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Bertie: "will there be a united Ireland?"
The Today programme asked Mr Ahern [mp3] the big one this morning: "Prime Minister, do you think there will be a united Ireland in your lifetime?". Leaving aside the fact that they failed to address him as Taoiseach, here is his unedited answer...
I, I hope we, we can move to a situation where the co-operation, ahh, on this island, on things that make sense to co-operate on, like we're doing at the moment on tourism, on matters of trade, on things like electricity, and, on health issues, we should continue to try to build up our confidence over that period of time. And then, ahh, in another time, people might, on the basis of consent, see that a united Ireland is the right thing to do. It's not going to happen in the short term and I don't think it'll happen in my political lifetime.

The interview is available as part of the BBC's podcasting trials.


Comments (202)

I think it is only fair to point out that Bertie was talking about the football team

Posted by: The Devil at July 29, 2005 03:06 PM


Amidst the hum's and ha's, his answer isn't probably too far wrong.

Posted by: Blackadder at July 29, 2005 03:25 PM


So is that a yes or a no Bertie?

Posted by: circles at July 29, 2005 03:27 PM


Circles,
not in his political lifetime and after that he can't influence the matter in any substantial way.
Asking him will there be a united Ireland is like asking him if he'll live to 80. Ask him when he's 79 and 364 days.

Bertie said he'll retire at 60, which is 2011, so he doesn't see it happening in his next term.

I think his comment is about right in where the majority of Irish people want this all to go in the medium term. Work together for the benefit of all in any way we can and see how we feel about each other then.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 03:35 PM


And let's not forget one of the big precursors to a united ireland, which is hoping that a few hundred thousand unionists have a presto-changeo miraculous revelation, where they all decide that they were only letting on about feeling british, really they're as irish as shane magowan, or failing that, they are all abducted by aliens.

Posted by: Ricardo at July 29, 2005 03:39 PM


Yes well - the question was of course not political lifetime, just simply lifetime - and even Bertie can't be sure how long his political lifetime will be (whether he'll reach the 60 or not).
I agree though that it was a good polticians answer, by answering he's own question that was only similar to the one he was asked.
I also agree with the sentiments he expressed.

still an answer would have been nice.

Posted by: circles at July 29, 2005 03:41 PM


How long is Bertie's political lifetime likely to be? How old's Bertie?

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 03:44 PM


this moves fast - question was answered three posts ago. Mitchel thinks it'll happen by 2016

Posted by: chris at July 29, 2005 03:47 PM


If/when the people of NI vote to join a united Ireland, would the Agreement still be in effect? i.e. does the Agreement wind itself up in a united Ireland?

Posted by: Occasional Commentator at July 29, 2005 03:48 PM


OC,

My answer to your question is, Yes, the Agreement ends with the Yes vote on unification by the citizens of NI.

Posted by: Alan McDonald at July 29, 2005 03:56 PM


where'e bertie on the commonwealth question? will ireland come a little way towards accomodating ricardo's sense of britishness? in these post-religious, celtic tiger times, those few hundred thousand unionists might be easier persuaded that they're part of a grand Scots / Irish, Gallic / Gaelic tradition (rather than just boring old "British") than he thinks.

Posted by: chris at July 29, 2005 04:01 PM


Thank you Chris for not leaping down my throat as I had expected from most on here. How do people think unionists will be persuaded? I get the feeling that most think 'well soon they'll be in a minority so feck them'. This is no way to go about any process of reunification, because, if the IRA have taught us anything, it is even if you're in a minority, cause enough mayhem and eventually you'll get what you want. People will have to be shown the benefits. Unfortunately, most people on this site seem to want to portray a united ireland as a victory for republicans, and destruction of unionists. going down this path will not be successful. Republicans need to start thinking of how they can portray a united ireland as a victory for everyone, not just the majority, but EVERYONE. And given that there are a lot of people here whose raison d'etre is being British, and not Irish, I am not clear how that hurdle can be overcome.

Posted by: Ricardo at July 29, 2005 04:12 PM


Alan/OC

My answer to your question is, Yes, the Agreement ends with the Yes vote on unification by the citizens of NI.

The second part of this is wrong. The Agreement requires two referendums, in NI and RoI, for unification.

Posted by: fair_deal at July 29, 2005 04:34 PM


Ricardo,

100%. The debate about Irish unity should not be about lording it over a defeated enemy.

If there is any sense of forcing unionists into the space they once force catholics to occupy - into second class citizenship, then it would be a hollow 'victory' indeed.

The emphasis must be on mutual benefits.

Certainly if the agricultural industry being tied into the Britsih approach, particularly in terms of EU negotiations, the beef ban etc have been very detrimental to all farmers regardless of political opinion. BUt the onus is on republicans to demonstrate that there would be greater benefits acrued for an all-Ireland framework.

Similarly in the provision of health services - and the recent stuff from HArney on regional cancer services is a case in point - there are very good arguments to be made for greater all-Ireland thinking.

Recent figures - reported in the Irish News I think - pointed to a increase of 4% in all-Ireland trade built mainly on northern businese waking up to the potential of trading with other companies on the island.

TRansport is another area. THe lack of a comprehensive rail netweork, especially covering the North West is a disgrace. Especially the lack of freight provision.

The list could go on and on - dealing with waste and illegal dumping clearly demands a single Irish body such as an all-Ireland Environmental Protection Agency - thatr would also deal with taking powers away fropm the DoE that report after report tells us has abjectly failed to take enforcement seriously.

Posted by: The Dog at July 29, 2005 04:34 PM


And given that there are a lot of people here whose raison d'etre is being British, and not Irish, I am not clear how that hurdle can be overcome.

Ricardo is absolutely right. I think trying to persuade unionism of anything is a complete waste of time. I think a UI will come about much like the Republic did, gradually, and by the time it's here all that will be required is to change the name.

I almost never saw northern reg plates in the south growing up but now the dual carriageways are black with 'em. Unionists are learning that the south is no longer the priest-ridden, rome-ruled agrarian caricature that trimble et al paint.

There is already creeping unification in professional and infrastructural bodies. If unionism wants to retain the union they need to start working hard on eliminating the problems causedd by the border because they will be the fuel for unification. In my opinion unionism is going to fail because they view NI as a zero sum game and are incapable of doing something that benefits the other community.

On the commonwealth question - so long as britain is a monarchy AND the queen/king is in any way the formal/titular/actual head then absolutely no way in hell can the Irish Republic be associated with it.. When britain is ready to join the 19th century then get back to us.

Posted by: Robert Keogh at July 29, 2005 04:42 PM


Ricardo,
it would be a defeat for unionism as it is currently constructed just like it would be for militant Irish republicans as they are currently constructed.

A unified Irish Republic, at peace with itself, would be neither's tastes, in my view. McDowell as Justice Minister, Robinson in Finance.

It will be a victory the people of this island though if the majority of all traditions want it and this will only happen if it is clear as the noses on all our faces that our interests, and the interests of the island as a whole, are best served by a unitary state.

Step 1: stop killing and attacking each other
Step 2: work hard in areas that will be mutually beneficial

Considering how long it is taking us to get past step 1, and I include all traditions in that, I just hope step 2 goes a little quicker.

P.S. These steps might not lead to a unified state but they will lead to an island at peace.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 04:46 PM


Fair Deal,

I've heard this comment about two polls, but I can't find it in the Agreement. The only information I see is in:

DRAFT CLAUSES/SCHEDULES FOR INCORPORATION IN
BRITISH LEGISLATION
1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1.
(2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.

...

SCHEDULE 1
POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1
1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.
2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.
3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.

Posted by: Alan McDonald at July 29, 2005 04:50 PM


Robert Keogh:

The idea of rejoining the commonwealth may seem unpalatable, but what harm would it do? It would reassure those of the British persuasion that a united Ireland wouldn't entail cutting them entirely adrift from all things British without involving any sacrifice of political sovereignty.

Didn't South Africa rejoin after becoming a democratic republic after all?

Posted by: Hmm... at July 29, 2005 04:53 PM


It amuses me to watch the development of the this goal-post-moving business of "oh, well you can't have a united ireland without unionist consent".

Eh, you can actually - as soon as a majority in the North vote for a United Ireland then that's it - done.

As for suggestions that the disenchanted unionist slow-learner brigade would then embark upon a successful campaign of guerilla resistance a la the provos - you must be joking. These untermenschen can barely organise a bonfire without injuring themselves/killing themselves/getting themselves arrested/dying in a blizzard of cocaine.

The only reason that the Provos were able to wage any sort of successful campaign in the seventies, eighties and early nineties was because they enjoyed a modest but significant level of suport both in Ireland and abroad. Who in their right mind (apart from the unionist rump themselves) will sympathise with Unionist resistance to a united Ireland ? Nobody.

Posted by: Bored at July 29, 2005 04:57 PM


Alan,
there would have to be a poll in the Irish Republic too to alter the State's constitution accordingly, which requires a referendum.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 05:01 PM


"As for suggestions that the disenchanted unionist slow-learner brigade would then embark upon a successful campaign of guerilla resistance a la the provos - you must be joking. These untermenschen can barely organise a bonfire without injuring themselves/killing themselves/getting themselves arrested/dying in a blizzard of cocaine.

The only reason that the Provos were able to wage any sort of successful campaign in the seventies, eighties and early nineties was because they enjoyed a modest but significant level of suport both in Ireland and abroad. Who in their right mind (apart from the unionist rump themselves) will sympathise with Unionist resistance to a united Ireland ? Nobody."

Quite correct.

Posted by: Blackadder at July 29, 2005 05:02 PM


"These untermenschen can barely organise a bonfire without injuring themselves/killing themselves/getting themselves arrested/dying in a blizzard of cocaine"

Un-PC, inflammatory comment. But it didn't half make me laugh..

Posted by: Aaron at July 29, 2005 05:02 PM


George,

I understand that the Republic of Ireland would have to do something after the unification poll was taken in Northern Ireland, but i don't see anything about that in the Agreement. Not arguing the logic, just the contents of the GFA.

Posted by: Alan McDonald at July 29, 2005 05:08 PM


Could somebody please outline the benefits of the Commonwealth to Ireland, apart from the fact that we might have a chance of winning some medals at an international sporting event?

What has it done for Northern Ireland for example? How many Commonwealth-inspired economic delegations have been there looking to invest?

Anyway, we have our own Commonwealth, it's called the Irish Diaspora and if the Ulster Scots and the rest of Ulster British/Irish, who apparently have 20 former US Presidents in their ranks, come on board who needs it?

It just seems to me like a post-colonial rehab club.

Hi, my name is India and I'm a recovering colony.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 05:14 PM


Robert

I'm new to this site so apologies if I go over old ground but as far as I know there's 53 nations in the Commonwealth, 32 are republics. Its members are home to 30% of the world's people - Britain's just 1% or so. The Chair's Nigerian and the Chief Exec (Gerneral-Secretary I think)is a Kiwi. The Queen's got a wee job 'til she dies but it's no more that the Brtish Commonwealth than the Indian, Irish or Scottish Commonwealth. Who sent most people to the other members states? Not joining looks a bit like not wanting to be in any club with the Brits and Ireland's already in at least three (UN, EU, British-Irish council).

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 05:17 PM


Alan,
I would agree with you, actually, now I read the GFA text. I suppose they take unification as a given considering the Irish constitution does state a "firm will" for it if consent is there in both jurisdictions and this was voted on in 1998 and passed with a 95% vote.

In other words, theoretically, NI could have one and then it would be up to us. Actually I'd prefer that as one wouldn't want to be stood up on the altar.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 05:23 PM


Bored.

You're wrong.

Posted by: Ricardo at July 29, 2005 05:23 PM


Of course Ricardo - I do apologise.

Posted by: Bored at July 29, 2005 05:27 PM


Alan
"I understand that the Republic of Ireland would have to do something after the unification poll was taken in Northern Ireland, but i don't see anything about that in the Agreement."

They might vote and say 'yes, we want in'. Doesn't mean we'd let them in :) We'd definitly have our say too, nothing would happen without a yes vote south of the border. Doesn't matter if it's in the GFA or not, IMHO.

Posted by: maca at July 29, 2005 05:32 PM


I was hoping for a more vitriolic response!

What I was getting at was: When the 'troubles' were in full swing, the IRA enjoyed a lot of support from working class catholics and middle class catholics. The reaction of middle class prods to loyalist paramilitaries was to turn away from them, possibly leading to the creation of this 'untermenschen' as you have less than graciously termed them. Were a united ireland declared tomorrow, majority or not, I believe that loyalist paramilitaries would get more widespread support from working and middle class prods, in the same way the IRA did. That in itself would be 'a modest but significant level of suport'. How would republicans react to this? How could they condemn it, given that it would be the exact course of action that they chose when they had a political settlement imposed on them, even when that was the wish of the majority? The IRA have set a precedent for slaughter on this island, and I fear that others will follow their example in future.

Posted by: Ricardo at July 29, 2005 05:36 PM


Maca,

I agree that the RoI would have to take some kind of action, and the UK would have to wrap up its move out. This discussion actually goes back to:

If/when the people of NI vote to join a united Ireland, would the Agreement still be in effect? i.e. does the Agreement wind itself up in a united Ireland? Posted by: Occasional Commentator at July 29, 2005 03:48 PM

My opinion is that the GFA ends with the NI poll, and its all RoI/UK mopping up after that.

Posted by: Alan McDonald at July 29, 2005 05:39 PM


George,

What do you mean "apart from the fact that we might have a chance of winning some medals at an international sporting event?"

Don't you think it's a pity that when sport is the one thing we have that on this island that does work cross border we aren't sending an all-ireland squad to the sevens in Melbourne next year. When the united Ireland does come do the 29% of Ireland's people who live up here not get to go to the games any more. Some engagement.

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 05:39 PM


Chris
"Don't you think it's a pity that ... we aren't sending an all-ireland squad to the sevens in Melbourne next year"

I doubt many people actually give a shit, to be honest.

"When the united Ireland does come do the 29% of Ireland's people who live up here not get to go to the games any more."

Why wouldn't they? The commonwealth won't end, Britain would still be in the CW, and the 29% would still be British citizens.

Posted by: maca at July 29, 2005 06:01 PM


Ricardo - firstly - I don't consider myself to be subject to any social, moral or intellectual imperative to act 'graciously' in my description of paramilitary groups.

Secondly, even allowing for a sudden (and in my view risibly unlikely) conversion in taste of the Northern unionist middle classes - where would any 'modest but significant' suport come from outside of the North? Absolutely nowhere. The rest of the world would see these clowns for the obstructive, sectarian scum that they are and always have been.

Thirdly, Northern unionism has shown again and again that it doesn't have the stomach for resistance in the modern age. Drumcree? Dead on it's feet. Anglo-Irish Agreement ? After a few years farcical 'protest' it all died off. Personal protest and sacrifice ? HHHmmmm - just one of many examples - think of the large numbers of 'loyalist' hunger strikers over the years (that's right, most of them actually gained weight during their 'protests' and many (stand up Clifford Peebles among others) were discovered to have been stuffing their faces with Mars Bars and curry chips on the sly).

Fourthly, there is a large section of the Northern Protestant population who don't dread a United Ireland and don't associate it with the sky falling down on their heads (many of my close Protestant friends fall into this category).

Finally, with only limited local support and no British or other foreign support, any twats deciding to start their tiresome sectarian twaddle would be crushed in no time.

Posted by: Bored at July 29, 2005 06:02 PM


Ricardo,
You should know by now that according to the likes of "Bored", we Unionists are a completely
different sort of human to those "historically magnificent, pure-blooded Gaelic beacons of light"(not quite sure where I first saw that quote) who sit in judgement of others across this island, so don't worry too much about the little outbursts of sarcasm, especially on a Friday night;)

Having said that, I've got to agree with him/her that if anyone is relying on the tactical and planning skills of the loyalist headhonchos to save us from the United Ireland, they're going to be sadly disappointed.

I also disagree with you on you belief that a substantial number of Unionists would support a similar campaign to that which the Provos waged. I really don't think there would be the stomach within the Unionist community at large for it. My suspicion is that there would a low-grade campaign which would soon fizzle out, waged by the kind of low-life who invaded Garnersville this week. I'm sure there would also be emigration of some, but I also think that other than complaining about the hassle of having to change their bank accounts and investment plans,the vast majority of the garden centre,golf club middle-class Unionists won't put up much of a fight.

Posted by: Paul at July 29, 2005 06:17 PM


Imagine this situation. It is May 1945 and the German Field Marshal has just signed the documents for surrender. He turns to the Allied commanders and says ‘Right; now that’s over let’s talk about how extensive the new German borders will be. Do we get the whole of Poland and only part of the Ukraine or the whole of the Ukraine?’ The ludicrous triumphalism of some of the posts from Republicans is exactly equivalent.
The pro-union people of Northern Ireland (Catholic and Protestant) have not been bombed into a united Ireland, nor are they about to be ‘persuaded’ into such an arrangement. A border poll now would give about 38% in favour of a UI and even when the demographics are most favourable, in about the year 2050, it will still be less than 45%. Instead of dreaming the impossible dream why not concentrate on making NI a better place for all.

Posted by: DavidD at July 29, 2005 06:21 PM


Paul - I'm English you twat.

Posted by: Bored at July 29, 2005 06:24 PM


Paul,

100% correct, especially if we get an all-Ireland team for the sevens.

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 06:28 PM


Bored,
Calm down!

"I'm English you twat".

Check my first paragraph again .

Whatever your nationality, it still makes sense.

Posted by: Paul at July 29, 2005 06:32 PM


Not in my political lifetime

Translated means - Not a hope I'm getting involved in that.

Brilliant answer all the same - completely meaningless and inoffensive. And just a few more splinters in his ass from sitting on the fence.

Posted by: Ringo at July 29, 2005 06:37 PM


A classic bit or question dodging by the bold Bertie. He knows he's not going to see a "united Ireland", but by saying so, he would have advanced too far from previous FF leaders and allowed SF/IRA to claim to be the "Republican Party".

Three generations of FF politicans have gone on record as saying that they expected to see to see a "united Ireland" in their lifetimes. Two of those generations are now pushing up daisies and I wouldn't bet much of David Andrews being any different.

Much more significant was Ahern's answer to the question posed by John Bowman on RTE last night as to whether he saw a FF/SF coalition government as a possibility. His answer "impossible" (repeated for emphasis).

Posted by: Keith M at July 29, 2005 06:52 PM


"Mitchel thinks it'll happen by 2016". I assume this is the infamous SF chairman, who according to his last prediction is now the MP for Foyle.

Mitchel really is a huge loss to the world of literature, I'm sure his "Little Book of Faux Pas" could be a best seller.

Posted by: Keith M at July 29, 2005 06:57 PM


Paul,
how do you know what the people of NI will vote for in the next 30 years? Where's the crystal ball or are you going on the sectarian headcount, that it's all down to demographics?

The number of unionist votes has dropped by a whopping 100,000 in the last 20 years in Westminster elections and I put a lot of that down to what they have to endorse, Paisley for example.

Unionism isn't a monolith and not all Protestants living in Ireland are genetic unionists. I think a lot of Protestants in NI have already decided to remain stumm rather than encourage the leaders of the unionist community,whose world view is different to theirs, by giving them their vote.

Yes, there are lots and lots of people in NI who see the bigger picture but at the moment they just can't say it openly because the situation is too raw.

Times change, people's views change. They may not, but they may. Only time will tell.

Chris,
so all the Commonwealth has to offer is entry to a Sevens (I assume Rugby) tournament in Melbourne.

Pretty inclusive alright. Why don't they just organise a fee-paying school jamboree?

Sorry but how much does this Commonwealth membership cost and couldn't we spend it on something more constructive, like a decent stadium.

How many blazers get free trips out of the Commonwealth and how many public servants suckle from its teat?

Can anyone let me know what it has done for Northern Ireland or what it would give to Ireland?

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 07:02 PM


George,

you're leading me on to thin ice here old man but wouldn't Irish membership give the Australians some-one to play the old footie with on an international stage.

why do you keep talking about what it would do for you anyway greedy guts. It's about building a common sense of Irishness on something more than Brit hating. You say it's a good thing prods are coming over and as soon as I make a litle suggestion about joining a sports club with some old chums you want to put me back in my box.

I'm not sure what it costs by the way. I'll ring the membership secretary and get back to you.

and wtf is a genetic unionist?

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 07:12 PM


George,

you're leading me on to thin ice here old man but wouldn't Irish membership give the Australians some-one to play the old footie with on an international stage.

why do you keep talking about what it would do for you anyway greedy guts. It's about building a common sense of Irishness on something more than Brit hating. You say it's a good thing prods are coming over and as soon as I make a litle suggestion about joining a sports club with some old chums you want to put me back in my box.

I'm not sure what it costs by the way. I'll ring the membership secretary and get back to you.

and wtf is a genetic unionist?

Posted by: Chris at July 29, 2005 07:15 PM


oops

Posted by: chris at July 29, 2005 07:16 PM


Chris,
I just don't see where a sense of commonality can be found in an organisation that means absolutely nothing to me or most of my compatriots.

Surely it would have to have a semblance of meaning to us too or do I have to simply sign up so my new-found northern compatriots would feel more at home?

You might as well ask the nation to take up boules or camel racing for the sake of a common Irishness. Why not but don't be surprised if it doesn't take off.

Mavbe you can tell me where this great attachment to the Commonwealth comes from for people in NI because I was born 100 kilometres down the road and it never meant diddly squat to me?

It seems like to be British is to be in the Commonwealth. Fine but I'm not British so I'd like a little bit of an explanation as to why.

At the moment, I don't know what it does apart from giving its leaders the chance to meet up and chew the fat every once in a while and for its athletes to compete against each other.

I honestly don't know why Ireland should join. I'm not talking about being greedy, I just think we can use our energies more constructively to build bridges with other nations.

Eastern Europe, the United States, Russia, China and Asia in general is where we should be working on our ties, not wasting time playing lip service to something like the Commonwealth.

I also just think of Groucho Marx saying "I wouldn't be a member of a club that would have me as a member".

I used the term "genetic unionist" to point out to Paul that humans don't have a pre-determined political ideology, with them at birth which is passed on to their children.

My way of saying using demographics when it comes to determining the future strength of political ideologies such as unionism is crap.

Posted by: George at July 29, 2005 07:35 PM


Its a yes ya bastards.. there is no other ticket or show in town.. you just watch from now on.
How wonderful life is now you're in the world.

Posted by: spirit-level at July 29, 2005 07:54 PM


"Bertie: "will there be a united Ireland?"

No but thanks for asking

Posted by: bertie at July 29, 2005 07:56 PM


b George

I also just think of Groucho Marx saying "I wouldn't be a member of a club that would have me as a member".

What about one from which you were banned from leading because of your religion.


Commonwealth membership for Ireland and the removal of the ban on Catholics becomming British head of state would be nice gestures.

Posted by: Henry94 at July 29, 2005 08:35 PM


Henry94: What about [a club] from which you were banned from leading because of your religion.


The Commonwealth has no such restriction.


No-one was asking you to bring the Republic back into the UK - which does have that restriction.

We're saving that idea until after decommissioning :-)

Posted by: DavidH at July 29, 2005 10:10 PM


"used the term "genetic unionist" to point out to Paul that humans don't have a pre-determined political ideology, with them at birth which is passed on to their children.

My way of saying using demographics when it comes to determining the future strength of political ideologies such as unionism is crap"

George,
Sorry for the late comeback, either I've been lazy in the terminology I used, or you've misunderstood me.

If the present situation continues within NI,then demographics( by this I presume you mean the religous breakdown) wil play less and less a part in deciding our future constitutional status, there'll be more and more Catholic Unionists and Protestant nationalists/Republicans. I fear the Unionist parties will have more difficulty adjusting to this, but it's about time they started making the case for the Union on grounds other than religion.

Posted by: Paul at July 29, 2005 10:23 PM


Way back before the troubles got going I think the kids in methody voted for a united ireland at some debate or other.

Who knows what might have developed over thirty years without Paisley and co stopping the civil rights marches and Irish cabinet ministers shipping guns to the right wing side of the IRA split.

Co-operation can be contagious. Mozambique joined the Commonwealth despite not having been a British colony.

Maybe Irish companies do not need those huge populations of english speaking customers in fast developing markets.

Posted by: aquifer at July 29, 2005 10:36 PM


Much of the comments about future situations seems to ignore the fact that although the percentage difference in Roman Catholic/Protestant population is constant about 46/54 the numerical difference is gradually increasing and even assuming all Roman Catholics vote for non Unionist parties there is little likelihood of a Nationalist/Republican voting majority in the forseeable future.
It would be preferable if we used our time now determining what needs be done to bring about a new Northern Ireland that forges ahead and puts the past behind us quickly. It is time people faced the demographic and post 9-11 political realities and and focused on the need to live toghether and respect the rights of our fellow citizens to enjoy civil and religious liberty and equality.
There are many people who should have the decency to admit the part they played in this last sad chapter in our history and take immediate steps to alleviate the pain and suffering of victims' families for a start.
An expression of remorse and regret would go a long way to facilitating closure in many cases.
A genuine change of direction by Sinn Fein/IRA would create a climate that could quickly facilitate political change, especially if their expressed statements were immediately backed up by action
T.Ruth

Posted by: T.Ruth at July 29, 2005 11:08 PM


Didn't make the 12th parades as I had planned, but there's never enough time to do everything, perhaps next summer. Freaking sun-tanned from being in Cork city? I'm starting to think there's some Irish government office paying off you guys to tell foreigners about the "awful" weather on the island. Sunny, bright weather everytime I come. What's up with that? I might as well stay home. Anyway,other than being delighted at the recent news, it reminded me of years ago when the West Germans I once worked with used to laugh at me when I suggested that someday Germany would be united. I'm getting that same feeling about the IRL.

Posted by: Thomas from Texas at July 30, 2005 12:01 AM


Paul,
I did misunderstand you (not a first for me) and agree fully on unionism needing to better plead its case .

I've gone on (ad nauseum to many on this forum I'm sure) about how unionism is doomed to failure if it continues with this "simply British" ideology.

If there is no room for being Irish and proud in the union, remember it used to be the Irish Unionist Party, then it will die. It may take decades but in my opinion, it will be doomed.

The "problem" for unionism of course is that, a natural side-effect of promoting some sort of Irishness is that it encourages the call of Lundy and, even worse, some may "go native" and reduce the slim majority.

On the Irish side, it could be similar. To show their bona fides the Irish in NI start working the system as best they can and, who knows, enough of them might just like it and feel part of it to stabilise the union indefinitely.

It's like the great standoff one experiences when at the bar with a bunch of Cavanmen.

For us in the Republic, it's reasonably simple. We just try make this place such a good and open place to live that others travel here from all over the world to live and people in NI of all religions want to join.

If they decide they don't want to join, we still end up having a great place to live.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 12:22 AM


That some people are even prepared to think a United Ireland outside the Commonwealth even remotely feasible is one of many reasons it probably won't come about...

Posted by: IJP at July 30, 2005 01:02 AM


Maybe you could tell me what the Commonwealth does for you and your life IJP or anyone in NI for that matter rather than getting on your high horse.

I can understand the OO which has 75,000 members or a desire even to keep the Northern Ireland football team, which is important to a lot of people.

All I'm asking for is an explanation as to how the Commonwealth would benefit us all and why it has such a hold on people like you? Is that too much to ask?

By the way, Ireland's membership of the Commonwealth was terminated when it became a Republic, it didn't leave. The British weren't too bothered either but the rule changed for teacher's pet India though.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 01:09 AM


Look Ahern may or may not give a toss about Irish unity, who cares ? He knows, we know, that it won't happen in the next hundred years or more, he has to say that to keep SF's constructive ambiguity delusions on the rails. Are ordinary earth-dwelling unionists really that nuts that they believe any of this childish crap ? The reason Dublin is so pleased at how this is going is precisely BECAUSE it postpones into perpeteutiy the possibility that they'll have to assume direct responsibility for the north. West Brits ? Groupies I tells ya !

Posted by: Fishfiss at July 30, 2005 01:44 AM


I'm a protestant, i can be persuaded, so persuade me please, the previous posts don't.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 08:31 AM


I'm a protestant, i can be persuaded, so persuade me please, the previous posts don't.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 08:32 AM


Wheres Billy Pilgrim when you need him...

Posted by: Mr Fargus at July 30, 2005 11:57 AM


Wheres Billy Pilgrim when you need him...

Posted by: Mr Fargus at July 30, 2005 11:58 AM


Sounds to me like an awful lot of thinking will have to be done by the unionists now, you see the IRA move has played so well with the worlds media, do any of the unionists actually ever listen to the BBC world service and its round up of international coverage especially in the all important USA? Its doubles and back slaps all round for Gerry and Martin, and theres even a little gleam of post-IRA nostalgia growing in the US media "rebels who fought the one of the most formidable armies in the world " was a quote on a world service vox-pop from LA. If the unionists continue to throw their rattles from the pram they are shown up, or if they enter negotiations then its seen to be a loss of face from they're "NEVER NEVER" stance..Either way mark my words I have it on good authority,that theres now going to be a LOT of pressure applied to the DUP by the Brits and the Yanks...many of the senior civil servants are quite relishing putting the thumbscrews on them politically (since they are so personally obnoxious,one thing the provo's never lacked was a serious and consistent effort to be pally with the Brit civil servants, whereas the DUP were almost always noticeably rude-ask any of the Brit support team at Leeds Castle )...You see the USA and Britain WANT this sorted BIG TIME, and the egotists and bombasts of the DUP will soon melt when confronted by the sheer heat of the power of US/Brit "gloves off" tactics which will now ensue.
Now, the provies are the good boys in the class, and according to my sources theres the little matter of some quite smelly canards concerning leading DUP'ers and other Unionist obstructionists which may well be used to apply pressure....the Brits and most importantly the USA have all the cards. and a very full file on Paisley's confederates,at least two minor functionaries of the aforesaid are said to be in the pay of the Brits anyway.This dynamite, it is confidently expected is sufficient powerful to blow a whole in this apparent wall of resolute obduracy, it should take about 6 months for face saving purposes.

Posted by: Levitas at July 30, 2005 11:59 AM


George

"Work together for the benefit of all in any way we can and see how we feel about each other then"

Copyrightthis asap -its priceless,unanswerable logic, sense, commonsense --it should be a required "mission statement" for the politicans

Levitas
" LOT of pressure applied to the DUP by the Brits and the Yanks"

What pressure? What will they actually do? how many votes do the yanks and brits have? give us a few instances of the actions which will produce pressure.

The real pressure the DUPERS are under is from their voters- the one and only thing politicans want is to be re-elected. Any "pressure" on the DUPERS will simply allow them to make political capital from the pressure (this government wants us to share power with a murder gang and its representatives)-the last thing the DUPERS want is the protestant to swing back to the OUP..

Their are few nasty fiscal changes to be sorted out water charges,student fees to name two. All the local politicans prefer to have these imposed in their absence and can play the "not our fault card" later . Nobody is in any real hurry-for all the talk.
( incidentally if you want to embarass an MLA ask him/her how he/she would fund the services

Posted by: barnshee at July 30, 2005 01:08 PM


Levitas

"a very full file on Paisley's confederates,at least two minor functionaries of the aforesaid are said to be in the pay of the Brits anyway"

Tell us more, brother, tell us more. What you got for us ?

Posted by: Fishfiss at July 30, 2005 01:41 PM


Barnshee,
i agree with your post last post, i've been a long time reader and i never post but remembering back i think you said something along the lines of "the political class probably deserved what the got for the last 30 years, but the protestant working class certainly did not". correct me if i'm wrong! The statement from the IRA will no doubt please the politicians but what about the people that actually matter? be it protestant or catholic!

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 01:52 PM


Barnshee,
I'm sorry, i think it was aquifer that actually said that, but your post still makes sense,

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 02:07 PM


I can't speak for other Unionists, but my greatest personal objection to a United Ireland can be summed up in two words -- Sinn Fein.
The Republic has become increasingly prosperous, secular and outward-looking, all big pluses in my book.
SF on the other hand, represent the most narrow, backward-looking, intolerant strain of Republicanism, at times almost a mirror image of the Orange Order. Their policies are extreme Socialist/Marxist and appear to include EU withdrawal, wholesale destruction of capitalist principles and a general undoing of every benefit the Republic has managed in the last 50 years.
Their policies in the North and increasingly in the South are to foment tension and agitation at every turn, whilst proclaiming a laughable commitment to 'building unity.'
The fact that the electorate are actually voting in increasing numbers for these people is a complete mystery to myself and doubtless many other Unionists. One thing it certainly does not do is give us any incentive to even consider leaving the UK.

Posted by: Gerry Lvs Castro at July 30, 2005 02:18 PM


George

I guess the Commonwealth is to British people what the Irish language is to most Irish people - in practice it doesn't bring much, but symbolically it's extremely important.

My point is that, in the event of a single all-Ireland State, re-entry into the Commonwealth would be but one of many (often more significant) frankly pretty fundamental steps required to reflect the British identity on this island.

The fact that Nationalists would even consider quibbling over the Commonwealth (something which you admit is fairly irrelevant, so why not just go with it? in fact, since it's so meaningless, why not just re-enter now as a sign of good faith?) illustrates a complete lack of reality concerning what an all-Ireland State would really mean and really require.

It's always easy to demand 'compromise' so long as you're not the ones doing the compromising!

Posted by: IJP at July 30, 2005 02:31 PM


GLC,
I agree to a certain extent (althought i wouldn't say as strongly). My problem is not with republicans but the people who lead the republican movement, I mean most normal, sane people will admit that there have been lies told but what sort of peace process do we have if people that have been involved in murder and criminality cant even admit to it. I'm not trying to single one particular movement out I'm posing the question to both sides.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 02:39 PM


IJP,
sorry but that doesn't cut the mustard with me.

Hundreds of thousands of Irish people are actively involved in the Irish language just as tens of thousands of people are involved in the OO.

Their involvement in the language or the OO clearly brings things for them which is why they remain involved, year in year out, and have set up a whole infrastructure to continue their involvement.

How many people in NI are actively involved in the Commonwealth and what infrastructure has been set up?

What has the Commonwealth ever done for you or NI or what have you ever done for the Commonwealth? Give me something concrete. What has it given you? How does it impact on your life and sense of self?

Ask the same question about the OO, people will say their childhood memories of the 11th Night, marches, sense of belonging etc. Or about the NI football team, Spain 1982, that goal etc.

These I can understand but the Commonwealth?

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 03:05 PM


IJP,
just to make one thing clear, it doesn't bother me one iota if Ireland joins the Commonwealth (I also think this is the majority view) as I think it will have zero impact on my life or the life of my compatriots.

I just want to know why I would have indulge in this charade.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 03:10 PM


George,
I can be persuaded, persuade me into becomimg part of an Ireland of equals, I can understand why these things don't effect your life, but how can you expect people who see themselves as British to be led into a United Ireland without any issues they have being addressed, it just wont happen George, What do you suggest?

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 03:41 PM


Robbo,
what do I suggest? Off the top of my head.

The Orange Order gets full state funding, as much proportionately as the GAA, and can march anywhere it wants with full support of the Irish state in return for dropping its oath of allegiance to the head of a now foreign state and replacing it with an oath of allegiance to the new Irish state.

Any attacks on the organisation, its members or its property will be seen as acts of subversion and will be dealt with by hefty prison sentences.

An island-wide solidarity tax of 1% on the base income tax rate will be introduced with immediate effect to help fund a future comprehensive regeneration scheme in Northern Ireland.

The rights of the Ulster Protestant minority will be enshrined in the Irish constitution, thus making any attacks on their culture an attack on the state itself.

Ireland will rejoin the Commonwealth.

July 12th will become a national holiday on the whole island when everyone will be encouraged to be British for a day.

The Irish state will push the British government to ensure that they and their future generations can keep their British citizenship in perpetuity.

Compulsory Irish and any Irish language requirements will not apply to British passport holders living on the island of Ireland.

Flag and anthems to be agreed in dual plebiscites.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 04:05 PM


It appears to be the case that there are some people out there who feel that Commonwealth membership would make a united ireland more achievable. I believe they suffer from severe naiveity because the wider unionist community are not that stupid - no doubt they would expose this gesture for what it really is - a mere token and nothing more. Thus, Commonwealth membership, if taken up for this sort of reason, would be greeted with angry and justified accusations of duplicity.

Thats why we all need to do a George on this one, and ask amongst ourselves what benefits we would derive from this international organisation, apart from the few medals we may achieve at the Games. If the truth be known, there are feck all benefits because the Irish Republic, like many other former British colonies, doesn't need to be within the Commonwealth in order to nurture excellent relations with the UK. The United States provides a perfect example of this - a country which has a better relationship with Britain than some of these Commonwealth countries put together!

Most importantly of all - the Commonwealth question should be put before the Irish people in a consultative referendum, before there is to be any serious move to kick-start the application process for Commonwealth re-entry. If the Irish government cares one iota about democracy then it will follow this route. If a future Irish government trys to pull a fast one, and kick-starts this sort of illusory gesture of friendship with the UK without a single reference to the Irish people - then it will risk antagonise vast sections of Irish society - something which they'd live to regret come election time.

Posted by: Nathan at July 30, 2005 04:07 PM


Clarification: Solidarity tax would be introduced in the Irish Republic with immediate effect as a sign of goodwill and future intent. Anthem not anthems

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 04:09 PM


INMO the two biggest arguments for a change in the status of NI are

1/ That the 'British' identity itself is in the process of radical change. The sort of 'Britishness' which attracts the unionists vanished sometime during the last few decades. We're all in the EU now and that will continue to become a more important part of all our identity.

2/ The economic arguments now are in favor of unity. We're moving in that direction in any case in all sorts of unexpected ways from UTV becoming an all-Ireland company to Paisley's discovery during the foot-and-mouth that even Protestant cows are Irish. It's going to happen.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 04:19 PM


UTV does not limit itself to Ireland:

its a Both-Islands company!

Posted by: slug at July 30, 2005 04:26 PM


All very comendable George, but your point on protestant culture doesn't bode well does it? your thoughts on income tax sound excellent, flags and anthems should be sorted out now as far i'm corncerned, an anthem that we can all enjoy and sing along to would do this this country the world of good but do you really think thats enough for the people who class themselves as British?

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 04:41 PM


"it's a Both-Islands company"

Fair point. I do believe that we are almost at the stage where early Irish unity becomes inevitable but the form of that unity has yet to be determined. It won't be what any of us are expecting and I'd like to see Brussels move far more into the picture.

Nationalists don't trust London and unionists don't trust Dublin, or indeed anybody including themselves. We will need a neutral figure, a European Mitchell for the political bit in a few more years. Surely Scandanavia could provide us with one?

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 04:46 PM


Lib2016,
I don't want to be confrontational but can you explain how the identity of approx 1 million people is/has been eroded over the last half century, I suspect that none of us really understand each others culture, correct me if i'm wrong!

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 04:51 PM


robbo,
why doesn't it bode well? You want to be persuaded so I have to persuade you that Ulster Protestants and their culture would be an intricate part of the new state. No better way than enshrining their rights in the constitution.

What do you want me to say, "trust me, it will be all okay"?

You seem to think it's a question of showing that there is a place for Britishness in this new state and that it will be accepted. That is easily done in my view. It may take time but it is achievable.

However, you also seem to think that it doesnt matter what the people of this island do to convince Ulster Protestants that their welfare and culture, as well as our own, will flourish best in an all-island state, because anyone who classes themselves as British could never live in an Irish state.

In other words, you are foreigners to me and my compatriots and always will be, no matter what we do or say.

The natural progression of this is that if there ever was a majority in favour of unification you would fight it as a foreign annexation.

Yet you expect hundreds of thousands of Irish people to happily live in what they consider a British one.

This is a recipe for disaster in my view because it implies superiority of one state over another.

The British state can accommodate a minority Irish culture but a 21st century all-island Irish state couldn't possibly accommodate a minority British culture. That is patent nonsense in my view.

Both are equally possible. Maybe you could now return the favour and tell me what reasons the Irish Unionist Party gave for opting out of being in the same jurisdiction as the rest of us all those years ago and, most importantly, which of those reasons are still applicable today in 2005, when you look at the Irish Republic.

What problems have we addressed and what issues are still outstanding?

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 05:04 PM


The nature of 'Britishness' has changed so much in the last half century that I find it difficult to know where to begin. Heard about getting rid of sizable bits of the Empire, joining the 'Common Market', Home Rule for Scotland and Wales, have you?

The changes in 'Irishness' are just as deep. Electing a female Civil Rights lawyer as President was a small but important sign of the change in the attitude towards a particularly reactionary branch of the Catholic Church. Taking leading roles in crucial negotiations for the EU in the GATT talks at the end of the eighties helped our international credibility. Even qualifying in the 'footie' helped but obviously being able to buy and sell the wee North is crucial.

The declining unionist population, now well short of one million, has visibly lost heart. Compare the antics at Garnerville to the UWC strike. Or even more to the point - compare the threats of unionist politicans now to the threats of unionist politicans then.

Posted by: Lib2016 at July 30, 2005 05:12 PM


"Nationalists don't trust London and unionists don't trust Dublin"

Nationalist probably trust London more than we do.

Posted by: bertie at July 30, 2005 05:27 PM


"The changes in 'Irishness' are just as deep. Electing a female Civil Rights lawyer as President was a small but important sign of the change in the attitude towards a particularly reactionary branch of the Catholic Church."

Your well on the ball, lib2016 - I made a similar comment to that in Ireland's Greatest Woman thread a short time ago.


Posted by: Nathan at July 30, 2005 05:28 PM


Sorry, that link has proved to be faulty.

Here we go again - Ireland's Greatest Woman

Posted by: Nathan at July 30, 2005 05:37 PM


Nathan

Your 4.07PM is probably correct.

Which confirms my initial point.

If the broad population of Ireland can't or won't deal with the British aspect of their identity, unity with their British fellow-islanders remains a pipe-dream.

Because frankly a prosperous 26-county Irish Republic ain't that bad, is it?!

Posted by: IJP at July 30, 2005 05:50 PM


Nathan

Nothing, and I truly mean nothing will be as we expect it to be. The changes that have hit the South are already happening here. The election of Paisley was er- a slight disappointment for some of us but the next generation will see things very differently.

We are spending time on this board worrying about the past when 10% of the Irish population is likely to be Chinese in Easter 2016. A change I welcome but one which should be managed.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 05:50 PM


IJP,
The people of this island can and would deal with it because a prosperous 32-County Republic would be better.

When the height is won, then there is ease.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 06:00 PM


George,
I'll give you an example, Ardoyne, now I might not agree with the OO marching through Ardoyne but I also cannot accept that a few bands and a couple of lodges could provoke that kind of reaction, I mean there was pre prepared petrol bombs, golf balls with nails through them thrown at the marchers, now you cannot expect me to accept that this is accepting the protestant culture (we could go into this in much greater depth as i'm sure you know).

George, I'm a working class man, I want whats best for my family and while I admire your love of your country "trust me" just doesnt work for me, George I would love nothing else for everyone on the Island of Ireland to get on and live in peace but how would approx 1 million protestants who class themselves as British be expected just to change nationality, how would that work?

As the for the last part of your post post, your putting words in my mouth George, if you read further up the posts I have said that i have no problem with republicans its just the leadership, I just dont trust them, and as far as i'm concerned trust is what we need on this Island.

I've already stated that I can be persuaded, I mean i want whats best for my family, but I haven't been persuaded by any of the points so far.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 06:20 PM


Lib2016,
What has the election of a female civil rights lawyer got to do with people having a British identity?

I've said before, i don't want to be confrontational but I see no decline In the unionist population, also why do you think people have lost heart, why? is it because they dont see themselves as British anymore, I mean if that was the case there would be a united Ireland tommorow.

I agree with you that threats from unionist politicans get us nowhere but I haven't heard any threats coming from them latley, If i'm wrong please tell me.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 06:36 PM


Lib2016 you say:

"the 'British' identity itself is in the process of radical change. The sort of 'Britishness' which attracts the unionists vanished sometime during the last few decades." ...

And you add in clarification:

"The nature of 'Britishness' has changed so much in the last half century that I find it difficult to know where to begin. Heard about getting rid of sizable bits of the Empire, joining the 'Common Market', Home Rule for Scotland and Wales, have you?"

Lib: To suggest this is the vision of Britain that still attracts unionists you are either very out of touch with the values of your average unionist person, or just deliberately being cheeky :)

In case you don't meet too many unionists, I can assure you they hold fairly standard attitudes on these issues and are not mourning the loss of the Empire, or regretting the entry into the EU. Devolution to Scotland and Wales - if anything - makes NI fit better into the UK than before as the NI devolved arrangements that unionists are negotiating for can be viewed as falling into a UK-wide framework rather than being an exception to them. The "unionists in crisis" stuff is really not how it feels. There is a lot of work to do, improvements to make, and, yes, warts to remove, but a lot of progress has been achieved.

Posted by: slug at July 30, 2005 06:50 PM


Well said slug, put far better than I could.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 06:55 PM


robbo

Northern Ireland was set up because of the threats of Unionist politicans. Both 'Irishness' and 'Britishness' have changed completely in character and its time for them to look at the world again.

What sort of 'Britishness' do you think you have? The unionist leader is a man whom most British people detest and revile and whose 'Britishness' they deny. Even he has made it perfectly clear that any loyalty he has is purely to a 'Protestant Crown' which is itself an idea most British people would laugh at.

The world has moved on and the unionist population is declining faster than the nationalist one. It's a fact and I can't change it nor would I if I could.

It's good of you to discuss this politely. It's alright to disagree and unecessary for any of us to be confrontational. Sorry if I come across that way.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 07:09 PM


"The "unionists in crisis" stuff is really not how it feels. There is a lot of work to do, improvements to make, and, yes, warts to remove, but a lot of progress has been achieved".

I feel that if the Unionist politicians woke up and joined the rest of us in the 21st century, then we would be looking a much stronger movement, the inability to look beyond the old stereotypes as to who their potential electorate could be, is losing thousands of vote and stronger support for the British link.

George,

Robbo has mentioned one section of the society that would take a monumental amount of convincing before they would join the all-Ireland state.

How would you approach the other group I was talking about last night, middle-class people who whilst not the type to wave the flag on the 12th, would resent the enormous amount of disruption that a United Ireland might bring to their lives? Most of them are doing very well at the minute, thank .Why should they sacrifice this comfortable and settled life they have at the minute( even more so if they're working in the public sector) for the uncertainty of 32 county Republic?

Posted by: Paul at July 30, 2005 07:29 PM


Paul

Even several years ago the Equality Commission as well as DUP politicans, most especially Gregory Campbell were warning that the Protestant middleclass was being replaced by a Catholic middleclass as the Protestant middleclass sought education elsewhere and were not coming back. That doesn't concern me too much - the middleclass are becoming increasingly international and they'll do alright.

It's the loyalist people who are losing jobs in the security and manufacturing industries and who are losing out (to Catholic women for some reason) in the Civil Service who do worry me. Somehow we have managed to build a society in which an ambitious loyalist is more than likely to see his future in the drugs trade.

The loyalists need education and a realistic worldview and all they are getting are the conspiracy theories and paranoia of the DUP. It's not sustainable and it's certainly not right.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 08:08 PM


Lib2016,
I understand what your saying, I don't like Paisley that much myself, what you have to understand though is that the unionist people have the exact same feelings for Gerry Adams and Martin Mc (not going to attempt to spell it), regarding the unionist population, could you please provide a link that justifies what

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 08:23 PM


Lib2016,
I understand what your saying, I don't like Paisley that much myself, what you have to understand though is that the unionist people have the exact same feelings for Gerry Adams and Martin Mc (not going to attempt to spell it), regarding the unionist population, could you please provide a link that justifies what your saying.

Lib2016, I wasn't saying that you were being confrontational, I just didn't want to sound as if I was.

Regards.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 08:25 PM


George

Sadly I see scant evidence of any ability to deal with the fundamental British identity of this island on this thread.

What I see is people mocking Unionists for being British as if it is some no-longer-relevant relic. A long way from the vision outlined in the Agreement of respecting the British identity of many people on this island. But I sincerely hope I've picked that one up wrongly from what has been written.

Whatever, it is a long way from what I am suggesting is the truth that has to be recognized prior to any stable, prosperous 32-county Republic - that not only are Unionists British, and not only is Britishness relevant, but in fact that British identity is a fundamental part of everyone's identity on this island.

Posted by: IJP at July 30, 2005 09:08 PM


Robbo - "Martin Mc (not going to attempt to spell it)" Spell what - Guinness? Christ - the level of contribution to this site hits a new low.

Posted by: Bored at July 30, 2005 09:20 PM


IJP,
Do you think there will ever be a time when there will be a stable and prosperous 32-county-republic? I'm interested to hear another persons point of view!

Not just IJP, anybody?

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 09:23 PM


IJP

The prosperous stability you are searching for isn't available in any country in the real world. Britain will continue to evolve and struggle with multiculturalism and its own identity as will we. The vast majority of people on this island don't have or want a British identity and you lost the right to continue trying to impose one on them quite some time ago.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 09:27 PM


Bored,
I'm sorry if i offended you! I wasn't trying to be offensive, i'm sorry if my questions bore you but I do want to know other points of view, I have mine, you obviously have yours! would you please try and answer the question I just asked, I mean anybody can be rude.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 09:33 PM


Lib2016,
What is this British identity, a few posts ago you said unionists were losing their British identity, now you claim that its being imposed on you.

(any link to the unionist population in decline)

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 09:40 PM


George
Do you think that we are stupid? That the advantages to a United Ireland are there, plain for all to see, but we just don't have vision or the mental agility to see them. So if you repeat it often enough the penny will eventually drop.

We aren't stupid, and we don't want a United Ireland. Perhaps in time we will (though I doubt it), but we will not be converted through intimidation, pressure or clever talk.

What we do want, is to get on with our lives. To live in peace and harmony with everybody on the island, to bring up our children, to build a better economy, and to live by normal democratic standards including a respect for law and order. Is that too much to ask for?

I believe that there will be many from both sides of the community that will be of a similar opinion.

Posted by: Moderate Unionist at July 30, 2005 09:40 PM


Robbo

Both main communities on this island, nationalist and unionist are declining, the unionist one faster than the nationalist one but that could change.

Whatever happens there are going to be huge changes in society and the things we are worrying about now may never happen - though we'll probably have awhole other set of problems.

The South has already started seeing huge changes and I believe the same thing is starting to happen here.

I believe (and I could be wrong) that the Westminster layer of government will be hugely affected by homerule for the Celtic fringe, which includes us. The DUP will have no voice in London and we will all move gradually towards talking to Brussels through Dublin because we have good economic reasons for doing so. Brussels is where the real power is.


....and now G'night! Thanks for the craic.

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 09:55 PM


Bored,
I would like to explain my M'c comment.

A few years ago i can remember watching a program where Martin Mc and Ken Mc were chatting, Martin Mc was in a discussion and proceeded to tell the viewing public that he couldn't get a job because his surname was spelt in a different way than Ken Mc, now god forbid me from being politicaly incorrect but I didn't want to offend anyone.

Posted by: robbo at July 30, 2005 10:02 PM


Posted by Slug :

"In case you don't meet too many unionists, I can assure you they hold fairly standard attitudes on these issues and are not mourning the loss of the Empire, or regretting the entry into the EU. Devolution to Scotland and Wales - if anything - makes NI fit better into the UK than before as the NI devolved arrangements that unionists are negotiating for can be viewed as falling into a UK-wide framework rather than being an exception to them."

Obviously you've never paid A Tangled Web a visit LOL!!!

Posted by: Bill at July 30, 2005 10:20 PM


Bill

I came back online to apologise (sort of) for laughing at people's sense of being British. It's only a few years ago (less than ten!) that we were laughing at people for hanging onto the 'Holy Catholic Ireland dancing at the crossroads' version of being Irish.

The unionist idea of being British is due for a similar overhaul but nationalists have little room to mock them for that.

G'night all!

Posted by: lib2016 at July 30, 2005 10:35 PM


Bill - LOL.

Posted by: slug at July 30, 2005 10:35 PM


IJP, Robbo, Moderate Unionist,

What I am saying is that there seems to be an inbuilt idea within unionism that a unitary Irish state couldn't ever deliver for the needs of, and protect, all the people of Northern Ireland but that the UK can.

This is despite the evidence of the last 85 years, which points to the exact opposite.

We can look at this in 4 ways:

1. Only the UK can deliver for the needs of the people of NI
2. Only a unitary Irish state can deliver
3. Both can deliver
4. Neither can deliver

My concern is that the overwhelming majority of unionism believes only view 1, while there is a growing number thinking view 4.

For all of us to get to a situation of being truly equal in each other's eyes, we have to get to view three because views 1 and 2 imply one state is naturally superior to the other.

If views 1 and 2 remain the majority view in both camps, then eventually the hatred will erupt into violence again.

Posted by: George at July 30, 2005 11:08 PM


Hello

Not often I'm on here. But I see the debate on whether or not there will be a united Ireland. I am of southern origin, Protestant, parents from Dublin, living in the north since I was 3 months old, went to school up here, but most weekends back in Dub. I am married to a Belfast girl who came from a unionist background (Tiger's Bay) but I and my family would be fairly strongly nationalist, except one of my sisters who doesn't give a s*** about any politics! I have worked, in the north, in strongly nationalist and strongly unionist areas (West Belfast, East Belfast, Carrickfergus, Newry, and know many people very well in all those places).
Anyway, that's all just intended to give a background to my views, rather than to "pigeonhole" me - which would be hard!
I think a United Ireland is eventually inevitable. But it needs a lot of work not just by both the Prods and the Catholics "up north" but also everyone "down south". Southerners, the vast majority of who claim to be of nationalist perspective, and who become misty eyed at talk of national unity, have mostly a collective amnesia when it comes to actual measures to bring unity about. I WANT a United Ireland, so I'm not being critical of nationalism as a concept. But the toe-gazing has to stop. Think about this: how many southerners do we know who say hey want unity, but witter on about not wanting them'uns up there - let them keep their oul troubles, an' suer who'd want Paisley in the Dail? Life's too short for all that. Be honest now, those of you from the 26 counties: you've heard that said in the bar, haven't you?
The question of whether unionists can be persuaded to accept it, or outvoted (in which case they have to accept it), is just one question. If Rev. Ian and Nigel Dodds went on RET's Six-One next week and said "Please, Mr Ahern, take us in, we're tired of being British", tell me this: how many people - really - in the 26 counties would actually go out and vote, wholeheartedly for it? Maybe a majority, all right, but I would think much smaller a one than many think. With the South having moved on light years from the priest-ridden-turf-bog scenario painted by the likes of Trimble and others of his ilk, many people "down south" really can't be arsed.

Am I wrong? Have I been hearing things, or misinterpreting what my friends in Dublin say, ever since Bono was playing in McGonagles?

Big J

Posted by: Big J at July 30, 2005 11:33 PM


Hello

Not often I'm on here. But I see the debate on whether or not there will be a united Ireland. I am of southern origin, Protestant, parents from Dublin, living in the north since I was 3 months old, went to school up here, but most weekends back in Dub. I am married to a Belfast girl who came from a unionist background (Tiger's Bay) but I and my family would be fairly strongly nationalist, except one of my sisters who doesn't give a s*** about any politics! I have worked, in the north, in strongly nationalist and strongly unionist areas (West Belfast, East Belfast, Carrickfergus, Newry, and know many people very well in all those places).
Anyway, that's all just intended to give a background to my views, rather than to "pigeonhole" me - which would be hard!
I think a United Ireland is eventually inevitable. But it needs a lot of work not just by both the Prods and the Catholics "up north" but also everyone "down south". Southerners, the vast majority of who claim to be of nationalist perspective, and who become misty eyed at talk of national unity, have mostly a collective amnesia when it comes to actual measures to bring unity about. I WANT a United Ireland, so I'm not being critical of nationalism as a concept. But the toe-gazing has to stop. Think about this: how many southerners do we know who say hey want unity, but witter on about not wanting them'uns up there - let them keep their oul troubles, an' suer who'd want Paisley in the Dail? Life's too short for all that. Be honest now, those of you from the 26 counties: you've heard that said in the bar, haven't you?
The question of whether unionists can be persuaded to accept it, or outvoted (in which case they have to accept it), is just one question. If Rev. Ian and Nigel Dodds went on RET's Six-One next week and said "Please, Mr Ahern, take us in, we're tired of being British", tell me this: how many people - really - in the 26 counties would actually go out and vote, wholeheartedly for it? Maybe a majority, all right, but I would think much smaller a one than many think. With the South having moved on light years from the priest-ridden-turf-bog scenario painted by the likes of Trimble and others of his ilk, many people "down south" really can't be arsed.

Am I wrong? Have I been hearing things, or misinterpreting what my friends in Dublin say, ever since Bono was playing in McGonagles?

Big J

Posted by: Big J at July 30, 2005 11:34 PM


Hello

Not often I'm on here. But I see the debate on whether or not there will be a united Ireland. I am of southern origin, Protestant, parents from Dublin, living in the north since I was 3 months old, went to school up here, but most weekends back in Dub. I am married to a Belfast girl who came from a unionist background (Tiger's Bay) but I and my family would be fairly strongly nationalist, except one of my sisters who doesn't give a s*** about any politics! I have worked, in the north, in strongly nationalist and strongly unionist areas (West Belfast, East Belfast, Carrickfergus, Newry, and know many people very well in all those places).
Anyway, that's all just intended to give a background to my views, rather than to "pigeonhole" me - which would be hard!
I think a United Ireland is eventually inevitable. But it needs a lot of work not just by both the Prods and the Catholics "up north" but also everyone "down south". Southerners, the vast majority of who claim to be of nationalist perspective, and who become misty eyed at talk of national unity, have mostly a collective amnesia when it comes to actual measures to bring unity about. I WANT a United Ireland, so I'm not being critical of nationalism as a concept. But the toe-gazing has to stop. Think about this: how many southerners do we know who say hey want unity, but witter on about not wanting them'uns up there - let them keep their oul troubles, an' suer who'd want Paisley in the Dail? Life's too short for all that. Be honest now, those of you from the 26 counties: you've heard that said in the bar, haven't you?
The question of whether unionists can be persuaded to accept it, or outvoted (in which case they have to accept it), is just one question. If Rev. Ian and Nigel Dodds went on RET's Six-One next week and said "Please, Mr Ahern, take us in, we're tired of being British", tell me this: how many people - really - in the 26 counties would actually go out and vote, wholeheartedly for it? Maybe a majority, all right, but I would think much smaller a one than many think. With the South having moved on light years from the priest-ridden-turf-bog scenario painted by the likes of Trimble and others of his ilk, many people "down south" really can't be arsed.

Am I wrong? Have I been hearing things, or misinterpreting what my friends in Dublin say, ever since Bono was playing in McGonagles?

Big J

Posted by: Big J at July 30, 2005 11:37 PM


Hello

Not often I'm on here. But I see the debate on whether or not there will be a united Ireland. I am of southern origin, Protestant, parents from Dublin, living in the north since I was 3 months old, went to school up here, but most weekends back in Dub. I am married to a Belfast girl who came from a unionist background (Tiger's Bay) but I and my family would be fairly strongly nationalist, except one of my sisters who doesn't give a s*** about any politics! I have worked, in the north, in strongly nationalist and strongly unionist areas (West Belfast, East Belfast, Carrickfergus, Newry, and know many people very well in all those places).
Anyway, that's all just intended to give a background to my views, rather than to "pigeonhole" me - which would be hard!
I think a United Ireland is eventually inevitable. But it needs a lot of work not just by both the Prods and the Catholics "up north" but also everyone "down south". Southerners, the vast majority of who claim to be of nationalist perspective, and who become misty eyed at talk of national unity, have mostly a collective amnesia when it comes to actual measures to bring unity about. I WANT a United Ireland, so I'm not being critical of nationalism as a concept. But the toe-gazing has to stop. Think about this: how many southerners do we know who say hey want unity, but witter on about not wanting them'uns up there - let them keep their oul troubles, an' suer who'd want Paisley in the Dail? Life's too short for all that. Be honest now, those of you from the 26 counties: you've heard that said in the bar, haven't you?
The question of whether unionists can be persuaded to accept it, or outvoted (in which case they have to accept it), is just one question. If Rev. Ian and Nigel Dodds went on RET's Six-One next week and said "Please, Mr Ahern, take us in, we're tired of being British", tell me this: how many people - really - in the 26 counties would actually go out and vote, wholeheartedly for it? Maybe a majority, all right, but I would think much smaller a one than many think. With the South having moved on light years from the priest-ridden-turf-bog scenario painted by the likes of Trimble and others of his ilk, many people "down south" really can't be arsed.

Am I wrong? Have I been hearing things, or misinterpreting what my friends in Dublin say, ever since Bono was playing in McGonagles?

Big J

Posted by: Big J at July 30, 2005 11:40 PM


I am quite ignorant about the unionist community so excuse me. Could you please tell me, are there any of you who would possibly vote for a united Ireland, if it guaraunteed your rights would be respected and you would be treated as equals?

Posted by: Mister at July 31, 2005 12:28 AM


Big J,
alternative night on a Thursday in McGonagles. Wonderful. Had just managed to get in there as an underage chap and they close it down.

There is a large degree of truth in what you say but it call comes back to trust and respect for each other.

Unionists may laugh at this but many southerners would actually love assurances that they don't have any intentions of ever going to war with them, even if one day they are democratically voted into a united Ireland against their will.

If Paisley, for example, came out and categorically said unionism would accept the decision and work it to the best of his not insubstantial ability (even approaching 80) if it came to pass in return for nationalists fully working the reformed Northern Irish system for as long as it exists, which could be forever, then we'd be in a whole new era.

Dreamer that I am I would like to see a day when the people of NI can make a decision on their future constitutional status, a bit like a grade A student ponders Law or Medicine.

I just worry the pupil will instead be slapped with an ASBO by the authorites for his unruly behaviour or the local vigilantes will dosh out one hell of a beating from which he never recovers.

Posted by: George at July 31, 2005 12:29 AM


robbo,you say you neede convincing, here goes...

you have made some interesting points in your previous posts, and its people like you who will make a 32 county republic work for people of your tradition. but in my view you shouldn't think of yourself as a diffirent tradition or community, this is a real northern ireland way of thinking. You are from whatever town you are from and thats it, but your ancestry is maybe british. This is the way people think in the republic. When people in the north start thinking like this it will be a great day.

Whether he likes it or not ian paisley is as irish as gerry adams but he is for some reason unwilling to accept this. If you are born in ireland you are irish, you can call yourself british all you like but when you visit england people will refer to you as "the irish chap" does this offend you??

I am from the same tradition as you, my family are mostly potestant and i went to a mostly protestant school in my home town, religion was never a big thing for me but i never once felt that my nationality was diffirent to that of my fellow irish citizens. All the propaganda bleeted by unionist politicians is pure nonsesnse. Trimble and paisley have constantly made untrue remarks about the republic. The irish state was founded by irish people who were protetants, the republic is as much a catholic state as a protestant one. Proof of this is in dublin where both of the citys major chrurches are still protestant, these are cathedrals, the national cathedral of ireland and christchurch, cathedral of dublin. The catholic church still has no proper cathedral in dublin. If you visit st patricks cathedral (church of ireland) you will see a tricolour flying inside, a flag which represents irish people of all traditions.

There is no division in society in the republic. Many people of our tradition live here in the republic and we find unionism rediculous and laughable, and the fact that people actually vote for it and buy into that kind of nonsense. I find that i have less and less in common with the northern church goer than anybody here at home. Unionists had fears when the republic came about that they would be miss treated this never happened and church numbers are up for the church of ireland here. you didnt see donegal unionists starting a war or leaving for northern ireland when the republic came about did you!

You can still be british and live in ireland. there are many british who have come hear to work in this thriving economy and secular society so there is certainly place for the "west brit".

This country is fully democratic and all its people have always had a vote- unlike the north!
unionist parties have the right to sit in dail eireann along with the sdlp and soon probably sinn fein. In a 32 county republic northern parties would make 20% of the national vote compaired to the uk where you have only 2% representation, and that is when you dont have direct rule!!! what a sick joke the north is!

We currently have the situation where somebody very far away accross the water is making decisions for you, not very good ones because hes not from your town, he doesnt have to live with his decisions because he and his family dont live where you do. And for all the above reasons he doesnt really care about northern ireland, in fact polls show 3 out of 4 brittons dont care. We have two currencies, two welfare systems, water systems, electrical networks gas networks. and the list goes on .... Why why why????????

The economy in the republic is booming, the six counties could be a part of this. One currency would eliminate problems caused by the border and other problems caused by two different systems on the one island. Most business men in the north are finding they are emotional unionists but business nationalists. No boarder means the reopenening of the rail lines that existed before the boarder killed them such as the sligo leitrim and northern counties railway.
The derry to belfast railway is in a very bad state and the only other line the north has goes to dublin, an element of hate for unionist parties, so tell me where do you see irelands railways in 10 years time. Remeber how unionist leadership gave us the M1 in the wrong direction well i dont hold much hope for the railways of the north, meanwhile down here the network is expanding! Transport needs to be on an all ireland basis, remind me again, how may flights that leave belfast actually go somewhere other than the uk!

Still not enough reasons, the prospect of real prooven government that works, the possibilty of deciding more for yourself than the colour of the tarmac outside your house, being completely neutral in affairs such as iraq. And most of all, we both know, as long as the six counties remains in the uk there will never be peace, in a six county satelet where a growing number 42% at present vote in favour of constitutional change there will never be peace. in a 32 county republic where evryones rights are protected there most definately will be peace, it happened before and it will happen again.

Obviously Sf scares you just as it- and the Dup scares me, but whats wrong with voting Sdlp. If you voted for the peace process and the GFA you should vote sdlp to continue the GFA in a 32 county republic.

So there you have it, if you need some more reasons i can think of many more, its obvoious to me that you have never been to the republic and its time you made a visit. A vote for unity will be a vote for unity of the people of the north as well as the unity of ireland.

The existance of northern ireland has always hindered the growth and developement of our country and constantly held us back if you want examples- no problem

Now remind me, what are the benifits of being in the uk robbo?

Posted by: the convincer at July 31, 2005 12:55 AM


the convincer
Remember Bandon
Remember the Irish Industrial schools
Remember Noel Browne
Remember the Border campaign
Remember 1983 referundum
Remember 1992 injunction
Remember they haven't gone away you know

Only playing devils avocate of course. I know that the Irish Republic is moving forward rapidly but has the Republican movement or are we just in another phase.

So what are the benefits of being in the UK?
For many people life is not bad, for others we need peace and stability to address their issues.

Posted by: Moderate Unionist at July 31, 2005 02:31 AM


Mister

For me - no.

It's a fair question and there may be some who do not want a uniited ireland because of a "protestant rights" concern. Others, like me are not interested because that's not our indentity, unless the Republic wanted to rejoin the Union. Even then I would not want Ireland to be a single module in that Union. It would either be NI and what is now the Republic being the demarcation, or the nine counties of Ulster as a unit(my preference)

Posted by: bertie at July 31, 2005 09:10 AM


"We have two currencies, two welfare systems, water systems, electrical networks gas networks. and the list goes on .... Why why why????????". Because the spliters in the south wanted to run things for themselves.

"I am quite ignorant about the unionist community so excuse me. Could you please tell me, are there any of you who would possibly vote for a united Ireland, if it guaraunteed your rights would be respected and you would be treated as equals?". You mean like they've had in the UK for centuries? Equal rights for Protestants in the Republic is a relativly new thing. It's only in the last 30 years that the "special position" of the Catholic church has been removed from the constitution, divorce and contraception have been legalised and homosexuality has been de-criminalised. The Republic has come a long way in 30 years, but it HAD to, to catch up with the rest of the British Isles.

"Others, like me are not interested because that's not our indentity, unless the Republic wanted to rejoin the Union." And there's the rub, if Irish nationalists wanted unity, they could have it in the morning by re-joining the UK, but just like 80 years ago, they put running their own affairs in one part of the island ahead of unity (as is their right). The Welsh (and especially) the Scots have proved that you can have successsful self governence and autonomy within the UK. This in turn has led to a reduction in the number of people suppoting independence for Wales and Scotland.

In 50 years it won't matter a jot where they old national borders were drawn, and the power of the nation state will have disappeared to the federal Europe. Is it any wonder that the most anti-European party in this country is SF/IRA (who have opposed every move towards a European unity). So people want to live in the 19th century, but it shouldn't stop the rest of us moving on.


Posted by: Keith M at July 31, 2005 10:48 AM


"In 50 years it won't matter a jot where they old national borders were drawn"

I think in our own peculiar case it will happen a lot quicker than that. Unlike 30 years ago for many Unionists, the Republic is no longer the bogeyman it was for our fathers and grandfathers. My perfect solution(as a Unionist) is that if the situation settles within NI, we'll see within a very short-time, a government and system working for all the people,irrespective of their background. Technically the state would still be British, but for the vast majority of residents that would less important than the fact that we're living in peace with each other.

Unionists would I hope, tentatively at first, start to rediscover the parts of our Irish identity that the Provos and our own extremists have tried to take away from us. And further on from this point,I reckon many within Unionism would start to question whether the link with London and her Britannic majesty is best serving the long term interests of our community.

But it's not something that will happen overnight and certainly not whilst Sinn fein remains as any kind of political force within the island. The greatest threat to not only long term political unity, but also the unity of people within N.Ireland and the island as a whole, lies with the fear and hatred that the vast majority of Unionists feel for Sinn fein. The fear that they will not rest until every trace of Britishness is wiped off the island and the hatred for the crimes that many in their leadership have committed and which their apologists still make excuses for. Personally I think it's unrealistic that SF will ever be in a position to carry out some of their more extreme "Irishification" policies, but obviously it's what people believe to be true rather than what the real facts which are important, especially here.

Apologies,I've rambled on too long here. In summary, whether I'm being ruled ultimately by Dublin or London the fact remains that every bone of me is British. But work on peace and unity first within NI and who knows what will happen 20,30,40 years down the line.

Hope all this that makes sense.

Posted by: Paul at July 31, 2005 11:33 AM


George

There is no question that an all-Ireland State could fully reflect the British identity I speak of and be very successful. It's just we seem to prove, time after time, that Nationalists prefer a Nationalist Ireland rather than a truly inclusive one (as illustrated by, with apologies to Maca, responses to my 'Commonwealth of Ireland' proposal).

Mister

I cannot answer for any 'Unionist community' because I don't think one exists. NI Protestants (deliberate definition) do not form a cohesive group. To many, Protestant identity is paramount. To others, a broadly British ('white cliffs of Dover') is important. Many do see the world from an all-Ireland context, others want nothing whatsoever to do with the Republic.

Given the proposal you offer (guarantee of rights etc), most Protestants I know would vote for it in preference to the status quo. But unfortunately your proposal is not what Nationalists are offering - that is the crux of the problem.

Posted by: IJP at July 31, 2005 12:08 PM


KiethM

In 50 years it won't matter a jot where they old national borders were drawn, and the power of the nation state will have disappeared to the federal Europe.

I don't think that is inevitable or even likely. Pushing the federalist agenda is provoking the reaction that could undo the whole European project. If the EU survives it will be as a union of nation states. We will still have to solve our own problems.

Posted by: Henry94 at July 31, 2005 02:15 PM


IJP,
We in the south make up over 80% of "nationalists" on this island and that percentage is growing. If the population keeps at its current growth rate, it will be 85% by 2020.

What I've outlined regarding rights for NI Protestants and unionists is basically what I believe would be on offer to unionism from the Irish Republic - the overwhelming majority of "nationalism".

Can we deliver unionism from Sinn Fein's Irishification dream? In a word, yes. Why? Because it is as alien to us as it is to you.

In fact, I actually believe Conor Cruise O'Brien on this one, we are the only ones who can and the sooner unionism, and we ourselves (if you pardon the pun) for that matter, realise this the better.

The maintenance of the NI status quo, direct rule, a stagnant economy where a superfluous public sector job for life is considered a worthy attainment for a young person, a huge subversive underclass, whole communities in the hands of gunmen etc. will eventually destroy the place and by then it may be too late to pick up the pieces.

The trigger will probably be when the comfort zone for the middle-class apparatchiks and their offspring is no longer comfortable enough for them and they start leaving in thei