Ben M is a Slugger reader from Dublin
This committee comprises Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and some of the other southern-only parties, as well as Sinn Féin. That’s significant, outside of Leo Varadkar’s recent intervention, I can’t remember such cross-party support for UI preparation. Normally it’s just SF talking about it.
I’ve long thought if I were a Unionist what would truly worry me about the UI issue wouldn’t be SF, it would be the southern parties starting a UI-preparation process. We don’t really know what level UI support is at in Northern Ireland. When people are usually polled on the issue, they are asked how they would vote on it tomorrow. But no one knows what a UI would be like. What would the health system be? taxes, social welfare, education system, etc.
If the South presented attractive terms for those issues in a post-UI Ireland, what level would NI UI support be then? We don’t know. But I’d guess it would be far higher, perhaps around 50%; if that were so, then talks between the British & Irish governments on the timing of a border poll would be all but inevitable.
Many wondered about Leo Varadkar’s recent intervention in this debate. It was unusually definitive, and a strong break from long-standing Irish government policy, in that he said a UI-preparation process should start immediately. Now that makes more sense. I suspect he knew what was coming with this report. This report doesn’t mean the Irish government will adopt its recommendations straight away, but I think it signals where things are headed. A UI-preparation process in the south is a matter of when, and not if.
Unionists can take some comfort. The report, the first in a series, goes into detail about economic issues, and it’s not all good news for the UI side. It says the oft-quoted £10 billion annual subvention figure won’t be the cost to the south of supporting the north in a post-UI Ireland. However, there will be many costs, including an increased contribution to the EU budget. Bringing NI in line with ROI’s far more generous social welfare payments will be a high cost and need a transition phase. Unification will be a substantial financial cost for the South, and some of the electorate won’t like it. This is a wedge pro-Union supporters can exploit.
Professor Peter Shirlow recently said “If you have a strategic interest in Northern Ireland, why talk a border poll into existence? Designing that future only helps those who want it to happen.” He’s correct and perceptive enough to grasp the true significance of a UI preparation phase. It will gauge if there is real support for a UI in Northern Ireland’s swing voters. If there truly is, and UI support is in the 50% range, then this debate moves to a new stage.
This is a guest slot to give a platform for new writers either as a one off, or a prelude to becoming part of the regular Slugger team.
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