How are we really doing compared to the south and GB? The public health and economic positions of coronavirus for Northern Ireland need more searching inquiry

North -south differences of approach to Covid 19 are hampering the chances of saving lives, according to an epidemiologist Prof Gabriel Scally.  He brings apparent authority to differences which have been aired politically but not as far as I’ve seen among other  experts.

These differences should surely be resolved at a north-south ministerial meeting today. Scally writes in the Irish News..

The advice to someone in Lifford with symptoms of the disease is to self-isolate for a minimum of 14 days – a stone’s throw away in Strabane the advice is isolation for seven days.

One difference stands out.

The south is attempting to limit spread and terminate the outbreak as rapidly as possible. They aim is to identify people developing the disease through widespread intensive community testing.

They then trace close contacts of those testing positive for the virus and ensure that both patients and contacts are isolated.

In the north community testing and contact tracing was abandoned on March 13 and, as in the rest of the UK, testing will be largely be reserved for hospital inpatients and health service staff.

In the south, with its network of over 40 community testing facilities, the aim is to reach 100,000 tests per week by the end of April, whereas the north has set a goal of performing just under 8,000 tests per week.

These very different policies get to the heart of the north/south differences.

The south has watched and learnt from the experience of countries, including South Korea and China, that have controlled the disease successfully…

Indeed, at a recent press conference the Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England assured journalists that WHO advice was only relevant to low and middle income countries.

In shades of Orwell’s 1984, Whitehall does not want people learning about the views of WHO and the successful efforts to control the virus in other countries in case it undermines their novel and unevidenced approach.

The UK government was told on March 4 by their ‘scientific advisors’ that media reports of successful public health strategies in other countries could spark public concern if those interventions were not being applied in the UK.

The approach taken in the north is essentially the one promulgated from Whitehall. So far, devolved governments in Scotland and the north have shown little sign of challenging or deviating from that strategy.

The unified approach held firm even when it was revealed by the small coterie of senior officials guiding policy that their actual aim was for the population to actively develop ‘herd immunity’.

The concept roughly being that when the proportion of the population that have had the disease is high enough, then there will not be enough uninfected people left for the virus to continue to spread.

It is an approach that is regarded by many senior public health physicians as dangerously flawed.

But Prof Scally’s scathing criticisms  ignore the fact  that any reliance on  “herd immunity” was abandoned for “suppression” a fortnight ago in the UK.

Without doubt “test, test, test” is the ideal; and this is precisely what the  former English Health Secretary Jeremy  Hunt  is calling for, for  the entire UK population.

But are there enough testing kits north or south  to go around even for  medical staff, never mind the population in general?  We need a proper analysis of this.

Its no surprise that there are problems , over community testing in the south, as the Irish Times  reports.

 First we were too restrictive with testing, denying people tests simply because they had not been abroad.

Then we were too liberal, and the system was flooded by the “worried well”. So we changed the criteria again, and thousands had their tests cancelled.

All along the process has been marred by delays in getting a test, having it processed and reported back. These delays were understandable, but still reduce the likelihood of compliance, and are likely to lead to more false negatives.

So the reason Ministers told us last Friday not to go more than 2km from our house, and not at all if we are over 70, is because we can’t say with certainty where the disease is.

The finance minister Conor Murphy has said the North will receive a share of the personal protection equipment flown in from China by the Dublin government. Is this happening?

If the two  governments on this islands are not comparing and contrasting the state of the crisis and how to cope with it, why aren’t we getting more of this from the media who have access to them? Or have I somehow missed it?

On the mere politics of the situation the Executive has been maintaining basic unity despite differences over school closures and the extent of lockdown. It would be better not to make too much of this unless they affect the real situation. Unless malign characters chose to stage provocative incidents which break the regulations, there is no way the PSNI will use force to obey the rules.

There is some good news of the financial front.

The Northern Ireland Executive has so far received an additional £912m to deal with the Coronavirus crisis... About 70% of that money, £639m, has already been allocated.

Finance Minister Conor Murphy has also announced a cut in business rates and a freeze in domestic rates. Rates are the property taxes paid by businesses and households… Mr Murphy said he would cut Stormont’s portion of business rates by 4p in the pound, which will save businesses £56m.

Overall, the amount of cash available to Stormont departments will increase by more than 8%.

That is the biggest annual increase in more than a decade.

the executive has tried to be flexible, so if money is not used by departments for tackling coronavirus issues it can be reallocated at a later date…

The increase to departmental budget includes some significant one-off allocations from the New Decade, New Approach (NDNA) deal.

It was the deal which led to the restoration of devolution in January.

Among the NDNA money allocated is £350m to deal with immediate pressures in public spending.

The Department of Finance is not publishing a detailed budget document.

It wants to give ministers time to consider their funding needs and possibly reallocate some money between departments.

It hopes to publish a detailed document in May

In the Westminster budget three weeks ago, Stormont was allocated an additional £200m.

The majority of that money, £138m, was for infrastructure spending, with the remaining £77m for day-to-day spending.

At that time Mr Murphy said the additional spending was inadequate to tackle public spending pressures in Northern Ireland.

Ministers from the executive and the Irish government are to discuss the coronavirus crisis later.

BBC News NI Political Editor Mark Devenport said there was no firm “cast list” for the meeting, but it would likely be a continuation of the North-South Ministerial Council meeting earlier in March.

Let’s hope they do better this time.  There’s a lot to do all round . These warnings  by Neil Gibson  and colleagues in EY on the impact on the economy are graded for  timing and mitigation factors such as those announced today. But clearly they won’t be enough  to avert recession or worse.

With 910,000 total workforce jobs in Northern Ireland, the worst-case scenario of 132,000 job losses could mean that one in seven posts is at risk.

In their report, also covered in the Irish News, business advisers EY (Ernst & Young) have researched the potential economic impact of the pandemic in separate ‘Base Case’ and ‘Prolonged Disruption’ scenarios.

The less severe projection would see a high level of disruption until end of May before business begins to return to normal, but Northern Ireland gross domestic output for the year is estimated to be 6.7 per lower, 78,000 people would lose their jobs and 100,000 be furloughed before a bounce back period later in the year.

But in a prolonged period of the virus, there would be a high level of disruption until end of August, GDP plunges 10 per cent and up to 257,000 people will either lose their job or be furloughed.

That is in stark contrast to pre-Covid-19 figures which forecast an additional 1,000 jobs to be created in the north this year.

No way could the  Executive cope with such outcomes. The best they can do is to make sure Northern Ireland  position is well flagged up with the UK government. The latest subvention is just  a start.

Useful sit. rep. on BBC News NI website.