There is no doubt that the provos would be happier with Jimmy Spratt than McDonnell.

They're distributing a leaflet in the constituency showing Maskey ahead in the Assembly election and claiming that he's the front runner for nationalism. Totally ignoring the fact that the SDLP actually had 2 MLAs elected in South Belfast.

It would be sickening if you hadn't already come to expect it.

"The idea that it is possible is motivating their activists to get out on the streets."

Where did this idea come from? The SDLP have been dreadfull on the ground in SB with the other MLA not even canvassing for or with Alisdair. Activists have been shipped over from the Ormeau & Markets to canvass Balmoral with very poor returns I might add. IMO big Al will touch 9000 votes, nowhere near enough!

It appears that Sinn Fein would rather that ordinary decent republicans in South Belfast were represented by the DUP's Pratt or UUP's McGimp.

Probably cos he's done such a good job in West Belfast, he'd rather they waitied until they can experience the glory that is brought to a constituency from a Sinn Fein MP.

Thankfully voters will see Adams' speech for what it is; clear evidence of their desire to wipe out the SDLP. The Sinners should watch what they wish for.

It appears that Sinn Fein would rather that ordinary decent republicans in South Belfast were represented by the DUP's Pratt or UUP's McGimp.

Probably cos he's done such a good job in West Belfast, he'd rather they waitied until they can experience the glory that is brought to a constituency from a Sinn Fein MP.

Thankfully voters will see Adams' claims for what they are; clear evidence of their desire to wipe out the SDLP. The Shinners should watch what they wish for.

carlosblancos

A party leader has to try to maximise the vote for the party. If the SDLP wanted an electoral pact they should have said so. Nonetheless nationalist voters in north and south Belfast should vote for the nationalist candidate with the best chance of winning the seat.

A pity that SF are happier at the prospect of a DUP MP for South Belfast than an SDLP man. It probably shows SF's true intent - they would sooner see a DUP victor than a nationalist.

Hopefully nationalist voters in south Belfast will display a greater maturity and less selfishness than Gerry Adams. The figures are there and the feedback appears to be there. It is a fact that McDonnell can win the seat. Whether he does depends on getting the core SDLP vote out and on how a bloc of traditional SF voters act on the day.

Henry who said anything about a pact?

Any analysis of previous voting patterns will show that AmcD has a very good change as any to take the seat.

What Adam is trying to do is steady SF nerves among comrades in the constituency where McCartney will have the most effect.

Carlos without an electoral pact I would suggest there is a snowballs chance in hell of republicans biting the bullet and tactically voting for the SDLP in this constituency after McCartney. Therefore what Adams is saying is true.

Prediction:

A McD has as much chance of Chelsea making it through to the Final of the Champions League... In short, no chance!!!

Go on the Pool!! YWNWA

May Slugger be with you :0)

Belfastwhite,

Last time round:

Martin Smyth (UUP) 17,008 (44.8%)
Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,609 (30.6%)
Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 2,968 (7.8%)
Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,894 (7.6%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,042 (5.4%)

Even in the highly unlikely event that Maskey's vote goes up an SDLP win is possible depending on which was the unionist vote splits and what way the ex Womens coalition goes. Also Alliance could vote tactically, and they're unlikely to do so to help Maskey or Spratt.

The only reason why Adams said that McD wouldn't win is cos he doesn't want McD to win. Simple as that.

S.Belfast will stay Unionist. There is no way that a Westminster seat will be won with 12000 votes. The Unionist turnout will also be well up. The last time there was no threat from the SDLP.

The Womans Coalition votes are Alliance votes and will drift back to them.

The SF vote will stay with them. There wont be any tactical voting particularly given the fact that McDonnell tried to destroy SF by his disgaceful use of the McCartney sisters.

Still, despite everything, I marvel at the Shinners.

So, Pete, McDonnell's political rhetoric over the sisters of a gutted working class Catholic was 'disgraceful'. What words, I wonder, can you possibly find for the gutting, or any of the other truly disgraceful things Northern Ireland has suffered in the last 3o years?

Get a grip son. Sticks and stones and all that sort of thing.

It suits Adams for McDonnell to win, even though he'll never admit it. He can hardly send his chief lieutenant in Belfast as a sacrificial lamb to develop the South Belfast vote, watch him carve a niche for himself, then shaft him by helping his main rival for the nationalist vote. Remember the emotive power of the "greening of the west" - welcome to the "greening of Belfast". Much as I find him nauseating, I hope McDonnell does it - it would help demonstrate to north Belfast nationalists that they don't have to put up with Doddsy in perpetuity. Moreover, history demonstrates (and will do so again) that SDLP seats can be turned to SF seats just as unionist ones can.

Peter

I think 12,000 would put McD in the frame. But I'm betting on him getting around 14,500 - that would put him in poll position.

Nationalism needs a reasonably strong SDLP. We'll never get a border poll if the SDLP vote collapses. Fact is, not everyone can stomach voting for SF.

I'm not sure that there is that much difference between Mc Donnell and the two Unionists candidates on the national question.

All three want to maintain the union

harry,

"All three want to maintain the union"? So why does the SDLP claim that they want a "United Ireland" - a cunning plan to fool poor nationalist voters, eh? Lucky you are here to expose this masterplan by the SDLP.

Karl Rove

I agree.

Dear Jesus, please let me never write those four words in succession ever again. Lord watch over me in this my time of trouble.

Sorry peter

AmcD will not win SB

The only chance he has is to persuade Republicans to tactically vote for him and that is not going to happen, Republicans don't tactically vote.

I have canvassed a few of the middle-class unionist areas of SB and they have told me that they will vote for the candidate with the best chance of defeating the dup.

McGimpsey could pull it out of the bag yet

dv

The previous post was directed not at the SDLP as a whole

but at the McDonnell/McGrady faction within the party

"Lucky you are here to expose this masterplan by the SDLP"

David, I would have my doubts as to the SDLPs commitment to a united Ireland. Remember 2001? A few days before the election, John Hume couldn't give Noel Thompson a straight answer on whether they were still in favour - he kept repeating the 'post-nationalist' mantra they had adopted for that election hoping to get unionist votes.

If you look at the figures above you'll see that AMcD doesn't need Provisional tactical voting to carry the day for the SDLP.

The most important factors, in order, are:

1. How will the unionist vote split? Pretty hard to predict I'd say, therefore AMcD has a chance.

2. Faced with a choice of McGimp, Pratt and a lacklustre Rice, will Alliance and WC supporters vote tactically? Again hard to say, AMcD alienated WC voters before, but McGimp's Sandy Row comments won't help him sweep up Alliance or WC voters.

3. How will McCartney murder affect Maskey? Remember that the Markets never voted SDLP, and ony recently voted SF so are unlikely to start voting Alastair. Question is how will the Lower Ormeau (an entirely different community) vote and also will the Liberal lawyers on the Malone who voted Maskey the last time do so on this occassion?

Its premature to call this one. A resurgent McGimp campaign is good from an SDLP point of view.

Gregory won with 12,000 votes and I think Jeffrey and Lady Sylvia did it with 13,000/14,000.

In any case, its HOW THE VOTE SPLITS that matters.

It is truely laughable that the SDLP in general and Mc Donnell in particular are now seemingly interested in winning SF votes in a sectarian head count. When these people were cock of the walk all talk of pacts etc were pooh poohed.

Of all people to have begging for votes the irony of it being Alasdair is great. The boy who flew solo over the crumbs of the Deputy Mayors job is now all concerned over the thought of a unionist retaining the seat.

Bad luck Alasdair, you can't dump 20 years of baggage and reinvent yourself as one of Durkans new wave republicans. It just isn't believable

peter
"The Unionist turnout will also be well up. The last time there was no threat from the sdlp".

yes but in the same way the nationalist turnout will go up as this time there is a chance of a nationalist seat, on this basis they should cancel each other out.
The last time the unionist vote was 17,008 compared to AmcD on 11,609 so going by this even if the unionist vote this time split 60-40 McDonell would still win. Id say AmcD is in their with a good shout.

My first prediction was right!!

Go on the pool!

A McD has no chance, Spratt will walk it. Caitriona Ruane and Gerry Kelly will come closer in SD and NB.

Mark my words!

(watch this space for live blogging from Istanbul!)

paddy

Great result tonight

Will someone from the SDLP or their followers please tell me why the 2nd MLA is not working for big AL ? I have asked this question several times and noone cares to answer.
Carlos how can big Al command the support of the electorate when he cant command the support of his own party?

internal disputes within the party in South Belfast.

there are two factions within the party.

The McDonnell faction and the Carmel Hanna faction.

This has filtered down to local government candidates,with certain candidates names being omitted from literature from the other and vise versa.

There were also disagreements about one candidate canvassing in anothers stronghold.

The problems began several years ago over who was best qualified to represent the constituency at Westminster level

A large proportion within South Belfast supported Hanna,but McDonnell won the day with the support of the leadership

A messy affair,which is still continuing

And not only do the SDLP have problems with internal disputes but the UUP seem to have compltely abandoned their man!
Due to the heavy backing for Spratt from various leading Ulster Unionists in the area Jimmy should rake in alot of traditional Smyth votes and take the seat (although I admit not by a huge margin to the SDLP)
Bear in mind also that the results from the last Westminster election (shown by Carlosblancos above) do not include any kind of DUP vote and it is quite likely that the majority of Smyth voters will simply transfer to Spratt.

I don't think it's that simple Stranmillis. The dispute was never about Carmel Hanna going to Westminster, but simply McDonald’s utter paranoia about her popularity. She has never expressed an interest in that nomination. She and Catherine Molloy built up the vote in the finaghy area, while McDonald collapsed in Ormeau and beyond – her vote topped his in 2003, when he just slipped into the last seat 100 above Monica McWilliams. Now his plant Mary Kennedy is marking finaghy as her territory and won’t allow Hanna in to canvass for 2nd preference votes. The voters are asking questions. Despite this, Carmel Hanna’s supporters do seem to be genuinely promoting McDonald on the doorsteps, from what I hear

'A messy affair is right'
Last night the SB SDLP feud reached new heights with Kennedy supporters threatening to block streets in Finaghy if Carmel Hanna canvass in the area.
It's come to a sorry state if an area's MLA is threatened with violence from her fellow party members if she enters their area.

I know, I know Ormeau: what's the world coming to when Stoops starting threatening people? Don't they realise how many Shinners they'll put out of a job if they start moving into that line of work?

Ormeau,

Is that story reliable? Did you witness it or hear about it?

Disgraceful if true.

Carlos, unfortunately it is true. the leadership needs to knock a few heads together. Dr McD has had an astonishly low profile in the area. I've only had a shinner contingent at my leafy doorstep.

Although Dr.McD has a low profile, Maskey hasn't got the best either, McGimpsey has not got a clue about anything, and unfortunately that is the truth. Mr.Spratt would make the best leader for this particular area.

McDonnell seems to as unpopular within the SDLP in South Belfast as he is from those outside of the party

The old 'uncle tom' title seems to have stuck

McG is having the same problem. The UUP would probably have walked this election had they have chosen a different candidate, they seem determined to cause their own destruction ('decent people' and all that!)

Members of the ethnic minority community in south Belfast will be watching this one with interest. Smyth was about as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike when it came to the escalation in racial attacks in the area and everyone remembers Patterson's complete lack of empathy for the Chinese community in Donegall Pass. So if Spratt wins does this mean we can expect a rise in racist incidents in south Belfast, or is the DUP's bigotry only confined to catholics, the UUP and the gay community?

Actually I think you'll find that SF and the DUP poll the best with the ethnic community, I know in Strangford the DUP have tackled racist attacks head on and they have generated quite alot of support amongst the ethinic community because of this.
I also happen to know for a fact that the DUP recieve a vote from some catholics so they obviously cant be that bigoted.

Millie.

All i can say to that is that is complete bollicks. Mr. Spratt is the most capable candidate in that area. The DUP are at least able to tell the truth inlike some other parties. So at least if Spratt get's it, we can have some proper politicians.

Sam

We've never had any proper politicians because proper politics doesn't work here. After the election the government of NI will be the Northern Ireland Office, i.e. a bunch of civil servants and whoever the newly elected government sends over as the colonial administrators.

To be honest the British Government should put an end to this farce and cancel all elections here to Westminster and the Assembly. Undemocratic? So what, this entire state's undemocratic.