If Arlene Foster Goes, Who Steers The DUP Ship?

Rumours circulating on social media today, as well as reporting by The News Letter’s Sam McBride, indicate that Arlene Foster’s time at the helm of the DUP, and as First Minister, is coming to a close. If rumours are to be believed (and we all need a big dash of salt these days) then this is something outside of the First Minister’s immediate control. With plummeting polling numbers showing the DUP to drop below Sinn Fein in next year’s Assembly elections, and the escalating tensions surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol and discussions of a border poll, it all seems to be slipping away from the self-appointed leaders of Unionism.

I could go into the many reasons for this, and we’d be here all day but no doubt the DUP’s handling of Brexit, the complete dysfunction of the NI Executive, their hardline policy positions on social issues and their unwillingness to engage in any meaningful conversation around the violence we’ve seen in the last few weeks are but a handful of the issues. Arlene Foster is the first woman, and the youngest person, to be in charge of a devolved settlement in Northern Ireland. Younger than any First Minister, or Prime Minister of Northern Ireland before her, Foster heads an Executive that is completely gender-balanced, and the first administration on these islands to have two female heads of Government. That aside, the question that seems to be on people’s lips is who will take over when she eventually goes?

Years ago there would have been a veritable platter of talent in the DUP’s ranks vying for the position of party leader. In the days of Paisley Snr it was a given that Peter Robinson would be his successor, but had that not come to pass we may well have seen Sammy Wilson, Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell, Jeffrey Donaldson etc all elbowing their way to the front of the queue. With the ending of double-jobbing those names are all now seemingly happily confined to the benches of the Houses of Commons or the House of Lords. There had been several names considered leadership material just a few years ago with the likes of former Executive Ministers Simon Hamilton, Paul Givan and Nelson McCausland all considered to be front runners if the vacancy ever arose. 

Hamilton is now the CEO of the Belfast Chamber of Commerce, Paul Givan hasn’t been anywhere near an Executive post since his bungling of the Líofa Bursary scheme in 2016, and Nelson McCausland lost his seat in the 2017 Assembly elections which followed the collapse of the Executive. So, who could possibly take up the role of Leader and First Minister when Arlene eventually goes? Unfortunately for the DUP, there is hardly a groundswell of talent in their ranks now, and with the membership numbers dwindling there isn’t a huge list to choose from. 

The most likely contenders will be MLAs that the public can easily recognise, can support, and who they can trust (or at least know where that person stands on particular issues). Names that immediately spring to mind are Edwin Poots, and Diane Dodds. Both incumbent Executive Ministers, and recognisable names. Both Poots and Dodds are old guard DUP, and are synonymous with the DUP’s brand of Unionism. Both are devout Christians, and both represent the Paisleyite wing of the DUP. Reliable, trustworthy and a safe pair of hands. Between the two, however, my money would be on Poots. 

Diane Dodds’ husband is also Deputy leader of the DUP, and lost the North Belfast Westminster seat to Sinn Fein. That close proximity to a very recent fresh wound in the minds of their voter base might make her an unattractive choice, and having spent a significant amount of time away from the frontline of NI politics on the benches of the European Parliament, there isn’t the same recognition factor as with Edwin Poots. 

 

The other name that has been tipped as a potential successor to Arlene Foster is incumbent MP for East Belfast, Gavin Robinson. Former Lord Mayor of Belfast, and former Special Advisor to Peter Robinson (no relation), Gavin would be seen as an attractive choice for younger Unionists and Loyalists who may be thinking of going elsewhere. Only thirty six years old, Gavin would be the youngest First Minister of any of the devolved governments in the UK. A powerful orator, and legitimately savvy political operator, Robinson knows the Westminster and Stormont systems like the back of his hand, and is well regarded in local Government. Having attended school with Gavin I can say that despite our vast differences in politics, he is genuinely seen to be personable and tenacious in equal measure. Whether those qualities would be enough to help him turn the electoral tide of the DUP is yet to be proven, but it would put him in direct competition with the more hardline wing of the party and potentially diminish his ability to liberalise their policy platform. 

The biggest issue with Robinson putting his name in the hat for leader would be the fact that due to the constraints of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, only a member of the NI Assembly can be nominated as First Minister. Gavin would have to resign his Westminster seat and force a by-election in East Belfast. The DUP don’t have enough recognisable names in their roster to hold that seat against an Alliance Party candidate (most likely Naomi Long or one of their East Belfast Councillors, perhaps former Deputy Lord Mayor Peter McReynolds). Given that Gavin Robinson, even with incumbency and name recognition, only managed to hold his Westminster seat against Alliance by a majority of less than two thousand votes – it would be an uphill battle for any DUP candidate, even with other Unionist parties stepping aside, to hold that seat against a surging Alliance Party. If the DUP lost that seat it would be gone for the foreseeable, and that would be the end of Robinson’s leadership before it even began. 

Regardless of the outcome, this is all based on conjecture and rumour. Arlene Foster remains First Minister for the moment, even if the remainder of her tenure is being counted in days rather than months. The DUP have a significant battle ahead, and with a shifting demographic and the eyes of the world on Northern Ireland over the last few weeks there has never been either a better or worse time for a leadership change at the top of the largest Unionist party. The implications for the handling of Brexit, the pandemic, and the future of devolution are massive.