Election battlegrounds #LE19 : Carntogher

In 2014 Sinn Féin won a bigger percentage of the total seats in Mid Ulster than in any other council area (18 seats out of 40). This time around the party are standing 20 candidates and are targeting new seats in Dungannon and Carntogher to add to their total.

 

Carntogher was its best performing DEA here in terms of first preferences. The party received 61% of the vote in an area that includes Maghera, Swatragh, Gulladuff, Upperlands and Tamlaght O’Crilly.

 

A first preference of 3.6 quotas in 2014 however was not enough to elect 4 councillors and this will be a key target this time around. Their candidates include sitting councillors Brian McGuigan and Sean McPeake. Cora Groogan and Paul Henry have been added to the ticket based in Moneyneena and Maghera respectively.

 

Unionist parties had a combined total of 1.4 quotas in 2014 so a seat here is assured for either the UUP’s Christopher Reid or Kyle Black of the DUP. The latter is the son of prison officer David Black who was murdered by the ‘New IRA’ in 2012. He should be best placed to take this seat though the first preferences between the two parties were separated by just 24 votes in 2014.

 

The TUV are not fielding as they did previously so there are only two unionist parties on the ballot.

 

There is one Independent candidate James Armour who is the Chair of the Maghera Historical Society and the Maghera Agricultural Show.

 

This is one of 16 areas in the north in which Aontú will be putting forward a candidate. Pádraigín Uí Raifeartaigh is the former chairperson of Mid-Ulster Women’s Aid and a local Irish language activist. She is based at the Ballinascreen end of the DEA.

 

Also contesting is the SDLP’s Martin Kearney who polled 0.89 of a quota to take a seat in 2014. The Glenone man will need a similar first preference to retain this.  He also benefited from a unionist surplus here in 2014 to the tune of 284 votes. He will be a benefactor of transfers again in this poll.

 

This is a five seater and it should elect 3 Sinn Féin and 1 DUP. The final seat will be a fight between the SDLP and Sinn Féin’s fourth runner. How the Aontú candidate impacts here on the SDLP or Sinn Féin may prove crucial especially if it comes down to a handful of votes.

 

Sinn Féin will be hopeful that the pattern in the 2017 Westminster election in Mid-Ulster, when they registered their highest percentage vote and the SDLP their lowest, is replicated here. They also need to balance their candidates well. However the SDLP will be hopeful that Kearney’s incumbency will be enough to keep him up close to the quota on first count and transfers will carry him home. The SDLP cannot afford to have any slippage in their first preference vote here.

 

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