New poll has SF largest party on 24%, DUP 19%, Alliance 18% & TUV on 10%…

A new poll by Lucid Talk for the Belfast Telegraph is showing that the DUP are getting hammering over the Irish Sea Border, with hardline supporters switching allegiance to the TUV:

DUP support plunges as hardline unionists flock to Jim Allister amidst Irish Sea border fears. In @LucidTalk poll for @beltel, SF largest party on 24%; DUP on 20-yr low of 19%; Alliance challenging to be 2nd largest party on 18%; & TUV on 10% record high.https://t.co/3AdzLysJrx

— Suzanne Breen (@SuzyJourno) February 1, 2021

The main take away is that SF could take the First Minister position. This will rattle Unionists who are already nervous over the increased talk about a border poll. As you probably know the First and Deputy First Ministers are an equal role, they could neutralise this issue by removing the title of Deputy First Minister so both have the same title.

Here is the full support for all parties:

pic.twitter.com/nMJwXr7CmO

— Michael (@Michael07630350) February 1, 2021

Good news for the TUV, but is the TUV anything more than a one-man party? Also good news for the SDLP who have come back from the dead spectacularly over the past few years. Just think it was not that long ago that the plan was for the SDLP to become Fianna Fail in the North, what a disaster that would have been. But the big story is the massive growth in support for the Alliance Party. Naomi Long has proven herself to be one of the most popular party leaders and this is paying off at the ballot box. It took over 40 years but are we now seeing the long-predicted growth of the middle ground?

The NI leader most highly rated by voters (as good/great) is . . . . the SDLP's.
🔷Colum Eastwood – 47%
🔷 Naomi Long – 42%
🔷Arlene Foster – 36%
🔷Jim Allister – 31%
🔷Steven Aiken – 23%
🔷Michelle O'Neill – 22%

— Suzanne Breen (@SuzyJourno) October 12, 2020

Very difficult to work out how a result like this would work out in terms of seats. A decent amount of the TUV vote will go straight back to the DUP in second prefs. SF still vulnerable in lots of seats on 24% as they had such a good result in 2017. And a tricky path for Alliance https://t.co/TgzmgSLGSm

— Peter Donaghy (@peterdonaghy) February 1, 2021

When it comes to individual Ministers there is good news for Robin Swann’s competent handling of the pandemic, but a big F for the embattled Education Minister Peter Weir.

It's a tale of two ministers in @beltel poll. Robin Swann was the most popular politician in NI by a country mile – 75% of people say he's doing a good/great job. Almost the same number say Peter Weir is doing a bad/awful one. pic.twitter.com/SPjVtk2uw2

— Suzanne Breen (@SuzyJourno) February 1, 2021

Polls are only a snapshot of opinion at a particular time. There is a lot that could happen between now and the next election, but it makes for interesting reading.

“Day 2 of Stormont Talks – Michelle O’Neill” by Sinn Féin is licensed under CC BY