Thanks BG for taking the time to listen to and analyse Adams at the CFR.

I watched Richard Haass in an interview on American TV afterwards and he was not taken in by Adams. Richard explained how he actually got Adams to back off his infamous "But we refuse to criminalize those who break the law in pursuit of legitimate political objectives".

Back on March 3rd I blogged: http://patflannery.com/IrelandToday.htm#03/08/05

"Let Adams tell that to our American President. It will be Adams' epitaph and the McCartney girls will be the ones to write it, for he has no intention of giving up any of his gang to the "rule of law". He lies as other men breathe."

Adams is out of his depth going up against Richard Haass and Mitchell Reiss. These guys have his number.

And they haven't gone away you know.

Gonzo

Why don't you try reading the script objectively? Your analysis betrays more than a little bias.

"But even if it isn't possible for Sinn Fein to deliver a demobilised IRA, Adams argues that he himself is actually integral to efforts to do so."

Why do you see any contradiction to this? Of course it is not possible for Sinn Féin on its own to create and implement all of the conditions and circumstances that would deliver a complete end to any or all armed groups. Do you really think that it is possible for Sinn Féin to do this? You really do need to think hard on this.

But of course Sinn Féin is integral to all of the efforts to do so. And so are all of the other political parties and the 2 governments.

This is really very basic my friend.

I think if many of Sinn Féin's political opponents were honest, they want to see an end to the IRA, only on their own terms. In fact Paisley was most honest of all when he said that he wanted to see republicans humiliated, repenting and wearing sackcloth and ashes until the sackcloth wore out. But of course all of this only delays the entire process.

Sinn Féin's opponents are seeking a victory and to defeat republicanism, further they are seeking to criminalise the republican struggle. This seems to be their only strategy now.

Do you honestly think that this strategy will work? It has been tried ad infinitum. It has never worked before. Do you honestly think that this strategy of trying to demonise and criminalise people who have worked hard to play their part in achieving a comprehensive peace settlement will be successful? Of course it won't. All it will do is damage the process.

You have got to remember and be honest about it, the peace process is about much more than an 'end the IRA process'. It is much much wider and much more than that.

Now are the political opponents of Republicanism able to face that obvious fact?

This remains to be seen.

Liam:

As you seem to be the designated SF policeman on Slugger here is an American perspective for you:

I listened carefully to Adams' longwinded "Die Zeit ohne Beispiel" style speech. I'm sure you and your spin colleagues give him high marks in your closed little world. But what you may not realize is how familiar it all sounds to us over here and that it actually had the opposite effect to that which you intended.

We don’t have to go back to Joseph Goebbels to recognize the old arguments for the tactical use of terror, when we hear Adams we hear Arafat.

You spinmeisters working for the firm might want to study up on Arafat and try to avoid sounding too much like him. It may be too late, the impression has already taken hold here: Adams is Arafat with a Belfast accent. We have heard it all before.

Adams is decent speaker. He combines a folksie conversational approach with a strong grasp of policy. You might disagree with him, as 'Ireland Today' clearly does. However, he is in no immediate danger of losing much of his U.S. fan club.

The bottom line, and something important to remember for Irish looking to analyze U.S. public opinion is that at least 75% of U.S. citizens don't care at all , and couldn't find D.C. on a map let alone Belfast. Most Irish Americans who pay attention are intuitively, culturally in favor of a united Ireland... and will remain sympathetic to Sinn Fein so long as Sinn Fein leaders remain articulate, as Adam's quite clearly was on his recent trip.

Republicanism as a movement will not be injured, in the long-haul, by the current embrolios, if they keep their wits about them. The IRA is another matter... but where is the news here? Everyone already knew that the current phase of physical force republicanism was over. Whether it returns again at some distant point is, as always, more under the control of the foreign occupier than of the local population... who in the most basic since have always been reacting rather than creating the problem.

And... as we all, who honestly reflect... also know... the level of 'criminality' in Ballymurphy, Aroyne, or New Lodge is lower and less conected to paramilitaries than it is on Shankill, or Tiger's Bay. An act of murder is a horrible thing... but it does not magically make context and history... and reality disappear. Those in power, or those who power choses to ignore are rendered able to throw stones despite the glass houses that they dwell in. This is unfortunate, but a truth that is still with us.

My first time here, Google steered me to the site! And I am confused by something Gonzo said:
"So in seeking to have it both ways, Adams seems to be saying that he should not be excluded, but avoids having to take the responsibility for the IRA's exit."

How is this seeking to 'have it both ways'? He is elected with his own mandate. If he cannot wind up the IRA then he cannot. It is bizarre to say that someone democratically elected can only have their mandate recognised if they get a third party to do something!

From the perspective of an American who has covered a bit of ground in urban and rural Northern Ireland on both sides of the sectarian divide, I continue to be amazed at the current focus on Adams and Sinn Fein. Right now, there's simply no way that trashing political republicanism is going to move the North forward. The "Arafat of Northern Irish politics" has got to be Ian Paisley, who had an incredible deal in his hands last December -- including total IRA disarmament. Paisley killed the December deal because he can't stomach the idea of republicans in government.

What doesn't seem to register these days is that 25 percent of the Northern Ireland electorate votes Sinn Fein. There is no democratic means of excluding these people from the political process. Paisley's answer is simply to prevent the political process from getting back on its feet. But restoration of the political process is crucial if the provos are to move away from the paramilitary model. Anybody with a glimmer of sense can see how close the republican paramilitaries are to a major split. The Continuity IRA and Real IRA guys are licking their chops. I would guess the odds of a bomb going off in London before the summer are sitting right now at 50-50. And all anybody in London, Dublin, or Washington can seem to do is berate the IRA and Sinn Fein. It's simply a pity. The people who will ultimately suffer are those on the ground in Northern Ireland, who are watching aghast as the chance for generational peace is being trashed by short-sighted politicians and ignorant press commentators.

Donnelly - The incredible deal you talk of Paisley killing would have given SF room for the IRA to continue it's criminal activities. Doesn't look so great, does it?

Poitin - a certain type of irish-American certainly responds to the persona 'Chameleon' Adams adopts when he's visiting. How would they react if they saw some of the other Adams ? The Adams in I Love Castro T-shirt ? How about the Adams who eulogised Yasser Arafat ? Or how about if Adams came out and said what his party actually believe about the USA foreign policy ?

Or how about if Adams came out and said what his party actually believe about the USA foreign policy ?

Sinn Féin have consistently made their concerns about US foreign policy and their opposition to the war in Iraq prefectly clear.

http://sinnfein.ie/policies/international

Oh aye, but they don't exactly make an issue of it when in the USA, do they ? Or have I missed Gerry raising hell over the US troops passing through Shannon while over there this month ? ;)
That's why I referred to his chameleon ability Paddy. Let me know when he calls Bush a butcher on Mainstream TV or in a mainstream US newspaper interview , or when he slags off the US troops behaviour in Afghanist and and Iraq and I'll eat my (non-bowler) hat.

Davros, did your parents never teach you that if haven't something nice to say about someone then you shouldn't say anything at all?!

LOL Paddy :) Hey, I'll remind you of that next time you want to discuss the SDLP or Paisley or Trimble !

Let's be honest ... SF despise the only section of Irish America that are now prepared to welcome Gerry. They are to the right of Genghis McCann. They were dropped like hot potatoes when FoSF appeared.

"There is no democratic means of excluding these people from the political process."

Yes there is, watch us do it - in much the same way as Democrats in the US Congress are excluded from decisions when the Republicans feel like it, or when the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are excluded from decision making because the Labour Party feels like it in the UK. Democracy doesn't mean that you include everyone.

Donnelly, to expand on what I'm saying. I don't see a lot of difference between the DUP and Sinn Fein to be honest I think both of those parties rejected the deal at the end of last year for very stupid reasons. Up until the bank robbery I supported an inclusive government with Sinn Fein not because I support them but because I thought it had to be done. Since the bank robbery I haven't supported them in that way, and the McCartney murder has served to reinforce my view in that respect.

If you want to talk about mandates, you need to mention the mandate held by the parties who don't want Sinn Fein in power until they sort out this IRA business one way or another. At the moment that's well in excess of 70% of the votes here. You can't force people to consent to the governance of a party who don't, can't or won't play on the same legal playing field as everyone else. It's no good playing the "what about our civil rights" card, that doesn't wash anymore.

The problem with the prevailing mindset-of-the-day is that it is naive to believe that criminal gangsterism -- Loyalist or Republican -- is best contained in a power vacuum. The reality is that gangsterism is flourishing under the power vacuum.

It is also naive to expect Sinn Fein to "sort out this IRA business" under the power vacuum. Simply stated, the provos have been waiting for Sinn Fein to deliver police reform, demilitarization, and a seat for republicans at the table.

The greatest danger lies in the growing instability of the existing power vacuum. A devolved government with actual on-the-groun political power allocated by the parties' respective abilities to garner votes is far less dangerous.

This is not about a "blame game." It's about taking a constructive approach. The risks of an operating political system in the North do not even approach the risks of ongoing gridlock and continued rule from London.

Sinn Fein cannot fix this crisis. And things are, indeed, in crisis. So it's sad and scary to see that the best London, Dublin, and Washington can offer is to berate Sinn Fein and the IRA. If there is a larger vision underlying all of this, a vision truly devoted toward moving things forward and securing the gains of the last decade, then it is an astoundingly subtle one.

Reading the comments of our american contributors, I wonder if their problem is lack of understanding or simply insufficient critical thought.

Firstly, there are few people in Ireland who believe that Sinn Fein and the IRA are not linked, with some cross-over membership and leadership. Far from being a third party they are the one body and blood.

Adams' comments are interesting because they compare his own position with that of Devalera. That is a recognition that violent republicanism may not be ended by the current peace process. Adams is right when he suggests that his strength consists of being able to lead people towards a new phase, away from that violence. What is explicit in his words is also that he believes that he and others in the leadership can achieve the move towards politics.

Now, you either believe Adams when he says that, or you have to question it. In the light of recent events, considering the avoidance, prevarication and downright obtuseness with which Sinn Fein have responded to the McCartney murder, and going back as far as the McCabe nmurder, can anyone reasonably be expected not to question Adams' words?

Is it not more reasonable to expect that the job that Adams, McGuinness and others have in front of them is to drain off as much blood as possible in order to render the body powerless, but with the expectation that it will survive in diminished form. There will always be dangers inherent in that, and reasons aplenty to put off the final cut.

What impetus there has been for that change has not come from republicans ( no matter how many may fervently wish for this ). It has come from other parties to the conflict. The current media feeding frenzy, far from being a threat to the peace process, is actually a dynamic that is sweeping us towards the completion of that task. It is uncomfortable for some, but valued by the majority.

Alan, if 'the current media feeding frenzy' is sweeping us anywhere it is back into the troubles. Twenty five years of exclusion, isolation etcetera of Republicans lead nowhere. I am old enough to remember the good ole days we could read pompous editorials in the media assuring us that "less than a fraction of 1%" of Nationalists in NI had any time for the 'men of violence'.

Now it is 60%! (The media assured us all pre-election that a vote for SF was a vote for the IRA, something they seem to have forgotten). If I were in the business of giving advice I would tell the Shinners to hang tough, do not budge on policing,and let the Nationalist people of NI decide in a few short weeks whether they agree to the re-imposition of the RUC.

My guess is they will re-endorse SF. Of course I could be wrong.

DXI : Twenty five years of exclusion, isolation etcetera of Republicans lead nowhere

The reality is different. It was the 25 years of exclusion etc combined with military action that led to the IRA holding up a white flag. It was the appeasement that followed, the policy of cutting them slack, writing off their crimes in "their own areas" as "internal Housekeeping" that has constipated the process.

The worry for me is that they have 2 choices - the RM's leadership face reality and tackle criminality and thuggery as the price they will have to pay to allow the GFA to move forward OR they revert to type and adopt another Athboy strategy. The Marching season. I suspect Adams and co' MAY decide to up the ante and do their damnedest to spark of widespread Loyalist violence so that they can sell themselves to their own community - and all those gullible dollar-donors in Canada, USA and Australia - as the only protectors of the RC community. Sure it would mean RC lives being lost at the hands of the Loyalist scumbags - but when have the IRA ever worried about innocent civilians, protestant or Catholic ? Their heroes in 1916 didn't and neither have they down the years since then.

It was the 25 years of exclusion etc combined with military action that led to the IRA holding up a white flag.

Well Davros your perception of reality is obviously different from mine. I would have added the economically devastating bombings in London and the inability of the security forces to put down the Provos to the mutual desire for a solution. A desire not shared by the highly paid security establishment (or, no doubt, by some members in the RM who had developed lucrative sidelines in smuggling and such).

And I think you omit a third choice the RM has. It can follow the advice I have given, gratis, and wait for the election results!

DXI - Even a draw for the provos counted as a loss. Their goal was to change the status quo. They have been forced to accept the status of N.I. That's why the Union flag is still flying over NI.

As for your advice - will the rest of the NI and the world allow the RM to wait it out ? Waiting it out will just allow the thugs and crooks to dig the hole deeper and deeper.

The rest of the world?! The Chinese, Indians, Russians, Arabs and Africans you mean? Yeah I guess they can wait another few weeks.

As for the Anglos I don't see they have much choice but to wait out the results of the elections given that currently SF represent the majority of the Nationalists in NI.

As for that flag, we are engaged in a process .

The fact is Dr No and the DUPes painted themselves into a corner with their systematic self centred attacks on Trimble.

They couldn't take the chance of being left out in the cold by the IRA, and as they trust no-one including themselves, the risk involved with trusting the IRA was too much for them, hence the sack-cloth and ashes speech.

Donnelly is unfortunately right and the media frenzy is another self-serving travesty promoted by politicians placing their skins above those of the people they are elected to "serve".

Judging by this the real question is :

Will the present policy of demonizing the SF leadership for short term political gain finally make them incapable of bringing the proponents of physical force republicanism in from the cold ?

Text in full for those not subscribed :

"UK police warn of possible attacks by IRA in Britain

07:31 Sunday March 20th 2005 :

Police in the UK have warned the risk of an attack by dissident republicans in Britain has increased.

Security services have raised the threat level of a bombing campaign to "substantial" just one level below the threat from al-Qaeda.

Although there's no specific intelligence, officers believe dissident republicans may be pushing for terrorist action.

Scotland Yard's counter terrorism section has sent an email about a new threat to businesses in London after they received intelligence from MI5 about increased activity amongst groups like the Real IRA.

They warn that misleading telephone warnings could be used to amplify the destructive effect of the attacks, similar to the warning delivered before the Omagh bombing."

Let's hope and pray that this will not come to be.

Roger :

Democracy doesn't mean that you include everyone.

That is a very DUPe way of looking at democracy.

As the man said :

"Democracies are judged by the way they treat their minorites."

The NI statelet was constructed undemocratically and mathematically to ensure uncontestable majority rule, it has no claims to democracy. In its conception were sown the seeds of its destruction, in its malignant mismanagement the seeds of its moral decline, in its incapacity to change and compromise the seeds of its violent civil war.

The NI staelet is a failed political entity, the only democratic thing to do is to end its existence and find another model that will lead to security and prosperity for all the people here.

Democracy doesn't mean that you include everyone.

Welcome back Stormont all is forgiven?????

Welcome back Stormont all is forgiven?????

Isn't that SF's policy as long as their snouts are in the ministerial trough ? Holiday homes in Donegal aren't cheap these days.

'I suspect Adams and co' MAY decide to up the ante and do their damnedest to spark of widespread Loyalist violence so that they can sell themselves to their own community - and all those gullible dollar-donors in Canada, USA and Australia - as the only protectors of the RC community. Sure it would mean RC lives being lost at the hands of the Loyalist scumbags - but when have the IRA ever worried about innocent civilians, protestant or Catholic ?'

I seem to remember that less than 9 months ago a number of senior SF personnel intervened to prevent a slaughter during an Orange Order/ UDA parade along the Crumlin Rd. Members of the parachute regiment were about to open fire and people like Gerry Kelly actually put themselves in the firing line to prevent a complete catastrophe taking place.
At subsequent meetings in Ardoyne they were castigated by locals and people connected to the INLA.
But then again we are on the heels of the hunt at the moment and truth takes a backseat to all sorts of weird fantasies and wishful thinking.

I seem to remember that less than 9 months ago a number of senior SF personnel intervened to prevent a slaughter during an Orange Order/ UDA parade along the Crumlin Rd. Members of the parachute regiment were about to open fire and people like Gerry Kelly actually put themselves in the firing line to prevent a complete catastrophe taking place.

That exaggerated scenario was then Pat. It's been all downhill since then for gerry and his merry men. Caught out in the negotiations, wrong-footed over McCabe, skewered by the Northern Bank Robbery, banjaxed by Richard O'Rawe's revelations about the callous and vicious cruelty of the leadership ensuring for their own reasons that the last 6 hungerstrikers died needlessly and crucified by events in Short Strand.

The SF core vote will hold because of all the good work by the Dr Jekylls of the party and some good social policies. Sadly I fear the Mr Hydes are calling the shots and there's a danger that they will revert to type to try and regain lost ground.
According to Ed Moloney Adams allowed it to happen in the early days to get his local population's support. These days he and the rest of the Hydes are working with a far bigger constituency than one estate in Belfast.

Davros, for somebody who is well able to make reasoned and mature contributions, you seem to be losing any sense of perspective lately?

It was the 25 years of exclusion etc combined with military action that led to the IRA holding up a white flag.

Do you not know that these words and this viewpoint is not only unhelpful but is completely counter productive.

The reality is that the IRA did not wave any 'white flag' and you need to accept that and stop looking for a 'victory' over republicanism. You simply can't have it! The IRA support the peace process and have taken historical initiatives to enhance it - but you know this.

Now, I am a very proud republican and a long time supporter of the IRA and whether you like it or not there are hundreds of thousands like me. I do not trust the british government, I do not trust the political leaders of unionism. I trust my own people first and foremost.

We all want to see an end to all armed groups. But you need to decide. Do you want an end to all armed groups, or do you really just aspire to a victory over the IRA? You see, to my community, it is very clear that those who share your political views are more interested in attempting to bash republicans than in genuinely furthering the peace process.

Does it surprise you that republicans are not going to allow themselves to be bashed like this? Does it surprise you that all of this adds nothing to the peace process, but only slows and damages it?

Isn't that SF's policy as long as their snouts are in the ministerial trough ?

If they are at the trough then they are not excluded are they? I was referring to the so-called NI Government, of course. Nothing wrong with the building per se. Fine edifice. Nice driveway.

D:It was the 25 years of exclusion etc combined with military action that led to the IRA holding up a white flag.

Do you not know that these words and this viewpoint is not only unhelpful but is completely counter productive.

Liam - the RM has been allowed 7 years leeway for their bullfeathers. It's time for some realism and honesty. Peace and justice is on offer. It's up to the leadership of the RM and nobody else to remove the obstacles to progress.

I trust my own people first and foremost.

Considering it was "your own people" who slaughtered Robert McCartney and that it's "your own people" who are crippling your own kids in beatings and shootings I'm afraid your trust is misplaced.

If they are at the trough then they are not excluded are they?

They weren't excluded when they helped administer British rule _ PFI and all that ;) They had to be shown the door however when their other less acceptable activities were exposed.

Yes...and the alternative you suggest seems to be a return to the OLD Stormont? That is what Christ XVII seemed to be clearly implying. No?

The alternative I suggest is the GFA. No room for the IRA, no room for Punishment cripplings, no room for armed robbery and no room for thuggery like the McCartney murder with ensuing SF duplicity.

Davros,

The site is getting more and more hits from people, especially in the USA. They are looking for informed debate, not wild and baseless allegations that have events spiralling out of control.
You do yourself no favours with such speculative claptrap.

It is like stating that the disappearing of Lisa Dorrian (you know the case, the Catholic girl who the PSNI and others don't want to talk about) allegedly by a unionist paramilitary group, is the start of a fresh unionist onslaught against Catholics.

"Alan, if 'the current media feeding frenzy' is sweeping us anywhere it is back into the troubles."

I just don't know where to start with comments like this. My first reaction is to interpret them as an indirect threat. Do as we say, otherwise the violence will start again. Do you really think that people are persuaded by this case ? Republicanism can't be persuaded by the force of loyalist or British Army guns - why do people think that the British government and the unionists can be persuaded by IRA guns ? Is it true that loyalists who are unhappy with their treatment should also simply be pandered to in order to keep them from using their guns ? It's rubbish.

Things are completely different from what they were in 1969. This time the exclusion is partially sponsored by the Irish government who are saying that Sinn Fein can't get into government in the Dail unless the IRA disbands. Does that mean the IRA would take it's war to the streets of Dublin ? If the Irish government won't have SF among their numbers why should those of us up North take them in ?

I think the problem is that certain people here are still stuck with the belief that nothing has changed since 1969. It's completely wrong.

SP

As I stated elsewhere, Schleswig and the Tyrol were partitioned in exactly the same way Ireland was at a similar time. That partition remains, there is no fighting, and there is democracy (even though there wasn't originally).

There are in fact very, very few states that were constructed democratically. Most were constructed by war.

However, we have moved on. This is the 21st century. We did have a democratic vote in 1998 that did democratically establish beyond question the existence of NI, but which at the same time abolished for ever the concept of majority rule.

I'm sorry, but harping on about 1920 just doesn't cut it. Millions of people across Europe have suffered similar. Yet NI is one of the few exceptions where people are unwilling to get on with real politics rather than outdated concepts of Nationalism.

If you want an all-Ireland State, and I have no objection to one in principle myself, argue for it. But constant reference to the past only hardens the people you have to persuade against it.

We all have our histories. We all have our futures too.

DXI

"Alan, if 'the current media feeding frenzy' is sweeping us anywhere it is back into the troubles."

Care to explain...

If people want to be included in the democratic process, then they should vote for democrats. If people choose to isolate themselves, then they needn't think that gives them an excuse to massacre people.

DXI, Can we try to keep a bit of rationality here ? The old Stormont is gone and is never coming back. Is the USA a discriminatory state because the Democrats who represent nearly half the voters in the entire country have no automatic powers in the Federal government ? Is Ireland a discriminatory state because Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats maintain a coalition which excludes the representatives of almost half the voting population including Labour, Fine Gael, the Greens as well as Sinn Fein ? Of course it isn't.

Stormont was run the way it was run because it was based on the British model where everyone plays by the rules and sticks to tradition. The Labour Party at the moment for example has no need to listen to the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats when it is drafting legislation, but it frequently does and has to because that is fair play. Unfortunately that formula of fair play cannot work in Northern Ireland and Stormont established that clearly. There needs to be a range of oversight mechanisms and statutes which prevent discriminatory practices from taking place.

Discrimination against politicians because of their background or religion is wrong, and people who advocate that are part of the problem. The unionists ran a sectarian junta with paramilitary trappings and that is completely and totally off the table (I think finally, within the past two years, the unionists are starting to accept that). What we need is a power sharing government with in-built checks and balances that ensure there is no discrimination, everyone gets their say, and that no one group of people can deprive another group of their rights. However that entire project is doomed to complete and utter failure if members of that administration maintain their friendship with people who slice up civilians in bar fights and rob banks.

Discrimination against politicians because they keep the company of people who murder their own constituents and rob banks is not only right, but necessary to maintain some semblance of credibility in democracy. The IRA is a criminal organization; it robs post offices and businesses in Ireland and it shoots police officers in Ireland. A short time ago one of Sinn Fein's election workers was raided in Cork and found with millions of pounds stashed in boxes in a shed in his back garden. Would you let people like that in your government ?

Christ XVII. (May I call you Christ?) I am not making any threats for the simple reason that I am not a member of any political party or paramilitary or criminal organisation. I am not in any position to make threats, nor do I wish to be. I am somewhat indifferent as to whether people are persuaded by this case. I am giving my view on a likely outcome. And I would be obliged if you would avoid claiming that my speculation that violence may return is a "threat".

Anyway Christ, now that we have that out of the way, I know the OLD Stormont is gone. And I see the GFA as the only way forward. But nowhere does it say in the GFA document for which I voted that any party must succeed in getting any other party to disband. It is the British Government, with the collusion of the Irish Government, who is in breach.

I do not accept analogies comparing the Republic with NI. A more appropriate comparison would be Kosovo, where the British and Americans, in breach of international law, reckoned that the behaviour of the Serbian police in that province merited bombing the country for three months and killing thousands of innocent civilians. So Tony Blair himself set the precedent that an unacceptable police force can lead to the suspension of established borders. Surely you are not saying that the British and Americans can pick and choose which borders are inviable?

We did have a democratic vote in 1998 that did democratically establish beyond question the existence of NI, but which at the same time abolished for ever the concept of majority rule. Nope. Wrong. We voted for a package in 1998, which did not say SF must succeed in getting the IRA abolished. But is did say things about policing which the British Government have not delivered.

IJP

"if 'the current media feeding frenzy' is sweeping us anywhere it is back into the troubles." What is not clear about that?

If people want to be included in the democratic process, then they should vote for democrats. If people choose to isolate themselves, then they needn't think that gives them an excuse to massacre people.

In a democracy one is free to vote for anyone who puts themselves forward, whether someone else regards them as democrats or not. That's why it's called democracy! Regarding your second point I am not sure who these folk who would choose to isolate themselves in order to engage in a massacre are. Special Branch? UVF? Give me a hint.

IJP

I was replying to Rogers remarks about democracy.

I'm afraid that your references to Schleswig and Tyrol are exmples of uncharacteristic whataboutery.

I have no time for a smoke and mirrors sideshow about those areas.

The disfonctioning of the NI statelet is actuality, I know and share your opinions about realpolitik, and would love to see all the people here engage in constructif politics on the real issues, security economics education health etc..

I would gladly sacrifice any Union for the Union of the people.

However you cannot ignore one simple fact here :

Northern Ireland does not work, it has never worked and will never work in its present form. The GFA is as near as we have come to a functioning unit, but it isn't cutting it.

Why ?

Because for the upteenth time in the history of this statelet, politicians have put their skins before those of the people they are elected to serve, and shown total lack of leadership.

Once again they place short term tactical gains above the interests of the people, and once again the disfonctioning model here rewards them for doing so.

Conclusion, change the model or be doomed for many more generations of sectarianism and bigotry.

Or are the Tyrolians just cleverer than we ?

Nice Try Pat -you do a bit of smearing for those American visitors elsewhere and here you try stop discussion in order to try and spare those American illusions of the IRA being heroes in Trench coats :)

Your antics are a wonderful confirmation of the desperation that exists withing the faithful. When even Teddy Kennedy can look down his nose at you and when even the Irish-Americans are beginning to ask awkward questions, the game's mighty close to being up matey ! I mean, Gerry is having to press flesh with Noraiders again! Remember how he snubbed them when FoSF came along ? ;)
How are the mighty fallen.

The smears you are putting about take me back to the days when the faithful were told to spread the word that Jean McConville wasn't dead but had abandoned her children to run away with a Brit Fancy-Man. It didn't work then and it won't work now.

I have no time for a smoke and mirrors sideshow about those areas.

But by implication you don't mind smoke and mirror sideshows about events in Ireland .....

Davros,

'Nice Try Pat -you do a bit of smearing for those American visitors elsewhere and here you try stop discussion in order to try and spare those American illusions of the IRA being heroes in Trench coats :)'

Evidence of smearing would be welcome Davros please, if only for the entertainment value.
Trenchcoats, so passe.

'When even Teddy Kennedy can look down his nose at you'

Ted Kennedy doesn't know me.

'The smears you are putting about take me back to the days when the faithful were told to spread the word that Jean McConville wasn't dead but had abandoned her children to run away with a Brit Fancy-Man. It didn't work then and it won't work now.'

Again evidence of smears please. Can you really remember the Mc Conville case? The last person to 'smear' Mrs Mc Conville' was Ed Moloney who described her as a British Agent. You know Ed, the guy you quote rather liberally when it suits you.

I suppose on reflection you are now a bit embarrassed about your doomsday scenario and tales of death and destruction. don't worry, if you're a good boy we'll all pretend it never really happened.

DXI, there are a lot of things it doesn't say in the GFA. True it doesn't say that certain people are required to disband. Likewise, it doesn't say that certain other people agree unconditionally to support the election of people who are closely associated with bank robberies and murders into government. If it did, I wouldn't have voted "yes" and I doubt many people would have, because the idea of the GFA was to create a framework in an environment where that kind of thing had stopped.

The IRA's ongoing activity has rendered the GFA out-of-date. We need to get back to all-party talks to see how that is going to be sorted out. That can't happen while Sinn Fein is attached to the IRA. If you call talks tomorrow morning, nobody will turn up except Sinn Fein. Not the Irish government, probably not the SDLP, nobody. That's the reality you will have to face.

I dare you to uote the paragraphs of the agreement regarding police which haven't been delivered and explain how. It's not that I regard the police as reformed, it's the fact that your hyperbole doesn't have any substance in the Agreement's text which made no hard promises about the police. Trying to get republicans to be specific about their standards for the police and what they require to take place before they will lend them their support, is quite difficult. This difficulty is exacerbated by the fact that they support (albeit distantly) the Gardai even though the Gardai have a record of raiding and harrassing republicans for what might be considered political purposes in the same way that the PSNI have. Special Branch are required to disband in NI, but not in the Republic. 50/50 recruitment is required in NI, but not in the Republic. Funny that.

I'm alarmed to see that you think that the problems with the PSNI are so serious that you can draw a comparison between them and what happened in the former Yugoslavia, it tells me that you don't have a serious grip on what is going on in this place. I won't apologize for the serious crimes committed by the police over the past 70 years but I can't see how remotely they come into proportion with the crimes committed by the republicans we are being asked to share power with, never mind the people behind events in Kosovo.

Isn't it strange how when dealing with paramilitary organizations which command the sympathy of a certain political party we have to "create the conditions" in which they can cease to exist, but yet the same people refuse to accept that measures need to be taken to create the conditions within which a regular civilian police force can exist. Don't you guys accept that there has to be give as well as take ?

Can you really remember the Mc Conville case?

I'm 50. I remember it. SF and it's stooges would rather it was forgotten, but to paraphrase Adams 'she won't go away, you know'.

Trenchcoats, so passe.

Like Support in America except among the Noraid riff-raff - the sort who buy the tat on your party website - TAL badges and Undefeated Army T-shirts ;) That's passe Pat LOL

Ted Kennedy doesn't know me.

His behaviour recently shows that he has finally come to know what you and your chums represent Pat.
He might not know you personally, but he now has your measure.

Davros,

'I'm 50. I remember it. SF and it's stooges would rather it was forgotten, but to paraphrase Adams 'she won't go away, you know'.'

You usually liberally quote Ed Moloney when it suits. In fact you are on another thread praising his work. Any comment on his smears?

'He might not know you personally, but he now has your measure.'

Lol, same mistake again.

Good to see you are letting the Davros Doomsday scenarion quietly die. guess you must have had a hangover or something.

No evidence for the smears I see. It's okay I realise what it is like for you to be carried along on a thread. You do have a bit of a tendency to post without thinking things through.

Can you quote where Moloney categorically states that McConville WAS a British agent Pat ? And follow on from that by justifying leaving 10 children orphaned and hiding her body for decades ?

Athboy Pat.

Davros,

'can you quote where Moloney categorically states that McConville WAS a British agent Pat ?,

Read his book Davros, the smear is obvious.

'And follow on from that by justifying leaving 10 children orphaned and hiding her body for decades ?'

I wouldn't even attempt to justify anh such thing.

'Athboy Pat.'

Lovely little town.

Christ XVII. Taking your last point first, I was not referring to all the events in Yugoslavia, I was referring very specifically to the Kosovo situation in the months before the bombing. The KLA (Kosovo Liberation Army) launched a rebellion not all that different from the IRA campaign here and the Serb police responded to attacks on them much like the RUC. The scale of events in Kosovo before the bombing started was not all that much greater than NI. The mass evictions started after the US/British bombing.

But my key point is that for years I listened to commentators insist that opposing British rule in NI was simple recidivism and that all over Europe borders were sacrosanct. Also that any attempt by The Republic to defend NI Nationalists would be in breach of settled International Law. The BRITISH bombing and invasion of Serbia made a nonsense of all that.

So, we are now left with the simple question - is the Unionist Police Force in NI acceptable to the democratically elected representatives of NI Nationalists (that's SF) and the answer appears to be no. The Irish Governments who 'stood idly by' are hardly in a position to dictate this matter!

And as to how bad the RUC are? Well about a thousand Catholic civilians were murdered in sectarian killings. It is clear some were killed directly by the RUC but many more killings were facilitated by collusion. How many? Who knows. As Judge Cory is discovering (and Stalker etc before him) we are unlikely to ever find out. So my guess is as good as yours.

And my guess is that most of the sectarian murders involved some degree of collaboration/assistance/coordination with the RUC/RIR/UDR/BA/Etcetera. So I can certainly say that nobody has the right to try and re-impose the re-named RUC on the Nationalist population until that population, it's will expressed through it's elected representatives, gives it's consent.

I am happy that SF hang tight until the election. Let us all accept the result. That is the best we can do in a flawed state such as NI.

can you quote where Moloney categorically states that McConville WAS a British agent Pat ?,

Read his book Davros, the smear is obvious.

That's backtracking Pat.I have read it. You CLAIMED that Moloney labelled her an agent. If it's there give me a reference otherwise admit that you are being less than truthful. Your antics over the McCartney murder are being wonderfully illuminated by this episode.

DXI, I don't know much about Kosovo so I won't try to deal with your implication that the aerial bombing precedent suggests an alternative way to deal with the NI policing deficit.

It's disappointing that you've responded to my question about "how should we correct the problem with the police" by ignoring it and talking about the evil things police officers did in the past. What purpose is served by having this discussion ? You may believe what you like about the police, I can't stop you (although you are undoubtedly badly misguided) but if you can't accept that the police can be reformed and changed, then why should anyone accept that republicans can be reformed or changed ? Republicans were responsible for more of the deaths than all of the other organizations - army, police, loyalists, etc - put together.

To get some accurate numbers into this discussion about death, a total of 1543 Catholics were murdered between 1969 and 1992. 381 of those were killed by republicans, 735 by loyalist paramilitaries, 266 by the army and 43 by the RUC (source - Fay, Smith and Morrissey "Northern Ireland's troubles"). Not all of these were civilians.

I wonder if the fact that republicans killed more Catholics than the RUC and the British army together, and a quarter of the sum total, might be a detail that you would stop to consider in your criticism of the police. Could it be that the level of death among civilian Catholics isn't as important to you as the pursuit of your political agenda ?

I am wondering how you think the collusion business could work efficiently given the role the police had in putting considerable numbers of loyalists in jail, starting with Gusty Spence and working through people like Lenny Murphy, the Shankill Butchers, Michael Stone, Billy Wright and Johnny Adair. Can you explain to me why those individuals would work alongside the police who simultaneously put them in jail ? Can you explain why the police themselves diligently pursued paramilitaries carrying out these killings instead of scuppering the investigations and allowing them to roam the streets ?

Davros,

in the Moloney book he states that Mrs Mc Conville was a low level agent for the British Army. At the time of the publication of the book the Family circle were furios at the allegation.

'Your antics over the McCartney murder are being wonderfully illuminated by this episode.'

Could you plese give me an example of what you mean, along with examples of other alleged smears.

in the Moloney book he states that Mrs Mc Conville was a low level agent for the British Army.

So you say pat...what page is this on ? I never take anything from SF or apparachiks on trust.Remember the statement about SF's man in Cuba ? ;)

CXVII “I won't try to deal with your implication that the aerial bombing precedent suggests an alternative way to deal with the NI policing deficit.” Did you completely miss my point or is that a little humour?

It's disappointing that you've responded to my question about "how should we correct the problem with the police" by ignoring it and talking about the evil things police officers did in the past. Not as disappointing as you implying I am suggesting an aerial bombing campaign in NI. But I do not wish to be prescriptive; when the democratically elected representatives of the Nationalists accept the policing arrangements that will be good enough for me. I believe a key requirement of theirs is the Full Patton. So we have a solution on the shelf? Your death toll figures hardly contradict my statement that “nearly one thousand” Catholics were killed in sectarian murders, so I take it you are just confirming what I said?

I wonder if the fact that republicans killed more Catholics than the RUC and the British army together, and a quarter of the sum total, might be a detail that you would stop to consider in your criticism of the police. No. I cannot see the relevance of that statistic. Republicans committed few sectarian murders.

Could it be that the level of death among civilian Catholics isn't as important to you as the pursuit of your political agenda ? My political agenda and the numbers of Catholics murdered in sectarian attacks in NI are two sides of the same coin.

How would collusion work? Come on man! With half over a dozen ‘security force’ paramilitaries in the field and as many ‘loyalist’ paramilitaries the details are probably complex and at varying levels. But we won’t know because the British Government are making sure we don’t. Best thing to do in these circumstances is disband the Security Services and start again.

And you ask “how can others be expected to trust the Republicans if they don’t trust the police?” - THEY DON’T. That is why they absolutely refused to integrate the IRA into the new police force, as is done in many post-conflict situations.

Republicans committed few sectarian murders.

What ratio of sectarian:non-sectarian murders do you consider acceptable ?

I do not consider ANY any sectarian murders acceptable.

DXI, what bits are missing from the full Patten implementation ? Which recommendations in particular were left out ?

"Republicans committed few sectarian murders."

You talk like murders which meet the definition of "sectarian" are the only ones which count. If we are talking about Catholics being murdered in significant numbers why does it matter whether they met their deaths through sectarianism or not ? You need to be careful about this. The McCartney murder was not a classic "sectarian murder" and your language would appear to some people to be carefully crafted to make an exception for such cases.

My question about collusion was more phrased to try to get you to explain how you think people can collude with people who are busy arresting them and putting in jail.

You can't seriously believe the integration of the IRA - an organization which robs post offices, runs guns internationally and launders money - has a role in any police service. I'm not talking about the recent controversial robbery but for example the Adare one, where IRA members in the midst of robbing a bank shot an Irish police officer. Or do you ?

I do not consider ANY any sectarian murders acceptable.

Oh? Then why try and praise the IRA by saying they only committed a few sectarian murders ?

Roger :

This speech should give you a start to answering your questions about no-implementation of Patten. All of the issues are not adressed, but I think you will find it to be a reasonable even handed appraisal from a learned speaker.

Implement Patten in Full -> Everyone supports the police -> Police go after the hoods -> Society gets better.

your language would appear to some people to be carefully crafted to make an exception for such cases. Gosh CXVII - so far you have had me threatening violence, advocating aerial bombing of NI, having hidden political agendas and now this.

The killing of Mr McCartney was a cowardly murder . You ask: You can't seriously believe the integration of the IRA - an organization which robs post offices, runs guns internationally and launders money - has a role in any police service.

But YOU seem to seriously believe that the Nationalist population of NI should BE FORCED to accept the imposition on them of members of a force involved in hundreds of sectarian murders of their friends and relatives, directly or by facilitation. I find your proposition extraordinary, frankly.

DXI- there is no obligation to implement Patten in it's entirety in the GFA.

Further information here.

Sorry :

Further information here.

I believe this to be the SF position.

Davros I wonder if the fact that republicans killed more Catholics than the RUC and the British army together, and a quarter of the sum total, might be a detail that you would stop to consider in your criticism of the police. That is what was put to me. I did not 'praise' the IRA for committing few sectarian murders. I merely stated the fact.

If you hopped about this site less and spent more time in careful reading I wouldn't have to explain everything to you twice.

DXI - You were enetering a plea in mitigation for the IRA's sectarian actions - so I'll ask again - at what ratio would you say the IRA would have lost the moral high ground which you are wrongly giving them ? Their claim to be protectors of catholics has been long gone, long before they slaughtered Robert McCartney.

Davros,

'So you say pat...what page is this on ? I never take anything from SF or apparachiks on trust.Remember the statement about SF's man in Cuba ? ;) '

you appear rattled, but chill out and if can get your hands on the book re read it.

No explanation for your remarks on the Mc Cartneys then. Wonder why?

No evidence of smears past or present then. Wonder why?

Thank you ShayPaul for the link.

DXI- there is no obligation to implement Patten in it's entirety in the GFA. No more than there is about disbanding the IRA. So let's trade?

Thank you ShayPaul for the link.

Davros "DXI- there is no obligation to implement Patten in it's entirety in the GFA." No more than there is about disbanding the IRA. So let's trade?

Still no proof from pat :) LOL.

YOU are the one claiming that Moloney stated in his book that she WAS an Army agent. So provide a page number or withdraw the claim Pat.

DXI: the IRA is an illegal organisation. There is no need to trade anything in respect of the PSNI which isn't an illegal organisation. Personally speaking the IRA going away isn't my main concern. I want them to decommission and stop breaking the law. No more robberies,no more abductions, no more beatings or shootings, no more exporting their terrorism round the world, no more conspiracies, no more kangaroo courts, no more recruiting kids and corrupting them.

Ooops! I appear to have been a bit repetitious - new to the site, apologies.

Davros, I was about to reply to your question when I was distracted by a statement you appended which I hold to be inaccurate - "Their claim to be protectors of catholics has been long gone, long before they slaughtered Robert McCartney." You have some evidence to back this up? After all did not 60% of the Nationalist population vote for them last time out?

Anyway, to the substantive matter: "DXI - You were enetering a plea in mitigation for the IRA's sectarian actions" I will accept that, yes. Though I wouldn't use the word 'plea' myself.

"so I'll ask again - at what ratio would you say the IRA would have lost the moral high ground ". They would only lose the high moral ground (as you reasonably put it) if it was IRA POLICY to engage in sectarian killings on a large scale in the way it was the policy of the Unionist murder gangs and their allies of all stripes.

After all did not 60% of the Nationalist population vote for them last time out?

No. You conveniently ignore that there wasn't a 100% turn-out when you make claims like that !

Thank you DXI for admitting that you regard some sectarian murders as having been acceptable.

Davros. I think we have already discussed the "legality" issue. The primary responsibility of a Government is to protect it's citizens and provide a proper police force. A police force and Government with a record of facilitating mass killing of it's citizens is, as I have explained, akin to the Serbian police in Kosovo. Their legitimacy falls.

Only full implimentation of the GFA can give the policing arrangements in NI legitimacy.

DXI,

As an American who has been trying to follow the situation since the GFA referendum passed in 1998, I wonder what specific aspects of the GFA have not been implemented?

Surely a plea of mitigation does not constitute acceptance? You are getting slightly wobbly now, most Governments in democracies throughout the world rule with less than 25% of the eligable population voting for them.

But if you wish to go down that route then given the demographics of the Nationalist vote in general and the SF vote in particular we can perhaps say, allowing for under 18s, that in fact nearly 70% of the Nationalist population supported SF last time out.

But it is much simpler to stick to the figures.

Alan McDonald

I am only at Chapter Two of my "Teach Yourself HTML" book so I can't do the link thingy! Follow the link posted by ShayPaul (above) at 7:56pm. It explains the situation.

Key point to bear in mind is that Patton was a compromise ; the security establishment and Unionists (same thing!) wouldn't wear it and the Southern Government capitulated.

The game now is to get SF to do the same.

*Alan, if 'the current media feeding frenzy' is sweeping us anywhere it is back into the troubles.*

As the above comment is clearly ill-considered, I will ignore the inherant threat.

Let's recognise that the criticisms faced by the Republican movement are criticisms of the IRA. The linkage (I'll accept that some self-serving people don't see a linkage.)with SF means that SF come under intense pressure as a by product. But I think it is key that other parties and the two governments are not saying abandon SF for good - they are, however, saying that the IRA must be laid to rest.

I see the pressure that the IRA is coming under as nothing other than positive for the peace process. The involvement of the IRA in violence, criminality and human rights abuses through kneecappings and Padre Pios made it inevitable. If we had not seen this level of fall-out now, it would have materialised at a later and possibly more critical date.

The vision is for a democratic journey towards peace, the next task has to be the disbandment of all paramilitiary groups. The media have lead on this and our politicians, including SF, must now take this forward. Who will miss the paramilitaries, bar their members and a few security correspondents.

DXI : in 2003 SF got 160,000 odd votes at the last NI election ...are you seriously saying that there are only 230,00 nationalist voters in NI ? LOL

SF: 160,000
SDLP: 111,000

There's 270,000 odd for starters which makes your claim that SF have the support of 70% nationalist electorate look rather silly. The electorate for the MEP election was over one million.

Alan from 8.50pm.I will repeat the reply I gave to an earlier respondent:

I am not making any threats for the simple reason that I am not a member of any political party or paramilitary or criminal organisation. I am not in any position to make threats, nor do I wish to be. I am somewhat indifferent as to whether people are persuaded by this case. I am giving my view on a likely outcome. And I would be obliged if you would avoid claiming that my speculation that violence may return is a "threat".
Maybe if you are not busy you could read the rest of the thread before talking rubbish. And I don't do ill-considered. Btw.

Hmmm. Davros. I'm sure you feel you are illustrating something though I'm just not sure what.

So the Unioist Parties combined (including Alliance,PUP etc) got 370,000 votes or 23% of the population. So can we conclude that 77% of the population are not Unionists? Excellent!

DXI - we can conclude that more than 70 % of the electorate, those eligible to vote , chose not to or were unable to vote for the DUP or UUP.

So your claim about 70% of nationalists voting SF is utter nonsense. Roughly 33% of those nationalists eligible to vote gave their vote to SF :) That's the honest version.

DXI,

RE: Implementation of the GFA. I follow the link and get an analysis of UK implementation of the Patten Report. From this, I infer that the specifics of implementation of the recommendations contained in the report issued by the Commission on Policing for Northern Ireland (see Annex of the GFA) is the only aspect of implemenation that you are objecting to. Am I correct?

I had heard in the past that there was objection to the fact that all 175 recommendations had not been adopted, but I was not aware that this was the only thing considered when it is said that the GFA has not been fully implemented.

Davros, you are becoming tiresome. It is reasonable to assume in a representative democracy that the proportion of votes is an indication of the proportional support the various parties. I never claimed 70% of anybody voted for SF. Check it out. In an earlier post I said that 60% of the Nationalist population voted for SF. I thought that was acceptable shorthand. I guess I didn't realise the calibre of intellect I was dealing with here.

Alan McDonald

The Commission on Policing for Northern Ireland produced a report commonly referred to as the Patton Report. This was regarded as a compromise between the two sides and it was expected it would be fully implemented. At the time the SDLP, Irish Government, opposition parties, most newspapers etc welcomed the report and when it became apparent that the British/Unionist side were not going to implement it there was a major campaign by the SDLP and the entire Southern establishment to get the "Full Patton" (as distinct from the "full GFA").

Under threat of rebellion (I assume) by key elements in the British and NI Security Services Blair pushed through a bill which fell well short of the "full Patton". When it became obvious that this was a done deal the Southern Establishment, as they always do, capitulated. The South brought major pressure to bear on the SDLP which then also capitulated. SF did not and to the horror of the South they were eclipsed by SF electorally, mainly as a result of the policing issue.

When SF became the dominant party of NI Nationalists the pressure on them to cave in intensified, and the longer they held out the greater the pressure. Now with elections looming the British/Irish Security/Political establishments are desperate to either force SF to capitulate before the poll or to try and destroy them politically.

The nightmare scenario is that SF will be re-endorsed by the Nationalist population of NI while they still refuse to accept the sell-out on policing. So while there are other complaints about the GFA, really, it is all about policing.

I must emphasise that I do not speak for SF, who may well have other objections to the implimentation of the GFA that I am unaware of.

In an earlier post I said that 60% of the Nationalist population voted for SF.

when did SF poll over 250,000 votes in NI DXI ?

You can try and deceive the casual visitors, I'll keep showing them you are being untruthful.

You find the truth tiresome ? Good.

"we can perhaps say, allowing for under 18s, that in fact nearly 70% of the Nationalist population supported SF last time out."

Last time out the electorate was over 1,100,000.
According to you nearly 70% of the nationalist component of that electorate supported SF ?

That is a whopping great lie :)

Roughly a third of the nationalist electorate supported SF ....nearly 70% didn't support Sinn Féin.

Davros old chap. I do not find the TRUTH tiresome, I find YOU tiresome!

According to you nearly 70% of the nationalist component of that electorate supported SF ?
That is a whopping great lie :)
Nope. That is a reasonable inference.

So you reckon I am trying deceive the casual visitors ? Man I just got here myself! Anyway I will leave the casual visitor to judge who is acting the pismire and who is Mr Gravitas.

DXI - the figures show you are telling porkies :)

You are trying to mislead people that SF have overwhelming support among the nationalist population of NI by claiming that 60% of the nationalist population vote SF. There are circa 500,000 voters in the nationalist population. SF have the votes of A THIRD of those Voters, NOT "nearly 70 % " as you claim.

Let's leave your dodgy inferences and look at the votes cast.

Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 2003

SF 162758
SDLP 117547

SF are sitting there with the vote of approximately a third of the nationalist electorate.

Man I just got here myself!

Where are my manners ? Welcome :)

SF are sitting there with the vote of approximately a third of the nationalist electorate.

Definition of the nationalist electorate: People who vote for nationalist parties.

Definition of the unionist electorate: People who vote for Unionist parties

People who vote neither nationalist nor unionist are entitled not to be counted as either.

Hmmm. Different numbers for the same election! Last time you said SF got 160k and SDLP got 111k. So you were telling PORKERS??? A whopping great LIE???

Tell you what. In deference to your endeavours I will only claim that SF represent 60% of the Nationalist population of NI. Unless you want to include under 18’s. In which case I only claim 65%. Seventy % was stretching. And you need to work on your euphemisms.

Henry 94. Folk who vote neither Unionist nor Nationalist are represented by the % of the non-Unionist and non-Nationalist votes cast. Tiny, in other words. Non-voters simply don't count in democracies. It's the worst system bar all the rest as the Warmonger Winston Churchill once said.

What I wrote :in 2003 SF got 160,000 odd votes.

So, No Porkies from me DXI :)

Now, how does 160,000 odd votes become between 60-70 % of 500,000 ?

It doesn't. SF have the electoral support of around a THIRD of the nationalist electorate.

Those are your definitions Henry. Carefully tailored to exaggerate the depth of support enjoyed by SF among the nationalist community.

Davros! What is odd about the SF votes? Quit the cheap shots. OK. I concede. It is only reasonable to claim that about 60% of the Nationalist population of NI support SF. (Not counting minors). Happy now?

Ooops! Screwed up the HTML again. I still have the Provisional licence.

DXI - I'm not sure from where you hail, but "160,000 odd" = "roughly 160,000"

It is NOT reasonable to suggest that 60% of the nationalist population support SF :) They only got the votes of a THIRD of the nationalist electorate !

Sinn Féin are supported at the ballot box by a MINORITY of the Minority in NI. IF they get 300,000 odd votes in May 2005 THEN you can claim that they are supported by roughly 60% of the nationalist population of NI :)

Davros

They are the only definitions possible. How can anyone be claimed as a unionist or a nationalist for vote counting purposes unless they vote for nationalist or unionist parties.

Sorry Davros. I'm from Silly Billyland. I am struggling to follow your logic and I really think you could be a bit easier on a newbie. You are trying to shoot me on the ground aren’t you? Before I can take off?

They only got the votes of a THIRD of the nationalist electorate ! (SF we are talking about here).

What really puzzles me then is - if the SDLP got even LESS votes than SF...than who got the rest of the NATIONALIST votes?????? Bloody scary when you look at it like that. Innit?

Nonsense Henry - according to you only those who vote for nationalist parties are members of the nationalist community and only those who vote for Unionist parties are members of the unionist community. That's a ridiculous claim.

I'm a member of the unionist community. I vote SEA and SDLP. That knocks your definition on the head .

Jeez! Eureka! I HAVE GOT IT!
Half of the Nationalist votes went to NON-NATIONALISTS! So obvious now. How could I have missed that?

Wait.....how come than that the non-Nationalists only got 23%? This is SO, like, difficult. Man, you must have the cranium of a petrodactyl to cope with this stuff.

I am really glad I found this site. I think I may nest here.

DXI - Plenty of the electorate don't support the antics of ANY of the politicians - either nationalist or Unionist.

The mathematics are simple. I'm using approximate figured for ease

Total electorate: more than 1,100,000

If we allow 45% of that 1,100,000 as members of the nationalist community, that takes us to around 500,000 nationalist voters.

SF's Total vote was 162,758

163,000 is roughly A THIRD of 500,000.

It's nowhere near between 60 and 70 %.

SF got the votes of a minority of the minority.

DXI

This is Northern Ireland I'm not quite sure of how much you really know about here.

1. There are 2 electorates one nationlist favouring a united Ireland and 1 unionist favouring a continued link with GB.

2. We have seen enough Belfast Telegraph opinion poles to know that the rough split of the electorate today is 40/45 pro United Ireland 55/60 pro the UK allowing for statistical inaccuracies.

3. If we take the the electorate at about 1.1m that would give the nationlist vote at somewhere between 440k and 500k

4. The SF vote was about 162k giving them between 32 and 37% of the nationalist pro UI vote, SDLP got about 23 to 27% of the same vote, so 45% of the vote stayed at home. (incidentally it could be argued that the non voters are more likely to be SDLP as SF tend to get its votes out, but I have no data to back that up)

5. This also means that SF represent about 16 to 19% of the total electorate not exactly a total that gives them a veto over the 80+% of the electorate who didn't vote for them.

Davros

You lie. I never mentioned the word community. Because you didn't. The word you used was electorate. That was the definition in question and I'll take your squirming as an acceptence that you were wrong.

Mmmmmm. Yep. So what you are really saying is the the turnout was 60%? Sheet. I KNEW that.

Vespasian. How can you presume to speak for people who DIDN'T VOTE? Surely they could all be Provos?

Henry - in the context of the discussion between DXI and Myself - we were discussing the nationalist population. DXI claims that 60-70% of the nationalist population support SF. I have shown that to be untrue.

What you tried to do was tippex out those people in our communities who don't support political parties.
That's disgracefully Stalinist of you.

DXI -

How many votes did SF get in that 2003 election ?

What was the total electorate elegible to vote ?

Assuming you accept that roughly 45 % of the electorate are nationalist community, what is the nationalist electorate ?

What % of that is the SF vote acheived in 2003.

You claimed between 60 and 70 %....
The figures show half that, approximately a third of the nationalist electorate supported SF.

Anyway, I'm off to bed, I'll bid you all farewell.

I'm already asleep Davo...zzzzzzzzzzzz! Nite.

Davros

Stalin always insisted on a 100% turnout. Any abstainers certainly wouldn't be around to abstain a second time. Like you it insisted on putting a political label on everybody. But at least you allow for two labels.

For me people can choose
or not choose their own.

I count votes and support in the way everybody in the democratic word does and they way you do except when you are talking about Sinn Fein.

Davros,

"So you say pat...what page is this on ? I never take anything from SF or apparachiks on trust.Remember the statement about SF's man in Cuba ? ;) "

Moloney did in fact say the McConville was a low-level British agent ... hard copy, first (American) edition ... page 125 ... second paragraph.

I just wanted to use this thread to apologize as a citizen of the US. When voters in the last NI Assembly election put SF and the DUP at the top of the polls, I said that the inmates had taken over the mad house. Last November here in America, we did the same thing. Today's shameful intervention by the US government in the Schiavo right-to-die case is proof that the rule of law is dead.

I'd just like to say that Gonzo's piece at the beginning was excellent. If the Dog Day reference was deliberate, does anyone think this may signal the possibility that the Police have some positive leads on who actually did the robbery?

If this does prove to be the case, then surely GA gets top marks for an elegant mid-play swerve!?