My sense is that the Republican movement and the IRA would have been best served if they had just moved ahead and decommissioned under the view of Catholic and Protestant observers, even if that did not satisfy Paisley's proof of photographic evidence.

Such courageous action would have placed the spotlight on the DUP's intractability, and would have made it very difficult for the British and Irish Governments to have denied Republicans all they had bargained for during the late negotiations.

Now, it appears the process is nowhere, thanks largely due to the subsequent bank robbery, the accusations and the latest IRA withdrawal.

The commentary is an interesting analysis that suggests the IRA loses regardless of which way it chooses to move forward, and it may be correct.