Update: Ah, William, you may just have gotten it wrong after all - thanks Henry!

Nice little parable, on how irresistible it is to tell the truth, and how impossible it is to get it perfect:

“You say there’s nothing that you know for sure? What about whether you have a nose? No? But what’s that thing just south of your eyes and north of your mouth? And what’s holding your glasses up?” It is a characteristic relativist claim that, in principle, we can always make up alternative versions of the stories that we tell about the world. But one finds, if one actually tries, that it is surprisingly hard to do so. “Maybe it’s all just a dream?” Well, maybe; but how would that explain what holds your glasses up? Explaining, in any detail, why things are as they appear to be is hard; science is our best try so far, and it generally succeeds only under extreme idealization from much of the data.

He goes further on the irresistibility of fact:

Blackburn is, pretty much, an absolutist about scientific truth. You might thus expect that he would also run a “correspondence” theory of what such truth consists in: on the one hand, there’s the theory that the Earth revolves around the Sun; and, on the other hand, there’s the theory-independent fact that the Earth does revolve around the Sun. And it’s the fact that makes the theory true. But this kind of account of what truth is has become unfashionable of late. It is argued that, since we must always approach the world with some or other theory in mind, we couldn’t, even in principle, know about how the facts are “in and of themselves”, independent of our theories. Blackburn treats this line of thought with some respect, but it seems to make the same confusion between semantics and epistemology scouted in the previous paragraph. Furthermore, such arguments must be unsound; it is precisely the virtue of Scientific Realism that it shows how we can come to know about facts that aren’t theory-dependent. It is the main point of Scientific Realism that only their correspondence to theory-independent facts would explain why our theories are successful.

After some mind numbing mental (ontological, epistemological and semantic) gymnastics, he concludes that:

Not only is truth a semantic notion (rather than an ontological or epistemic one) but, together with reference, it is the semantic notion par excellence. Go ahead: try to build a theory of mental or linguistic representation without it; I’ll bet you’ll find that you can’t. The consequence is that, pretty inevitably, philosophers who claim they can dispense with a robust notion of truth are required also to claim that they can do without robust notions of mental and linguistic representation; hence without the sort of common-sense psychological explanations that attribute what people do and say to the contents of their beliefs and desires.

The current political and media pressure on the DUP masks the success of that party on a number of fronts:

Despite Ian Paisley's posturing, the word "No" has been removed from the DUP lexicon. And despite his recent and prolonged return to rude good health, the Democratic Unionist leadership is more collective and (one might say) more ecumenical. It is now a sophisticated professional organisation that reads the political runes as well as the next.

One of their more successful slogans has been "no guns, no government". Admittedly the success of that policy owes more to geopolitics and the playing out of 9/11. But the fact remains that all shades of unionism have stuck to it tenaciously.

The second has been the constant refrain of "Sinn Féin/IRA" (and/or vice versa). So successful has it been that it has picked up prominent cheerleaders in Dublin. Indeed it may be too successful, in that the IRA adapted and inverted its meaning in P. O'Neill's statement of July 28th last when the movement sent out a message of defiance. . . and of continuity: "We believe there is now an alternative way to achieve this [ Irish unity]". The IRA has now become the handmaiden to Sinn Féin.

But in spite of the undoubtedly powerful politics of decommissioning and the organisational strength and intelligence of the DUP, not everything augurs for a successful and peaceful outcome:

The Sinn Féin president has produced his wish-list and the DUP are preparing 50 pages of demands for the Blair government. As recent violence indicates, the broader unionist community is dysfunctional and there has been a sad absence of political leadership. Republicans are in denial. The governments are in flux and continuity cannot be guaranteed.

Adams, who was briefly the IRA chief of staff in the 1970s, is now a bearded visage for the global Clinton brand, an instant signifier of ex-President Bill's status as an international statesman and totem of racial, ethnic and religious reconciliation. Ten days ago Adams was a guest, speaking on "religion and conflict", at the inaugural meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative in New York. (Funny, republicans always used to insist the Northern struggle was not about religion but about imperialism.)

Adams's account of the three-day meeting appears in Ireland's Village magazine, under the fitting headline, "Clinton shows way towards elimination of poverty". Adams tells readers that the $15,000-a-head "action-orientated" conference was attended mainly by "people committed to multilateralism and collective action in global affairs". Ah, well, that's all right then: thanks to Gerry we now know such a (totally meaningless) commitment is apparently shared by Tony Blair, Rupert Murdoch, George Bush Sr, Shimon Peres and Condoleezza Rice, along with Mrs Bill, George Soros and their "liberal" like.

Adams oozes empty anti-poverty platitudes like he's been sharing a pint with Bono and Bob Geldof. (The only thing remotely edifying about his article is the photograph, from the conference floor, of Angelina Jolie's intent, collagen-enhanced profile. Let's hope she's truly committed to multilateralism and collective action in global affairs.)

It's a varied The programme including inputs from Eammon McCann and Malachi O'Doherty. A "Have I got views for you" session rounds it off on Saturday. The organisers have wisely chosen not to run anything on Sunday, no doubt to let the more devote journos slip of their chosen form of worship on the morning after.

The eye witness wrote:

Among the crowd of residents, journalists and observers, a group of Italian Fascists wearing Northern Cross emblazoned handkerchiefs provoked curious looks but no intervention... Although the Italians (apparently proponents of a weird, pan-Catholic solidarity) would eventually be told to leave, the fact that their presence was tolerated for hours was indicative of the absence of political content in the demonstration.

The conclusions and recommendations of the PAC report are -

The complex funding and accountability arrangements

1. Navan had direct funding arrangements with ten organisations, including four government departments. The lack of formal, clearly defined lines of responsibility and of a co-ordinated approach to the operation of the Centre created confusion. The Accounting Officer for the Northern Ireland Department of Culture, Arts and Leisure stated that her Department was only responsible for 2% of the expenditure on the Navan Centre. We recommend that there should be clear understandings between departments at the start of cross-cutting projects such as this and responsibility for accountability arrangements should be clearly established.

2. The financial viability of the Centre depended crucially on revenue generated by visitors. Because the numbers of visitors fell considerably short of forecasts the Centre was in financial difficulties for most of its existence. Although it was clear from an early stage that the Centre would not be commercially viable, no one was prepared to face up to this reality, and there was a continual drip feeding of funds to the Centre over a number of years until it closed in 2001.

The over optimistic visitor numbers and the marketing strategy

3. The original forecasts of visitor numbers were grossly misleading and were clearly based on the wrong comparators. This meant that the Centre was always going to have an uphill struggle to survive. There is a need to ensure, in the case of future projects, that suitable comparators are used and that visitor forecasts are strongly challenged to ensure that they are realistic before any decision is taken to provide funding.

4. We were surprised to find that when visitor numbers were below expectations, and concerns were being expressed about the Centre's viability, that more of an effort was not made to promote the Centre and attract more visitors. In fact, we were amazed to find that the marketing manager had been made redundant and the marketing strategy had not been updated for two and a half years during a key period for the Centre.

The unsatisfactory monitoring arrangements

5. Given the involvement of so many funding sources for the Centre, it is disappointing that the need for lead responsibility on the part of one department was not recognised. As a result the monitoring of the operation of the Navan Centre was totally unsatisfactory. It is a cause for some concern that there was no formally agreed protocol established between departments on Accounting Officer responsibility for the Centre.

6. There should have been a clear and formal understanding of the business relationship between the lead department and the Centre. The absence of such an understanding meant that, for example, for much of its life no department was carrying out a regular and detailed review of the underlying trading performance of the Centre.

Or, as the general conclusion, more pointedly, says -

Northern Ireland has fewer departments and operates on a much smaller and more intimate scale than Whitehall and it is disappointing that there is not more evidence of effective joined-up government in this case.

The report highlights the Investment Strategy for Northern Ireland [which I would link directly to.. but the website (part of the Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister) doesn't seem to exist.. despite the links to it in the statement on 20 December 2004 by then-Finance Minister, Ian Pearson.] -

13.2. Infrastructure Deficit

Large deficiencies exist in infrastructure and public service provision in Northern Ireland. This is largely due to a legacy of under-funding in comparison to other UK regions. Not only does Northern Ireland have an infrastructure and investment deficit, but the problem is further exacerbated by the fact that the shortfall is concentrated in areas that are key to the economy’s growth and prosperity. Unemployment is still above the UK average; a large percentage of the population depend on benefits; health service performance is poor and there exists a huge difference in health status between the best and worst off. There is general agreement that failure to adequately address this infrastructure deficit and increase investment levels will seriously hinder future economic growth.

13.3. Investment Requirements

The ISNI outlines the possibility of delivering £16 billion (€23.6 billion) of investment in key infrastructure by the end of 2015 (at current values). This strategy aims to put in place the infrastructure that is needed to enable Government to deliver public services throughout Northern Ireland that are suitable for the 21st Century. Due to the suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive from October 2002, this important strategic document has not been adopted.

And the A&L Goodbody report goes on to say this -

13.6. Public Private Partnerships (PPP) Opportunities

Given the projected shortfall in capital provision over the next decade, it is accepted at Government level that there is significant potential for PPPs to be developed in order to achieve the goal of eliminating the infrastructural deficit and stimulating economic development in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland also has a clear policy framework for PPPs.

As the report also points out -

13.4. Funding Options

The UK Budget (2005) announced a rise in capital investment for Northern Ireland of approximately 30% over previous levels bringing the budget for capital investment to over £1.2 billion annually, an increase of some £200 million. Despite this increase, there will still be a significant difference in terms of public investment levels required over the next 10 years by the various Northern Ireland Government Departments and the allocations provided under current budgeting strategies.

The gross investment deficit [in NI] amounts to approximately £7 billion over the next decade with investment need significantly outstripping capital baseline funding. This highlights a clear potential for PPPs to address the capital provision shortfall.[added emphasis]

pete baker @ 02:26 PM | Comments (31)

Where Victims Fit In
Aileen Quinton's article from the News Letter last week about pressures felt by victims:

In light of the recent rioting, anger seems to be the emotion of the moment. I am angry too.

Angry about terrorism, prisoner releases, OTRs, RIR disbandment, parades rerouting, pressure to have terrorists in government and the suspicion that we will be increasingly maliciously misgoverned until we do.

All this with the odious thread of appeasement running through it
all. I am angry that the government has fostered a situation where
there is no distinction between right and wrong and where the only thing that matters is what you can get away with. However, we do not need to chart our path using the IRA's or our government's moral compass.

The rioting should not have taken place, primarily because it was plain wrong. In addition, the images on our screens will have widened the grin on the faces of our enemies, including the people who planned authorised and carried out my mother's murder.

Over the years there have been four main things that have kept a lid on my anger, The first two are not wanting to do anything that would reflect badly on my mother and an attempt to consider others needs and sensitivity. The third was endeavouring to be responsible as to the potential outcome.

However the fourth significant one was not wanting to risk being lectured or criticised by other people for my grief and anger or for not coping. Most of the time I simply did not have the courage not to be nice. I have been involved off and on in trying to raise awareness of issues of murder and disaster victims. I made a TV programme which was recommended as a training video by a HO report into disaster response. I have given talks and written articles. One key issue I
highlight is the pressure victims can be put under to fit into what other people require of them.

We are treated as poor wee things when someone wants to dispense us a dollop of good and on the other hand expected to be brave and inspiring on cue. Our grief and our anger are things we must keep to ourselves. I had the distinct impression that as long as the veneer held, it did not matter that I was dying inside. I have said over and over again that one of the most important thing victims needs is to claim the right to their own feelings and that one of the best things that anyone else can do is to give them that permission.

As part of the victims' network, I was recently took part in a 5Live radio program, with Dania, who lost her sister in the July bombing in London. She spoke about the pressure to be nice and the feeling
she had been given that her emotions were "wrong".

I am angry and frustrated that even with all my efforts in the past and what I hear about advances in supporting victims after such events, Dania had to get the vital message that she was entitled to be angry, thorough a radio program two months after the event!

There are, of course many in Northern Ireland still waiting years after their lives have been shattered, for their needs to be properly addressed.

The support was not one-way traffic. Out of the blue Dania threw me by telling me how angry she was about the release of "that terrorist" . She could not understand why we were letting the Shankhill bomber out of prison.

It is so rare that anyone except "ourselves" cares about Northern Ireland terrorism. Our victims are an embarrassing reminder of something people want to pretend is not happening and indeed never happened. We are the after-taste of an exceptionally synthetic lemon meringue pie. By not accepting the concept of the cuddly Provos, Dania validated my anger.

Victims need to come together more often to find their voice and support each other. Others can feel threatened by this idea. Politically it is a potentially powerful force that may not prove easy to control or to buy off.

Also, some in the "trauma industry" can feel that this encroaches on their territory. If we all start helping each other, where does that leave them?

Victims should not have to tailor their needs to suit anyone else's agenda or expectations. So you can look elsewhere for your docile, grateful, brave and inspiring victims. I am a "bad-assed" angry one and to quote a phrase used by others to us "get over it!"

Philip Weir @ 02:11 PM | Comments (40)

In case you've missed it
Mick noted The Guardian's Ship of Fools' funniest religious joke the other day. In today's Guardian, comedian Emo Philips, quite rightly, points out - Hey!.. that's my joke.. and adds a couple more for the sheer hell of it. heh.

pete baker @ 12:02 PM | Comments (4)

Businesses want action not the Assembly
The inaugural Northern Ireland Business Monitor 2004-2005 has found that a whopping 77% of the 2,000 businesses surveyed felt that the Assembly suspension has had no effect on them. Only 16% said the suspension made their situation worse. However, the report suggests that "many businesses do not see local politicians as being adequately supportive of local businesses".

"The absence of the Assembly was significant in making prospects worse
for the farming businesses (28%) and construction (23%). All the other sectors eported adverse impacts on less than
18% of the respondents. Reciprocally, in these other sectors over 75% said the suspension made no difference."

One trend revealed by the four surveys is that regard for the supportiveness of local politicians seems to be falling.

"In the first quarter of 2005, 25% of local politicians were credited with being supportive in helping local business. This contrasted with 29% in the Spring quarter of 2004. In contrast, the
proportion regarded as unsupportive rose from 38% in early 2004 to 41%
earlier this year.
49% of farm business executives see a supportive role from local
politicians while the next highest perception of support comes from the providers of professional services: 35%. All the other
sectors attract less than 30% making this assessment.

"The most critical views of the unsupportive relationship with local
politicians came from manufacturers (45%), distribution (39%), leisure services (39%) and construction (37%)."

While praising the region's broadband access, the firms surveyed said the introduction of a corporate tax regime which "levels the playing field" would be the greatest incentive to enterprise growth.
A majority support the introduction of the euro (54% say yes now or when conditions are right) although a big minority still say no (36% say never).

The key messages businesses send out in the report are:
Lower business insurance premiums (59%)
Reduce red tape (51%)
Introduce a special trading status for Northern Ireland (that would give a more favourable tax regime) (28%)
Better vocational training arrangements (18%)
Support a more entrepreneurial culture (19%)

The farming sector continues to perform poorly with just 10% reporting a turnover in the first 3 months of 2005 while, at the other end of the spectrum, 44% of businesses that are providing
professional services said that turnover had increased.

George Burns @ 11:36 AM | Comments (5)

Loyalist decommissioning must be upfront and open
Like many things in Northern Ireland the arrangements around the decommissioning were made entirely in secret, and not simply the act itself, but who was chosen and when. That secretiveness alone is what makes it suspect in eyes of Unionist observer, argues Lindy McDowell. She ends with a typically wry but sharp perception:

Meanwhile, it is weird, is it not, to hear Gerry invoking British intelligence assessments as proof that the Provies have indeed come up with the goods. When Gerry cites the "securocrats" you know it has to be seismic.

More seismic still though is the opportunity this week's move provides for pressure to now be piled upon the loyalists to handover their arms too. And you can forget the negotiation, Mr Hain, the behind-the-doors toadying to them. Round up the brigadiers and assorted officers commanding and hold them until the weapons are produced.

In a way that, this time round, truly is "transparent and verifiable."

Mick Fealty @ 11:02 AM | Comments (36)

The wrong man woman!
I'd say the caption writer at AP or Newsday has been given some serious lattitude on this photograph featuring what he/she calls 'Leaders of the Irish Republican Army'. Thanks to reader Jeremy.

Mick Fealty @ 10:57 AM | Comments (9)

September 28, 2005

Will tuck shops be banned?
I can accept that a good balanced diet assists learning, especially at primary and secondary school level, it would appear to make sense - although the actual evidence seems more anecdotal than scientific so far. But is it really necessary to introduce new legislation to force schools to apply that understanding to the food they supply to their students? and are NI schools really waiting until that legislation is introduced?

pete baker @ 10:12 PM | Comments (16)

Campbell: much to be done before restoration
Gregory Campbell takes on some of the media and other speculation that the DUP can be dragged into negotiations on the IMC's judgement of the IRA. He lists a number of issues that have not been addressed whilst the governments have been concentrating on accommodating Sinn Fein's needs. You might say it was the DUP's own Equality agenda.

There has to be an ending of the jobs bias, cultural shortfall and investment under-spend in the unionist community. The future of the Royal Irish Regiment has not as yet been finalised. The minority Protestant recruitment to the Police is intolerable and must end. The weakening and alienation of unionism has developed over a long period of time and has been ignored for too long. While it would be ideal if these were all remedied in a few months, it is difficult to see how. Unless of course there is an immediate change of heart by the Government and a speedy implementation of a new Equity Programme aimed at ensuring this package is delivered.

Mick Fealty @ 08:21 PM | Comments (36)

"Our vision for Northern Ireland is our vision for Wales"
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, and Wales, Peter Hain's speech to the Labour Party conference hasn't exactly generated a lot of coverage beyond a niche market. The Belfast Telegraph reported before the speech was delivered.. and there's not much more beyond what he has said previously - apart from the comparison with Wales.. but the BBC reports Hain's somewhat bizarre claim, made after the speech, that releasing the inventory of decommissioned estimate of PIRA weapons would "risk the security of Northern Ireland, or national security.. by compromising intelligence sources".

John de Chastelain cited confidentiality but he seems prepared to release the actual inventory when his mandate is completed.[pdf file]

So, no comparison will be available.. even if that point is ever reached.

pete baker @ 07:11 PM | Comments (33)

we should probably juggle at this point
Government, according to Prime Minister Tony Blair, is a bit like learning to unicycle.. No, really! The admission came during a Question and Answer session with party delegates in Brighton.. chaired by Eddie Izzard.. whose presence may, or may not, have had something to do with the somewhat surreal flights of fancy between more scripted serious questions.

From the transcript -

Eddie Izzard[EI]: Okay. Thank you very much to the ladies and gentlemen of the media. We’ll just wait a brief second here while everyone goes. And we should probably juggle at this point or do some strange song and dance routine.

Tony Blair[TB]: Errr…

EI: But I’m not going to do that. It’s a hypothetical.

TB: Can you juggle?

EI: I can actually juggle. Very badly. I can unicycle better than I can juggle, but it’s never been…

TB: Yeah, my unicycle is not absolutely…

[Laughs]

TB: It’s not great but…

EI: Here’s a tip: if you want to learn the unicycle you start on the big ones because the small ones are harder because it’s the pendulum swing - the small ones have a very fast pendulum swing, the bigger ones have a slower, easier to learn on.

TB: Bit like government really isn’t it!

Eddie Izzard also took the opportunity to promote his idea of an elected monarchy -

TB: I was just doing something with Billy Bragg next door actually who’s got a very interesting idea of House of Lords reform, but as I always say to Billy, I mean if I could understand it I might do it but I mean it gets very…

EI: Well I’ve got an idea of an elected monarchy. That was my idea. But… I put it to Prince Charles and he went ‘argh..’

TB: [Laughs]

EI: But I think everyone would like that except, and it would get the monarchy into shape. You know take the top 50 blue bloods and then they’ve got to all go and put themselves to be head of state and then you know, we’d say let’s go and put Harry, let’s go put William, let’s go out one of the other ones, and elected monarchy could be the future of, through the third millennium…

TB: I’m not saying anything! I’m going to just let you talk!

[Laughs]

EI: I just thought, it was an idea!

TB: There are some subjects that are big, you know…

EI: You don‘t need to go there! I’m just going to keep repeating it in places.

TB: Don’t go there!

EI: Okay. Erm, well we’ll move on.

I wonder if Eddie would be available for some of our local parties' conferences...

pete baker @ 03:11 PM | Comments (1)

The breadth and depth of the IRA's arsenal
Chris Thornton has been ruminating on the fast moving events of Monday pm, and traces what details that actually did emerge despite the General's concern to maintain a degree of secrecy. It included a flame thrower. I can't remember that one ever reported being used!

Mick Fealty @ 11:39 AM | Comments (19)

IRA must also give up summary violence
As John O'Sullivan points out in his Chicago Sun-Times, it's not all over for Sinn Fein either. The violence has continued after previous IRA acts of decommissioning. But he also believes that Unionism's case for holding the higher moral ground was severely damaged by their acquience to the Loyalist rioting and intimidation campaign of the late summer and early September:

Strong rumors suggest that what the IRA destroyed is the heavy stuff it no longer needs against the British Army. It is quietly keeping the smaller arms it needs to enforce its authority against dissenters in the Catholic ghettoes. That will be enough, however, for London, Dublin and Washington to declare that the IRA has purged its sins and that Sinn Fein is eligible to return to power.

Until two weeks ago political resistance from Protestant and Unionist parties might have obstructed this. It still might. But the moral authority of the Unionists to resist has been seriously undermined by the Protestant ''loyalist'' riots that erupted across Northern Ireland a fortnight ago and changed the political atmosphere of the province.

Mick Fealty @ 10:53 AM | Comments (1)

Adams: the place it takes us all to...
At risk of being slapped down for hubris, Gerry Adams captured something genuinely important probably for the first time in three years, when he said: "In calling upon Unionists to think beyond the moment, to think about the future, we are mindful that we need to do the same. We need to unite orange and green. We need to create a space that unionists can share with us on the basis of equality. That is a huge challenge for republicans." And on the day itself: "...all us need to think beyond it. We need to think beyond the moment. It is not the leap itself but the place that it takes us all that is important."

Mick Fealty @ 10:27 AM | Comments (37)

Your move now Doctor Paisley?
Danny Morrison in his Daily Ireland column today confesses to more than once playing Paisley the man rather than the ball. He goes on to make the point that the DUP will need to be shown patience, but that they face a challene to play a postive move in response to the disarmament of the IRA.

By Danny Morrison:

I received a letter on Monday from a reader, John, in Ballina, County Mayo. He was talking about Sinn Fein’s response to the DUP last July when the IRA announced an end to its armed struggle. He said: “The DUP’s reaction to it was predictable – it will take them a long time to adjust to the new realities. But Sinn Fein should not be taunting them, by highlighting its (the DUP’s) inadequacy to deal with the new situation. If Sinn Fein is truly republican it will try and entice everyone along to share in the new and better society it hopes to create for everyone. In the first instance it will have to do this in cooperation with unionists in government in the North.”

Actually, Sinn Fein didn’t taunt the DUP – though I have, on many occasions, and on several occasions most recently, because of a visceral disrespect I have for that party’s leader, Ian Paisley, which spans forty years. The feeling is no doubt mutual. To me he is false, a bluffer, a hypocrite, a sectarian, a coward and an opportunist. However, if he ever apologises for his wrongs, demonstrates contriteness and makes good, in a verifiable fashion in front of international and independent witnesses (there’s no need for a photograph), I am sure that over a period of time I might be able to forgive him. But he really needs to begin soon. Because I might move on without him.

But seriously, I also have to remember that Ian Paisley is the chosen leader of the unionist people in the North – and although that also provokes some despair it has to invoke some respect, and I and many have to set aside our feelings if we nationalists and unionists are to realise a deal, share power and govern together. God bless Sinn Fein in their dealings with the Reverend. They will need an ocean of patience and a ton of cotton wool.

On the nationalist and republican side there is willingness to reconciliation, ultimately demonstrated by the unprecedented move of the IRA to put all its weapons beyond use, witnessed by General John de Chastelain’s commission and two independents. The extent of this move was succinctly described by former IRA prisoner Tommy McKearney in this paper yesterday as “an incredibly significant demonstration of republican hope over experience.”

That experience involved sectarian attacks on the nationalist community throughout the existence of the Northern Ireland state. The existence of an armed IRA, particularly after 1969, and because of 1969, was a comfort blanket to nationalists in interface areas and acted as a check on loyalist paramilitaries. The demobilisation of the IRA has, undoubtedly, unnerved many, many republicans. But times have changed. Despite the likeness, the PSNI is not the RUC and will not be leading any charge into the Falls, the way the RUC did in 1969. Increased scrutiny of the PSNI can only make it more accountable.

Leaders within both unionism and republicanism will be required to gamble: unionists taking the IRA at its word, republicans the public pledges of the British government, guaranteed by the Irish government, in lieu of or in combination with unionist pledges to work the institutions. Deceit on either side would blow up in all our faces and lead to distrust on an unimaginable scale.

The great irony now is that Ian Paisley, the man who destabilised any predecessor who dared to depart an inch from unionist fundamentalism, is himself now in the position of having to make a choice between pragmatism and dogmatism, which would only further impoverish his own community.

So what about the willingness of the DUP to deal? How are we to read its press conference last Monday?

There are many theories. Some are of the view that Ian Paisley would like to retire having become First Minister. However, the cost for him personally might be too great – having as his Deputy First Minister, Gerry Adams or Martin McGuinness, both of whom he has described as ‘Sinn Fein/IRA’ and pledged throughout his career to smash. There could be no greater demonstration of his failure than for him to have to share power with them. Nor does the ongoing invective of the DUP suggest a party that is preparing its base for a return to power-sharing government. Indeed, Paisley came out of his meeting with John de Chastelain yesterday stating that the whole act of the IRA putting all of its weapons beyond use was a ‘cover-up’!

Another theory has it that Peter Robinson would like to do a deal, and thought that he might be First Minister, but was thwarted by Ian Og who talked his father out of a deal. That conversation wouldn’t have taken long. Last week Ian Og said that unionists preferred direct rule than to sharing power with Sinn Fein, except his language was more colourful.

It would be patronising to feel sorry for the unionists, the debacle of the recent rioting, for their PR deficiencies and for a leadership which lacks courage and substitutes ranting for rational discussion. The majority voted for Paisley but there must be scores of thousands of unionists who despair at where he is leading them.

But we have lives to live and to get on with. We need good government and we need representative government. If the DUP regrettably opts out of this process it does so as an act of free will not as an act of persecution or discrimination. And so we’ll need a different type of government or a rearrangement in the current system of government – one which takes on the views of elected representatives not opposed to reconciliation. That certainly requires greater involvement from Dublin to add its weight to ensuring that the British address the many outstanding issues, from inequality to policing, and get on with implementing change and tackling the institutionalised sectarianism within northern society.

What historic times we live in! Those who justified repression and repressive laws, and the state of the state, or who refused to negotiate on the pretext that there was an IRA armed campaign no longer have an excuse.

With all due apologies to John from Ballina, County Mayo, the party which really has to bite the IRA bullet is the DUP.

First published in on Wednesday 28th September 2005

Mick Fealty @ 10:18 AM | Comments (17)

Kennedy underscores integrity of witnesses
The Irish Times leads with Danny Kennedy's criticism of the DUP's attack on the IRA appointed clergyman witnesses. As apparently does today's Daily Ireland front page - but it doesn't normally go on line until 3.30.

Mick Fealty @ 10:09 AM | Comments (8)

New operating system for Northern Ireland?

At a time when Northern Ireland is awash with translations, here's a new one for your PC, sent to us by my brother. You'll need to click on the image to get the all-important detail.

Mick Fealty @ 09:48 AM | Comments (23)

Díchoimisiúnaithe agus curtha as úsáid
Tomás Ó Conghaile ag an Óstán Culloden i gCul Trá de Luain, le cuntas ar an raiteas stairiuil ón Ghinearál de Chastelaine agus an dearbhú ó na finnéithe, an tUrramach Harold Good agus an tAthair Alex Reid.

Mick Fealty @ 07:09 AM | Comments (6)

What sparked the fire...
DAVID Gordon goes back to his old stomping ground to find out what sparked the recent loyalist rioting in Newtownabbey. Excuses or reasons..?

Part one of this series is here.

Belfast Gonzo @ 03:51 AM | Comments (9)

Out with the crystal ball...
SO where do we go from here? Read on, for a compilation of rambling late night thoughts , mainly about unionism and loyalism but with a fair bit on republicanism. Bet that’s got you hooked...

IT’S the wrong question, but since you asked - has the IRA completely disarmed? Well, no-one ever can really know, whether you’re John de Chastelain or Brian Keenan. The offensive materiel will have gone, with heavy weaponry no longer of any real practical military use now either. Of the rest, some is likely to have been nicked, some will have been taken by dissidents, and no doubt a few handguns will be kept handy for the odd occasion when community restorative justice fails to get the required result or the dissidents gets uppity.

But it looks like the bulk has been done away with, and that’s good enough for Tony - the appearance of progress. A handful outside unionism and even fewer outside Northern Ireland will care.

This was, essentially, a formal conclusion to the ‘armed’ conflict.

But for republicans, the struggle is far from over.

I doubt if total decommissioning would have happened if Sinn Fein hadn’t convinced the IRA how a united Ireland could be achieved by ‘political and peaceful means alone’, and now I have a vision of P O’Neill surreptitiously beavering away through his Oxford English Dictionary to find out just how elastic that meaning can be.

So aside from an old boys’ commemorative association, what else will the IRA morph into? A protection outfit for the SF elite? A fundraising organisation for Sinn Fein (with all the fun and games that could bring)?

Just as loyalists have been applying the republican game-plan to get what they want (“Wreck the place, then hold out your hand and scream ‘Themmuns have one, I want one too!’ until you get it, or at least Tony convinces you that you have it.”), so republicans must have been looking at how to continue the war by other means. Because that’s what politics here is. We seem to be settling down nicely for a kind of ‘civil cold war’.

Different fronts may open. We’ve watched a cultural war already at Drumcree and seen a bit of a sequel this summer in Belfast - though I suspect that the rerouting of an Orange parade was something of a pretext for the violence, as the real target of loyalist rage was the British Government.

You can be sure that unionists will jump on every Provo provocation - real or imagined - but it’s unlikely they won’t find something.

That ‘something’ may have been flagged up by Stormontgate and, no matter who was in the wrong there, I think it pointed ominously to a new battleground behind the scenes. To get political leverage without weapons requires a new approach to gaining the advantage on an opponent. Could political intelligence gathering replace the bomb and the bullet? After all, if unionists get leaks all the time, isn’t it simply replacing the old boy network with the new Broys?

Even if that proves to be wrong, unionists are still going to have to get their heads around the fact that there are a helluva lot of young, intelligent and qualified republicans out there who - through merit, ambition and ability - are going to have their hands on more and more reins of power. Over 3,000 applications have come from the Irish Republic to join the PSNI already, so no-one need kid themselves it isn’t happening already.

There are more degree qualified republican students in Northern Ireland now than ever before, but the perception of the Protestant community is that the unionist middle class leaves here to study elsewhere, never to return, and that the loyalist working class has an aversion to education, as there used to be an expectation of a good job, qualifications or not. That’s all changing, and loyalism hasn’t been coping well with the shift away from the old industries and certainties.

It is still incredibly suspicious of an emergent and confident republicanism, one that often plays by its own rules and gets away with it. The recent loyalist riots were a petulant cry for recognition. That doesn’t justify the violence; it was the natural conclusion of the policy of ‘parity of esteem’.

Government policy aims to finely balance the 'gains' made by the two main communities. What it always failed to recognise was that it if it doesn’t appear to do so, it creates discontent in the other community. Tip the scales too far either way and you end up with a lot of street sweepers on overtime and cops on sick leave.

The problem for loyalism is that it doesn’t feel particularly held in esteem. And that’s pretty much going to continue to be the case when the only perception most of the world has of loyalism is men in bowler hats and swords throwing half-bricks at police. What loyalism requires to reaffirm its esteem in some cases, such as parades through disputed areas, might be too much for others to give. But there are pleas from the Great Unloved that are more reasonable.

I strongly suspect that now that violent republicanism has been sorted, the Secretary of State will turn his attention to loyalism. Like later today, at the Labour Party conference.

In Brighton, Peter will predictably follow the peace process pendulum over to the other side. He remembers from the state of the streets in east Belfast that he hasn’t invited loyalist community representatives around for tea since talk of that £70 million pay-off. He just hasn’t been holding them in high enough esteem lately. Conversely, loyalism dissed him right back in the only way that works with HMG in NI - an anti-State tantrum. The fact that there is no IRA to hit out against doesn’t mean there is no longer a target for loyalists to fire at.

Because loyalism no longer feels that the police - a powerful symbol and arm of the State they ostensibly claim to be loyal to - ‘belongs’ to them, the PSNI became the target in the recent riots. If the PSNI were heavy-handed, then its because they’re pissed off having to act as a sponge for gangs of petrol-bombing 13-year-olds with a passing knowledge of human rights legislation and big brothers with rifles, when they’re copping it in the neck from their Ma for not being able to catch the ordinary decent criminal that nicked old Mrs Smith’s Royal Doulton collection to feed his smack habit.

Loyalists think that they’re getting all the stick, while republicans got the carrots. Curiously, this might open another gap - between unionism and loyalism. Unionist politicians are clearly incapable of stopping loyalist violence, and have been copping flak for their questionable leadership. But loyalism may see the DUP as having ‘failed to stop the rot’ or make gains - and if politics doesn’t work... the self-destructive, nihilistic and intense street burning of late demonstrated pretty clearly that there’s a section of loyalism that no longer really gives a fuck.

Perhaps part of the problem was that unionists tied political progress so closely to IRA decommissioning. It could be that they sowed the seeds of their own irrelevance by making disarmament so central. The entire issue always leaves room for uncertainty, and the spotlight on others, as well as the acclaim. But disarmament is also a symbolic argument - the IRA could rearm if it chose, though it has no reason to - and it is a deal largely between the IRA and British Government.

By stringing out the decommissioning issue and retaining the threat of violence, and, when the threat was probably no longer even real, just doing enough for the two governments, the IRA remained crucial to progress. By never doing enough for unionists, republicanism has kept itself in a key position. It was a successful strategy.

Now loyalism is the same position. Loyalism is the new republicanism. It has, for the wrong reasons, the opportunity to make gains, some of which might actually do some good..

So I wouldn’t see the prospect of loyalist decommissioning as likely any time soon. If loyalists think republicans made gains through holding on to guns, so will loyalists. Because they know violence has paid dividends in the peace process. The thing is, if it follows the republican strategy right through, loyalism knows it has to grow up sooner or later.

This might create opportunities for the DUP, if there are concessions to claim while able to stall for time. The expectation that many have for a restored Assembly soon is fantasy. Sinn Fein may turn its attention South for the next elections, the DUP will be happy to wait for a few IMC reports, and might fancy its chances of finishing off the UUP.

The outside pressure it appears to be under is not real, as the relatively muted ‘unhistoric’ reaction on Monday indicated. The British, Irish and US governments are slightly more sympathetic to unionist mistrust of republicanism these days. DUP pressure will only come from within, and with republicans having bought into the idea of partition until a majority decides otherwise, Paisley won’t be in any rush back to Stormont.

The pot will keep boiling for a long time. Yawn.

Belfast Gonzo @ 03:23 AM | Comments (8)

A wee word...
ANOTHER deliberate slip? :o)

Belfast Gonzo @ 01:51 AM | Comments (0)

September 27, 2005

Tabloid speaks the truth and takes the heat...
If a newspaper's primary role is to speak truth to power, the last place you might expect to find it is amongst a tabloid press, more associated with raking for scandal to end a politician's career. In this week's Blanket, Mick Hall argues that the Sunday World has been speaking its truth in the teeth of some nasty recriminations from one potent seat of power in Northern Ireland - Loyalist paramilitaries.

Mick Fealty @ 10:55 PM | Comments (5)

Real joy for Ulster...
I asked a nationalist friend what he thought about the big event. He just replied, "you mean Sunday?" He wasn't the only one: Ulster Rugby fans for Tyrone!

Mick Fealty @ 09:47 PM | Comments (1)

DUP have left Unionism vulnerable?
Interesting blog from Michael at the Young Unionists. He welcomes what he calls the surrender of the IRA, but is still suspicious that Sinn Fein have a hidden agenda. He bemoans the DUP's refusal to be engaged in any position that might put a brake on Sinn Fein's capacity to wring further concessions out of the governments.

Mick Fealty @ 09:36 PM | Comments (17)

Blair: nothing good comes easy...
Tony Blair opened his speech to the Labour party conference with Northern Ireland.

Amid all the change and progress since our first election victory, it was interesting to see in the film there the pictures of the Good Friday Agreement in April 1998, and then finally, yesterday, the completion of IRA decommissioning.

It has taken many years, and a lot of hard work, but every minute of every hour of every all-night negotiation will have been worth it if it brings lasting peace to Northern Ireland.

And there is a lesson from Northern Ireland. Nothing good comes easy. And in Government, whatever the noise around you, you just have to persevere with the things that really matter.

Mick Fealty @ 09:28 PM | Comments (7)

What's blogging for?
Open discourse, freedom of speech, new and independent voices, knowledge tools, navigation guides to the net, new news carriers, nodes in a global network, virtual conversations. Take your pick. Alan Connor on the BBC Magazine looks at a range of challenges to the independent blogger.

Mick Fealty @ 08:48 PM | Comments (8)

The EU dimension of the IRA decommission
Not surprisingly, the IRA decommission made the headlines all over Europe. For example, Le Monde carried a special dossier with an interview of Adrian Guelke. Back in the European Parliament, it is business as usual, with the expected acrimonial relationship between SF and DUP MEPs to continue. The inability of SF and DUP MEPs to work together on a certain number of issues might have some serious consequences for Northern Ireland.

The absence of working relationship between DUP MEP Jim Allister and SF MEPs will probably continue for a while despite the recent call for 'engagement' by SF MEP Mary Lou McDonald. This might have some serious effects on EU funding in Northern Ireland despite that there is urgency for concerted action. In 2007, we are expected to witness some slight changes in the way the EU distribute its funds. Firstly, the EU Peace II programme will come to an end in December 2006 (just for the year 2005-2006 it represents € 852M). Secondly, as NI will be above 85% of the EU 25 GDP per inhabitants, Northern Ireland will not qualify to apply for EU structural funds at the same level as it currently does. Thirdly and for the same reason, Invest NI will not be allowed to fund the NI economy at the level it does at the moment. Fourth, 2007 will see the budget of the European Rural Development Fund increase from £7 billion per year to £13.7 billion per year but with the absence of agreement over the EU budget, the project is currently on hold. The bottom line of all the issues is the disagreement over the EU budget which might be sorted out during the next Presidency (Austria). As part of the jobs of the MEPs is to approve (or disapprove) the budget proposed by the Council, their jobs are therefore crucial. In this key period of pre-budget negotiations, it would be rational for NI MEPs to present common positions and harmonize their lobbying work so as to maximise the chances to get a new round of EU Peace money, securing the capacity for Invest NI to fund the local economy and defending the rural developments funds. After all it was an alliance of interests between John Hume, Ian Paisley and Jim Nicholson which successfully lobbied the EU Commission for a special EU package of Peace Funds. At a time when NI students are engaged in learning about the EU institutions by making mock debates of the Council of the European Union (pdf), the uncoordinated actions of NI MEPs might not be the example to follow.

Thomas Lefebvre @ 08:32 PM | Comments (5)

in pursuit of critical mass
IN the Irish Examiner, Fergus Finlay calls yesterday's announcement, of decommissioning, a welcome step.. but not one we should be grateful for. He also has an interesting view of the process so far, and of the still distant prospect of SF in government.

From the Irish Examiner -

Those who believe, for instance, that Sinn Féin might be a part of our next government, assuming (which looks almost inevitable now) that Fianna Fáil and the PDs can't make up the numbers, are wrong. And they're wrong for this reason: Sinn Féin is not interested not yet. It is pursuing a political strategy which is aimed at making it the dominant political player in both jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. Until it reaches the critical mass it's aiming for, it won't take the risk of participating in government down here. In Northern Ireland it already has that critical mass - not only in terms of its size, but also in terms of the way government is structured. To coin a phrase, no Sinn Féin, no government.

In other words, it already holds the effective balance of power in Northern Ireland. It will not be content and it will not risk entering Government here, until it really holds the balance of power. And it knows that that's going to take more than one more election. After the next election, even if it was to double its existing number of seats and Fianna Fáil was able to do a deal with them, it would only mean a couple of cabinet seats for Sinn Féin.

That's not real power and Sinn Féin knows it.

Sinn Fein has demonstrated, if nothing else, that it is committed to effective control. It has controlled its own communities for years. It operates within a culture of secrecy and hidden chains of command. As the Northern Bank raid, the return of the Colombia Three, and the recent visit by the "leadership" to Castlerea prison all demonstrate, it operates to its own agenda and no one else's. That agenda is about the ascendancy of Sinn Féin in both jurisdictions, and the selling of that ascendancy as the first tangible mark of a united Ireland.

pete baker @ 12:33 PM | Comments (57)

not too little.. but much too late
The Irish Times carries Ed Moloney's view of the final act of decommissioning by the Provisional Movement[subs req], as announced yesterday by John de Chastelain, the retired Canadian general, who, when first appointed, "had so many strikes against him from an Irish nationalist viewpoint that Dublin and the Provos recruited Bill Clinton's assistance in trying to get him replaced."

As Ed Moloney reminds us, all has changed -

Ten years on the Provos and the Irish Government have nothing but praise for de Chastelain and those early doubts about his impartiality, when recalled nowadays, are met with uncomprehending glares. Instead it is the unionists who rage on about the former Canadian soldier.

He argues that de Chastelain's acceptance of the Provisional Movement's demand for secrecy is, partly, behind the change in approval -

The conventional explanation for this is that the way IRA decommissioning was conceived, the fact that it would be voluntary, carried out by the IRA itself, although verified independently and covered in a blanket of silence, was done specifically to avoid any impression that the IRA had been defeated and humiliated.

but that this is only part of the story -

The rest of the explanation lies in the fact that the secrecy allowed the IRA leadership to claim to its rank-and-file that decommissioning either hadn't happened or was of less significance than was being claimed.

It was the perfect example of constructive ambiguity in practice, of the grease being applied to the wheels of the peace process.

This application of constructive ambiguity benefited some, but not others -

And in the process the IRA leadership slowly got its membership used to the idea that weapons could be decommissioned without the sky falling in.

In fact they were able to demonstrate that disarming actually brought gains and for that they were indebted to the unionist community whose already ingrained scepticism about the IRA's bona fides was enhanced and inflated by the secrecy surrounding the process.

All this took its toll on David Trimble's ability to captain the unionist ship through the choppy peace process waters.

His response - the only possible response his friends say - was to place obstacles in the way of Sinn Féin joining the power-sharing government until the IRA delivered and so the Belfast Agreement lurched from one crisis or suspension to another.

Eventually Trimble's ship was scuppered; Ian Paisley is the new skipper and the prospects that the Belfast Agreement will ever be revived must be dimmer.

But the decommissioning itself is devalued as a result -

The secrecy surrounding decommissioning which Gen de Chastelain sanctioned may have been meant to make the ordeal of disarming easier for Sinn Féin and the IRA to bear but it had consequences which one doubts the general could ever have foreseen or intended.

No-one can seriously doubt that massive IRA decommissioning has taken place and that Gen de Chastelain and his witnesses were telling the truth yesterday, albeit a sadly incomplete truth, about what they saw.

Where the doubt exists now is over the worth of the exercise. The IRA's weapons proved to be immensely valuable chips in Sinn Féin's hands throughout the vexed years of negotiations and if they have now been finally surrendered it can only be because they have outlived their worth in the eyes of the Provo leadership and been replaced by other, more potent tokens such as the IRA itself, the persistent curse of criminality and the prospect of the Provos in the police force.

What Gen de Chastelain delivered yesterday was definitely not too little but it was almost certainly too late.

pete baker @ 11:36 AM | Comments (23)

Paisley to meet with General
Ian Paisley is to meet with General de Chastelain today. The process of consideration begins for Unionists. And a potentially open-ended period of tight control for the IRA.

Mick Fealty @ 09:21 AM | Comments (125)

Is there (political) life beyond the siege?
As we said in A Long Peace (chapter 3 - facing the dilemma), in a settled conflict situation, people should judge their opponents by their actions, not their words. It was true of the Northern Bank robbery and the ruthless killing of Robert McCartney. But the same is also true of the decommissioning of the IRA yesterday.

It's a big move and bold one. It represents a profound (even sublime) challenge to Unionists to make a positive response. Something many will not feel inclined to provide (subs needed), given the history of bad faith (to put it mildly) shown by Sinn Fein and the IRA over the last few months. It won't come quickly.

A period of time will be required in order that the wider Unionist community can absorb the full import of this move, for them and their communities. It won't simply be for the DUP to make its calculations about when and if it can safely re-engage with the political process. It will be for all unionists to re-examine their own bottom lines in the face of this peaceful challenge, and begin to imagine a future beyond the long war.

And, more importantly perhaps, to contemplate life beyond a centuries old siege.

Mick Fealty @ 08:48 AM | Comments (30)

Shots that shook the world...
IF certain news stories weren't recorded on camera, would they be seen to be as important? I doubt it, but anyway, ITN is asking the public to vote for its 'Shot that Shook the World'. A fair selection? Locally, the Omagh bomb figures in the 'Global Conflict' category.

Belfast Gonzo @ 02:22 AM | Comments (12)

The funniest joke..?
You may want to look away from the screen now. The Guardian's funniest [religious] joke follows. Thanks for the heads up Dom!

Mick Fealty @ 12:27 AM | Comments (1)

September 26, 2005

No Direction Home
If you're not watching the Martin Scorsese directed documentary on Bob Dylan on BBC2 right now.. why the hell not? Tommy Makem and the Clancy Brothers have already been name-checked, as well as more obvious influences like Woody Guthrie, Robert Johnson, Pete Seeger, et al.. and it's only part 1.. Wonderful stuff. Watch it if you can.. or you could buy the DVD.. as well, that is.

pete baker @ 10:13 PM | Comments (7)

The Long War has failed*
The Guardian (Unlimited) continue to expand their on-line repertoire, with Angelique Chrisafis, in effect, audio-blogging on today's developments[3min 18sec mp3 file]. At the press conference The Observer's Henry McDonald interrupted the Decommissioning Body's studied delivery by asking whether any weapons from after 1996 had been decommissioned. In his report he also notes a comment by The Blanket's Anthony McIntyre that "the disposal of weapons smuggled into Ireland to fight the Long War had 'made republicanism history', rather than partition." [*thread title stolen shamelessly from Henry McDonald's report]

pete baker @ 09:08 PM | Comments (30)

Maze Prison photos
When I think about the Maze, it astonishes me to think that I grew up in a street of just 18 homes, where three of the residents worked as prison guards, as witnesses to history. And yet I really cannot comprehend what went on in the place, or what it would have looked like inside. Sasha of Nothing Less has provided an incredible free insight into the place - more than 200 pictures taken on a private tour. (Via Boing Boing).

Aaron Scullion @ 07:37 PM | Comments (2)

Seen in Croke Park, yesterday...
It may be hard to believe, but a Tyrone fan was clearly putting county allegiance ahead of any dispute with the old enemy. His red and white flag was also the cross of St George. A first for Croke Park? To be filed with tales of a bespoke green Union flag at Northern Ireland's 1 0 defeat of England in Windsor Park.

Mick Fealty @ 06:28 PM | Comments (62)

Overheard in Dublin, tonight...
RTE reporter to passing politician, "this story is live until Wednesday". That would bring us up to Peter Hain's announcement of 'confidence building measures' for Unionists. Then Northern Ireland presumably returns to the status of 'big sleep' in Dublin and the Republic.

Mick Fealty @ 06:24 PM | Comments (9)

IRA leaving Catholics undefended
Damien Kiberd welcomes the IRA's move, but he argues that they may have left Catholic populations in Northern Ireland. It's probably true that that is a thought in many peoples' mind in the light of their historical experience. Although as Father Brian D'arcy pointed out on RTE this afternoon, the 'Pogroms' of 1969 were actively backed by individual B Specials - a situation that no longer applies.

Mick Fealty @ 03:16 PM | Comments (58)

IRA states it is now an unarmed organisation
P O'Neill makes a return...

Mick Fealty @ 03:11 PM | Comments (79)

Empey: a welcome development...
A lot of callers into RTE in Dublin are cock a hoop at the General's verdict and have expressed the opinion that Unionists must now take the initiative. "It represents progress and it also represents a massive U Turn on the part of the Republican movement". He also believes that Loyalist paramilitaries must now decommission, not least because the General has committed to keeping the IRA inventory secret until they reciprocate. He reserves his opinion on the outcome of the next IMC reports. But he called it a welcome development.

Mick Fealty @ 03:03 PM | Comments (37)

A good start is half the job?
Well it's the move that was required. Not quite the best terms for the DUP. But for most independent observers. Richard Delevan is cautiously optimistic. But he correctly notes that this is just the first line on the last page of the last chapter of the book. We're not quite at the end of history.

Mick Fealty @ 02:35 PM | Comments (15)

Estimates matched matériel
The head of the decommissioning body, John de Chastelain, was severely grilled by the assorted media at the press conference.. and, although he emphasised that the Decommissioning Body itself is satisfied that the PIRA arsenal has been fully decommissioned - based on security forces' estimates, and on the matériel they witnessed - when asked if there could be other weapons still being held by PIRA, he acknowledged that, in a phrase that is likely to resurface in the weeks and months ahead, "We can never be completely certain".

pete baker @ 02:30 PM | Comments (10)

Thinking on the street..
Too early for reaction. The General is still talking. But Mary Fitzgerald has been out in East Belfast talking to ordinary people on recent security and political moves.

Mick Fealty @ 02:24 PM | Comments (15)

A long time watcher...
Harold Good has just spoken. "Father Reid and I have spent days, many days watching [the decomm team] decommissioning a vast amount of arms on a minute by minute basis". De Chastelain has note how much of it there was. There may be missing - but infinately small amounts. Most of it was the manufacturers packaging. It was also clear he said that there was also a lot of material in belts and small bits and pieces, clearly brought in in small quantities from a wide number of people. He thinks they have all the arms that were in the knowing possession of the IRA.

Mick Fealty @ 02:16 PM | Comments (13)

It's ALL gone...
They have made an inventory which accords to a joint governments inventory that was compiled when the commission was established. "An important milestone has been reached. We believe that all the arms held by the IRA have been decommissioned". It leaves the Loyalist paramilitaries out in the cold.

Mick Fealty @ 02:09 PM | Comments (8)

Importance of confidentiality...
De Chastelain has just apologised for the lack of clarity of previous acts of decommissioning. He says it was important for him to use the independent status of the commission to establish the methodology. "It was not for us to editorialise. Getting armed groups to put aside their arms voluntarily is not easy". Confidentiality was crucial.

Mick Fealty @ 02:05 PM | Comments (2)

The decommissioning is an accomplished fact
Joint statement from Harold Good and Alex Reid. "The arms of the IRA have been decommissioned beyond any shadow of a doubt".

Mick Fealty @ 01:56 PM | Comments (10)

Last move the of the endgame expected?
With great finesse, I have managed to re-locate myself to Dublin for the day, having spent the last three days within a mile and half walk from where John De Chastelain is expected to announce (according to Dublin sources) that his work with IRA is done. The choice of Harold Good is not a bad one. It hasn't gone down well with DUP, but if his account is sufficiently graphic, he may just get this process off to a plausible start. Handing in the lot effectively makes the IRA history. Along with a standing down of vigilante and criminal activities, that should just about get us of (What Mitchell McLaughlin has termed) the last page of the l;ast chapter.

Mick Fealty @ 01:42 PM | Comments (0)

No Hallelujah Chorus
In the Belfast Telegraph, Sam Smyth raises just two cheers in response to the unfolding choreography -

The Provisionals expect a grateful public to raise a Hallelujah Chorus in praise for the dumping of their weapons. But a sigh of relief is more appropriate for their decommissioning of an enormous arsenal of sophisticated weapons and explosives.

pete baker @ 11:43 AM | Comments (11)

Republicans need re-own the 'Orange tradition'
Michael McDowell on his brand of Republicanism. He argues that for unification to happen at all, Republicans need to work on re-integrating the Orange tradition back into their own concept of an all Ireland Republic before it can stand a chance of fulfilling its long term aim of re-uniting the island.

Mick Fealty @ 06:37 AM | Comments (65)

IRA move key to SF's future success
Brian Feeney see little practical worth in the decommissioning of IRA weapons, but a symbolic significance the power of which will only become obvious in Sinn Fein's next electoral performance.

Mick Fealty @ 06:25 AM | Comments (3)

Fitt: the political cameleon
Here's one we missed earlier. Ryle Dwyer recalls Gerry Fitt's street career as an MP, when he begged the Republic's government to send weapons to Catholic areas of Belfast to defend themselves with.

Mick Fealty @ 06:16 AM | Comments (0)

Nationalists 'must lift the seige'
Interesting letter which appeared in several papers. It argues that the most effective way of uniting the people of Ireland is for nationalists to lift the siege on unionists - by ceasing to be nationalists.

Mick Fealty @ 06:06 AM | Comments (42)

September 25, 2005

50% of IRA weapons are gone...
The word seems to be that the decommissioning act is now complete. But it may not be all of the IRA's arsenal. The Sunday World today reported that up to 50% of it's remaining weapons have been disposed of - for instance it believes none of the South Armagh weapons have been scrapped. We'll have to wait for John De Chastelain, who has a full inventory of what's in the arsenal, to confirm or deny. He's the only one with that quality of information. And, last time out, he refused to share it in public. As the PA noted at the time of the IRA order: "...it doesn't mean the IRA has committed itself to its total disarmament; units may been instructed to dump some of its weapons but retain others".

Adams yesterday:

"I don't think republicans have absorbed what it is about. I don`t think the media have absorbed what it is about. I don`t think our opponents have absorbed what it is about," he said. "But when the IRA delivers, when our opponents and our enemies no longer have the IRA to use as an excuse, what are they going to do? Harking back to the old days is clearly not an option and I suspect that in their heart of hearts they know that."

For the DUP's part, they have refused to get involved with Sinn Fein until a lengthy period has passed without organised IRA activity on the ground. They have never looked upon a decommissioning process as important in itself, so much as a confidence building measure for the