Ireland have had a good year since the World Cup, retaining our 6 nations title, tying a series away to World Champions, South Africa, and winning three out of four in the November window. We end the year still ranked #2 in the world, which is not a bad place for a small rugby playing country to be in. However, we lost games against England, South Africa and New Zealand, so obviously some more improvement is needed.
There were signs that opposing teams have figured out how to deal with our short pass multi-point attack and have neutered our line-out on which many of our attacking plays are based. Our other chronic weakness is at prop where we have yet to find replacements for Furlong or Cian Healy and all the provinces are struggling to identify and develop top class Irish qualified props.
Over the year Farrell has developed three good options to replace Sexton at 10 in Crowley, Prendergast and Frawley and some other good young players like Nash, McCarthy, Osborne, and Cormac Izuchukwu have come through. However, most of these players come from Leinster where they get limited game time, and we really have to broaden the conveyer belt of test class talent coming through from all four provinces. The Byrne brothers will probably end up leaving Leinster in search of game time, but what benefit will that be to Irish rugby if they follow Carbery to France?
With Farrell off to coach the Lions, we need the remaining coaches, and particularly Paul O’Connell to fix those structural weaknesses in our game as well as develop further new talent coming through. In my book Ireland are still favourites to be the first country to win the 6 Nations three years in a row, but a significant improvement on their November form will be needed if we are to beat England and France at home and Scotland away.
Munster
Munster are also suffering from an injury crisis, particularly at prop but should have enough in the tank to squeeze past a Stade Francais team who may have set a higher priority on surviving in the TOP 14 and have left many of their star players at home. Munster started badly against a second string Bayonne side last year and a first ever defeat to Zebre in the URC this season may have contributed to the premature departure of their head coach Graham Rowntree. I doubt they will make the same mistake of taking lightly a Stade Francais side with many young players hungry for first team game time.
Ulster
Ulster have the toughest of starts away to Champions Toulouse and seem to have almost written off that fixture by resting Treadwell and McCann and leaving their international contingent of Rob Herring, Tom O’Toole, Iain Henderson and Cormac Izuchukwu on the bench. There are rumours that Cooney and Stockdale may be off to France next season, so life isn’t going to get any easier for Richie Murphy, in his first Champions Cup match as coach. Bordeaux at home next week aren’t going to be much easier, but Toulouse are probably the only team with a squad to match Leinster this year.
Leinster
Shock Horror! A non-international (Jack Boyle) has snuck into the Leinster XXIII to play Bristol, although admittedly he did train with the Ireland squad without getting capped. The strength of Leinster’s squad is underlined by the fact that they can be missing Tadgh Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Ryan Baird, Will Connors, Hugo Keenan and James Lowe and still field virtually a fully test class squad.
The bench isn’t too shabby either with Andrew Porter, RJ Snyman, Caelan Doris, Ross Byrne and Jordie Barrett to provide reinforcement in case Bristol – who are riding high in the Premiership – cause them a lot of problems. It should be a good match with both sides averaging over four tries and 30 points a game. Can Nienaber’s defence cope with Pat Lam’s all action style?
On paper, Leinster should win, but then games aren’t played on paper and are often won by the team which needs/wants it more. I would be more concerned that some of Leinster’s international contingent are tired after their November exertions and find it hard to get fully back up to speed for a club game in the depths of December. No doubt memories of past failures in the Champion’s cup will continue to haunt them but will hopefully elicit a positive response.
Connacht
Despite claiming to take the Challenge Cup seriously, Connacht have given their international contingent of Mack Hansen, Bundee Aki, Finlay Bealham and Cian Prendergast the week off, despite Prendergast only getting a few minutes game time for Ireland. In fairness they have to develop their squad depth, and Zebre at home isn’t the most testing of fixtures. That said Zebre have beaten Munster this season for the first time ever and beat the Osprey’s in their last fixture. Connacht’s young guns had better perform!
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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