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Trimble's challenger pulling ahead?
David Trimble is not a man whose poltical fortunes can be written off lightly. But on this occasion his challenger is impressive. David Simpson is certainly larger and more charming. And he canvasses with a broad smile and a team of twenty around him. The UUP are more economical - sending out smaller (and multiple) teams of councillors, with and without their (at least in some places round here) controversial MP. Slugger was in Portadown with Simpson on Friday night.

The DUP candidate in Upper Bann is confident of taking the seat away from David Trimble. David Simpson's campaign manager says the reason is simple: it's all about delivery. "We have beaten him on the ground every day for the last four years. We believe we are four figures ahead". And he seems certain. "We have been out canvassing for a week longer than David Trimble. And we are sure of our core vote.".

And his reckoning appears sharp. He names three key wards he thinks the battle will be won: Waringstown, and two places called Edenderry, one in Banbridge and another in Portadown. It's here they see former hardline UU voters coming over to them. The rumour amongst workers on the UU side is they themselves are ahead by about 2-300 votes. But in practice, any estimate under a thousand is highly vulnerable to fluctuation.

The private housing in the Killicomaine Road area is prosperous and doesn't have the look of a hard-core DUP area. It's crucial for the party pull in good numbers of votes here. Most of the people coming out greet Simpson are young and upwardly mobile. Most are warm, but it's hard to gauge precisely the proportions of people responding as I continue the conversation with Simpson down the road.

Simpson dismisses the idea that a vote for his party would mark an end to any shared future. Whether by design or accident, he is Mayor of Craigavon this year and was deputy to the SDLP's Ignatius Fox this year. He's used his office to dampen down the party's old sectarian image. He was invited to speak in two Catholic schools this year, and claims to have been the first Unionist to have done so in the borough for 25 years.

In response to the belief that a 'shared future' would be finished if his "If you want an agreement and if you want one that both sections of the community can sign up to, it has to be based first of all on trust and the foundations have to be right. And that was the mistake that was made with the Belfast Agreement – they didn’t read the small print".

Although he accepts things have moved on considerably from the time of the talks about talks era of the late eighties, early nineties, and that power sharing is now the practical way forward; he won't accept that it's one of the positive fruits of David Trimble's negotiation of the Belfast Agreement.


Comments (24)

Looks like George Galloway

Posted by: George at May 1, 2005 09:13 PM


I see the bookies odds have improved considerably for UUP Basil McCrea in Lagan Valley, 3/1 from 20/1
That will keep wee Jeff awake, who knows he may dig out a flat cap for a punt himself

Posted by: tiny at May 1, 2005 11:32 PM



Its a bit strange to say, but I think that a loss for David Trimble might do the UUP some good in the long run.

It would certainly be the end of the Trimble leadership and allow the UUP to rebuild and start afresh.

Posted by: ExpatinNZ at May 2, 2005 12:07 AM


That could be the thinking of a lot of UUP voters in Upper Bann

Posted by: tiny at May 2, 2005 12:15 AM


It looks like someone very close to the wealthy Basil has put on about £5000 to bring his odds in.

But the bookies will not take bets on JD. Why, do you think?

Posted by: The Hawk at May 2, 2005 01:30 AM


tiny, I think many might agree - the problem in the UUP is that there are no obvious successors.

Posted by: beano; EverythingUlster.com at May 2, 2005 01:51 AM


Is Jeoffrey seriously close to loosing his seat?? and why does his height always have to come into it.

I would like to see Trimble loose his seat but he states that it isnt going to happen and that the UUP are likely to make some gains in this election.

Is he right???

Posted by: Roger at May 2, 2005 02:33 AM


Trimble is not right, no. He should have departed a long time ago, everybody knows it. He has now driven the party into the ground.

It is not all his fault that he is in this position, he was clearly hung out to dry by the British government as was let down time and time again by Sinn Fein. His political gamble with the good friday agreement did not work out, unfortunately.

This now means the DUP are going to enjoy sucess like they could never have imagined and the sad thing about it is that they do not deserve it one little bit. They have done nothing. They are an election machine, a party of protest, that is all. The UUP did all the work, took all the risk and have lost. The DUP sat back, did nothing but abuse the UUP and have come up trumps.

Of course the situation was made worse by the hugh rift Trimble created within the UUP. With another leader with more people skills things might have turned out differently.

I think the only obvious successor to Trimble is Sir Reg, however I don't believe he actually wants the job...

Posted by: JonnyG at May 2, 2005 03:00 AM


Mr. Donaldson is such a hot favourite the bookies aren't taking any odds on him. Basil's 3:1 is a cruel attempt by Eastwood's to lure the gullible and delusionist tendency into wasting their money!

As for Trimble, he's gone this Thursday, so that should be cause for celebration. Beano is right that there is no obvious successor, and I fear Burnside will lose in South Antrim, so there's a mightly challenge coming the way of any residual intelligence at Cunningham House.

Posted by: David Vance at May 2, 2005 09:43 AM


"Mr. Donaldson is such a hot favourite the bookies aren't taking any odds on him. Basil's 3:1 is a cruel attempt by Eastwood's to lure the gullible and delusionist tendency into wasting their money!"

No David 20/1 was the bookies cruel attempt to lure the gullible and delusional into wasting their money. given the odds have shortened looks like it worked!

Posted by: Alan Briggs at May 2, 2005 10:06 AM


"As for Trimble, he's gone this Thursday"

I seem to remember the same missplaced confidence last time David

Posted by: Tiny at May 2, 2005 11:51 AM


If after Thursday Sylvia Hermon is the only UUP MP left could she get the leadership by default?

Posted by: Moyle rover at May 2, 2005 08:52 PM


"We have beaten him on the ground every day for the last four years. We believe we are four figures ahead".

This was Quote of the Day in Daily Ireland today, which mentioned Slugger as the source.

Good to know they keep an eye on us at Teach Basil! :o)

Posted by: Gonzo at May 2, 2005 09:32 PM


Tiny,

We'll see this Thursday who calls it right in Upper Bann. Any thoughts on why Simpson is odds-on and the charming Trimble not? A DUP plot or lots of people with more money than sense? Or maybe a glimpse into what awaits when the polling booths close.....???

Posted by: David Vance at May 2, 2005 10:02 PM


I would like to see Trimble loose his seat but he states that it isnt going to happen and that the UUP are likely to make some gains in this election.

Is he right???

Who says the drugs don't work?

Posted by: Young Fogey at May 3, 2005 01:28 AM


thank god we live in ballymena, no cause for concern here over who to vote for, its big ian again time,with another big majority over some unknown the press calls mccune,the only thing that amazes the dup electors in north antrim, is the continual success of the uup leadership in finding unknown uup failures to carry the uup name in election after election, in north antrim, to be exterminated by big ian, again and again, talk about deja vu, all over again.

Posted by: pete burns ballymena. at May 3, 2005 05:37 PM


where is the uup in ballymena, i live in the town centre i have not seen any of their candidates at my door or on the streets.the same applies to the pup. alliance and the sdlp, it will be another walk over for dr Paisley and the Dup in both Westminster and Council polls here, if the opposition to the Dup challenge in the rest of N.Ireland is so weak and non existent as in this electoral area, the Dup are up for some very positively stunning results again exterminating their detractors at will, at the ballot box. its well done again big man you are a born survivor.................

Posted by: whensy b,mena at May 4, 2005 01:39 PM


Will the last person leaving Ballymena on Monday night close the gates and turn out the lights for it will have returned to the dark ages if the DUP increase their vote.

The voters should remember the ELO, the chidren's swings locked on Sundays, the bigotry and sectarianism, the sanctimonious attitude of the party that cost Ballymena its hospital - need one say more.

Posted by: vespasin at May 4, 2005 01:53 PM


Anyone who saw Trimble against Dodds et al last night could see he knows he has lost Upper Bann.

The man hadn't a care in the world, as if he wasn't even running for election. I've never seen a more resigned figure.

Posted by: George at May 4, 2005 01:58 PM


Is this the same dup who push their leaflets through the door rather than talk to the voters?
BTW were is paisley havnt seen him in ballymena at all!

Posted by: fatbob at May 4, 2005 02:20 PM


Is this the same dup who push their leaflets through the door rather than talk to the voters?

That's actually true in a lot of areas - why is that, anyone?

Posted by: IJP at May 4, 2005 10:41 PM


Please don't "shout" dup2winagainandagain.

Posted by: A.U. at May 7, 2005 11:47 PM


It's the button beside "a". Please use it.

Posted by: PS at May 8, 2005 12:13 AM


Foolish. I have asked nicely a couple of times.

Posted by: A.U. at May 8, 2005 12:14 AM



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