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Britain & Ireland
Lives Entwined
Exploring British Irish cultural relations at: www.britainandireland.org


'Deep Throat' named
It's too big a story not to note.. earlier today Vanity Fair named an ex-FBI offical W. Mark Felt as "Deep Throat" [3.28Mb pdf file via this NYTimes link], the deep background source whose contributions guided the story that led to the resignation of US President Richard Nixon over the cover-up that took place after the Watergate break-in. The Washington Post has now also reported that Bob Woodward, Carl Bernstein and then-editor Ben Bradlee have confirmed that W. Mark Felt, who was second in command at the FBI in the early 70s, was 'Deep Throat' - ending decades of speculation as to the identity of, perhaps, the most famous unnamed source ever.

Back again....
The strange comings and goings of Slugger have no doubt been as disturbing for you as they have been for me. Our bandwidth levels rose exponentially as our readership increased in the period up to and after the general election - more than 5,500 unique visitors on the day the Westminster votes were counted. We outstripped our original limits by quite a way. Touch wood, we have upgraded from 30 to 45 gig monthly bandwidth limit, which should give us enough slack for a few months at least. In the meantime, please continue to play the ball and take pleasure in playing the game!

And put a penny or two in the donation button to help us keep the service free from similar hitches in future!

DUP in cross-community power-sharing shocker...
IT went largely unnoticed that while the new DUP Lord Mayor of Belfast, Wallace Browne, was indeed elected with cross-community support, it was (I am pretty sure) the first time ever that both a Lord Mayor and Deputy Lord Mayor were elected with cross-community support. This was testing new waters for the DUP and SDLP, as they supported each other's candidate - and there were some rather nervous councillors who voted last week in a way they never had before. From the DUP's perspective, it was certainly worth the minimal risk to vote for a nationalist Deputy Lord Mayor for the first time...

What might have damaged the DUP in the past, won't now. The DUP is in a position of strength after the recent council elections, and it's only real critic could have been the UUP - who are severely weakened in City Hall.

Mayoral elections are significantly dictated by wider events. It's a fact of political life here. So I doubt if this small-but-positive DUP gesture was made for completely altruistic reasons. Nevertheless, it's a little bit of visible political progress.

As far as contenders for the Belfast mayoralty were are concerned, Sinn Fein are still in every other party's doghouse and were never really in line for the top two posts, post-Northern and McCartney. And Joe O'Donnell has just stepped down as Deputy Lord Mayor. There was no deal to exclude them. In fact, I am not aware of any deals having been made. There was no need.

As the largest party, the DUP obviously felt entitled to the top post. The party's last Lord Mayor was Sammy Wilson between 2000 and 2001.

After their electoral humiliation - losing four seats in the Dome of Delight alone - the UUP were in no position to demand (or give) anything to anyone.

How on earth could any party possibly do a deal with a party that even split down the middle on the big night, with four UUP councillors not voting for the SDLP Deputy Mayor, Pat Convery, and four voting for him? I understand that Fred Cobain was the first UUP councillor to record a positive vote for Convery, perhaps shaming the others who voted after him to take his lead.

We can probably expect more split UUP votes in the future, if Fred's conscience continues to niggle. I can't see how UPRG member Frank McCoubrey - who takes the UUP whip (and isn't Fred the group whip?) - can possibly agree with everything the UUP might do in future. No-one seems to have noticed that the UUP group in Belfast City Council is in exactly the same position as Sinn Fein on the other side of the chamber.

Dealing with a group in disarray might present other parties with a problem - since half the UUP group appears not to be taking the whip on crucial votes - but so might dealing with an official body that includes someone who provides political advice to the UDA. Even the DUP aren't on the cringeworthy Loyalist Commission*. But gone are those halcyon days of post-Agreement UUP bonhomie with others of a similar disposition. Even if the UUP say it's going to do something these days or vote a certain way, you always wonder if it can actually deliver.

Anyway, the Belfast mayoral field was narrow, and in terms of mandate and just getting a fair turn, the DUP clearly had the biggest claim.

Alliance, who hold the balance of power, announced it's kingmaking decision in advance, after holding meetings with the other parties. Coincidentally, the only other Lord Mayor elected with cross-community support previously was David Alderdice, no longer of Belfast. David was also leader of the group when Alliance voted Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey into the Lord Mayor's chair in 2002. Such rare cross-community votes always seem to revolve around Alliance.

Could it be though that the DUP has used the opportunity to its advantage?

Nationalist criticism of the DUP has centred on its inability to share power in the Assembly (and elsewhere), and there have been many calls from nationalist quarters for the DUP to demonstrate its 'powersharing credentials' in the councils across Northern Ireland.

So the DUP did. Sort of.

I mean in its own terms, of course. So Sinn Fein is still obviously out. But by voting for an SDLP Deputy Lord Mayor, they passed Durkan's democratic 'acid test' in Belfast, though possibly not in Castlereagh.

But since Alliance had the greatest claim to something (anything, quite frankly) in Castlereagh, having been the greater victim of past DUP exclusion in terms of posts, this was perhaps a sensible move by the DUP. Certainly Geraldine Rice deserved the Deputy Mayoralty in Castlereagh; Alliance has received only one other deputy mayorship in 25 years, and Sinn Fein used to quote the party's unjustifiable exclusion in Castlereagh in previous years as an example of DUP inability to share power.

So the DUP can afford to be seen to be generous - but not too generous. It puts forward a moderate (relatively speaking) candidate in Belfast. It gets a chance to show that it will share power with - and even (gasp) VOTE for - Catholics and nationalists not, in its eyes, in parties linked to armed groups. In short, it will be entering the inevitable next round of talks with a wee carrot to show Tony. Yet this is still power sharing on DUP terms - ie, to Sinn Fein's exclusion. The DUP is saying that it will share power with constitutional Irish nationalism, but not - until the IRA has shown the DUP its bona fides - with Sinn Fein. That's pretty much everyone else's position too.

One of Blair's two conditions for getting devolution back on track is that unionism must be prepared to share power. Even if the IRA doesn't jump far enough for it, the DUP will hold up these councils as examples of good faith. Maybe they'll even get a couple of sweeteners along the way; more seats on the Policing Board possibly or perhaps Andrew Hunter will get a seat in the Lords. The DUP wants more accountable direct rule, but I can't imagine much being given by Hain there, who sees it as a non-starter. Relations got off to a frosty start, as usual. Can't see Paisley having been impressed by Hain's political pedigree either.

If the DUP is to ever learn that it should stay inside the process, some reciprocation from the Government may well help bind it further into the whole shebang. As Sinn Fein have found out, it becomes harder to walk away from the table if you can visibly demonstrate symbolic or real gains. If politics is about give and take, the DUP will seek its own 'concessions', as no doubt every party does when it deals with the Government.

The DUP is 'doing' real politics these days. It's not standing outside like it used to. But how far is it prepared to compromise if the IRA's expected statement or action after its 'internal consultation' doesn't go far enough, as expected? Exactly how high is the bar - and will the two governments continue to hold it as far up as the DUP? As we revealed first on Slugger, even the US is taking a harder line on republicans right now. But how long do we have to wait for the DUP to be convinced that the IRA is inactive? Waiting games in Northern Ireland rarely continue long without the intervention of damaging events.

In the past, political vacuums have eventually given way to violence. The summer omens haven't been particularly great this year. This current hiatus has been on the cards since Christmas, but if talks are to start in the autumn, groundwork needs to be done now.

* Can we use the other thread to debate Ulster Resistance etc? Cheers.

What next for EU Constitutional Treaty?
French voters have rejected the proposed Constitutional Treaty for the EU, by what is being interpreted as a firm No.. 55% to 45%. Richard Delevan has some interesting thoughts on what happens next and suggests that the opportunity exists for a meaningful conversation [beyond the bureaucrats] on a question that the EU in Northern Ireland blog will probably be interested in - "What is the end-state of the European project?".. and, according to RTE, President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso has said that re-negotiation of the document's text was not possible.

Northern Catholic women over three times as likely to be unemployed
Catholic women in the North are three and a half times more likely to be unemployed than Protestant women, according to new British government statistics. This follows the release of "deprivation" statistics by the NISRA which show that three of the four areas of highest unemployment in the North are in mainly nationalist areas.

Local Government
District
Percentage of population living in most deprived areas in Northern Ireland by parliamentary constituency:
1 Belfast West 79%
2 Belfast North 60%
3 Foyle 46%
4 West Tyrone 31%
5 Belfast East 23%
6 Newry and Armagh 23%
7 Belfast South 19%
8 Upper Bann 18%
9 East Londonderry 13%
10 East Antrim 8%
11 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 8%
12 North Antrim 8%
13 Mid Ulster 7%
14 South Down 6%
15 South Antrim 4%
16 Lagan Valley 4%
17 Strangford 4%
18 North Down 2%

By District Council:
1 Strabane 54%
2 Belfast 48%
3 Derry 46%
4 Newry and Mourne 25%
5 Craigavon 23%
6 Limavady 17%
7 Lisburn 16%
8 Newtownabbey 13%
9 Omagh 13%
10 Moyle 13%
11 Cookstown 11%
12 Coleraine 10%
13 Ballymena 10%
14 Dungannon 9%
15 Fermanagh 9%
16 Larne 8%
17 Carrickfergus 8%
18 Armagh 7%
19 Antrim 6%
20 Down 6%
21 Castlereagh 5%
22 Ards 3%
23 North Down 3%
24 Magherafelt 1%
25 Ballymoney 1%
26 Banbridge 0%


Most deprived small areas are:
Belfast Whiterock
Belfast Shankill
Belfast Falls
Belfast Crumlin
Belfast New Lodge
Belfast Ballymacarrett
Derry Creggan Central
Belfast Upper Springfield
Belfast Ardoyne
Belfast New Lodge
Derry Brandywell
Belfast Duncairn
Belfast Woodvale
Belfast The Mount
Belfast Water Works
Derry Shantallow West
Derry Crevagh
Strabane East
Derry Strand
Belfast Glencairn

Bertie's full of "hope"..
Speaking at University College, Dublin a couple of days ago, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, seemingly ignoring history, had this to say on awaiting the result of the internal consultation of the Provisional Movement - "I hope it is positive, I hope it is conclusive and I hope there is no ambiguity about it". Hmmm.. Bertie still seems to think there will be a point when, as Seamus Heaney put it, "hope and history rhyme"..

Safest way, sarge
The DUP's Peter Robinson adopts the Corporal Nobbs approach to party politics and kicks the UUP when they're down - "Why would I concern myself with whether the Ulster Unionist Party take a reject from the Westminster election or somebody who is so unelectable that they were appointed to the House of Lords?".. Hmm.. How is that campaign for the first DUP peer coming along anyway?

DUP: no faith Sinn Fein is serious about a deal
There's an interesting article in this week's edition of The Village by Anton McCabe, which notes the change in tone of the DUP's stance in the run up to the failed 'comprehensive agreement' and the harder public stance now. He quotes a DUP spokesman on their reasons for the change in the wake of that failure:
Subsequently it became clear that while negotiations were onging between Republicans and the two governments the Northern Bank robbery was being planned. Consequently there is no faith that Sinn Fein/IRA are serious about ending terrorist and criminal activity. There is no evidence that Sinn Fein is moving anytime soo to disband the IRA and enter the political arena on the same basis as democratic parties.

NI banks to be forced into competitive change
In an apparent culmination of an issue that's been ongoing for some time, the big four banks in Northern Ireland are to face a probe by the Competition Commission. This is not a trivial action. Eleanor Gill, chief executive of the Consumer Council: "A referral to the Competition Commission is the most serious action that the OFT can take against the banks. Clearly unwilling to change voluntarily, the big four will now be forced to change." Thanks to Tim for the heads up!

Apologies for our enforced hiatus..
I'm sorry for the outage on Slugger from Thursday night until last night. It seems to have been a misunderstanding between us and our US server hosts. The advantage of hosting the site in the states is cost and quality of customer service. Th obvious problem is that when the site goes down in the day time over here, it can take a while to get their customer service to act. The problem was that last month we thought we'd upgraded to cope with the increase in traffic, but their billing department seems not to have been notified.

Interview with Peter Hain tonight!
Hearts and Minds tonight has an interview with the new Secretary of State (and former anti apartheid agitator Peter Hain - and it seems he's still upbeat! There's a short film piece on the relationship between the DUP and the Free Presbyterian Church, which asks who rules the roost? And was this month's election result a victory for the extremes, or a cry for help from an alienated electorate?

Devolution is the name of the game...
Tom Griffin of the London-based Irish World looks at the current state of devolved politics in Britain and Northern Ireland and argues that " Today, devolution is the only real integration, because ironically, Britain itself is becoming more nationalist and less unionist"

Devolution is the only real integration now
by Tom Griffin, 27 May 2005 edition
 
Do unionists want Northern Ireland to be run from Westminster or from Stormont? The choice between devolution or integration is an old dilemma.
In the early 1970s the fall of Stormont and its replacement by direct rule was seen as a victory by many nationalists. In the 1980s, many unionists felt that strengthening the link with Britain meant being playing a fuller part at Westminster.
In the 1990s, the pendulum swung again and the return of Stormont became the prize for unionism in the Good Friday Agreement.
Now, there are signs that unionists are looking to integration once more. The DUP is calling for a more accountable direct rule, and the defeated Ulster Unionists are considering a closer relationship with the Conservative Party.
These developments, are however, in many ways at odds with what is happening in Britain itself, where devolution is if anything deepening.
The extent to which Northern Ireland is out of step is demonstrated by the fact that Secretary of State Peter Hain will supervise the extension of new powers to the Welsh Assembly, at the same time as he presides over direct rule in Belfast.
However, the most interesting straw in the wind is what is happening in that quintessential British institution, the Conservative Party.
Just as that moment the UUP is considering moving closer to the Conservatives, Tories in England and Scotland are beginning to move further apart.
Michael Howard was forced to sack his new shadow Scottish Secretary James Grey last week. Scottish Tories demanded his head after he called for the abolition of the Scottish Parliament.
His call reflected the fact that the current devolution settlement is biased against the Tories. They won the popular vote in England, but Labour’s majority over them is inflated by Scottish MPs who can vote on English issues that do not affect their constituents.   
What the James Grey affair underlines, is that the Conservatives cannot overcome this disadvantage by seeking the end of the Scottish Parliament. Their only realistic option is to seek similar treatment for England.
The Tories are already committed to a form of English devolution, through a somewhat incoherent proposal that only English MPs should vote on English matters at Westminster.
The favourite to succeed Michael Howard, shadow Home Secretary David Davis, has talked in the past of going for a fully fledged English Parliament.
This has obvious advantages for English Tories, who would have a good chance of power in such an institution.
However, it also enjoys support from a faction among Scottish Tories who believe that they suffer electorally from being seen as not Scottish enough. They want to break away from the English Party altogether, in order to forge a separate identity.
There has even been a report in the Scotsman that senior Scottish Tories want to drop the word ‘unionist’ from the title ‘Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party’, in order to appeal to nationalist-minded Scottish voters.
Indeed, in Scotland as in England, the Tories are beginning to realise that it is in their interest to be more radically devolutionist than Labour.
The logic is compelling. The current Scottish Parliament controls public spending on areas like health and education. However, tax-raising powers remain with Westminster. There is a clear incentive for Scottish voters to back Labour at Holyrood and guarantee higher spending without the risk of higher taxes.
This will only change if Scotland gains fiscal independence, and has to fund its own spending out of its own revenues, which is exactly what some Tory members of the Scottish Parliament are now advocating.
Of course, part of the reason these issues have come into focus is because the Tories are still so far from regaining power at Westminster. However, the election has also weakened Labour’s ability to sustain a settlement which is so obviously biased in its favour.
Change can only really move in one direction, towards deeper and more consistent devolution. This is bound to have implications for Northern Ireland.
The arrival of ‘home rule all round’ in 1997 contributed to the political imperative that led to the Good Friday Agreement. If England and Scotland gain more autonomy, the pressure on Northern Ireland to move out of its current state of political dependency will grow accordingly.
Today, devolution is the only real integration, because ironically, Britain itself is becoming more nationalist and less unionist.

Titantic to beef NI's tourist offering?
Despite a huge increase in the inbound traffic from Britain, Northern Ireland Tourist Board chief executive Alan Clarke believes that more needs to be done.

One suggestion is to emphasise the Titantic's Belfast origin:

2012 offers a convenient target to aim for. That marks the centenary of the Titanic being launched from Belfast for its brief career as the world's most famous ocean liner before being sunk on its maiden voyage by an iceberg. Eager to cash in on the box office success of the Titanic film, plans are now afoot to develop a visitor centre in the docks where the doomed liner was built.

In a surreal celebration of Belfast's industrial heritage, artist Rita Duffy is planning in 2008 to tow an iceberg from north of Norway into Belfast. She believes the iceberg would represent a dramatic piece of "performance art" as it slowly melted in Belfast Lough.

Unionists walk out on d'Hondt
Unionist councillors walked out after Limavady Council officially adopted the d'Hondt mechanism for choosing who sits in the senior offices year on year.

A year's delay after IRA move?
Brian Feeney reckons that whatever happens, the DUP will not be going into power with Sinn Fein until a good year after the expected statement from the IRA accepting Adams' initiative outlining a politics only way forward to the whole Republican movement. He also points out that whatever Republicans make of the IMC (even the DUP was lukewarm on it at the time of it's establishment), they will have to get through a year of positive reporting before anything moves.

Afraid to put their case?
Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou McDonald has accused Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael of running away from debate on the proposed European Constitution by failing to provide speakers for a conference. (conference details attached) Usually impeccable sources tell me that the conference minus FF and FG may be blogged live by a Slugger regular.

16 Speakers from across the EU examine content and implications of EU Constitution

Sinn Féin and our partners in the European Parliament, European United Left/Nordic Green Left, are holding a 2 day conference this weekend on the EU Constitution. The event brings together 16 speakers from across the EU including MEPs, NGOs, trade unionists and academics.

The event is free and open to the public.
Ireland & the EU Constitution
Irish Film Centre, Eustace St, Dublin
Date: 28th & 29th May

Saturday 28th

Registration: 9am

Session 1: 9.30: Whats new in the EU Constitution?
A table of academics look at the new elements of the Constitution
Steve McGiffen
Gerard McCann
Ailbhe Smyth

Session 2: 10.45: MEPs platform
Three MEPs make the case against the Constitution
Bairbre de Brun – Sinn Fein (GUE/NGL)
Esko Sepannen – Left Alliance Finland (GUE/NGL)
Bernat Joan – Left Republicans Catalonia (Greens/EFA)

Session 3: 12.30: For & Against the Constitution
A key note debate between two prominent MEPs each arguing opposing sides of the Constitution debate.
Speakers to be confirmed

Sunday 29th

Session 1: 10.45: Civil Society Against the Constitution
A platform of NGOs outline the case against the Constitution
Trade Unionists Against the Constitution (England)
Matthew McGregor: Centre for a Social Europe (England)
Roger Cole: Peace & Neutrality Alliance (Ireland)
Lilian Halls-French - European Feminist Initiative Against the Constitution
Claudio Meloni: Attac (Italy)

Sesion 2: 12.30: Another Europe is Possible
A panel of MEPs and commentators looking beyond the EU Constitution
Aengus O’Sondaigh TD Sinn Féin
Jonas Sjostedt MEP – Swedish Left Party (GUE/NGL)
Deirdre de Burca – Green Party (Ireland)

Northern Ireland stands firm
European football's governing body, UEFA, has commended the Irish Football Association (IFA) in Northern Ireland, pointing to it as "a fine example of the work being undertaken" by national associations to eliminate racism, discrimination and intolerance from football.

Champions League kickoff approaches
A thread in deference to all those who want to vent their spleen on whether Liverpool beat AC Milan or not in the Champions League final in Istanbul tonight and who don't have the cúpla focal.

Although the furthest thing from a Liverpool fan, Rafael Benitez is a top man in my view, especially for humbling Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho with his tactical nous in the semi-finals, so I'll not be too upset if the Reds claim a fifth European Champions trophy. So far, everyone is well behaved in Istanbul and there's a party atmosphere.

O'Neill quits as manager of Celtic
Martin O'Neill will quit as manager of Celtic for personal reasons after this weekend's Scottish Cup final against Dundee United. I think it's safe to say O'Neill is a person who by his actions and achievements as a player and manager has won the respect of virtually everyone on these islands, regardless of background, and our thoughts go to his wife Geraldine, who is battling cancer.

AC Milan chun an corn a thógáil?
Ní me abalta an cluiche mór stairiúil a fheiceal anocht, mar beidh me ag eitilt ar ais go mBeal Feirste. Imríodh Learpholl agus AC Milan a chéile den chéad uair i gcomórtas Eorpach. Creideann Lá go mbeadh Milan na favorites chun an corn a thógáil. Ach beidh suil mór ag a lan daoine i bhfud an Bhreatain agus Éireann, nach mbeidh sin an cas.

Laird attacks Bertie in Lords
Tha Dail and the Senaid played host to some of the most gripping drama of the post Northern Bank raid period. Now the drama shifts to London and the House of Lords, where John Laird has been drawing attention to the silence of Bertie Ahern after his close association with Phil Flynn was became public in the wake of the robbery. More on the Broom of Anger

DUP success built on disillusion with process
Chris Gilligan points out that the continuing success of the DUP does not represent a hardening of Protestant attitudes towards Catholics, so much as disillusion with the apparently endless peace process. He points out that: "If expecting the IRA to disarm before Sinn Fein can be considered a democratic party is an extremist position, then many of those who voted 'Yes' in the referendum on the 1998 peace agreement are extremists".

Blair: inclusion is impossible without end to crime
According to PA Tony Blair speaking in parliament today said: "Inclusiveness was a "far better" way forward, but not possible without an end to all criminal activity."

Tragedy may see action on school bus seatbelts
Síle De Valera, a junior minister at the Irish Department of Education, has said the Government aims to phase in school buses fitted with seatbelts.

The move follows the horrific crash in Meath, which left five schoolgirls dead and scores injured.

The estimated cost of the move is put at 100 million euros while in Northern Ireland, where children also travel on buses without seatbelts, the cost was put at 50 million sterling by a Environment Committee report in 2002.

Meanwhile, UK Transport Minister Stephen Ladyman said the British Government would learn the lessons from the worst school vehicle crash in Irish history.

DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson has already called for seatbelts to be fitted to all school buses in the UK.

Will the prohibitive cost of the move lead to its delayed implemenation in both jurisdictions and where will Northern Ireland source the money to upgrade its fleet when deep cuts are already being imposed on the education boards?

Inquiries get under way
Several of the inquiries recommended by Canadian judge Peter Cory have already got underway. The team investigating the circumstances of the killing of Robert Hammill has already visited the murder scene in Portadown. And in the Republic a second inquest has been ordered into the death of Co Louth man Seamus Ludlow.

Sinn Féin accuse eBay of "censorship"
As Mick noted yesterday, Sinn Féin were attempting to sell "part of a British MI5 bugging device" on eBay - coinciding with the publication of the IMC Report. Da Broom has a record of the item as listed with photos. As the Broom also noted later, eBay has now removed the item from their site. In response SF has re-started the auction at their own site and Mitchel McLaughlin has taken the time-worn route of accusing eBay of a "clumsy effort at censorship"... It is not known whether eBay will respond by accusing Sinn Féin of a clumsy attempt at propaganda.. Update The BBC report that eBay have stated that the item was removed "because it contravened clauses 6.2 and 9 of the eBay users agreement".

An open letter to the IRA from the Green Party
As if to prove it's not simply a one issue party, the Greens have just sent us this open address to the IRA at a time when it is reputed to be holding a historic internal consultation on Gerry Adams' proposal that it consider a solely political route as the only viable way forward. They've even (helpfully) attached their own suggested wording for a future IRA statement.

From the Green Party:

An Open Letter to P. O'Neill

The world waits with bated breath for the IRA Statement, the response to Gerry Adams' Question. We are told that a thoroughgoing, historic debate is going on in the Provisional movement, and an Answer to Mr. Adam's Question is being formulated. Having requested such a debate in advance of Mr Adams’ proposal, the Green Party welcomes these recent developments.

The Green Party, a political party founded on the principles of nonviolence, democracy and social justice, with elected representatives, North and South in Ireland, sees itself as being uniquely qualified and positioned to intervene in the process of reconciliation in this island. We are the only party that enjoys the support of people from all traditions.

Rather than await the outcome of republican deliberations, we have decided to pre-empt the process and offer a possible draft for your consideration

The consequences of the campaign of violence have left deep hurts in the people of Ireland which will take decades to heal. A generation of young people has grown up with scant respect for laws of God or man. We believe that the British/Irish context in which the trauma of Ulster has unfolded must be laid fairly and squarely at the door of the British political establishment and its relationship with the people of this island, a relationship which is fundamental to the ‘Agreement’. That is where historical responsibility ultimately lies, but the fate and well being of over a million Protestant Unionist people must be protected and safeguarded, whatever the historical realities dictate.

We in the Green Party are of the view that the campaign of violence, notwithstanding the ominous nature of predatory loyalism was profoundly mistaken and contrary to the principles of true republicanism. There may be arguments to justify the actions of the United Irishmen in the late 18th century, but those arguments don't hold in the late 20th century

So Mr. O'Neill, as you prepare to make your exit permanently from the political stage of these islands, we invite you to study our statement. Feel free to adopt it verbatim, but above all, end the uncertainty of the peoples of Ireland, vacate the stage, leave Ireland to heal itself and go heal thyself of your arrogance in the process.

I.R.A. Statement

The IRA has been engaged in a War of Liberation for thirty-five years. The purpose of the war has been to expel Britain from the occupied Six Counties of Ireland, a legacy of the wholly unjust settlement imposed on the people of Ireland in 1920. The gerrymandered nature of that imposed settlement resulted in the six most Protestant/Unionist counties forming Northern Ireland, with a permanently inbuilt Unionist majority. Thus was imposed on nationalist people an undemocratic arrangement destined never to yield a nationalist majority for perhaps hundreds of years.

The nationalist people lived in the shadow of the Unionist monolith for fifty years until the events of the 1960's occurred. It was obvious to many republicans that justice for them was not on offer when the State mask slipped and the Civil Rights movement was ruthlessly suppressed, culminating in Bloody Sunday.

The campaign of violence of the last thirty-five years has regretfully led to thousands of deaths and many individual atrocities shameful to those who participated in them. The IRA came reluctantly to the view that its aims could not be realised by violence and opted for a ceasefIre in 1994, by which time the political wing of republicanism had gained the trust and backing of a large part of the nationalist population of Ireland. In the intervening years certain elements of militant republicanism have opted for engagement in criminal behaviour, much of it against the rulings of the IRA Army Council.

We believe the time has now come for the Provisional IRA to disband forthwith. The ideal of a united Ireland still remains the goal of the republican (in its widest definition) people of Ireland. However, we acknowledge that the Principle of Consent is central to the Good Friday Agreement and that, notwithstanding the intrinsically undemocratic nature of the state of Northern Ireland, we henceforth commit ourselves to the peaceful pursuit of our political aspiration - the Unification of Ireland.

We therefore commit ourselves to a complete and total decommissioning of all our arsenals. These events will be witnessed by agreed representatives of the major churches, and General De Chastelain's staff, and photographic records will be taken as proof that decommissioning has taken place.

Our opponents, North and South, will ask how they can be sure that all arms dumps have been included in the decommissioning exercise. If at any time in the future, we are found to have reneged on our word oo total decommissioning, we appreciate that this will be a matter for historians and will redoubt to our dishonour.

We have been accused of drafting a document which will satisfy London and Dublin, but not the D.U.P. A fair reading of this statement will satisfy all people of goodwill that the IRA has chosen to vacate the stage, to let the destiny of Ireland be decided freely by the peoples of Ireland. When we speak of the peoples of Ireland, we mean all the people of Ireland. When Mr. Paisley speaks of the people of Ulster he does not mean, or speak for all the people of Ulster: thus is exposed the intellectually incoherent position of the Unionist leadership. The European wars of religion will be finally over with the peaceful unification of Ireland. The four hundred year old conflict of Ulster will be ended with the Protestant people of Ulster playing their part in the governance of Ireland. This may be some time away in the future, but it is the IRA's view that it can only happen without the threat of coercion hanging over the Unionist people.

The IRA recommends that Sinn Fein takes its place on the Police Board forthwith. The way to restore good authority in this part of Ireland is to support a police service and end all forms of punishment beatings, vigilantism and community militias (nationalist and loyalist).

To summarize, lest there be any misunderstanding about our motives or objectives and to ensure the swift reestablishment of Assembly and other institutions established under the ‘Agreement’, we undertake to expedite the following measures:

1. A total and complete disarmament of all weapons, verified by agreed representatives.

2. A winding up of the IRA as a paramilitary organisation.

3. We reserve the right to honourably exist as an Old Comrades' network.

4. All call on all those who would use the republican ‘flag of convenience’ to engage in criminal activity, such as money laundering, bank robbing, drug trafficking, fuel smuggling, cigarette smuggling, to desist forthwith.

5. The Army Council of Oglaigh na hEireann will no longer exist.

6. All recruitment and training of volunteers will be discontinued.

7. All the above will come into effect as of the end of this month.

God Save Ireland


New Statesman New Media Awards...
The New Statesman is looking for nominations for its New Media Awards again this year. I've not got around to nominating Slugger, partly on the basis that if it won an Award last year, then it's unlikely to get shortlisted this year. However, you may have other thoughts - feel free to nominate us and let them know why we might deserve it second time around! There's a list of other nominees here.

Report shows that education standards in NI slipping...
A report from the chief Inspector of Education and Training Inspectorate shows that there is an unacceptable gap between low and high achievers. Are NI youth being failed by the system???

School 'failing youth of Northern Ireland'

Agencies
Tuesday May 24, 2005

Too many young people in Northern Ireland are leaving school without qualifications, according to a report published today.

In her second report on education in Northern Ireland, Marion Matchett, the chief inspector of the Education and Training Inspectorate, said: "The gap between those achieving the highest and lowest levels of attainment is unacceptably wide, even while taking into account the circumstances occasioned by adverse social and other environmental factors."

She said disadvantage had to be tackled through more effective management and better targeted teaching.

Many young people in Northern Ireland entered further education and vocational training with significant literacy and numeracy problems, Ms Matchett said. As a consequence, they often failed to finish courses and their employment prospects were much reduced.

Ms Matchett said a multi-agency approach was needed to help schools to support, motivate and retain disaffected young people.

"Schools cannot do everything on their own; they need the support of many agencies. Experience from inspection shows that uncoordinated and poorly managed support can be more disruptive than helpful," she said.

Nonetheless, she said, there had been evidence from the past two years to show that some schools had benefited considerably from a multi-agency approach to disadvantage.

There were parts of Northern Ireland characterised by extreme social disadvantage and related low levels of attainment, where there was a lack of conviction that education and training, on their own, could help young people to progress, she said.

"Low- and under-achievement, particularly among young males, and the need to ensure that all school leavers and young people are numerate and literate, are major challenges for those involved in education and training, particularly - but not only - in these areas," she said.

Launching her report before an audience of representatives from the education, training and youth sectors, Ms Matchett said: "We need to move beyond thinking of education as successful insofar as it helps young people do well in exams, and we need to explore further how education can help motivate young people to contribute positively to their communities."

There was also a need to develop a greater trust in education and training as ways of helping young people to overcome disadvantage.

"Having trust on all sides means that we are working together for the best outcomes for the young person," she said.

IMC asks questions of the IRA
What's striking about the IMC's list of IRA criminality is how short it is compared to the speculation of its real extent. The bank robbery is there, and the McCartney murder (with the usual caveats). But after that the list is comparatively modest. It only lists one arson attack, five shootings and six assaults since August 2004.

Considering the IRA is still denying the robbery (despite a popular belief both inside and outside Republican areas that it did carry it out), it's hard to know what to make of it. Other than to say these guys are being very careful not to run ahead of themselves.

It goes on to address Gerry Adams almost directly:

"How does Sinn Fein now view the claim made by PIRA (the Provisional IRA) to be the lawful government and representative of the people of Ireland, north and south?

"Does the party seek power in Ireland, north and south, using paramilitary muscle to back its participation in the political process?

"Does it ultimately intend to participate fully in democratic politics, and to observe all the standards that requires, but to reach that position maintaining for the time being some form of slimmed-down military capability?

"Or is it now ready to ensure that PIRA ends all forms of illegal activity and to engage wholeheartedly in democratic politics and in policing?

"In his statement of April 6, as president of Sinn Fein, Gerry Adams indicated views related to some of the considerations we have raised earlier in this section and if he is able to develop this and to deliver as he seems to have suggested, he will have demonstrated leadership of a high order."

IMC: integrity of Loyalist ceasefires under doubt
The IMC is unambiguous about the role of Loyalist paramilitaries over the last few months. The UVF, considered to be most restrained of the three main organisations it describes as: "The UVF is active, violent and ruthless and is prepared to use violence to promote what it sees as the interests of the organisation". It has recommended that sanctions be triggered against the political party most closely associated with it, the PUP.

IMC: IRA put its members ahead of justice...
Though the media hysteria over the murder of Robert McCartney has cooled since St Patrick's day, the issue hasn't gone away. And as Dan McGinn reports, it's not going to go away anytime soon. The IMC report accepts that it was not a planned operation, but hints that some of those involved may have believed they were acting under the direction of a senior IRA man:

"After the event there was prompt PIRA intervention to protect its members and to obstruct the investigation, including by cleaning up the scene and by the intimidation of witnesses. By their immediate and subsequent interventions, PIRA put the organisation and its members ahead of justice."

Time for Sinn Fein to spend political capital...
Tom Kelly thinks the SDLP is in danger of taking imprudent risks with its renewed mandate from the Westminster and local elections. Rather, he argues, the party should resist the temptation to get drawn back into a pan-nationalist alliance, in which its main partner previously flourished and it nearly perished. Rather, it is time to let Sinn Fein to do the heavy lifting required to seal a new democratic deal.

Punishment attacks continue...
Interesting piece from Gemma Murray at the Newsletter on the continuence of punishment beatings in Loyalist areas around Belfast, where the state's justice system seems to have been supplanted by summary punishment by unappointed paramilitaries. According to one unnamed, Republicans continued to exile 'young offenders' during the election campaign. In defence of this approach some say that it is a case of communities defending themselves against certain individuals. But as Chris McGimpsey hinted during the election, in the absence of any reliable form of due process, it is hard to discern where community begins and individual ends.

Clinton: next big move is the IRA's...
When Bill Clinton spoke at a big charity bash in Dublin last night, he said he hoped Ian Paisley was wrong when he said the Belfast Agreement was dead. However he did agree with the DUP leader on the need for the IRA to act: "If they were to give up their arms and criminality I think it would put a lot of pressure on Mr Paisley and others."

Independent Monitoring Commssion report published
The fifth report of the Independent Monitoring Commssion has been published and is available here. Updated again

In a detailed and wide-ranging report on all the paramilitary groups and their activities the IMC, as had been indicated, state that -

PIRA continues to seek to maintain its medium term effectiveness. It recruits and trains new members, including in the use of firearms and explosives. It continues to gather intelligence.

And in it's conclusions the report notes -

– In view of the judicial review proceedings in the Northern Ireland courts, and bearing in mind the judgment, it is timely to restate that the role of the IMC stems from the International Agreement and its embodiment in the law of the UK and of Ireland, and that the enactment of these laws by the respective Parliaments gives full democratic legitimacy to that role.

Paramilitary groups continue to be active in violent and other crime and none have materially wound down their capability to commit violent or other crime. It continues to be the case that dissident republican groups are the most committed to continuing terrorism.

– We dislike the use of the word “punishment” in connection with the vicious assaults and shootings which paramilitary groups inflict on their victims, and believe that the time has come to stop giving it currency, though we recognise the obligation of the media to report accurately those public figures who themselves use the term.

– For the most part the downward trend in paramilitary violence has continued though the number of paramilitary murders was comparable to that in the previous two six month periods. Loyalist groups remain responsible for more violence than republican ones.

There is no sign that paramilitary groups have reduced their use of exiling, and none we have found that they are agreeing to the general return of those they have exiled or that they are considering doing so.

– While we know that ex-prisoners have been amongst those who work to promote peace and to develop communities, there are indications that a considerable proportion of the prisoners released under the terms of the Belfast Agreement have re-engaged in paramilitary activities or have become involved in organised crime, or both.

– We remain concerned by the extent and nature of the involvement of paramilitary groups in organised crime and are struck by the range of criminal activities of some groups.

We do not believe that the control and licensing regimes which apply to licensed premises, security firms or taxis sufficiently reflect multi-agency thinking or face the challenge of paramilitary involvement in business of this kind. We think they should do so, as one means of bearing down on paramilitary groups in all possible ways.

– We note the establishment in due course of the Serious and Organised Crime Agency in the UK and will follow its contribution.

– We welcome the amendments made to the law and guidelines on the Assets Recovery Agency in Northern Ireland and the law relating to the Criminal Assets Bureau in the South and continue to emphasise the importance of assets recovery in both jurisdictions in combating paramilitary organised crime.


[Emphasis added]

IMC will report IRA is still recruiting..
Chris Thornton has a short preview of the contents of the next IMC report due to be released in Dublin and London today. It claims "the IRA has been continuing to train and recruit". Bertie Ahern also claimed that the "crossover into criminal activity" has continued.

Quote of the day...
From the BBC Magazine today:
"Stuttering, meandering and generally pointless speeches go down well with us old boys"
Veteran MP Nigel Evans on advice to new members

Sinn Fein selling off 'bug parts' on eBay!
Looks like Sinn Fein's come up with a novel way of plugging the various funding gaps that have opened up in the wake of the Northern Bank robbery. They're selling off (part of) the spying device they found at their headquarters on the Falls Road a while back. Interest has been brisk. It's been on sale for only a short time and they've received 37 bids. Although at US $760.00 the reserve has not yet been met!

Update: The Broom beat us to it, and has a lovely big photograph that shows off the para-carpentry involved in placing it.

Minister sells up...
MILLIONAIRE minister Sean Woodward is selling one of his homes, according to a column in the Sun. According to The Whip, Sarsden House in Oxfordshire is on the market for a cool £25 million. It comes with a 459 acre estate, features a lake, clocl tower, stables and 11 farmhouses and cottages. Perhaps he's considering buying a house more locally - which would be unusual for an NIO minister, as they usually spend less time here than they do on holidays.

Quotes of the Day...
"We are the best-behaved supporters in the land." - a Linfield supporter who either has a mischievous sense of humour or missed this recent game/riot. "There was no great panic because we had an Ann Summers night on for the women and some of them thought it was part of the craic." - A spokesman for Jackie Mullin's bar in Derry, following a suspected Real IRA shooting incident in the pub on Sunday.

Top 10 intellectual movements of the 21st Century...?
An interesting tongue-in-cheek article on the top 10 intellectual movemennts of the 21st century.... do people agree or are there any other ones on the radar screen that should also be added??

Hate and homophobia up - burglaries down
The latest PSNI crime figures show a drop in overall crime in Northern Ireland by nearly eight per cent. Burglaries, for example, are down 18 per cent but hate crimes have jumped from 226 reported incidents two years ago to 813 now, a jump of 79.5% in the last year alone.

Homophobic incidents show an even more worrying rise, jumping from 35 reported incidents two years ago to 196 now, a jump of 176.1% in the last year.

Other figures of interest are the 23.8 per cent rise in domestic incidents to over 20,000, that loyalist attacks made up over 80% of the 93 paramilitary style shootings in the last year and the number of incendiary devices used, a favourite of dissident republicans, has rocketed from 3 to 36.

From Dingle to An Daingean
David McKittrick reports in today's Independent about the plan to rename Dingle 'An Daingean'. This has met with quite a lot of local protest - mainly for practical (tourist/familiarity) reasons. Interesting to note that the minister reponsible for implementing the change is Eamon O Cuiv - De Valera's grandson...

A hard time to launch any newspaper..
Considering the problems that Daily Ireland (and more drastically Daily View) have faced, Malachi O'Doherty believes that any newspaper launching at this time in the Northern Irish news cycle would have had a hard time of it. And it's not just Northern Ireland. Peter Preston writing in the The Observer yesterday reckons that mainstream media outlets are in danger of missing out to the bloggers in terms of narrating the big events of our time. In the process they also be losing missing a powerful position viz and viz gathering growing online revenues.

Laird to speak at cross border conference
John Laird is planning to shake things up at a forthcoming conference on the functioning of the cross border bodies at UCD - one of the few institutions that were set up under the Belfast Agreement that are still working. Laird is a particularly strident campaigner on Ulster Scots issues.

Blair must confront IRA's unwillingness, not the DUP
Alex Kane argues that Blair's passivity in dealing with the question of the IRA's continuing reluctance to demobilise is becoming a serious hinderence to arriving at and execution of a comprehensive agreement, which would allow Northern Ireland to return to the business of democratic decision making.

By Alex Kane

Speaking at his first major press conference since the election, Mr. Blair said this; "I have got to work with the outcome the electorate has given…I hope that the DUP are prepared to share power, provided there is a clear, unequivocal and complete giving up of violence. If there isn't, I will be left in the same position again".

And what position is that, Mr. Blair? A continuing reluctance to face down the IRA? An ongoing failure to call Sinn Fein's bluff and shore up democracy in Northern Ireland? Even as I write, I am sure that the Prime Minister's staff are preparing a bucket of whitewash to accompany the latest report from the IMC; a report which is likely to confirm that the IRA is still recruiting and showing no signs of its willingness to disband and disappear. You don't have to be in the "same position again", Mr. Blair. You choose to be in that position, because you have always put self-perpetuating defeatism ahead of moral integrity and political courage.

And it is precisely because the Prime Minister has made that choice that the DUP will find itself with precisely the same problems as the UUP. Yes, it may well have established itself at the top of the electoral tree, but it doesn’t actually have the ability, by itself, to deliver a single manifesto pledge. Like David Trimble before him, Ian Paisley is the hapless hostage of the wimpish occupant of 10 Downing Street. Putting it bluntly, if the Prime Minister doesn’t deliver for the DUP, then the DUP cannot deliver for the unionist electorate.

It has been the same story since at least 1972, when it became clear that the size of the unionist vote meant nothing to successive governments and Prime Ministers. Which may explain why unionist turnout has continued to crumble. Last week’s unionist tally was almost 100,000 down on the 1974 general election, indeed, it was the lowest vote for decades. And bearing in mind that both the overall population and electoral register have grown over the past thirty years, the number of non- voting unionists is considerably higher than 100,000.

Anyway, it looks like we face a long period of stalemate. The DUP won’t budge until it has concrete and demonstrable movement from the IRA. The party got its fingers burnt last December and will be reluctant to repeat the experience. Also, the DUP has to calculate if the bulk of its increased mandate is really anti power-sharing with Sinn Fein under any circumstances; for if that is the case, then it would be unwise to risk the loss of votes in search of a deal which would require new concessions.

The SDLP, which only managed to survive by the skin of its teeth, has returned to the holier-than-thou high ground, and, as I predicted before the election, has ruled out any form of voluntary coalition. Meanwhile, Gerry Adams is conducting a dialogue with a mirror, and, in a surreal ventriloquial act, is playing democratic dummy to his own balaclava’d hard man. He may be trying to put clear green, white and gold water between himself and P. O'Neill, but too many unionists will still detect the shadow of the gunman hovering over the political process.

As ever, on these occasions, Bertie Ahern can be relied upon to help Sinn Fein. Hence his comments a few days ago that he believes that Mr. Adams’ consultation exercise is a genuine one. What has become apparent over the past eighteen months (and I suspect that it was Ahern’s reaction to the post- November 2003 growth of the DUP), is that Justice Minister, Michael McDowell, is being deployed as an “Uncle Tom” sop to unionism, while the Taoiseach gets on with the usual nods and winks to Adams and the IRA. As ever, though, when push comes to shove, the Irish government will ultimately side with Sinn Fein.

Little prospect, then, of any deal in the near future. The opportunity for such a deal was there six months ago, and it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the DUP was up for it at the time. But circumstances have changed. The IRA hasn’t, though, and that is the problem. And I don’t see the IRA changing, let alone changing enough to satisfy the DUP. Mr. Blair will put enormous pressure on Dr. Paisley and he may even offer him a fresh Assembly election, but I just don't see the DUP shifting from where it is now.

Neither the DUP nor the IRA is going to pay the necessary price for the restoration of the Assembly. But neither of them is keen for Direct Rule to last too long; the DUP fearing that it will lead to British/Irish rule, and the IRA fearing that it will entrench British rule only. Both are now looking for a Plan B and I suspect that the next crucial battleground will be local government reform and devolution to smaller and more powerful councils.

First published in the Newsletter on Saturday 21st May 2005.

30 years of Inside Politics...
Strange that the BBC Current Affairs output has dried up today - the staff are on a one day strike. But just beforehand Mark Devenport penned this review of almost thirty years of Inside Politics (sound file).

Where are all the Christians?
Newton Emerson (who is not a Christian) wonders what effects good Christian people might have if they took direct action rather than relying on the power prayer alone in a conflict that is at least marked by the trappings of religion.

End of Happy Hour?
The British Beer and Pub Association has decided that happy hours are to be banned in the nearly 30,000 drinking establishments run by its members in an effort to curb binge drinking. The NI Drinks Industry Group introduced its code of practise last month although happy hours weren't specifically targetted while Irish Justice Minister Michael McDowell banned happy hours back in 2003. Should the UK follow the Irish Republic and ban drinks promotions or is a voluntary code sufficient?

Celtic hand Rangers the Premiership..
It's got to be the turn round of the football season. Celtic who led Rangers for most of the season, lost concentration in the last minute at Motherwell who scored two and let Rangers in at the death to take the Championship. Riots ensued in North Belfast. The DUP blamed Nationalists and Sinn Fein blamed the police.

Quote of the week..
From a review/interview of Colonel Tim Collins's book Rules of Engagement. On where his stirring eve of battle speech in Iraq came from:
Come the time, come the moment. How do Irish heroes find the words on the gallows steps? They just come to you.

Ahern mustn't fall for the old 'SF/Blair' trick...
Eoghan Harris believes Bertie Ahern should be wary of being forced into positions in the upcoming round of negotiations that compromise the health and security of the Republic by the personal ambitions of Blair and Adams.

He believes the British hae been working first hand with Adams on this project for some time:

As David Trimble's biographer, Dean Godson, points out, "as far back as 1972 British intelligence thought Adams had potential". And they were right. Adams had the potential to abort an armed struggle aimed at the British mainland and morph it into a political-cum-criminal conspiracy aimed at the Irish Republic.

The story goes that in the talks before Christmas, when Dublin diplomats demurred that the deal might not dispose of the IRA's mafia intentions in the Irish Republic, they were roundly rebuffed by Blair's Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, who told them that Sicily had to deal with a mafia, too.

The Powell story may be apocryphal but it accurately catches the amoral mind-set of the Blair government's slumming with Sinn Fein for the past ten years. This slumming is chronicled by the transcripts of tapped phone conversations between British officials and Sinn Fein in Liam Clarke's and Kathryn Johnston's biography, Martin McGuinness: From Guns to Government.

Any armchair republicans among my readers who are still taken in by Adams's attacks on so-called "securocrats" should consider the cosy relationship between Sinn Fein and the Blair government revealed by the exchange of July 18, 1999, when Dr Mo Mowlam, former Northern Ireland Secretary, calls Mr McGuinness "babe". Hardly the language of someone likely to lock Martin up.

But a lot more bothersome is the conversation between Blair's Chief of staff, Mr Jonathan Powell, and Martin McGuinness two days earlier, on July 16, where Mr Powell appears to agree to Mr McGuinness's demand for Downing Street to form an executive with or without unionists, or as the Sinn Fein MP puts it, for London and Dublin "to think about moving on over their heads".

Cover up 30 years after...
Suzanne Breen investigates an alleged cover up which has drawn silence from most of the Republic's top politicians, except the Justice Minister Michael McDowell. When Dundalk man Seamus Ludlow was killed in 1977 the family was told the IRA by Gardai that he'd been shot as an informer by the IRA. The family later discovered that the weapon used was a .38 Smith and Wesson, a standard issue to the UDR.

Sinn Fein pushing an uniterested DUP?
This piece in today's Irish Independent doesn't have a byline, but it reads as a fairly accurate analysis of where things are (as opposed to where the party's say they are) at the moment. It argues that Sinn Fein is the more motivated of the two major parties to find a deal that sticks, before Tony Blair leaves office. It argues plausibly that nine seats at Westminster may well be enough to quell the undoubted hunger amongst some in the DUP to fill the democratic deficit in Northern Ireland.
Sinn Fein will learn that the price in terms of distancing themselves from the IRA from paramilitary connections and activities is now much higher than it was in November. What might have sealed the deal, then, for DUP and the British and Irish governments, is now much higher. A lot will depend on how two major political figures wish to leave the stage or to be remembered. Tony Blair, by most assessments, may not have much more than 18 months left in office. Ian Paisley is now a senior figure in his party and in Northern politics.

Having already felt the hand of history on his shoulder in negotiating the Good Friday Agreement, Blair may be anxious not to see his creation unravel. Indeed, his desire for completion in the time remaining to him may lead him to push on faster than some of the parties (and especially the DUP) wish to travel. Sinn Fein, for their part, will be anxious to complete the business in Blair's time in the belief, not entirely unfounded, that his successor is unlikely to accord the same priority for sorting out the North.

Dr Paisley is more of an enigma. Does he want to be remembered as the one who held the fort for unionism, who closed the gate on all truck with republicans; or as the benign father of his people, who led them out of the desert into a promised land of peace? There are those who suggest he would like to be First Minister of Northern Ireland, even for a relatively short time, before then departing the political scene. Whether he does or not could be a crucial factor in the shape of politics over the next few months.

Campbell: concentrate on accountable direct rule
Applying his party's logic that direct rule is all there's going to be until the IRA is effectively dealt with by Sinn Fein, he believes that all local political effort should be expended on making direct rule ministers accountable for their local decisions.

Tories: the once and future government?
As follow up to the excellent analysis and discussion on this thread, the Today programme yesterday announced their survey of Tory Party Chairmen which seems to signal a willingness to let the party's MP's have a greater say in who leads them after Michael Howard. Michael Heseltine said the party's voluntary activists were 'not representative of the middle ground that we have got to regain if there's a chance of a Tory government'. His tip was Ken Clarke on the 'left' of the party, but the internal money is going to David Davies. Here's the rest of the field. New rules announced tomorrow.

Time and results catching up with SF?
More stuff I missed during a hectic week of doing things other than Sluggering. This analysis from Tom Luby is worth re-visiting. He notes one of the less talked about aspects of the election results - that the absolute total of the nationalist has dropped "from a high point of 345,000 in the 2001 Westminster election to 300,000 in 2005?" Sinn Fein certainly made a point of referring to 'shredded votes', ie those people who couldn't vote because of the tighter regulation".

Luby thinks this unlikely:

In such circumstances it might be wiser to avoid unprovable speculation and judge the results as they stand. Accordingly, it is now possible to say that the upper limit of Sinn Fein’s votes is in the region of 170,000 votes while the bottom limit to the SDLP’s decline is in the region of 120,000 votes. Some 50,000 votes separate them but the gap would be even narrower if those missing SDLP votes had turned out instead of turning off.

He further extrapolates:

There are two implications for Sinn Fein from the result. One is that it may be impossible for the Provos to ever rout the SDLP and, denied top dog status, Messrs Adams & Co will have to accept that they need the SDLP’s support to advance the Nationalist agenda. That means doing deals with the SDLP and giving as well as taking. [ed note: this was written before the DI editorial and Jim Gibney's column both published on Thursday] The other implication is that the surviving SDLP vote can only be won to Sinn Fein by accelerating the journey into constitutional politics and away from the armed struggle era, thereby erasing altogether any difference between them.

The danger facing Sinn Fein is that if there is no engagement with the DUP and politics in the North begin to stagnate the party could be vulnerable to a challenge from an SDLP prepared to cut its own deal with Unionism. At the very least it is a threat that Durkan could hold over Adams’ head. Also worrying for Sinn Fein is the knowledge that any faltering in the electoral enterprise North of the Border could have implications for the party South of the Border.

Either way there is a message here that underlines the need for Sinn Fein to put the IRA to bed in an unequivocal fashion. In some ways the Provos are more vulnerable now than at any time since the Good Friday Agreement was signed. But don’t expect Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair to see that, nor any of their advisers.

Southern Protestants attitudes...
Going back to last Sunday, this article from the Sunday Times finds that attitudes amongst border Protestants towards mixed marriage is much harder amongst younger people than the older generation. It suggests that such attitudes are not learned from family, but from experience of society. PS, I've looked for the report itself, but can't find it online. Drop me a line if you can!

Drop the N from Northern Ireland?
Gearóid O Cairealláin is urging a form of civic action in which Nationalists drop the N from N Ireland when addressing letters. He's probably right that the letters will get to their destination anyway - although I recall a story about a postcard addressed to Greenisland that went to Greenland - twice! However, the workers down at the Royal Mail won't be too chuffed if people choose to dump the British postcodes as well!

The most live-bloggingest TV show ever?
Keith M isn't the only one live-blogging the 50th Eurovision Song Contest.. after covering the build-up, on the Guardian NewsBlog's Anna Pickard is taking the same approach to the festivities[although she may, possibly, just be sitting in front of the TV] - "20.27: Ah, hurrah for Norway, and long live comedy metal. If WigWam don't win this competition, I'll eat my keyboard.".. Hmmm.. And how could I have missed this - "20:11: It's Nox, from Hungary, it's no wonder Ireland failed to get through the Semi-final - they appear to have had all their tippity-tappity charm nicked by these guys." Hmmm.. again.

Review of Topical Poetry Book
Senator Maurice Hayes, former Ombudsman in NI, voices his approval in a review of the re-issued, from 1998, long poem about the North, "Pity for the Wicked" By Brian Lynch in the Irish Independent - A tract for the times - Lynch's poem on the North [registration site]

He concludes :

" Satire, although proper and necessary does not have to be right. Poets have a relatively poor track record as legislators. The situation in Northern Ireland, which has improved remarkably for those on the ground, does not yet necessitate a total withdrawal of hope, especially if all the poet has to offer, after all the rage, is pity as a substitute for silence.

This is nevertheless a powerful piece, a necessary mirror held up to nature, a tract for the times. "

US ban temporary.. for now
Gonzo blogged the US Government's refusal of a visa for Sinn Féin's Rita O'Hare yesterday. In today's Irish Times Conor O'Clery has the official explanation. Strictly speaking Rita O'Hare and other SF representatives are ineligible for a visa.. but have been allowed to travel under the conditions of a waiver. Those conditions specify that an itinery for each visit must be produced in advance.. and adhered to.. which on her last visit Rita O'Hare failed to do.

From the Irish Times -

Like many Sinn Féin figures, Ms O'Hare is ineligible for a US visa because of her past association with the IRA and must apply for a waiver for each visit. A waiver has been granted regularly in the last six years, allowing Ms O'Hare to make frequent visits to the US as Sinn Féin's Washington representative.

One of the rules of the waiver is that the person applying must provide a detailed itinerary, giving details of what places are to be visited in the US.

It is understood that on a recent visit with Sinn Féin negotiator Gerry Kelly, Ms O'Hare notified the State Department of her intention to visit New York, where she had arranged to meet Bill Flynn, chairman of Mutual of America and a major supporter of the peace process.

However, Mr Flynn was in Florida and the Sinn Féin representative flew to see him there, though it was not on her official itinerary.[emphasis added]

Conor O'Clery notes, however, that "The action of the State Department is being interpreted by some Irish-Americans as a shot across the bows for Sinn Féin, while Washington awaits the IRA's response to Gerry Adams's call to the IRA to engage in purely political and democratic activity."[emphasis, again, added]

Rumblings of discontent
Forget that silly game this afternoon where overpaid grown men run about after a piece of air-filled leather and hug and kiss each other in front of millions - THE final everyone should be talking about is tonight in the Ukraine. The Guardian's media correspondent, Owen Gibson, takes a look and reports Discord in Ireland over Eurovision failure.

"Irish eyes won't be smiling tonight after the country's failure to qualify for the Eurovision song contest led to bitter recriminations and left the BBC presenter Terry Wogan as its only representative at the contest in Ukraine.

Ireland, which has won the annual pop festival a record seven times, met its Waterloo after being forced to qualify for the first time under rules designed to pare down the number of countries performing on the night in the song contest's 50th year."

[my emphasis in bold]

and

" Louis Walsh, Logan's former manager, who now looks after Westlife, said Ireland should never have sent amateurs to a professional event.

"The standard was very, very high," he said, apparently with a straight face. "But other countries are sending their biggest stars, with their best songwriters. They did their very, very best, they didn't let us down. But they weren't good enough and the song was not good enough." "

C'es la vie, cherie!

Trouble in North Belfast
Petrol bombs, paint bombs and stones used in multiple attacks in North Belfast last night - as reported by Breaking News - Police appeal after sectarian attacks - a night when cars were burned and houses attacked in a number of what the police believe to be connected incidents.

West Belfast enters the Eurozone?
Well Sinn Fein may be against the EU constitution, but it seems West Belfast is ready to take Eurozone money. Thanks to reader Jer.

Mills live blogging from Kiev!
Keith Mills, who's a regular on Slugger is in Kiev for the Eurovision Song Contest with two blogging colleagues. If you're obsessive, or just a live blogging junkie, or what a sneak preview before betting on the outcome - get over there and check it out!

Yellow Card...
This time to Zorro. Foul play on a journalist. But it's worth reminding all our online players that keeping your eye on the ball, means not trying to take out other commenters either. Have a good weekend all!

O'Hare denied access to America..?
IRISH Northern Aid is circulating an email suggesting that Rita O'Hare may have been denied a Visa by the US State Department. O'Hare has visited the US on many occasions in the past and is a lynchpin in Sinn Fein's relationship to America in her capacity as the official SF representative. Is US pressure mounting on Sinn Fein?

From: Gerry Coleman

Re: Rita's Visa Denial
ACTION ALERT

I got a heads up from Rita that her visa was just denied as she was
preparing for her upcoming visit to the States.
As I understand it, it was denied under the ridiculous charge that
that had something to do with an unauthorized venue change. This is
nonsense. We know that this was a punitive action for whatever
political purposes. Rita has been the Official Sinn Fein
Representative in the US for at least 6 years and has traveled
across the country in this capacity keeping us and US activists and
the US administration and congress appraised of what is going on in
the Irish peace process and the republican position in this
process. She has been a very positive force in this process.
We should protest to our members of congress and other influential
contacts. Even if they are not necessarily supportive, merely
asking members of cong, etc. to seek information from the State
Dept, etc, about the case sends a message that we are out there.
As soon as I have a statement from Rita, I'll send it along. Then
we can establish were to go from there.

Our own home-grown refugees
An interesting piece covered by the beeb on a study analysing the reasons (mainly personal safety & political) why people left Northern Ireland during the height of the troubles and the social consequences. On the flip side. London-based Irish World looks includes a personal account and reflection on returning 'home' to Ireland after 20-30 years in Britain and the difficulties involved...

Take a walk on the Darth Side?
A quick one for self confessed Star Wars freak Pete Baker. It's the Darth Side blog. I've not managed to pluck up the will to say any of the prequels, but I do remember being stunned by the orignal Star Wars in Comber Cinema when it came out (eek!) nearly thirty years ago. By the time the Return of the Jedi arrived I was in England. My obsessive mate Dave used to go and see it two or three times a week when it showed for what seemed like months in Liverpool.

Homer loves Catholics, part 2
Coincidentally, the Irish News, the Belfast Telegraph and Ireland Online have all picked up on the story we brought you yesterday about Homer Simpson's love of Catholicism.. it was also mentioned on RTE's Morning Ireland.

Northern Ireland's first Euro blog!
An excellent new addition to the Northern Irish blogsphere is the EU in Northern Ireland blog. The heat is sure to climb over the next few weeks as first the French and then the Dutch deliver their referenda verdicts on the EU's new constitution (our new SoS Peter Hain was the UK's key negotiator at the constitutional convention). Our money is on a one and possibly two stage coup. It's a good time also to be reading the excellent A Fistful of Euros, and it's offshoot, A few Euros more.

Bring back Dana?
Will we still be glued to the tv on saturday night now that the Irish entry has not made it to the final of the Eurovision competition...?