A very narrow field of nominations in Holywood this time and a wide open seat as popular local Independent Councillor Dennis 'Pothole' Ogborn is standing down.

Nominations are 2 UUP 1 DUP 2 Alliance 1 Green for 6 seats. Reckon Unionist transfers will decide it between Ian Parsley and John Barry. Good luck IJP!

Mick,

If the Greens do gain a seat and I hope they do, at a guess which party do you feel their electorate previosly voted for.

Regards.

If I lived in Abbey where Kelly Andrews is standing, I'd love to give her one. But I'll probably have to make it three, as I'll be voting UUP one and two.

Is wee Ian banking on the DUP going over quota?

maybe my maths is bad but can those figures be right young fogey?

Tom/YF,

There are five seats in Holywood, not six!

These are the key issues in most constituencies, but the infrastructure in Northern Ireland has been neglected. Hopefully we will get to the days when a party like the Green Party will do better in elections in Ireland, until that it is 'sectarianism as usual.'

"The key issues are local. "It comes down to simple things, like dogshit on the street, recycling and the fact the sewage plant is not working. And the secrecy around planning is another key issue"

Doubt they can win any seats this time.

"It comes down to simple things, like dogshit on the street, recycling and the fact the sewage plant is not working. And the secrecy around planning is another key issue"
Is it really all about what to do with turds
human or canine;)

Both the Green and IJP candidates are good. IJP is a thoughtful person (although spends too much time on Slugger to be a good worker?). Should be space for both of them long term.

If I had to choose I would favour the Green, as I'd like to see the Greens established with a foothold in NI politics.

The article below is from the Green Party's web site. I can't see them getting many Unionist votes as the NI Greens are just a regional council of the All Ireland Green Party. Or maybe they keep things like that quiet on the doorsteps in North Down and concentrate on trees instead!

Green Party to organise on all-Ireland basis
By: Alan Warren on: 07.02.2005

THE Green Party is set to become the only party after Sinn Féin to give the go-ahead to organise on an all-Ireland basis.

At a special convention in Dublin at the weekend the party decided to remove any obstacles to all-island participation. The move clears the way for the Green Party of Northern Ireland to become a regional council of the All Ireland Green Party provided a pending meeting of the Green Party in Northern Ireland confirms the agreement.

There are five seats in Holywood, not six!

I knew that. I just didn't type it! :oops:

The DUP polled 15.0% in 2001 in Holywood, there is no PUP candidate and no Dennis Ogborn last time, and the DUP are going to poll better than in 2001 across the country. I don't think you need to be a rocket scientist to work out they'll pass the quota this time (16.67%).

Last time Alliance polled 24.6% here and the NIWC 8.3%. If the Greens poll roughly the NIWC vote from 2001, IJP should be in with a good chance if Alliance can balance ahead of John Barry. Ogborn's vote (just over 13%) was largely a moderate one and ought to help Alliance to get close to the 2 Quota mark here. I'm moderately surprised the SDLP have no candidate here, although that's probably a sign of their fraying organisation generally.

BTW, there have only been six nominations for six seats in Ballinderry DEA for Cookstown DC, meaning there is no election there (unopposed return). Same happened in Ards East last time.

There seem to be a habit of the DUP undernominating this time. They've only one candidate up in Oldpark where they really ought to have been looking to win both Unionist seats. Instead Nelson McCausland's massive surplus will decide it between Cobain and Hutchinson. There were a few other obvious ones when I trawled through the nominations list.

Young Fogey, do you think this is the DUP repeating their time-honoured habit of having one strong candidate top the poll convincingly rather than maximise representation across several seats ?

Not sure. I think it's just a simple cock up.

The DUP have had a strange nomination system up here too. They are only standing two candidates in Causeway where they are sitting councillors. I expected them to field a third here. They are however standing two in Ballycastle where last time out Gardiner Kane scraped in by three votes on the last count as their only candidate. I cannot see two unionist seats remaining in Ballycastle with the influx of Belfast people, 95% nationalists, to the town. Helen Harding the sitting UUP councillor will definetly be returned so I do not know what the DUP think they are doing splitting their vote?

@ peace and justice: Your quote does the Greens no 'justice'.

What you refer to in your quote is only part of the Green Party's position of being an organisation constitutioned on an 'all-islands' basis, i.e. east-west as much as north-south.

For proof of this in action, you need only to browse through their website (www.greens-in.org) to see articles of support and active involvement by Scottish, English as well as 'Southern' Green Parties.

Sadly, it seems, those who have little to offer future generations of people in Northern Ireland, cannot reach beyond attempts to undermine others offering real solutions. P&J: there is an alternative, try removing the blinkers and take it!

I think John Barry will get 15%, no NIWC or SDLP plus Brian Wilson the former Alliance and Independent will have a spill over effect.
Also Kelly Andrews will poll well and just might scrape in.
Brian Wilson will again top the poll.
3 seats are a strong possibility for the Greens as there is a pact with the Women's coalition who are standing with no Green opposition in Ballyhome Grooomsport.

Hmmm. Why have't we seen the delectable Kelly Andrews on our TV screens before?

I have to say I had never heard of her, but is she the most attractive female politician in NI?

If I am not mistaken, I think Kelly Andrews is from Dublin which is probably why she hasn't been seen around much before.

Ah, I see. Thanks Rebecca.

I think they will take a seat in Newry, they are running a vicious campaign in the Hilltown Warrenpoint area. They aare also in with a good chance in Lisburn, and Larne.

It is a pity the last seat is between IJP and the Greens. It would be nice to see some ofthe others fall.

Hagrid,
that was my understanding also, that the Green Party was looking to work on an all-islands basis - Britain and Ireland.

Scarlet

The UUP vote could go down and the weakest Unionist fall. They are at 30% and falling.

5 of the candidates are pro Union in one way or another. Alliance supports the Union as a fact of life. There is a large Catholic population in Holywood and Greens could do surprisingly well given their more balanced approach to the East West North South links. Also there is a higher than normal natural Green vote in this area.

Also the UUP are running a very poor campaign and it could well be that one of the Unionist councillors loose their seat.

Don't see IJP much on Slugger lately wonder why?

Voters now have a chance to send the strongest possible message for the poor performance of local parties and to Direct Rule ministers that they would no longer tolerate neglect of local environmental and social issues. It is time to put quality of life at the top of the political agenda in Northern Ireland.

On the doorsteps we have encountered a lot of disillusionment with the established parties. The positive response Green candidates have received has been extremely encouraging and I believe Green candidates are poised to make a significant breakthrough by having local councillors directly elected across the North for the first time.

If the Green party in Northern Ireland can win several council seats then it will truly be a historic day for the development of Green politics in the North.

Yet another blatant attempt by a southern party leader to try an influence the northern Sluggers. It won't work, Sluggers on the virtual doorsteps can see through this with their webcams and will vote IJP regardless.

Thank you Ringo, you're a star!

Ahem, that 05.45 PM was not from me, I was already on the doorsteps (in Strand Mews no less, which will mean something to someone...) at that time!

Ringo is a star of course, but I'd never degenerate to such farcical humour...

Many thanks to those of you who have wished me well.

Lets count.

Ian -Good luck tomorrow mate.

Ian & John

I hope you both get in and one of the Unionists is replaced. It is possible. The North Down council does need new blood with something to offer.

From N. Whyte’s site

UUP: 1, 837 (30.0%), 2 seats
DUP: 916 (15.0%), 1 seat
Alliance: 1,506 (24.6%), 1 seat
PUP: 122 (2.0%)
Cons: 188 (3.0%)
NIWC: 509 (8.3%)
Ind: 1,047 (17.1%), 1 seat

50% of the vote last time went to non Unionists, more if you include conservatives. In the last 4 years in my opinion that percentage will have increased slightly.

DUP will have over a quota say 20% and inter Unionist transfer rate will be down. If one of the UUP go over quota they could loose the seat.

On the other side Alderdice will be over quota and transfer rates are never 100%. If Alliance can take UUP votes to balance votes they will loose to Greens, between this and DUP pressure the UUP could go down to below 25% and if they do they are in trouble.

Very tight but I think the UUP could loose a seat. Also UUP vote will not split evenly. Just how weak will the last Unionist be?

Sincerest thanks to those who wished me well. And to those who didn't... :)))

I look forward to the challenge of representing the people of Holywood for the next four years, and of course will report back to you all regularly!