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Restoration: talk of SF monies and DUP peerages
James Kelly wonders if there is actually a deal ahead. Payout time...
THE PUP is to retain its link to the UVF. David Ervine seemed almost grateful to Bertie Ahern for saying loyalists needed time and space to sort themselves out, and he probably appreciated the sweetener from Tony too. However, it came at more than the cost of funding a party linked to the UVF... [more]
IMC: so far so good for the IRA
It seems the first hurdle for restoration of government has been successfully straddled by the IRA, although the latest IMC report has not been released yet, the noises coming from Michael McDowell, one of the IRA's fiercest critics, are very positive. Paisley still locked in the seventeenth century?
Daily Ireland doesn't believe Ian Paisley is serious about striking a deal. Watching the paint dry...
As Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern meet today, the top of the agenda will be the IRA. However, there is little prospect of anything moving until the Unionists are convinced that the IRA has effectively gone away for good. As Tommie Gorman pointed out on Morning Ireland this morning, the generation of wish lists is something of an art form, compromise isn't. Welcome to the realm of watching paint dry. Investigation may put back constitutional re-start
Well it looks like the DUP source who joked about four years till the restart of politics may have been closer to the mark than was previously obvious. David McKittrick wonders that if the current investigations do find the large scale money laundering operations hinted at in the media, what are implications for the process - mandate or no mandate. Hearts and Minds tonight
Hearts and Minds has Jim Alistair and one of Sinn Fein's coolest performers, Mary Lou McDonald each fielding some of the key issues that will dominate politics over the next six months. Allister lays out some of the keynotes from his party's 64 page dossier handed into Downing Street - "there is no going back to the agreement of December 2004". For her part McDonald plays every screw ball very deftly. A shared future is your only man...
Bertie Ahern talking to the Seanad today, laid out the long promised framework of participation of Northern Irish voices in the Oireachtas. Hat tip Dave. [more]
How will Sinn Fein react to DUP's demands?
Hearts and Minds tonight: the DUP today presented the Prime Minister with a thick dossier of confidence building measures for Unionists, we find out what objections Sinn Fein might have as they press their own case at Downing Street. Beginning with TUS and onwards...?
TUAS is the old acronymn which several people have argued over the precise meaning of. But Brian Walker argues that in the wake of the disarmament of the IRA, has to be understood by a new one, TUS (Totally Unarmed Strategy - also Irish for 'beginning' or 'start'). He goes on trace the specific ground on which negotiations will be played. The policing issue looks like the most substantive, whilst the issue of what's to be done about the on the runs (OTRs) is set to be most controversial. [more]
Negotiations: another day one
The horse trading begins with meetings at Downing Street today, between Tony Blair and each of the only two serious players left in the game - Sinn Fein and the DUP. How long will it take. Sinn Fein want the DUP to talk with them face to face now. But the DUP are playing this long. One senior source in the party joked yesterday that it may not take four months, so much as four years to do a deal. But of course, this is politics and things can change, for the better or the worse. DUP determined to tip scale back?
Well, we're entering the phoney war. Phoney, not because there isn't a conflict, but because we'll get no idea of when the real chess game (or is draughts?) begins. The suspicion is that the IRA will hold the line for the next report and a bit of the IMC, and the governments will start transfering pressure on to the DUP. Rumour has it that the 50 page document is now closer to sixty. Peter Robinson was in Blackpool today arguing that governments had already tipped too much in Sinn Fein's direction, in advance of the inevitable round of horse trading. Profile: Reverend Harold Good
Exclusively on Slugger the Rev Harold Good, one of the two indenpendent witnesses overseeing the decommissioning of IRA talks to journalist John O'Farrell and about his life and his committment to his ministry of reconciliation. [more]
The long goodbye to follow the farewell to arms
The Economist, calls this week's developments the only way you can. Not by reading into the clarity (or rather the lack thereof) around the act itself, but into the political frame around the act (subs needed). In particular the DUP: [more]
The challenge to Unionists over the next four months
Alex Kane ruminates on the innate challenges of the next four months in the interrim before the two IMC reorts delegated to adjudicate on the integrity of the IRA ceasefire are published. The DUP has to seriously consider the political choices that face it: namely an imperfect situation with devolution; or ongoing powerlessness under direct rule. The UUP must invest the time in re-connecting with the party's grass roots. [more]
Time for bombast is over...
Jude Collins believes the IRA has turned the tables on the DUP. It now puts demands on the DUP to find new more nuanced responses in dealing with Sinn Fein in the run up to the second IMC report in January. Campbell: much to be done before restoration
Gregory Campbell takes on some of the media and other speculation that the DUP can be dragged into negotiations on the IMC's judgement of the IRA. He lists a number of issues that have not been addressed whilst the governments have been concentrating on accommodating Sinn Fein's needs. You might say it was the DUP's own Equality agenda. [more]
Adams: the place it takes us all to...
At risk of being slapped down for hubris, Gerry Adams captured something genuinely important probably for the first time in three years, when he said: "In calling upon Unionists to think beyond the moment, to think about the future, we are mindful that we need to do the same. We need to unite orange and green. We need to create a space that unionists can share with us on the basis of equality. That is a huge challenge for republicans." And on the day itself: "...all us need to think beyond it. We need to think beyond the moment. It is not the leap itself but the place that it takes us all that is important." Your move now Doctor Paisley?
Danny Morrison in his Daily Ireland column today confesses to more than once playing Paisley the man rather than the ball. He goes on to make the point that the DUP will need to be shown patience, but that they face a challene to play a postive move in response to the disarmament of the IRA. [more]
Kennedy underscores integrity of witnesses
The Irish Times leads with Danny Kennedy's criticism of the DUP's attack on the IRA appointed clergyman witnesses. As apparently does today's Daily Ireland front page - but it doesn't normally go on line until 3.30. Is there (political) life beyond the siege?
As we said in A Long Peace (chapter 3 - facing the dilemma), in a settled conflict situation, people should judge their opponents by their actions, not their words. It was true of the Northern Bank robbery and the ruthless killing of Robert McCartney. But the same is also true of the decommissioning of the IRA yesterday. [more]
Unionism to come under pressure to respond
Whilst there's a party atmosphere in Republican west Belfast, there is a strong feeling that the ball is now in the court of the Unionists, not least the DUP. The party's 'hard man' Ian Paisley Junior is leading much of the party's public countermoves at the moment. He characterises the IRA's move as phoney decommissioning, and prepares his team for the public and private pressure which is likely to follow: [more]
Amnesty proposals questioned...
THE Government is to allow suspected IRA fugitives 'on the run' back into the UK. However, Alliance's David Ford isn't convinced that the IRA will afford people on the run from the IRA the same courtesy. Colombia 3 Quizzed by Gardai
The Colombia Three are being questioned in police stations in Dublin. Victim's View
Aileen Quinton, whose mother was killed in the 1987 Remembrance Sunday bombing in Enniskillen has decribed her difficulties with recent Government actions in the Belfast News Letter [more]
Devil's in detail of long negotiations ahead...
Good old Newshound. John has Frank Millar's analysis in the Irish Times from Saturday. He's not buying the Gerry has sold out on the revolution line. Instead he believes the seemingly never-ending process will continue, and make the next tranche of negotiations much more complex and problematic for all parties. [more]
DUP lines up with its own conditions
The DUP lays out some of its own conditions before any face to face contact will made with Sinn Fein: [more]
Empey threats...
AS we await the fourth (and final?) act of IRA decommissioning, Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey has threatened to introduce sanctions - his party will refuse to co-operate with North-South bodies set up under the Agreement - if Northern Irish politicians are granted speaking rights in the Irish parliament, the Dail. [more]
Hain lays out the timeline...
Peter Hain in the Guardian is interesting. He is clearly in the believer camp - well I guess he has to be, it's now his plan. He insists this is no Groundhog Day event. He cites two reasons: "One is its clarity and lack of conditionality. The other is the degree of internal consultation that followed Gerry Adams's call last April for the IRA to step away from physical-force republicanism and to embrace democracy". [more]
Words, actions and the future of the IRA...
In January 2003, I sat down and penned what turned out to be a reasonably accurate picture of the twelve months that were to follow. It wasn't rocket science. All the main parties were committed (publicly at least) to a resolution of the governmental impasse. The choreography wasn't set, but commitment to dance was. The following year, in the wake of the November elections of 2003, I was asked to repeat the feat, but it eluded me. The Northern Bank robbery put the tin hat on a possible deal before Christmas last year, and all bets were off once again. [more]

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