Whatever the lobby thinks poll suggests Micheal Martin is preferred to Enda as Taoiseach

For those in the southern press who think a grand coalition is just grand, and imminent, I’m just putting this here…

…more people favoured a Fianna Fail-led minority government (14pc), rising to 37pc of Fianna Fail supporters ahead, of a Fine Gael-led one (8pc), rising to 19pc of Fine Gael supporters.

The poll also found that 70pc of people would vote the same way if a new election was called, rising to 82pc of Fianna Fail supporters, 83pc of Sinn Fein voters but just 75pc of Fine Gael supporters.
It also found 10pc would change the way they voted, highest among well-off AB voters (17pc) and Dublin residents (16pc), while 5pc said it depended and 6pc did not know or expressed no opinion.

When preferences for the next Taoiseach were broken down by parties, a massive 84pc of Fianna Fail supporters said Micheal Martin, but just 54pc of Fine Gael supporters said Enda Kenny. 75pc of Fine Gael supporters.

It also found 10pc would change the way they voted, highest among well-off AB voters (17pc) and Dublin residents (16pc), while 5pc said it depended and 6pc did not know or expressed no opinion.

When preferences for the next Taoiseach were broken down by parties, a massive 84pc of Fianna Fail supporters said Micheal Martin, but just 54pc of Fine Gael supporters said Enda Kenny.

Given the recent record of polling I’d not put too much literal store by this survey. And at 14%, there’s  hardly an acclaimation in the offing for the FF man.

But it’s a more subtle read of the delicate politics of coalition formation in the most distributed Dail in history than the crude arithmetic of a pure seat count. 

Those Dublin figures will be of particular interest to both FF and FG, where the former will be eyeing further gains in any future elections. No party has ruled in the Republic with the sort of tiny beachhead of TDs FF gained for itself in February.

Growing positive sentiment there even at this early stage (when the party has barely said anything in public since February’s election) may further encourage FF to be bold in its short and medium term strategies. Especially with regard to the real parliamentary choices that will face those parties and individuals other than FG and FF when it comes to choosing the Taoiseach.

One thing the press do seem to have right is that prolonged procrastination will not go down well with the southern electorate. But nor, I suspect, will any undue messing or grandstanding from whomever winds up on the opposition benches.