BTW I assume it's the cops that will be shocking us. When? How many volts?

"The lifelong outsider now leads unionism" according to the Guardian and, echoing Malachi O'Doherty's Belfast Telegraph piece from a few weeks ago, points out that "any agreement must carry Paisley's stamp if it is to be sold to the unionist people".

But it's not all soft-focus for Ian Paisley Snr. The article carries quotes from an unnamed 'Northern Ireland office official', "Where there's death, there's hope", and from Roy Garland, "He would like to be seen as a responsible, constructive, almost statesmanlike figure but he hasn't been either responsible or statesmanlike for most of his life".

Ian Paisley Jnr is, not unexpectedly, more supportive - "Most of all, he doesn't want his legacy to be a bad deal. He wants the right deal with the right people at the right time. He doesn't want a settlement with Republicans, he wants a victory for peace."

It further suggests the DUP has mismanaged its constituency's expectations of a deal, that Adams might look in that area for further advantage over Unionism:

"...should Adams decide to play for high stakes, he would either come away with a deal or he would have revealed a great weakness in the DUP liberals - their inability to deliver the whole party and the more sceptical half of the unionist electorate. Both scenarios must have their attractions for Sinn Fein".

But does it suit Adams's purpose at this stage to expose DUP liberalism as a will-'o-the-wisp? The likelihood is that he will be indulgent for a little while yet. If he reveals that there is no prospective DUP bride he closes off the possibility of the Lord changing that situation".

There's no byline on the internet version. Does anyone know who the annonymous analyst is?

By Gary Kent

Northern Ireland’s peace process is moving like a glacier towards a final settlement with key talks between the major players taking place this weekend in Leeds Castle in Kent. The pessimists seem to have history on their side.

It is ten years since republican and loyalist paramilitary organisations declared their ceasefires. It is six years since the historic Good Friday Agreement was endorsed by 85% of the people of the island of Ireland in concurrent referendums, north and south of the once hotly contested border.

As a result traditional foes eventually agreed to share power but the local devolved Assembly and Cabinet were suspended two years ago amid allegations that the IRA was spying on the British and Irish Governments, gun-running from Florida and consorting with narco-terrorists in Colombia.

The suspension was then followed by elections which produced victories for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), led by Reverend Ian Paisley, and Gerry Adams’ Sinn Fein, which are seen as representing the extremes in Northern Ireland.

The sticking point throughout has been the issue of the decommissioning of illegal paramilitary arms. The Good Friday Agreement envisaged that this would be completed in two years but so far only an unspecified amount of republican arms has been put beyond use.

The exact quantity or proportion of the total armoury that has been decommissioned and how remain completely unknown, except to the former Canadian Defence Chief General John De Chastelain who cannot divulge these details.

Such secrecy combined with continuing republican paramilitary activity sapped the confidence of the pro-British majority, undermined their leader and former First Minister David Trimble and drove many of his voters into the arms of Ian Paisley.

Paisley’s party demands complete disarmament, possibly witnessed by their representatives and filmed (the “Spielberg option”) as well as a period of decontamination before it shares power with Sinn Fein. In addition, the DUP has always opposed the Agreement and wants to renegotiate key elements of it.

It is against this background that all the main players plus the British and Irish Governments are meeting this week at a plush castle in Kent in England to seek a final settlement. The Governments insist that they have no Plan B, an alternative to the Agreement, and are equally insistent that the paramilitary groups must complete the process of disarmament.

All parties say that a deal is possible. None of them wants to be blamed if proves impossible. But key British and Irish opinion-formers agree that Sinn Fein (and hence the IRA) and the DUP cannot reach a deal at this stage. It’s probable, however, that some progress will be claimed and that the meeting in Kent will be portrayed as the beginning of the end.

In the bad old days, this could have led to credible talk of calamity and the possibility that the IRA would return to war. But everyone agrees that there is absolutely no possibility of it taking up arms against the British State. The idea of a terrorist campaign has been destroyed by the fall-out from 9/11. Anyone who planted bombs to kill scores of civilians, as they used to do, would be damned forever and their electoral support would evaporate.

One commentator says of this now empty threat from the IRA: "you and whose army." And the republican movement has moved a long way. Catholics were once liable to be shot for assisting British soldiers. This summer a senior Sinn Fein figure and former IRA prisoner saved the life of a paratrooper who could have been lynched by a nationalist mob. This is a remarkable milestone for Irish republicans.

There is a common assumption that it is only a matter of time before the IRA decommissions all its weapons, endorses the new policing service in Northern Ireland and the IRA becomes an old comrades’ organisation. Sinn Fein representatives are very clear that the IRA will go but are determined to exact the maximum price for such a concession.

It is thought that they will hold out until the next general election in the Irish Republic, either in 2006 or 2007. Sinn Fein finds itself at the centre of the process while they hold the IRA’s dissolution as a bargaining card and this does not yet cause them any electoral pain in Northern Ireland.

But voters in the Irish Republic take a more critical view of the IRA and it is widely thought that Sinn Fein cannot be more than a bit player in Irish politics until it “loses” the IRA. There would be little point in making such a concession so far in advance of the Irish election when its impact could be lost.

So there is a feeling that failure this week makes little difference. However, this underestimates the impact of the failure of politics on what one senior Westminster source describes as an "expensive, sick, dysfunctional and totally irrational society."

Northern Ireland has come a long way since the early 70s when insecurity was rampant and hundreds were killed every year. But the effect of what is usually euphemistically described as the Troubles has divided its people very profoundly and there is a "benign apartheid."

Despite the peace process, segregation of Catholics and Protestants has worsened. Rigorous equality legislation has built some protected spaces in which Catholics and Protestants co-exist and trade unions have done much to tackle hatred in the workplace. But most people do not wish or feel that it is dangerous to live, work, go to school and socialise together. Northern Ireland is a bitterly poisonous society ill at ease with itself.

It is contradictory. There are more mixed marriages but most communities are composed of more than 90% of either Catholics or Protestants. The vast majority of parents support the principle of integrated education, as opposed to mainly Catholic or Protestant schools, but only about 7% attend such mixed schools.

This means that generations of kids have little or no contact with their peers on the other side until, for some, they reach higher education or emigrate. This strongly consolidates the "them and us" mentality and the lack of understanding of others’ fears and hopes.

There has been much talk about embracing some form of truth and reconciliation process but this is likely to become a truth and recrimination process for now. The parties have come a long way by suspending their deep disgust with each other but trust is in short supply.

There may be peace, although both sets of paramilitary groups exercise brutal power through kneecapping, expulsion and intimidation in their own communities and the “peace walls” at the interfaces between increasingly homogenised Catholic and Protestant areas are still being built.

Some say that it is a question of time before this changes. But widespread social segregation has a cost. It is estimated that the cost of duplicating public services – from leisure centres to houses and buses – is nearly $1.5 billion a year.

Northern Ireland’s economy is fitter thanks to peace but one of its key exports is people. Many workers in the North go to the booming Irish Republic in the week and their pay packets prove to be crucial to the service economy when they return for weekends. Many young people leave the North to go to university in Britain and never return, preferring the more inclusive and cosmopolitan lifestyle in, say, London to the segregation and insularity of their old ghettoes. This discourages enterprise and innovation. One analyst says, "those with get up and go get up and go."

Thanks to the militarization of Northern Ireland during the Troubles and the unwillingness of successive British Governments to apply economic liberalization to the North, the public sector accounts for 60% of the economy, much higher than the rest of the UK and a drain on enterprise. There is also a huge black economy and widespread tax evasion.

The continuing inability to strike a deal and build institutions that can address such failings only defers the painful decisions that will be needed to desegregrate society and modernize the economy. Local politicians are not under pressure to take collective responsibility for reforms that could hurt their voters.

Northern Ireland may be a small unit but has had huge attention lavished on it by Prime Ministers and Presidents for many years. The British Prime Minister Tony Blair has visited it thirty times in seven years. Some wonder if this exceeds the time given to his own local constituency in England.

Blair is under pressure from his own party to focus on domestic issues, and Northern Ireland does not count as one of these. If a deal is not reached this week, it is unlikely that the Blair will find another window of opportunity until 2006, because of the impending general election in May or June next year and heavy European Union and G8 commitments in the second half of 2005.

The Northern Ireland parties will only have themselves to blame if they flunk the chance of a deal in Kent and allow the peace process to drip slowly towards a finale whilst Northern Ireland stagnates socially, economically and politically.

As Gerry Moriarty opines "Ambitious or what? Allowing for the New Year, the return to school and getting back into shape after the Christmas festivities, their January deadline could be towards the middle or latter end of that month.

That's not bad: it gives the parties four months to accept, acquiesce to, or grudgingly tolerate any agreement - or makings of an agreement - that might emerge from this medieval moated castle."

Although the official line remains "yes a deal can be done" there are still many obstacles to be cleared from the path to that objective. Apart from the paramilitary question, "Some of the big issues in terms of the mechanics of the Belfast Agreement are the DUP's wish to separate the unified functions of the First and Deputy First Minister, ministerial accountability and voting arrangements in the Assembly."

Moriarty suggests the SDLP leader Mark Durkan’s reference last week to "a phased, phrased deal" could be the most optimistic outcome the two governments can hope for, but also warns that "The DUP and Sinn Féin can live with failure, knowing their constituencies won't abandon them, which is one of the problems of this process: plenty of carrot but where's the stick."

On the fundamental question that is perplexing all political commentators "Can a deal be done?", Gerry Moriarty is more open than most, "The honest answer is that nobody really knows - and that includes the principal players. Certainly based on experience it's probably best to tend towards pessimism."

Statement and full report can be found here

Selected quotes from the Irish Times article

"Ireland is now 'almost on a par with Finland' as the most expensive country in the eurozone, according to a new report on competitiveness and price inflation"

"Consumer price inflation in Ireland exceeded that in both the euro zone and the EU-15 for the past seven years, rising by 17.5 per cent between December 1999 and December 2003. This compared to an EU-15 average of 8.4 per cent over the same period.”

“On consumer prices, the report said Ireland was the most expensive country in the eurozone for food, non-alcoholic beverages, tobacco and rentals for housing, and the second most expensive for alcoholic beverages, restaurants and pubs.”

“In a European-wide survey last March of low-priced stores, Ireland was found to be the most expensive in the eurozone for 10 out of 33 basic foodstuffs, namely mineral water, potatoes, lettuce, oranges, apples, peaches, lamb chops, potato chips, table salt and biscuits. It was also most expensive for four out of 14 non-food consumables, i.e batteries, toilet tissue, shampoo and toothpaste.”

"Most Irish inflation over this period has been generated domestically, and is not as a result of rising prices for imported goods, the report stressed.”

"Mr William Burgess, chairman of the NCC, said the research 'confirms the widely-held belief that Ireland is an expensive location for both business and consumers'."

Irish Times

I was pleased to see he includes “Thy Tears might Cease “ by Michael Farrell, although less convinced by “Star Of the Sea” by Joseph O’Connor.

Joyce, Edna O’Brien, McGahern, Flanagan, Bowen, William Trevor and JG Farrell are all represented.

I would replace the O’Connor book by Redemption by Francis Stuart or The Informer by O’Flaherty and Finnegans wake by Colm Tóibín’s Blackwater Lightship.

How do other sluggers rate his choices ?

- The first principle is that more of the same will not do.

- Not a scintilla of a goody should be bestowed on tick. Cash on delivery must be the rule.

- The overblown machine should be shorn of its fat and the Assembly of 108 cut by one third or even a half.

- The PR electoral system should be adjusted to use the device of the alternative vote. This would make election tougher and oblige candidates to broaden their appeal because they would need support from other parties.

- Finally the Executive must find a means of creating a modicum of cabinet responsibility".

Within characteristically dense but measured prose Heaney pays tribute to Milosz and his "wish that poetry in general should be capable of providing an elevated plane of regard" while the poet should seek to imbue the work with "awareness of the triteness and tribulations of other people’s lives [that is] needed to humanise the song". A duality of being that Heaney identifies in Milosz’s work as "the speech of the whole man."

The move from the UK to the US server means that the technological costs have plummeted. Even low level clicks on the Google ads should now work in tandem with these substantially lower costs.

The real question is the amount of time required to keep Slugger running smoothly. We have been lucky that River Path has been on hand to pay for Abi's precious time. You can be certain that Slugger would not have survived the ravages of the summer without her and the full backing of the company!

But that doesn't cover the time yours truly gives to the smooth running of the site. Aside from the £800 that readers kindly donated for the election coverage in November (and most of that went in costs, not profit), it has pretty much been unpaid work from the beginning.

However this may be in the process of changing.

We have a semi formal debate coming up, which will use Slugger as a host for an international debate on Human Rights. If this proves successful I'll be exploring the possibility of running similiarly funded one-off real time and online events.

The priniciple of free at the point of use has been key to Slugger's success, and will remain so as long as I have anything to do with it. Apart from anything else, I'm certain readers would simply vote with the feet and the site would become a very small private club for those affluent enough to pay a fee.

However, If the site is to develop in the value added way I think it can, then I'm going to have to find a practical solution to the money problem. Core public funding is problematic, as Slugger doesn't represent a Northern Irish community group as such. So, in the shorter term, we are most likely to succeed by attracting individual patrons and/or sponsorship.

Any ideas on this are welcome. Even better a patron page awaits those of you who are in a position to start the ball rolling with donations of £100, or more!

You can comment below, or if you prefer to talk privately drop me an email.

Thanks Dave.

There's a book in this, and I'll want you to sign a copy for me!

After all, who, if we’re being honest, isn’t flattered at the notion that we spring from, and into, a culture rich in musical and literary heritage and never mind how many truly great musicians from Ireland you can name, or that Joyce, Wilde and Shaw all left the suffocating Ireland they lived in.

Although Doyle acknowledges the vitality of the spoken word, and his awareness of that obviously contributes to his own writing, he also questions the motives of those behind the “selling ourselves as the land of the writing, singing, little people” and rails at conservative Ireland (of the present and his own past), the agonizing over increasing materialism and “whether the country has lost its way”. The real question, as he sees it, is "Why are there still children living in poverty? We now have money but it's not filtering down."

Is it all part of what is, as he says about “the myth of Dublin as a sexy place”, “a big con job”? And, if it is, are we just conning ourselves?

By Christopher Stalford

Following on the back of last weeks Republican National Convention it seems as though the character of the US Presidential election has changed. A race that was a dead heat between the two leading candidates has been transformed overnight into George W Bush’s election to lose. Having consistently trailed John Kerry by one or two points for the last three months, the President has opened up a commanding ten point lead in the most recent opinion polls. History records that anyone leading in the polls at this stage in the campaign goes on to win the White House.

The contrast between the two candidates could not be clearer. Bush, whatever else his opponents might say about him has a remarkable talent for connecting with people – his earthy, almost folksy image stands in sharp contrast to the Massachusetts Senator. Mr. Kerry was educated at a Swiss boarding school. He married his first wife (estimated worth: $300million) only to divorce her and marry another one, (estimated worth: more than $1billion) and spends a large part of his time in Nantucket, playground of the rich and famous.

The sheer level of Kerry’s (unearned) wealth is higher than many third world countries. Nevertheless, that hasn’t stopped the Senator from supplementing his enormous fortune through his possession of political office. Despite Democrat accusations that President Bush is a hostage to special interest groups such as the oil companies and the National Rifle Association (NRA), John Kerry has consistently topped the poll for accepting money from Washington lobbyists. This was a point made repeatedly by Senator John Edwards, when he was running against Kerry for the Democratic nomination – unsurprisingly Edwards is a little less willing to talk about it now he has thrown his lot in with him.

While there is still obvious disquiet in the USA over the situation in Iraq, Bush has been able to effectively close it down as a vote winner for the Democrats by pointing up Kerry’s inconsistency over the topic. Having voted to give the President the power to go to war, Senator Kerry then voted against extra resources being set aside to pay for equipment such as body armour, medicine and ammunition for the troops in the field. This changing of minds has earned him the nickname “flip-flop Kerry”.

This week Bush went on the attack saying "After voting for the war, but against funding it, after saying he would have voted for the war even knowing everything we know today, my opponent woke up this morning with yet another new position. Suddenly he's against it again. No matter how many times Senator Kerry changes his mind, it was right for America and it's right for America now that Saddam Hussein is no longer in power”.

Having said that, the principal difficulty that Kerry faces in his campaign to overthrow President Bush is the economy. Recent independent figures show that the period of economic sluggishness has come to an end, jobs are being created and the economy is showing signs of upturn. Bush has pioneered bi-partisan education reform during his first term and is championing home-ownership in this campaign – it is hard therefore to see where exactly Kerry can score serious points off the President. My prediction? Four more years!

First published in the Newsletter on Saturday 11th September 2004

From Sam Bride

The fight to keep the Swimming pool at the University of Ulster was taken to the High Court in Belfast today. Lawyers for the ‘Save our Pool’ group were seeking leave for judicial review, to force the University to review its decision to close the Jordanstown pool without consulting any of the pool’s users, including several schools for handicapped children.

Campaigners have had their numbers boosted with the addition of eight local politicians to the Save Our Pool committee and have had morale lifted by a Motion in the House of Commons calling on the University to reverse its decision to close the pool. Dermot Feenan, one of the campaigners says that ‘the University has never been taken to court before by as diverse a group of individuals, and is clearly on the back foot’.

Many students are returning to Jordanstown this week, unaware that the university has closed the pool. Sam McBride, vice-president of the canoe club is outraged at the manner in which the University sought to close the pool when staff and students were on holiday; “Jordanstown is hosting the Canoe varsities for the whole of Ireland in February and it is disgraceful that the University has taken away our training facilities without even consulting us”. “It appears the University has planned to close the pool for months, possibly years, yet they barely gave us a month’s warning that the pool would be closed for the start of term”

It has also emerged that the University was obliged by law to conduct an equality screening exercise, allowing a minimum of eight weeks of consultation before any decision on the pool’s future. Advice from the Equality commission reveals that this should be extended to allow for holidays. Given that no consultation took place, supporters of the pool believe that they have further grounds on which to challenge the University’s decision.

The case will continue in the High Court tomorrow (Wednesday) morning, in what the pool’s supporters trust will be the first hurdle to securing the pool’s future.

You'll notice that we are currently without our archives. This was a first casulty in the crash. We do have records of them, but they are not in a form that allows us to reinstate them either quickly or cheaply. We hope to add these as and when we have the opportunity.

There are still some hiccups around the commenting system which are keen to clear up to everyone's satisfaction. If you come across anything strange or unusual let myself of Abi know about it and we'll do our best to sort it out asap.

In any case welcome back to the Real Slugger O'Toole. Thanks for bearing with us during the interregnum. As we head (metaphorically) towards the Leeds Castle negotiations, we hope to keep you up to date with the latest developments.

It's reminiscent of other press gleanings like those of David McKittrick and Eammon Maillie, except that Morrison makes no pretense that his work is objective. He is unabashed in his role of political columnist. It provides a useful insight into the last six or seven years, as seen from a mainstream Republican point of view.

His account of the signing of the Belfast Agreement - witnessed from the outside in company of the world's press corps - betrays a passion of the business of journalism and a decent eye for drama. His view of his opponents at the time - "Unionism in change is dynamic: Unionism is interesting".

I flicked imaptiently to the section marked Unionism Misunderstood - Some Clarifications. From the reading there, it's clear that however close senior Republicans and Unionists felt to on that morning of April 11th, it didn't last! Ian Paisley, Garvaghey Road and Holy Cross primary school all enter the story and the pitch is queered.

The section on the 11th September disaster and its aftermath, teases out an sometimes nuanced criticism of US foreign policy. His obituaries run from the first Blanket protester to Spike Milligan. Overall Morrison is most engaging when he is freest in his storytellling. My own favourite is 145 Divis Street.

Another book from the same publishing house well worth having is Máirtín Ó Muilleoir's account of the rise of Sinn Fein in Belfast City Council throughout the 1980s and 90s, Belfast's Dome of Delight: City Hall Politics 1981-2000.

Responses to hate crime

"Many gay people do not report 'low level' homophobic attacks because they think nothing will be done, for fear of incurring more prejudice from the police and authorities, and for fear of attracting more attention to themselves. The Housing Executive needs to treat people who have been made homeless through hate crime as high priority for re-housing."

"Parades Commission, promotes culture of antagonism towards the Unionist Community - recent decisons have promoted a climate of fear, where many have died as a result of violence, if the Government and parliment are serious about building peace, they must abolish this one sided body."

"More mainstream approach that can be delivered at all levels and built upon incrementally as a child progresses through their school years. This could be achieved if some kind of outreach facility could be developed. In 70s/80s road safety workshops visited schools to spread the message of the green cross code - could something similar be developed to introduce other cultural identities to children?"

Here's a few examples of what they've picked up so far.

The law on hate crime

"The proposed law on hate crime is welcome but the minister muddied the waters when he laid before Parliament combined proposals to address hate and car crime, as if they could be lumped together in a generic 'law and order' rhetoric. The legislation should apply to this subject only, so that a clear message is sent out from government."

Incidence of racist, sectarian and homophobic crime

"NI is a narrow minded and intolerant place to live. We have generations of working class in areas afflicted by paramilitaries and that culture now they turn against others different from themselves. Racist crime is an easy target for them, colour is obvious to them and the gay community are easy targets too. actions/words which create fear in another based on their racial /sexual orientation need to be actioned and classified".

If you have something to add or contend, then get yourself registered at the discussion site. At the end of the consultation, the input from all the participants will be fed directly into the Committee's official inquiry.

If you experience any technical problems email them: edemocracy@lse.ac.uk or call on 0207 395 4007/4005.

By Sean Farren

From a community viewpoint most of our towns, villages and townlands are ghettoes, or consist of ghettoes in which our communities live apart.

Some this ghettoisation has been the product of earlier troubles, some of an understandable congregating by newcomers close to existing inhabitants of a similar background. In times of peace and of more relaxed community relations the reverse tendency emerged and a degree of inter-mixing of our communities occurred. This was most marked in the post-ww2 period until the mid-nineteen sixties.

However the recent thirty year period of communal conflict troubles reversed tendencies to create mixed communities. But with the ceasefires, the Good Friday agreement and other attempts to reach a political settlement it was not expected that communities would continue to drift apart. Unfortunately this is what continues to happen.

Some recent examples in North Antrim as elsewhere are the direct result of intimidation and harassment by people in one community against those in the other. Those responsible seem intent on creating a situation in which the whole of Northern Ireland consists of communities living apart, geographically and socially.

Attacks on homes, on halls, on schools and churches have contributed to this ghettoisation. So too has the flying of flags, behaviour at parades and protests by one group or another.

People in a community whose homes, halls and other property come under attack no longer feel welcome to stay in an area. They move out as soon as possible to where they feel safest – amongst their own, be these Catholic or Protestant, unionist or nationalist.

In moving out they not only lose their neighbours they bring their business with them. If Catholics are not welcome in an area they will withdraw and, as they go, they take with them their business with local traders, shops etc. Likewise if Protestants are unwelcome they too will withdraw support from local businesses.

Is this what we want to see happening everywhere? Do we want to live separately under separate flags only occasionally mixing with each other in ordinary every day events?

If so, all of our towns, our villages and townlands will soon be islands of separated communities. The results are not only children being educated separately, and churches attended separately, but we will not even meet people from the other community in the street. We will cease to know each other as neighbours across the community divide. No wonder then if we see each other as strangers and in some cases as enemies.

As someone from the nationalist community who wants to see all of the people of Ireland coming together in the common name of Irishman and Irish woman, this is not my vision for our society. Nor is it my vision for how the Good Friday Agreement’s aim of a totally peaceful and exclusively democratic society is to be achieved.

Marking out territory as ‘nationalist’ and using the Irish tricolour to taunt and provoke unionists just as unionists do in marking out territory with the Union Jack, will never create the conditions for unity. Nor will conditions for unity be created by showing a lack of respect for traditions associated with the unionist community. If there is to be place in a united Ireland for unionists, there must be respect for their traditions. Otherwise the idea of unity is a sham and will never be achieved.

The same is true for any agreement in the immediate future. Just as nationalists rightly demand respect for our traditions, so too unionists have the right to expect respect for theirs. These simple lessons must be learned by us all. Otherwise there will be no reconciliation and no real peace. At best an uneasy peace will exist in which we grow more and more apart rather then come together.

Of course there are many people from both communities and from our different churches who are involved in building bridges and doing their best to break down the barriers that exist between us. Many community organisations also deliberately set out to create opportunities for such contacts and do so in ways that are very successful in bringing people together. But bringing people of different traditions together is now something which has to be organised, not something that happens naturally. A sad reflection on a modern, twenty-first century society.

A future where we live in peace and at ease beside and amongst each other, whatever our community background, whatever our religion, our colour or our political affiliation should be our common goal. Otherwise we perpetuate division and sow the seeds for future conflict. Let’s hope our community, church and political leaders will rise to the challenge.

Mr McCartney: Will the rates be increased?

The First Minister: The rates might be increased or something else might be increased. That is what we have to consider. The rating review opens up the issue for discussion. The Assembly and the community in Northern Ireland must face that discussion. We must recognise that the level of taxation in local government in Northern Ireland is less than that in England, Scotland and Wales. Therefore we must consider that point and ask whether additional revenue can be found to meet the cost of future borrowing.
Some of the scare stories that have been spread in the media about what this may mean are, however, greatly exaggerated. The Assembly will make any decisions on the matter, and I hope that when we reach that point there will be grown-up discussion and consideration instead of some of the sillier points that have been raised in recent months.

Time will tell. But an act of decommissioning now would single a different dynamic in the process, with the IRA being seen as taking the lead in the process rather than being pushed into to it by their political opponents. The other crucial question will be how much will General de Chastelain be permitted to reveal of what he witnesses.

Clearly the IRA will want to put limits on what is publicly revealed, but without some form of open verification of quantities, it's unlikely to pass muster as a 'confidence building' exercise for their Unionist opponents.

The prospect of Peter Robinson slow-dancing with, let alone snogging Gerry Adams, in the ballroom of Leeds Castle next week, is not one which either man, or their supporters, would welcome. Yet that, in essence, is the sort of finale towards which the clumsily choreographed talks process is being directed by the British and Irish governments.

In a carefully crafted speech to the Irish Republic’s Small Firms Association last week—indeed, the sort of speech that David Trimble was making seven years ago--Mr. Robinson made a number of interesting comments: “Only time will tell the extent of the progress that will be made, but I believe that the ingredients are in place, if all parties are willing to embrace entirely peaceful and democratic means…� “If, however, shared practical advantages flow that profit those involved, then my party will drive co-operation forward with enthusiasm and vigour.�

Mr. Adams was not as upbeat, complaining that the DUP hadn’t even spoken to Sinn Fein, and “in fact, don’t appear to be contemplating talking to Sinn Fein until some time very late next year.�

But for all of Mr. Robinson’s genuine or manufactured optimism, he finds himself on precisely the same hook upon which the UUP hung between April 10th,1998 and October 21st, 2003. When he says, “Either republicans commit to exclusively peaceful and democratic means or they will have no place in government,� he is also acknowledging (given that Tony Blair will never unambiguously side with unionists against Sinn Fein) that there will probably be no place in government for the DUP, either.

My own instinct is that Sinn Fein will not sign up to an Assembly without an Executive, so, in effect, both the DUP’s corporate model and the UUP alternatives being flagged up by Sir Reg Empey, will, almost certainly, prove to be non-runners. Unless, of course, Mr. Blair faces down SF/IRA and supports a Plan B which either excludes or minimizes Sinn Fein’s presence. And who amongst you would bet on such an outcome?

Sometimes in politics it is better to cut to the chase and deal with the real root of a problem. In this case that would mean a willingness of the DUP to agree to a face-to-face meeting with the IRA Army Council. Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness insist that Sinn Fein does not speak for the IRA, so even if the DUP met Sinn Fein it still wouldn’t answer a number of very important questions.

The DUP has nothing to lose by offering to meet the Army Council. Indeed, such an offer would represent a huge propaganda coup and place enormous pressure on republicans to respond positively. The high moral ground is often the loneliest place in a political process and the DUP no longer has the luxury of being able to pretend that it doesn’t have to deal with republicanism in both its armed and ballot-box manifestations.

The DUP has come a very long way since 1998, most of the journey having been travelled since last November. It must not, at this stage, be afraid to complete the journey. Courage is the real test of leadership. David Trimble has never lacked it. What will future biographers say of Robinson?

First published in the Newsletter on Saturday 11th September 2004

By David Brewster

The speculation about the possibility of a deal involving the DUP and SF/IRA has increased in recent days, stoked by UUP supporters keen to be absolved by the commission of the sins of which they have been guilty by the rather cynical adoption of a stance best summarised as “You’re no better than us�. In this analysis, power crazed Peter Robinson signs up to a government with Gerry Adams, ditching all the DUP’s opposition to the Agreement in return for David Trimble’s old office in Stormont. The Unionist electorate, having finally seen through the shameless opportunism of the DUP, then returns to the Ulster Unionists on the basis that an honest rogue is preferable to a dishonest one.

As a comfort blanket, this is pretty feeble, but at the moment it’s all the UUP have got. They have been marginalized as effectively as the SDLP from the current process, and it’s proving difficult to adjust. But in the interests of fairness, let’s pretend that such a fanciful scenario could come to pass, as many Ulster Unionists devoutly wish. Would the DUP split between fundamentalists and pragmatists, allowing the UUP a triumphant return? It is very unlikely, given the very different nature of the two parties. The UUP has been cursed by a large faction, most charitably described as sheep, who will follow the leader and accept his assurances that what is obviously a sell out is really a cunning plan.

As one once said in another of those interminable UUC debates “I know he’s wrong but he’s the leader, and I’m here to be led� The DUP also has a large section of members who are disposed to accept the judgement of their leader, but critically he, and they, would be far less disposed to accept a Good Friday Agreement mark 2. The DUP is different in outlook and nature, having a smaller, more active membership, in which that self-proclaimed “thrawn� section has a larger influence, and is not disposed to succumb to the blandishments of the NIO, even if any leadership figure completely ignored the lessons of the past eight years. There is no large payroll or family vote sustaining a semi-detached group of liberal Assembly members. You just do not find large numbers of Democratic Unionists angling for knighthoods or seats in the Lords.

Suspend your disbelief for a time, and envisage a deal which is broadly established on the main elements of the last Agreement but its foundations show a significant advance in quality. By this I mean that there is substantial decommissioning; it is more visible, or witnessed by persons trusted by the Unionist community; the wording of the IRA’s commitment to abjure violence and crime is less Jesuitical and ambiguous; and the administration contains Sinn Fein members in less sensitive positions than justice, policing or education. Some-or all -of these targets are attainable even without tinkering with the architecture, as the UUP continually claim. But that argument merely exposes its own shortcomings. If you’ve had three attempts at decorating the house and each one looks worse, your wife will call in the professionals, not let you try again.

The UUP has of course already come to an understanding with the IRA in November, which remains largely a secret, and which is obviously going to exert a major influence on the talks as it represents the SF/IRA negotiating position. For party political reasons, this understanding is being concealed, even though it must give Sinn Fein an advantage in the pending talks.

To demand a face-to-face meeting with the sick Ian Paisley as a prerequisite to inter-Unionist discussions, as David Trimble did recently, is one of the worst examples of shallow opportunism in a career littered with such petty stunts. It jeopardises the position of the entire Unionist family. It cannot be that the UUP are fearful that the DUP negotiators might make a better fist of things given the same material, can it?

Parties steal the policies of other parties all the time. The Tories rightly rail against neo-conservative Tony Blair’s wholesale theft of their policies, but the electorate still rejects a party it believes is not ready to lead the country. How much more so would the Unionist people draw the logical conclusion, if the DUP were to move more towards the centre ground of Unionism?

When faced with a Jim Allister or a Jim Nicholson the middle classes preferred the thoroughbred to the donkey, as they did in North Belfast at the last General Election, and as they assuredly will again if Jeffrey Donaldson is challenged by Ivan Davis, or Gregory Campbell by David McClarty. The superior constituency service provided by the DUP has eaten into what remains of urban working class Unionism. There can hardly be more than one hundred UUP activists in Belfast, and fewer than a quarter of that in Londonderry.

The UUP is a party of elderly, exhausted and demoralised members, and has never dealt with the problem of what Dean Godson’s book termed “the good ole boys� who would have given bed-blocking a bad name even ten years ago It has lost its youth wing to the DUP, where bright young things are only to be faulted in their occasional enthusiasm to sink the boot into their former party instead of charitably ignoring it as the government has taken to doing. There is no right wing party ready to attack any outbreak of “pragmatism� from the DUP talks team. There is no tension between the supposed wings of the DUP, although there may well be jockeying for places by senior figures for all I know-it would be a strange political party if there weren’t.

The recent focus on, and flattery of, senior DUP figures, after years of studied disdain by media and governments, has also focussed the spotlight on the personalities and the differences in character have become more obvious. Yet there has been no dissident leaking concern or proposing an alternative strategy. The movements within the DUP are more like the nervous enthusiasm of a substitute warming up on the touchline and finally told he’s to get on the pitch and turn the game. So even if the UUP had correctly detected a fundamental change in DUP policy, it would do them no good whatever if the DUP didn’t split-and on that hope they must know that no party has a better track record of smothering dissent.

I do not believe that there is such a seismic shift in traditional Unionism. The DUP know that the Government is keen to apply pressure on them, firstly by manufacturing tensions to “divide and conquer�, and secondly by wielding a stick. Hence the closure of Clogher Base, and the impending downgrading of Mahon Road RIR barracks, and the swinging cuts in the PSNI Reserve. There is a real danger that the Government will decide to attempt to puncture the newfound Unionist confidence by a series of blows designed to encourage the defeatist calls which these days pass for Ulster Unionist policy.

One aim of this tactic would be to accelerate the abstentionism in the Unionist electorate. Some in the UUP are so focussed on attacking the DUP that they are prepared to pay this price, no matter the consequences for the Union. Recall page 542 of Godson’s book and the request by David Trimble of Sir Ronnie Flanagan to speak to the GOC about unhelpful watchtowers in South Armagh if this seems unduly fanciful. It is interesting to note that, whereas once the UUP would adopt an attitude of lofty condescension to the DUP, now it seems their entire focus is on attacking fellow Unionists- and if they cry (as they do) that the DUP started it, they recognise implicitly that they can no longer assume that they are “the natural party of government�, as I was told as recently as 2001 by one of the good ole boys.

I am convinced that there is a much more capable team of negotiators representing Unionism next week than hitherto, as Sir Reg Empey implicitly concedes when he says a much better deal could have been obtained in 1998 if the DUP had stayed in the talks. The presence of Jeffrey Donaldson means that there is at least one person familiar with the tactics used by the government-“psy-ops� (psychological warfare)-would not be too strong a term for how the NIO operated in 1998. Instead of one man making things up on the hoof-a guarantee for disaster- there will be proper strategic planning. The DUP has learned a lot about presentation, and is no longer simply in the business of saying “No�, but it will still be capable of putting its foot down when required-and it will need to.

Too often the UUP seemed captivated with the intellect of a lecturer from a second rank provincial University, and believed-as I am sure he did himself (even sometimes correctly) – that he was cleverer than all the Oxbridge-educated NIO and F & CO mandarins in the Government team, and the top diplomats in Iveagh House. That mistake will not be repeated. Even if there is no Trimble this time, there are also none of the placemen added to the team to make up the numbers or to keep opponents out. Having been one myself in 1996-8, that gives me particular encouragement. There will be no Cecil Walker type figure brought in at the death to fill a chair across a table when key issues are being considered.

If the DUP were able to negotiate a better deal the UUP would have nothing left to do, as increasingly it regards its function as attacking the DUP- a fault which they regularly attributed to the DUP when themselves in a position of dominance. This has the potential to be the most critical phase of the present political talks, and therefore the subterfuge, dishonesty, “ constructive ambiguity�-call it what you will- applied against the negotiators for Unionism can only increase.

If the DUP are stupid enough to repeat the mistakes of the UUP, having had such a ringside view of events in 1998, then the critics will be proven right, and the Union will be in grave danger. The truly amazing thing is that for some in Cunningham House that would be the best possible outcome. How are the mighty fallen!

At about 7am, the alarm clock went off and I was given a joyful series of licks by one of the hairy beasts of a dog I'm sharing the house with. The other one's a grump and because of mistreatment being bred in its bones is just getting used to me.

I'm staying off the Belmont Road, outside Belfast with a friend’s sister and her partner. There's (apparently) a lovely long line of shops on the main thoroughfare, which because I'll be feeding myself tonight I'll have to investigate. I'm saying apparently, because everything's been a bit of a whirl so far. It's been years since I flew, years since I've been away from the office (even thoughts of it) and now something I've been promising myself is telling me to 'get on with it and trust what comes out'. Brutal advice, but a paraphrased piece of wisdom I use with my students when I’m running a creative writing session and the block sets in. Seems to work, but can I take my own advice?

It’s also been years since I saw the towering yellow H and W cranes, Samson and Goliath, been caught in the rain at the side of an Irish slip road and even more years since I’ve had an egg soda* Now that’s a thought – I still haven’t.

I have to create a mantra – come to Ireland and write, come to Ireland and write come to Ireland and write come to Ireland and write come to Ireland and write ad inf. There, I’ve done it.

I'm a bit of a blunderer in new places. Similar to my Dad, but he has a more inquisitive nature, likes to investigate and find things out. He’s also 72, has a yen for fixing things, doesn’t like waste and unlike me, can use the Taurus part of him for positive. I’m a bugger when it comes to stubborn-ness.

Yesterday I registered with the main city library. It had a beautiful revolving door. Cumbersome, particularly when one has two rucksacks slung across the shoulder and would fall foul of the D.D.A. But, strangely enough, the latter is the last thing on my mind. So the librarian was brilliant. I presented my details, gave her my temporary address and within fifteen minutes was up and running on the net. She was even sweet enough to tell me how to use the well known search engine..., google eyd (groan) I waited.

I wandered the bowels of sluggerotoole and picked up the entrails of davewoodinireland.blogspot.com. Once finished, made my apologies for my mistakes (that’s another story) I rain-danced my way back to the bus station and was questioned (by a very polite English accent0 about how to get to the Europa (a bus station which sits cheek to cheek with a pub seemingly built round is own snugs, called T he Crown). I did my best to probe the timetable and work it out then went off to plague with my own questions on how I could get to my hosts’ house. When I was told ‘you need a city bus…not here…first you need to go…that’s when thoughts of taxis came in and my anal attitude with pound stirling loosened it’s sphincter. I’m glad it did.

I don’t know if it’s the nature of the poet, the nature of the taxi driver or the nature of the Irish but we just talked all the way. We agreed on the similarities of my home city and Belfast being the appalling one-way system (and currently the weather) and quickly went on to music. Obviously it was part of his yearly life-cycle as it should be of everyone


Meanwhile, there’s a virtual poetry guide/talk/reading at the library today in Donegal Square North. That's where I'm heading (e.t.a 1.10pm). There'll be an excellent opportunity for some networking and some interviewing. I’ll write more soon

also published on davewoodinireland.blogspot.com and forwarded to http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/incwriters/incorporatingwriting.htm

*Toasted soda bread with , yes you guessed it, with a fried egg (or two) on top.