. Ironically, the DUP called it a success earlier this year. Alliance backs the Framework, not because it’s perfect, but because it’s the best choice for stability over chaos.”

Ulster Unionist Party: “Aiken Highlights Impact of New EU Regulations. Read More here”

Leader of the Opposition Mathew O’Toole MLA, (SDLP, South Belfast & Mid Down): “The Executive will fail to deliver even half of the legislation promised for 2024. I asked the First Minister, who made the promise, why. Her answer was a fairly typical mix of gauzy platitude and shabby deflection. We need better in 2025.”

Other stories

New EU rules that make it more difficult for some small businesses in GB to sell to NI come into effect

The EU’s General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) have come in to effect, creating new requirements for Great Britain businesses, including the need to have a compliance agent in Northern Ireland or the EU. BBC News NI reports that this is a particular challenge for small businesses in Great Britain who are selling direct to consumers. Tina McKenzie, policy chair at the FSB, said: “GPSR will be a real barrier to international trade for some of our small firms looking to export to EU member states, but also move goods to Northern Ireland.” Sammy Wilson MP (DUP, Est Antrim) said the UK had “abandoned many traders”, while Kate Nicholl MLA (Alliance, South Belfast and Mid Down) said there were “clear issues with communication and how the government have been engaging with those businesses”. The UK-EU Trade and Cooperative Agreement, which includes product safety rules, is due to be reviewed in 2026.

Commons Northern Ireland Affairs Committee: Minister points to ‘stark reality’ of changes to inheritance tax

On Tuesday (10 December), Northern Ireland farming representatives told the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee that a

£1 million cap on Agricultural Property Relief (APR) could deter farmers from investing to meet environmental challenges. The change was announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP during the Autumn Budget. President of the Ulster Farmers’ Union William Irvine described the change to APR is “the biggest dis-incentivisation for on-farm investment” in years, adding that it puts farmers under “extreme pressure”. The Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) estimated that 75% of dairy farms and 40-45% of cattle and sheep farms in NI would exceed the £1 million threshold, thus disproportionately impacting NI due to its high number of sole ownership farms. NI Agriculture, Environmrnt & Rural Affairs Minister Andrew Muir MLA has said he has serious concerns about the UK Governments’ way of measuring the impact of the tax changes and “urged” the Government to reconsider their plans.

NI retailers could face extra £70m in bills

Retailers in Northern Ireland could face up to £71.5m in additional costs annually due to changes in National Insurance, according to the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium (NIRC) reports reports the Belfast Telegraph. It follows a rise in National Insurance contributions and a reduction in the secondary threshold of NIC for employers, announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves during the Autumn Budget. NIRC’s figures indicate that retailers in NI would end up paying an extra £18.4m due to the former change, and £53.5m for the latter. NIRC has written to Philip Brett MLA (DUP, North Belfast), Chair of the Economy Committee, to express concerns over the rise. The Department of Finance said that they were trying to help NI business following the decision from the UK Government.

AERA Minister welcomes approval of emissions targets

Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) Minister Andrew Muir MLA has welcomed the Assembly’s approval of legislation setting Northern Ireland’s first three carbon budgets and a new 2040 target to reduce emissions. MLAs debated the legislation on Tuesday (10 December) during which Minister Muir noted that the regulations are being introduced to deliver on the statutory requirements that the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 placed on his Department. The first three carbon budget periods are 2023-2027, 2028-2032 and 2033-2037. He added however that meaningful action plans were needed as the next step. The Minister added that one of the next steps is to bring forward the climate action plan, get Executive agreement and then announce the green growth strategy.

Minister appoints new Chair to the Board of the Education Authority

Education Minister Paul Givan has announced the appointment of Mervyn Storey to the post of Chairperson of the Board of the Education Authority (EA) with effect from 1 January 2025. Mr Storey is a former Executive Minister, and is currently a DUP councillor fo Causeway Coast and Glens.

Call for evidence launched on using biofuels to transition away from fossil fuels for heating

Economy Minister Conor Murphy MLA launched a Call for Evidence to explore the potential use of biofuels as an alternative to home heating oil and fossil-based LPG. Minister Murphy said “Technologies like heat pumps are vital for the long-term decarbonisation of heat, however upgrade works can be costly for some homes and businesses. Biofuels can offer an important transitionary option, one which is secure, affordable and sustainable.” The consultation closes on Tuesday 4 March 2025.

Consultation launched on a new Fuel Poverty Strategy for NI

The Department for Communities has opened a 12-week public consultation on a new Fuel Poverty Strategy for Northern Ireland. This strategy proposes a vision of a Warm, Healthy Home for Everyone, supported by 4 principles. It contains a number of proposed actions that will help achieve the following objectives to make homes more energy efficient, collaborate and build capacity, and protect consumers. The draft Strategy also proposes a new approach to measuring and reporting on fuel poverty and proposals for the Department’s new Fuel Poverty Energy Efficiency scheme. The consultation will close on Thursday 6 March 2025.

Robin Swann announced as only Northern Ireland MP on UK-EU Relations Panel

Robin Swann MP (UUP, South Antrim) welcomed his appointment to a UK-EU parliamentary panel on post-Brexit relations, saying Northern Ireland faces pressures unlike those found anywhere else in the UK, reports the News Letter. He is the only Northern Ireland MP on the UK delegation to the UK-EU Parliamentary Partnership Assembly, and

former SDLP leader Baroness Ritchie also has a place on the delegation. The body is a forum to exchange views on the post-Brexit relationship.

Across the border

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael engage in government formation talks

On Wednesday (11 December), Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael began formal discussions on government formation. In a joint statement, they said initial discussions were “positive and constructive”, with the focus for the time being on policy rather than ministerial positions or rotating Taoisigh arrangements. According to RTÉ News, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin said he was hopeful that substantive work could be completed before Christmas and that when the Dáil resumes in the

New Year it would be ready for the election of a Taoiseach. It is looking increasingly likely that the two main parties will be supported by the Regional Independents group, which includes a number of TDs who were once members of Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, or who supported the Fine Gael minority government from 2016 to 2019. The Regional Independents are also set to nominate Verona Murphy for the position of Ceann Comhairle (Speaker of the House). The Irish Independent reports that Ms Murphy may have the support of her former party, Fine Gael, but that multiple Fianna Fáil TDs have expressed an interest in the position.

House prices overvalued by 8-10%, ESRI warns in latest economic update

Irish property prices are overvalued by 8% to 10%, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) in its latest Quarterly Economic Commentary. The report warns that households are carrying high levels of mortgage debt, raising “the prospect of a painful correction such as that witnessed between 2007 and 2012.” Speaking to RTÉ News, researcher Kieran Quinn said aid an overvalued housing market “is not sustainable in the longer term”. The report also warns that the Government may have to cut spending next year if the incoming Trump administration introduces tariffs. However, the overall economic outlook for the Republic remains positive, with economic growth, real wage growth and employment rates all projected to remain strong.

Soc Dems suspend new TD for giving incorrect info about sale of shares from firm linked to Israeli military Newly elected TD Eoin Hayes has been suspended from the Social Democrats following the revelation that he sold his shares in Palantir, a US software company that supplies the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), a month after he was elected as a councillor last June. In a press conference on Tuesday (10 December), Mr Hayes told the media he had sold the shares before he entered politics. According to the Irish Times, Palantir, cofounded by venture capitalist Peter Thiel, uses data analysis to provide AI capabilities to the IDF and to US agencies, including the ability to identify targets for bombing. Mr Hayes worked for Palantir in 2015 and 2017. In a statement, he said he had “absolutely no role in anything related to any military contracts, for the Israeli military or anyone else.” He said that he regretted not selling the shares earlier, and apologised for “providing incorrect information”.

What we’re reading

Stormont had money for transport but spent it elsewhere

Writing in the Irish News, Newton Emerson says the traffic chaos that has snarled up Belfast in recent weeks reflects failures larger and older than lack of money. But it is no coincidence that transport is one of the few policy areas where public spending in Northern Ireland is significantly less per head than in England – 74 per cent of England’s level, to be precise. This is worse than it appears, suggests Emerson, because Northern Ireland usually needs to spend more per head than England to achieve the same standard of public services, due to different social and geographical factors – 24 per cent more according to Stormont’s independent Fiscal Council. This is, he explains, the basis of the so-called ‘fiscal floor’ that the NI Executive wants to negotiate as a new way to set its block grant. On a basic budget of 20 per cent more per head than England for the last two years and with extra cash from the Treasury making up the difference, Northern Ireland’s fiscal floor has just about been met. And NI’s budget was 40 per cent above England’s in the previous decade and “not much less for decades before that”, according to Emerson. This means there is “no excuse for long-

term underinvestment in transport”. Stormont “had the money and chose to spend it somewhere elsewhere”. And official comparisons produced by the Treasury, he continues, show that apart from transport, the only other major policy area where Northern Ireland spends less than England is on environmental protection, which mainly covers waste management. Emerson concludes that public transport, roads and the environment have been sacrificed to fund every other major category of public spending.