It will be Fermanagh and South Tyrone all over again, the DUP knowing they can't win the seat preferring to see it go to in this case the SDLP

The UUP have a tough fight on their hands.

Many unionists in South Belfast have waited for this day with worry as it becomes a divided Constituency where the two Unionists party's engage in bitter disputes of who is most popular.

The thing is that the DUP are eager to get control of this Constituency (as of most in N.I.), however they do not hold up a great proportion of the vote.

Martin Smyth was always able to hold a balance as a tradional Unionist. He is one of the last UUP 'old' boy's pushed to the sidelines, by a self-interested bunch of hypocrites. This represents the end on an era.

One of two things will happen:

[1] A split Unionist vote will allow Allaster McDonnell of the SDLP to get the seat.

Or [2] The middle-ground votes of South Belfast will rally behind McGimpsey to stop the DUP. As many middle-ground/unionist voters do in South Down in order to get McGrady elected. This is where McGimpsey hopes he will get support.

I actually think big Alisdair is past his sell-by date in this one , last time out he put a letter through every dooor on the eve of poll stating he was only 500 votes from winning the seat, I dont know how he could peddle this rubbish again, I feel SF with Alex Maskey at the helm will substantially close the gap between them and the SDLP and make this a 4 horse race, a very interesting one to watch

Can we please have some South Belfast opinion polls before the count to spot a pro GFA favourite early.

South Belfast has actually gone from being perhaps the least interesting race of the 18 to perhaps the most interesting. You'd still expect one of the unionists to take the seat but it's actually possible to see any of the four win it. (If the unionist vote splits evenly but either Maskey or, more likely, McDonnell won a substantil nationalist majority they could just squeeze home).

When was the last time a seat could genuinely have gone any one of four ways?

"The middle-ground votes of South Belfast will rally behind McGimpsey to stop the DUP. As many middle-ground/unionist voters do in South Down in order to get McGrady elected. This is where McGimpsey hopes he will get support."

If this is true, why is he attempting to toughen his stance in relation to the agreement?

The true voting figures were as follows:

McGimpsey 52
Montgomery 41
Stoker 9
Irwin 7

After elimination of Stoker and Irwin:

McGimpsey 62
Montgomery 47

Not a very impressive result for a former Stormont minister. The South Belfast association remains bitterly divided because of McGimpsey sitting in government with SF/IRA. Many of those elligible to vote last night have not paid dues for two years, and others were shuffled into different branches to maximise his vote.

I should mention that I left the UUP a few weeks ago. It is truly a shambles.

Is John Hidd the John Hiddleston who stood for the UUP in 2001 Local Government elections in Balmoral, if so John where did you go? and did you take your vote with you?

Christopher

So who's your candidate?

I hear Mark Robinson is looking for somewhere to stand.

If this is true, why is he attempting to toughen his stance in relation to the agreement?

I would agree with the point you are making Christopher. But the middle-ground voters (and most of those voters will be 'soft' SDLP voters) will back him no matter what he says, in effort to keep the DUP out. If this happens then McGimpsey will say he has got the Unionist people behind him, when Nationalists have actually saved him. Thats Unionism of today!

However I will emphasis that this may not happen, it is just a possiblity.

I would agree with the comment made above that McDonnell is past his time now. He has tried enough times previously to unseat Smyth and has failed on every occasion.

For those who think Maskey of Sinn Fein/IRA will do better than McDonnell - think again! The SF/IRA vote will increase slightly from the last General election, but not much. The fact is (and a Shinner has even made this point) that Maskey's vote is limited in the Constituency. The nationalist vote in Belfast South is more constitutional, that being SDLP orientated. There is a chance that Maskey's 2003 Assembly vote may even drop, due to his organisations continued committment to violence and criminality. The Robert McCartney murder has hit SF/IRA badly, on top of the Northern Bank robbery particulary in South Belfast. Alot of previously SDLP voters turned Sinn Fein at the 2003 Assembly election will think again and turn back to the SDLP.

So who's your candidate?

I hear Mark Robinson is looking for somewhere to stand.

Nah, it'll be Diane Dodd's.

Robinson is not Westminster material.

It will be interesting to see who the DUPs stand maybe Ruth "her majesty" Patterson, I still think Maskey will outdo McDonnell( tactical error on the SDLP part not to stand poll topper Hanna) but that a Unionist will still retain the seat, the DUP are in the same position as Sinn Fein in South Belfast 4 years ago i.e. no credible candidate, Robinson or Pattterson are no match for McGimpsey
anyone know if the bookies are giving odds yet?

Is there any evidence (in statistical or any other terms) that nationalists will generally vote UUP to keep the DUP ? Honest question, it sounds like a surprising idea to me.

..that nationalists will generally vote UUP to keep the DUP..

Oops, I mean keep out the DUP.

Visioner's right, Diane Dodds is the ideal DUP candidate for a constituency like South Belfast.

Reasons:

1) Woman Candidate - South Belfast once had a rare Women's Coalition seat.

2) Her mannerisms will appeal to 'softer' unionists. She isn't an 'all guns blazing' profile.

3) Her policies will appeal to 'tougher' unionists.

4) She pulled of the 'seat of the century' in West Belfast, she's got lady luck on her side.

What more do you want?

surely the DUP is going to run out of family members to run as candidates in future elections...then what!!!

I recall being present at a speech made by Mr IMC - Lord Alderdice where he stated that one of the biggest problems we had in Norn Iron was that no-one of any calibre would stand for election because of the tribal nature of our politics. These people are too busy taking their highly educated selves off to other countries or out to industry and we are left with 3rd rate wannabes. - My words not his I'm paraphrasing. I just wondered if anyone had an opinion on that. I don't entirely agree with him but I think it's certainly true in some cases. I find the obvious nepotism of some of the parties sickening and I think there should be a regulatory board for politicans - OFFPOL or something - to ensure their selection is fair and open and honest. Of course I realise that goes against everything a Politician is meant to be :-)

These people are too busy taking their highly educated selves off to other countries or out to industry and we are left with 3rd rate wannabes.

Some of us come back ;)

Before people get carried away with predictions, let's look at the last available figues for South Belfast - from the 2003 Assembly elections. These were:

UUP 27%
SDLP 23%
DUP 21%
SF 13%
NIWC 7%
All 6%
PUP 2%
Oth 2%

Bluntly, Sinn Féin have no chance here. This would have been a toughie for them even before they decided to put their dark side on display for the whole world. Before the 'peace process' began, SF's vote in this constituency was traditionally about 3%. Demographic changes notwithstanding, there are an awful lot of soft SF voters in this constituency. FWIW, both the McCartney murder and the Northern Bank raid took place in this constituency. Maskey could get a bit of a tanking here.

This makes it a three-way fight between McDonnell, McGimpsey and whoever the DUP run. Although most people around here (and most politicos in general) don't rate McDonnell, he has a good track record as a vote getter. Don't ask me why, but he does. In the 2001 General Elections he added a massive 6% to the SDLP's local government vote on the same day from tactical Alliance and SF voters and UUP voters disgusted with Martin Smyth. This despite Monica McWilliams polling 7.8% (more than Maskey) at the time. If McDonnell can continue to convince Alliance and SF votes that he's the right tactical choice, he is in with a real chance. If he can poll the 31% or so he polled here last time, he will almost certainly win.

McGimpsey however, must be the favourite. While the DUP have closed the gap in this constituency, the UUP have never been beaten by the DUP here. McGimpsey has a high public profile and topped the poll here in the last Assembly election. However, there is a real possibility that the DUP poll well enough to cost the UUP the seat but not enough to win it themselves.

Shares pride of place with Fermanagh South-Tyrone as the most interesting seat to watch in the General Election, but not a four way fight no matter what the Maskey groupies say.

Billy: "When was the last time a seat could genuinely have gone any one of four ways?"

Others have done much greater on this, but the closest four way marginals in Britain in the last 87 years are, according to David Boothroyd's brilliant site, http://www.election.demon.co.uk/34way.html:

Highland, Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 with 3.42% maximum separating the Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives and SNP.

Portsmouth, Central in 1922 with 5.39% separating the top four (I think there may have been Coalition vs Non-Coalition candidates confusing things).

Strathclyde, Argyll and Bute in 2001 with 9.08%

North Belfast has thrown up surprises - in 2001 there were strong predictions that any of the four parties could win it (none won more than one assembly seat in 1998). In 1979 the same seat saw victory for the DUP on only 27% of the vote.

Roger: "Is there any evidence (in statistical or any other terms) that nationalists will generally vote UUP to keep the DUP? Honest question, it sounds like a surprising idea to me."

Comparing the Westminster and local council elections from 2001 (held on the same day) indicates that a small but noticable number of peope who voted UUP for the councils voted SDLP for Westminster - possibly pro Trimble/GFA unionists who baulked at the prospect at voting for Smyth. Under the "anyone who votes SDLP or SF is a nationalist" definition they would probably qualify. More generally it looks like there are additional votes for the UUP to gain with a more amenable candidate (and votes to lose to a DUP challenge).

jimmyquickswipe

While Diane Doods would make a fine candidate the last I heard she has already been selected to run in West Belfast. She would be wiser staying there for two reasons:
1. Polticial - Consolidate the Unionist vote to maintain a Unionist assembly seat in that constituency.
2. Practical - The Unionist community in West Belfast has lacked full-time politcial representation for some time and there is a susbtantial body of work to be getting on with there. A task she has already heartily thrown herself into.

Visioner

Many 'soft' unionists were perfectly content to vote for Jim Allister at the European election.

Tim

"Comparing the Westminster and local council elections from 2001 (held on the same day) indicates that a small but noticable number of peope who voted UUP for the councils voted SDLP for Westminster"

Your analysis would be valid if all the DEA's were inside the Westminster boundary. Laganbank and Balmoral are both completely inside the South Belfast Westminster seat. But 2/3rds of Pottinger and about 1/10th of Castlreagh West is in East Belfast.

In these areas it is therefore impossible to draw a direct comparison between the two polls.

Now that Martin and his generation (the Clarkes, Margaret Crooks etc.) have gone, all that is left is a pro-Trimble rump. In these circumstances the Ulster Unionists are eminently beatable in South Belfast.

What the McGimpsey cabal don't realise is that it was solid Unionists like Martin and those around him (mentined above) who were the mainstay of the UUP and who managed to retain that traditional conservative/Orange UUP vote in the constituency.

Offer them a candidate like McGimpsey, I have every confidence those people will find the DUP a much more welcoming alternative.

fair_deal

Totally agree with you there about West Belfast if she stays there, particularly as well if the Assembly drops to 4 seats p/const. If she didn't stay, those reasons I mentioned above, I think, would be why she would be a good candidate.

You sound confident she isn't, no rumours of who might, I'd be sure it's already decided?

Young Fogey
Apparently the 2004 election tally in South Belfast now tells a different story, more favourable to the DUP. It used to be people said the DUP topped Euro polls just because Paisley stood, that's no longer the case.

Christopher: You're right that you can't get 100% accurate when the constituency breaches no less than 3 DEAs. But this is as near as you can get and I'm sceptical that there are significant differences in the other wards as to iron out this distortion.

Does anyone have on the ground evidence for this phenomenon?

Jimmy: The DUP campaigned fiercely on a "don't let Sinn Fein top the poll" line - in a single member election surely this factor was seen as more important? In any case only about 1/10 voters were tallied. The DUP may want to paint themselves as the leading Unionist party in South Belfast but they'll have to produce more credible results from more relevant elections.

Point(s) taken Tim, but I suspect this election may have a similar slant. I remember when Jeffrey Donaldson moved to the DUP, he spoke of the prospect of Sinn Fein topping the poll in the sense of having the most MPs in the next General Election. He pointed out the concern of not allowing that to happen.

one thihng is certain, whoever the stands for the dupes will not be locally selected. The Democratic Unionists arent so democratic as to let local people select their own candidates

Jimmyquickswipe

Sorry but I haven't picked up who the DUP intend to run. I got the info on the West Belfast nomination from a community worker in the North of the city who usually knows about these things so no info on who it will be only who it won't.

Although I was honestly told by a UUP member that the DUP were going to run Paisley Snr. I must track that person down to tell them to get better sources in future.

Time

"In any case only about 1/10 voters were tallied."

From my experience of tallies 1/10 is a good sample and I've never had a tally yet that was out by more than 2%.

"Visioner

Many 'soft' unionists were perfectly content to vote for Jim Allister at the European election.

Posted by: fair_deal"

True, true. But maybe thats because the UUP ran an unpopular candidate even though he was the only sitting MEP.

"Martin and those around him (mentined above) who were the mainstay of the UUP and who managed to retain that traditional conservative/Orange UUP vote in the constituency."

I would agree with Christopher. Either these voters will not vote at all or vote DUP, if they run decent candidate(s).

Lagan Bank ward (in Council) is probably up for grabs. The DUP may make a win here.

"Although I was honestly told by a UUP member that the DUP were going to run Paisley Snr."

That story was going around, along with the idea of Bob McCartney standing in SB.

However I do think that the UUP will hold the seat under McGimpsey. He is a 'local' lad and is well known.

The DUP may well use the usual agreement argument tactic, but the agreement is dead. That includes the Comprehensive one also.

Anyways - didn't the DUP sign up to the Belfast Agreement?

That's an interesting one about Bob McCartney, obviously, if true, a possible deal there to let Peter Weir run freely against LSH.

When did the DUP sign up to the Belfast Agreement, I must have missed that?

Visioner,

McGimpsey is not a "local lad". He is from Newtownards. He is well known as someone who happily sat in government with SF/IRA thugs.

I can confirm that the UUP's own tallies showed a majority for Jim Allister in South Belfast in the Euro-election.

Since the DUP vote of 21% in 2003 is a pretty solid base, the result is likely to be close.

I take the DUP's tallies with a pinch of salt ever since the DUP told me North Belfast voted No in the Referendum. A quick glance at the vote by party in North Belfast at every election since, oh, since God was a boy kind of disproves that.

That notwithstanding, they are in with a shout here, as are the SDLP. McGimpsey remains favourite in my book, though.

Young Fogey

Was the context of your conversation about North Belfast possibly in the context of how Unionists had voted?

The Times tally had North Belfast 43% No. If you consider the Unionist/Nationalist split in North and work on the assumption the vast majority of nationalists/republicans, this shows the Unionist community in North Belfast were massively anti-agreement. This has been borne out by the DUP trouncing the UUP ever since in that constituency.

at last!!! released from the bondage of typekey I am now free at last, free at last

"It will be Fermanagh and South Tyrone all over again, the DUP knowing they can't win the seat preferring to see it go to in this case the SDLP"...er not quite, alex s.

You SHOULD have written

"It will be Fermanagh and South Tyrone all over again, the UUP knowing they can't win the seat without selecting a candidate acceptable to a majority of Unionists, preferring to see it go etc etc"

Like Ken Maginnis' paranoid ramble in yesterday's News Letter, you presume that a party has a divine right to a seast. Well just because Colonel Bufton Tufton was MP in 1955 is not a reason to allow Tom Elliott a free run in 2005, and the UUP should realise that the only chance they have of saving one of these two seats for themselves (possibly doubling their total Westminster representation in the process?) is to do a deal. Are they being blackmailed? Perhaps- but's that's politics, and they pulled the same stroke on the DUP often enough from 1974 onwards to understand how it works.

The DUP usually backed down even though they were consigned to a poor second place in the Unionist pecking order. Now the positions are reversed, and the UUP hasn't the brains to see it's been made an offer it can't refuse. It deserves to die

BTW
I heard that William Humphrey was DUP candidate for Belfast W.

"McGimpsey is not a "local lad". He is from Newtownards. He is well known as someone who happily sat in government with SF/IRA thugs."

I thought that he was from Sandy Row? That is his main support base.

John - Were the DUP not willing to sit in government with SF/IRA last December? And before that the DUP sat side by side Trimble in the NI Executive with SF also. So...your point is what exactly?

The old form of 'traditional' Unionism has entered a new phase and even the DUP acknowledge it and support it.

david brew

William has not been selected for West Belfast for Westminster

"I thought that he was from Sandy Row?"

No he's not and his support base is not in Sandy Row.

I thought that he was from Sandy Row? That is his main support base.

Ha ha ha. Yeah, from Sandy Row to Trinity - they could make a film about it. Nope, Michael is a bit posh, and no-one with an accent like that comes from Sandy Row. Oh, and just because you cheer on a few hoods during a racist attack, doesn't make the area they do it in your support base.

Was the context of your conversation about North Belfast possibly in the context of how Unionists had voted?

They may have done, but that's not what they said... although I remember a certain wish to ignore non-Unionist votes from DUP supporters at the time!

I wouldn't read too much into the constituency figures in that Times poll. The sample size was, if I remember right, about 150 at constituency level which is simply meaningless. For example, that poll had the Alliance Party at 9% in West Belfast!

The total Unionist vote in North Belfast in recent elections has consistently been around 53% - on that basis the Times figure implies well over 80% of Unionists voting No. Simply not credible.

A better guide to how North Belfast voted might be gleaned from the 1998 Assembly Election results, where the Northern Ireland wide vote for pro- and anti-Agreement candidates closely matched the Referendum result. In North Belfast, 69% of voters voted for pro-Agreement candidates, and among those voting for Unionist candidates 42%. That seems like a more realistic assessment to me.

what we really should be asking is who the UUP have selected in North Belfast,South Down, Mid Ulster, and North Antrim. The answer is, of course, noone. Seems there is no money in N Antrim to waste and surprisingly noone prepared to be cannon fodder for the sake of a cushy seat next time , because, well there aren't any.

BTW, it would of course be a gross breach of faith to use this platform to shamelessly plug my new book* "The Sash Our Fathers Wore- Limavady Orangeism 1799-2004" ( available from me @ £10 + p&p) as reviewed below :

"- a rip-snorting tale of religion, drink, violence, and themmuns agin usuns and vice versa {but absolutely no sex whatsoever, no sirree}" -Michael Jackson

"What's the Orange Order again?"- David Trimble

"Just right for the wonky leg on my table"-Mick Fealty

"It is to academic research what I am to humility" -Jose Mourinho

" Too cheerful- particularly the bits about death and injuries. "- Michael McGimpsey

*So I won't. :0)

Phew that was a close call

Christopher has been very quiet about who the DUP candidate is... so I bet its him!

If it is, given his relatively young age and lack of experience in the political chambers, would that not indicate that the Westminster campaign is more of a profile-raising exercise for his Council bid, possibly with an eye to the next Assembly or following Westminster election?!

If Christopher is the candidate, it would seem to me to indicate that the DUP is prepared to wait until they take this seat.

All just a hunch, but time will tell!

Oh, I love stirring... :o)

davidbrew

LOL at your LOL!

:op

"William has not been selected for West Belfast for Westminster"

Are DUP candidates actually selected by a vote in meetings like UUP candidates are? I heard they were appointed

Young Fogey:

You really should read the posts if you wish to learn. I said that the UUP's own tallies gave Jim Allister a majority of unionist voters in South Belfast in the Euro-election. It is not necessary to rely on DUP figures.

Visioner:

Michael McGimpsey lives in Newtownards. He is permitted to be a member of South Belfast only by special dispensation of the Trimble-controlled Executive.

As I understand it, the DUP were prepared to sit with democrats only. By using the term SF/IRA, you acknowledge that Republicans were not prepared to give up their terror wing.

But your point opens up the intriguing possibility that the DUP may attract some pro-Agreement votes, placing Trimble in an even weaker position.

"By using the term SF/IRA, you acknowledge that Republicans were not prepared to give up their terror wing."

John -

Trimble went where Sinn Fein/IRA thought Unionism wouldn't go. He attempted to play with their propaganda machine.

If Trimble hadn't shared power with them what would Sinn Fein/IRA be saying about Unionist's - "This demonstrates Unionist's non-committment to powersharing and failure to recognise the right of the nationalist people of ireland to self-determination." - Unionism would have been ignored for another while by our own government! Republicans and Nationalists would have the football.

I can sympathise with what some Unionists said at the time and especially today - but do you not understand what Trimble's reasons for doing this were at the time? He put Republicans to the test and did what they thought Unionists wouldn't do - and thats share power.

Even the DUP recognise today (at last, after 6 or more years!) the necessity of dealing with Sinn Fein (and yes that includes the IRA.) They have only found this out by being in the driving seat.

Its easy for any political opposition to snipe away at the sidelines when their not in the driving seat. But when they do eventually make it there, its a different story.

However this doesn't mean that the UUP and Trimble are saints - the fact is that they did the impossible and didn't explain clearly or effectively to the Unionist electorate why they did it. They did not do a good job at selling what they did. This is what the DUP (to date) are very good at.

- and here come the snipes and accusations.... :-o

Visioner:

Even the DUP recognise today (at last, after 6 or more years!) the necessity of dealing with Sinn Fein (and yes that includes the IRA.)

(Posted by: Visioner at March 1, 2005 10:02 PM)

Apart from being off-thread, you appear not to have noticed that no-one, north, south, east or west is prepared to deal with these thugs at the moment.

Rebecca

The DUP do hold selection meetings.

However, its centre i.e. Executive has much more power and control under its constitution so as far as I understand it the Executive can overrule a selection. In areas with a history of schism the Executive has on occassion chosen the candidates. (It helps them avoid having to expel entire constituency associations like the old UUC constitution required).

This is what I've picked up as a non-member. I'm sure if I'm incorrect a DUP member will put you straight.

"William has not been selected for West Belfast for Westminster"

If the DUP and the UUP have any political sense, between their ears, they should not put up any candidate in West Belfast. Instead they should both canvass amongst all Unionist (DUP & UUP) voters and request they vote for the SDLP.

Removing the Westminister's seat of the leader of SF would be a tremendous blow to the Shinners at this particular time. After all the UUP or the DUP will never win West Belfast.

Lorre

Lorre

While that may have once been possible the growth in the Sinn Fein vote and the decline of the SDLP vote in West Belfast means that even a jointly supported SDLP/Unionist candidate could not take the seat.

Thanks fair deal, that sounds likely enough.

lo_rre

having unionists canvassing for the SDLP will damage the SDLPs credibility even more than it already has been damaged. Even attacking Sinn Fein helps Sinn Feins vote. The mechanics of the nationalist vote can only be sorted out by nationalists.

What about not putting up any UUP or DUP candidates in West Belfast and let the Unionist voters work that one out for themselves that a vote for the SDLP is a vote against SF, whereas a vote for a UUP or DUP candidate is totally lost.

One doesn't have to canvass to get the word across. Smoke messages or banging biblids could always do instead.

Lorre

Standing a candidate in no win areas is used to exercise a party's votes for future elections and also to achieve an up to date poll. It keeps the electorate 'oiled' so to speak.

E.g. standing in West Belfast will also influence to a degree who comes out and votes for the local election candidates.

Lorre

Sinn Fein have polled more than 50% of the votes in West Belfast for over a decade. At the last Assembly election they got 65% of the vote. Even if all the other parties endorse one candidate Sinn fein will still romp home.

I said that the UUP's own tallies gave Jim Allister a majority of unionist voters in South Belfast in the Euro-election.

The UUP's tallies are worth about as much as their promises. Sorry.

in the 1999 euro electio n the DUP took 194,000 votes to the UUPs 119,000

Come 2001 the UUP had 216,000 votes to the DUPes 186,000

so if you follow that trend the DUP once again will fall at the big one come may 5th

in the 1999 euro electio n the DUP took 194,000 votes to the UUPs 119,000

Come 2001 the UUP had 216,000 votes to the DUPes 181,000

so if you follow that trend the DUP once again will fall at the big one come may 5th

Jonty: eh what, in the general election? Neither the DUP or UUP stood in all constituencies, there was a lot of tactical voting in 2001, hardly hard data.

Jonty:

If that's the extent of your electoral analysis, you must be one of the staff at Cunningham House.

The DUP's victory in the Euroelection (even without Paisley as candidate) was so comprehensive that it beat the UUP in every seat, including South Belfast. For election anoraks, the UUP tally there was:

Allister (DUP) 29%
Nicholson (UUP) 23%

Granted that Euro results do not become GE results, but certainly there is a case for suggesting the UUP candidate stand down.
Remember the predictions that only Paisley could get such a big vote?

Note that the overall unionist vote was not far ahead of the nationalist.

Johnhidd

Given that the UUP sent only one person along to the South Belfast verification count for the European election, and that this person was given his figures by me, might I suggest that the percentages you have been given are a wee bit skee-wiff?

The true tally result for South Belfast (based on smaples of at least 50, from every box, bar 2) was:

Allister: 33%
Nicholson: 19%
Morgan: 23%
DeBrun: 13%
Gilliland: 9%
Oths: 3%

"having unionists canvassing for the SDLP will damage the SDLPs credibility even more than it already has been damaged."

As well as damaging the credibility of those Unionist who do it.

"As well as damaging the credibility of those Unionist who do it."

Since when has credibility got to do with tactical voting, when it could be a good chance to knock the leader of SF off his westminister seat. Even if it failed, an increase in votes for SDLP in West Belfast will make Shinners even more uneasy at this present moment.

The problem with the UUP and the DUP is, they have always done tactical voting amongst themselves, for selfish reasons, when here is a chance to play games with Nationists against Republicans, in West Belfast, and even in Mid Ulster & South Down.

What happened in Fermanagh- S Tyrone last election was a Joke. The same thing could happen again in S belfast this election. It was like Generals Patton & Mongomery fighting over who is going to be the superior general, and Rommel moving in to win the day and the battle with less men and material.

Lorre

you clearly don't understand unionism lo_rre, its tribalism within tribalism.

Why anyone would beleive a word , let alone tallies , from the DUP is beyond me
This is the party which promised to smash sinn fein, only last year their leader told the world that sinn fien would have to disband as a policitcal party before being included in talks, This is the party that was willing to let the IRA continue in existence in order to get into a permanent power sharing government with them

yep, the DUP seem much more interested in smashing the UUP than smashing Sinn Fein

er, unfortunate typo by Rebecca there. What she meant to say was

"yep, the UUP seem much more interested in smashing the UUP than smashing Sinn Fein" :0)

How appropriate that today the UUP is laying wreaths on the graves of its former leaders, in the hope that this will stop the earth churning as several caskets spin furiously as the occupants see a 100 year journey peter out in this squalid clique of Turtle worshippers final fling.

If Lemon and co think invoking the names of Carson, Craig and Brookeborough will help the present leadership then they should be told that all they're doing is highlighting the contrast. Like most centenarians, they belong in a nursing home, with a nice cup of tea and an ear trumpet.

davidbrew

"If Lemon and co think invoking the names of Carson, Craig and Brookeborough will help the present leadership then they should be told that all they're doing is highlighting the contrast."

Absolutely spot on. BTW. am I the only one who finds the idea of laying wreaths a bizarre way to express confidence in the future of the UUP? Ned Carson and James Craig have no more in common with Trimble-ism than I do with Communism!

I think the laying of wreaths in 2005 will be more symbolic with the death of the UUP in 2005 than the commemoration of it's founders. Maybe the wreath laying should be around mid May.

jimmy

Absolutely!

The main aim of the DUP in standing a candidate in West Belfast is to activate the Unionist vote.

It may be more a tactic of statistics rather than actually getting a candidate elected. If the DUP have the money and time to field a candidate then fair play to them.

Even if a Unionist candidate didn't run inorder to give the SDLP a clear enough shot at it, they don't have much of a chance. Sinn Fein has large base in this constituency. It may be refered to as 'the heart of Irish Republicanism'. It has always been the way it is, apart from the few times a Unionist candidate was actually elected around the 1950s.

One thing I do have a problem with and feel sorry for the people of West Belfast is that they don't have a representative to represent them when it comes to day-to-day constituent problems.

I heard of someone whos relative was visiting from abroad and they became sick. They went into hospital and had to get a temporary visa. When that ran out they came into difficulties with the Home office. They went to find out who their MP was, and was ofcourse Mr Adams, who was ofcourse of NO help. They ended up sorting it out themselves.

Christopher Stalford:

"Given that the UUP sent only one person along to the South Belfast verification count for the European election, and that this person was given his figures by me, might I suggest that the percentages you have been given are a wee bit skee-wiff?"

Verrrrry interestink! Perhaps the person in question has been somewhat economical with the truth. I will be interrogating him at the weekend...

That is even worse news for Michael McGimpsey. He will be known as the man who lost the seat for the UUP, a la James Cooper.

Lorre

PLEASE PLEASE go to the Northern Ireland election website. What you are arguing for in West Belfast just plain wrong - there are not enough Unionist and SDLP votes to stop Sinn Fein.

james cooper did not lose F&st it was the DUp and their support for a candidate who wanted Sinn FEin to have the seat rather than the UUP

..er I think if you look at the result you'll find Jas did lose, jonty.

And if the DUP wanted SF to have the seat rather than the UUP , why did they offer to support Arlene as a candidate from ... the UUP ?

Time to get the message. Unionists are told to unite but when one party selects a candidate so objectionable that many Unionists will not vote for him, then that party is playing with fire. It is arrogantly assuming the vote of every Unionist is its as of right.

Let's suppose the UUP, in its desperation for a candidate in 2001 selects Johnny Adair for North Belfast and then tells all Unionsts it is their duty to vote for him, and if they don't they are guilty of handing the seat to SF. Who is to blame if many Unionists can't or won't support him? In your judgment they are responsible. In the real world everyone would blame the party.

THAT'S what happened in F & ST, and will happen in S Belfast if the only Unionist is Mr Grim

davidbrew,

So the DUP should have the door open for them to do whatever they want.

Both Parties are as bad as each other but the DUP are playing here.

If one Unionist is put forward in South Belfast and it was a DUP candidate, then they would win. The same thing if the UUP candidate is allowed to stand as the only Unionist candidate. But the fact of the matter is that the DUP will put a candidate up anyway, out of spite and pure arrogance. They are a party of selfish beings.

Yes, they may be the main party of Unionism in N.I., but they cannot hold up a good vote in South Belfast. People use this argument of the European elections and how well the DUP did in SB, but I think that this argument is limited in how you use it.

Jim Allister was a better candidate, Nicholson was not. Allister put the argument across effectively on where he stood on Europe, where Nicholson did not. Yes, maybe some UUP voters voted Allister, but I don't tthink that they are true DUPes. Also the argument could be used that the UUP voters did not turn out, after all its the European elections where Unionists usually don't turn out.

"Jim Allister was a better candidate, Nicholson was not."

(Posted by: Visioner at March 4, 2005 10:51 AM)

Absolutely correct, but Nicholson should have established himself after so many years as MEP, while Jim Allister was expected to underperform Ian Paisley.

Suggests the DUP will do very well in the May election.

arelene foster was not the selected candidate james cooper was, Unlike the DUP the UUp still operates on a democratic basis and allows local memebrs to select their own candidates without fear of having the who branch or association suspended.

The fact is the DUP would rather have sinn fein take any seat than it go to the uup, after lall the DUP are ready to go back into talks with the provos after teh election and still leave the IRA intact, just to get their grubby hands into the stormont gravy train

As been stated in the past, and as a principle of democracy, one party hasn't the divine right to a seat.

Unionism is a family of strands of opinion, not a single mindset. No matter your position on devolution, Sinn Fein, the agreement etc etc. the best common denominator in F&ST is still one Unionist candidate. To choose that unionist candidate, the parties already mandated should collectively with all of their opinions, pick the lesser of their evils to get that right candidate.

I.e for the DUP, although not a DUP candidate, Arlene Foster was anti agreement. With the UUP, although not pro-agreement candidate, at least she was a UUP member. That everyone, is compromise. That everyone was rejected by individuals who had more personal goals, and that's why today we have what we have.

the DUP are saying they wont enter government will sinn fein remains armed, but will enter into further talks while they hold onto their weapons

wonder if the voters will notice, i think so

I think the DUP(or perhaps just their supporters on this site)are misjudging the mood of the electorate. There is no huge enthusiasm for their position. They are compromised.

Their electoral success was based on frustration and on the premise that the DUP could deliver changes. The didn't. The new deal was just the same as the old deal. When the opportunity arose they were just as keen to jump into government with SF/IRA.

As for being brilliant negoitators. They didn't achieve anything and I don't think they will.

Direct rule is the only option. Meanwhile the schools get stuffed, the hospitals get stuffed, manufacturing gets stuffed, the environment gets stuffed.

What's the plan DUP? How do we move forward.

"Unlike the DUP the UUp still operates on a democratic basis and allows local memebrs to select their own candidates" - jonty March 5, 2005 11:47 AM

Tell that to the previous members of the North Down association who selected Peter Weir in good faith only to see their selection overturned by trumped up disciplinary charges. Lady S only got a second chance when Peter had been pushed off stage by UUP HQ. Some local democracy.

Just a few other points, Michael McGimpsey is anything but a "local" lad. This constituency has been in his sights for a long time sinc ehe worked out that Strangford was never going to be his. He became a councillor in 1997 and has since been trying to build up a strong enough support base to get him in this position. In the run up to the 2001 Election, his supporters tried to get the selection rules changed as they had been busily recruiting members in certain rotten branches without the officers of the association knowing. They failed to achieve this and Smyth's position was secured and the seat stayed unionist. I left the UUP in South Belfast 3 years ago but I can still remember the bitterness of that time. As the 2003 results and the 2004 tallies have shown, as far as unionism is concerned, South Belfast is up for grabs. With the rise of SF, which the latest problems will not halt, this is going to be a very closely run 4 horse race. McDonnell is not the ideal SDLP candidate and this will also ensure that this isn't a simple "two unionist split the vote - SDLP in" scenario.

If the UUP believe that their message is so right for this constituency then what are they afraid of with all this scaremongering.
UUP - you are no longer the natural party that unionists turn to. Get used to it.

"Tell that to the previous members of the North Down association who selected Peter Weir in good faith only to see their selection overturned by trumped up disciplinary charges. Lady S only got a second chance when Peter had been pushed off stage by UUP HQ. Some local democracy."

Ok, so it was okay for Peter Weir to behave in the way he did.? I understand that the people at Cunningham House are no saints, but Weir had no allegance to the party, he completely broke the line. He was a complete and utter rebel.

The fact is that the UUP, as with any political party in the same position would have done the same thing and had the right to do so.

If Peter had gone onto the election and won, there is no doubt it would have been a DUP seat soon after the election.

Sylvia Hermon is a hard working, dedicated and down to earth politican.

Weir is a toad.

Regarding McGimpsey's 'local'ness. Many people have commented that it is precicely Michaels un-localness (if there is such a word) which allowed him to be elected. To put it another way, he would be known too well in Newtownards to stand a chance of being elected there.

South Belfast will be one of the contests of the election. Not sure about Diane Dodds running, but no doubt a name will pop out of the hat somewhere along the line - the DUP have a wide enough selection of people to choose from - compare the '2nd teir' of the DUP to the equivalent (if there is one) of the UUP. The DUP have a much greater strength in depth to work from these days.

Will we see Martin Smyth out canvassing for McGimpsey? I very much doubt it, and I doubt he will even give endorsement to McGimpsey's candidature. Its a question of what, if any, even tacit backing he gives to the DUP candidate. Even a whiff of being Smyths preferred candidate could also help the DUP with a lot of the older traditional UUP voters in the area.

The situation regarding an electoral pact in this area is nearly a mirror-image of Fermanagh South Tyrone in 2001. Somehow the UUP seem to think that an "agreed" candidate actually means one which the UUP impose on both sides. The offer was made in both cases for the DUP to stand aside should an agreeable candidate be found which could fight the constituencies with a single candidate. In both cases it seems that the UUP so despise their unionist colleagues that they go out of their way to select the one person who is most likely to rub DUP voters noses in it.

Ken Maginnis really seems to have lost the plot with his rantings in the papers - but I feel this is symptomatic of the state of the Ulster Unionist Party - harking back to past glories and totally ignoring the mood of the people today in 2005. Is it just me or has the sight of the UUP laying wreaths at the graves of people like Carson and Craig, as well as highlighting the impending death of their party, not just put in stark contrast the calibre of today's UUP leadership compared to people like Edward Carson. I very much doubt that there will be too many statues ever erected of Dermot Nesbitt and Michael McGimpsey!

Visioner
"Weir had no allegance to the party, he completely broke the line. He was a complete and utter rebel."

I very much doubt you can say that anyone who had been a member of a party all their adult life had no allegiance to it. However, it is clear that he broke the UUP Party line on many occasions - that however simply highlights the fact that his primary allegiance was to Northern Ireland and the Union, not to the policies of David Trimble.

I always though the UUP was a 'broad church', at least that;s how they like to sell themselves. It obviously wasnt broad enough for anyone who dare question the mighty intellect of D Trimble.

"Sylvia Hermon is a hard working, dedicated and down to earth politican."

This is a woman who spends the vast majority of her time swanning around the bars and restaurants of Westminster and is never seen on the ground of her constituency. As for her being down to earth, what planet are you on? Sylvia Hermon is one of the least down to earth people you could ever have the misfortune to meet. Lets not forget the resentment amongst UUP members which was vented publicly recently after her little spat regarding Direct Rule vs the Assembly with the UUP Assembly team. One UUP (pro-Trimble) MLA put was quick to ask her who she thought she was after having joined the UUP one day and being parachuted into the constituency the next day. He also questioned her knowledge of what was going on.

"Weir is a toad"
Man not ball? But i think you sum up the quality of your analysis with that one short comment.

Will
So it's OK for you to use invective but not Visioner.

As a matter of interest, what is your opinion of candidates who stand for one party and then switch to another after an election?

When Martin Smyth announced he wasn't continuing, he was drawn on his successor. He responded to words of the effect that he would be supporting a unionist candidate who represented traditional unionist values who didn't appease Sinn Fein. He didn't explicitly give his backing to the succeeding UUP candidate. Since then Michael McGimpsey has been selected. I'm sure the diplomats amongst you can work out the rest.

Are DUP candidates actually selected by a vote in meetings like UUP candidates are? I heard they were appointed

Rebecca you shouldn't believe everything you hear!

Weir had no allegance to the party, he completely broke the line. He was a complete and utter rebel.

Weir like all UUP MLAs faced the choice between loyalty to the electorate and loyalty to Party policy - the decision to choose the former over the latter was understandable

If Diane Dodds isn't in the running, how about the Mayoress of Castlereagh BC?

My guess is that the DUP will make an announcement next week, as they have given the UUP five days to agree a pact with them.

Realistically, I think Diane Dodds will be the DUP candidate, assuming they run one...

"faced the choice between loyalty to the electorate and loyalty to Party policy - the decision to choose the former over the latter was understandable'

whereas you didn't Peter?!?

what about your electorate? Are Weirs more important?

the difference is with the DUP, party policy and the electorate are on the same wavelength.

"If Diane Dodds isn't in the running, how about the Mayoress of Castlereagh BC?"

According to the Sunday Life today, my prediction was right. (Though there is an error stating 'North' instead of 'South' Belfast.)

The DUP didn't allow her to be so prominently photographed in the quite recent Newsletter photo shoot of a DUP dinner for nothing.

Jimmyquickswipe

I'm prepare to wager that both you and the Sunday Life are wrong. I'm sure you only have a couple more days to wait.

Jimmy,
I'd be happy to side with amarillo and bet you whatever money you are happy to wager that the Mayor of Castlereagh will not be the candidate.

Give it a few days and undertaker McGimpsey will have even less to smile about!

No bother, but it wasn't a bad stab in the dark!

I agree with you about the way you view the issue. I remember, long time ago, Jack London said something like "Everything positive has a negative side; everything negative has a positive side." I also find it interesting to see different points of views and learn useful things in the discussion.

Posted by: Richard Hill at May 22, 2005 08:59 AM

"Give it a few days and undertaker McGimpsey will have even less to smile about!"

Why wouldn't he have less to smile about when the former UUP president and South Belfast MP the Rev Martin Smyth supported the DUP's Jimmy Spratt in South Belfast.and in doing so sold a safe Unionist seat to the Nationalist SDLP.

This will go down in the history books as the greatest act of deceitful treachery by a former MP (and his band of followers) on their own political party.

I hope the cowardly b**tards are happy they just robbed their own party of £130,000 (expenses given to all parties who have two MP's) Which means they helped close down their own UUP central office Cunningham House.

If they had picked Montgomery, the DUP would not have stood against him. If having ignored this and picked McGimpsy, they had accepted the pact from the DUP, they could still have had the seat, (this is on the assumption that at least some of those who voted for Spratt could bring themselves to vote for him).

Although in this case the arrogance and stupidity of the F&ST UUP were probably the sticking point.

I do feel sorry for those who have lost their jobs in the UUP, they are possibly the innocent victims of the UUP leadership.

"If they had picked Montgomery, the DUP would not have stood against him."

Since when have the UUP to go against their own DEMOCRACY ( a vote taken by the SB association) and pick a dark horse (nobody ever heard about) just to please an AUTOCRATIC party like the DUP.and a load of judases within the UUP.

What happened within UUP circles in South Belfast was totally preposterous. All are waiting to see who gets the 30 pieces of silver paid out in peerages in the next honours list. by Paisley, while the staff at Cunningham House get the sack.

Gearge2

I think someone else said when McGimpsey got the UUP nomination for South Belfast he got what he had always wanted - on Polling Day he got what he always deserved!