General Election 2010 – the SDLP
The SDLP were defending a marginal in South Belfast and had a new leader attempting to follow a popular MP in South Down. Those seemed potential nightmare ingredients. However the election was a real triumph for Ritchie. Looking at their strongest seats you have:
South Down – 48% (that’s a significant personal triumph – I didn’t think a landslide was on the cards)
Foyle – 45% (If you haven’t seen it look at Durkan on Saville- just the right speech I thought.)
South Belfast – 41% (Higher than the combined Unionist vote)
2 absolute bastions and South Belfast looks safe in the medium term.
Next year (partly due to prior incompetence) it’s the SDLP who look like increasing the number of nationalist MLAs. There’s a few chances:
1) West Tyrone – a no brainer and could be at the DUPs expense.
2) Strangford – always close the GE was supposed to show a nationalist increase due to boundary changes. However both SDLP and SF share fell – lending votes to Nesbitt?
3) East Antrim – in the GE SF outpolled the SDLP by 45 votes. There does look like a possible last seat but the SDLP would need to beat SF on first preferences….
4) South Down – Could the SDLP get a third seat at the expense of SF?…Nic Whyte extrapolates a 5th nationalist seat here Perhaps not quite as the “cross community” GE support for Ritchie drifts away.
Anywhere else?
Ulick,
Could be interesting if eirigi bite the bullet and run for the council elections at least (can only think of 3 or 4 wards they could consider). If both elections are on same day I’d think Breandan running for eirigi in the locals but not Stormont would actually benefit SF. If people are going out to vote who might not otherwise they may just give SF the tick in the other race.
Remains to be seen if eirigi have the nuts to put anyone up though – at the minute I’m assuming the nads won’t descend.
Sinking Dirty Large Pints would be more apt. A party with the highest rate of alcoholics.
O Grady in South Down was not popular he was in the SDLP if Bob the builder was standing he would have got elected That how it works. Prods elect Prods, Taigs elect Taigs..Some sneak through without be either
O’Grady probably sneaked past McGrady….who was so unpopular he got 21,500 votes in 2005.
Kells….below the F’ing belt….. unless you SDLP.
correction
Kells….below the F’ing belt….. unless you are SDLP.
Horse trading is easier if you have something to trade to start with.
I agree totally Mark. Breandan would walk a council seat but most likely would bring out SF transfers for the Assembly. I think I’ve been a lone voice thinking FF standing would be benefit to nationalism in general and SF in particular because they would bring out those who might otherwise stay at home. Likewise with eirigi. The only problem with them though is that they have two very different demographics north and south of the border. Short term I know many people would come out for them but their image is tarnished in the north, at the moment I don’t see where they are going, esp as Breandan is based in Dundalk these days.
Sure Down men would believe anything, even stories about two-headed fish.
Wouldn’t it be more reasonable to explain this as a South Down isolated issue. But the most telling stat isn’t at MP or even MLA level, it’s at council level. I suggest you check the average age. From only a glance at the South Down councillors, I’d reckon it’s 60+.
Thanks fitzjameshorse1745.
Re S Down: I think Ritchie has to stand, assuming PJ’s put out to graze. The idea of both big vote pullers not standing would present an open goal to SF to take a run at them. Word I’ve heard is that Eamonn O’Neill (pushing 70!!!) is going to take another go at the Assembly. He lost his seat first time around to Ritchie, remember. Don’t know about Marietta Farrell – perhaps if we have a South Down constituency they might give us the rundown??
Agree entirely with you re the heavy price paid for not promoting the youth team. Average age of councillors alone in a number of constituencies bears that out.
I think Upper Bann could prove very interesting. Ward seems to be popular locally, still maintains a profile. Will he run as an MLA? Possibly. Tend to agree it’s a long bet, but there are all sorts of undercurrents elsewhere across the North with the likes of independent Nationalists/Republicans in the guise of Deeny and McHugh west of the Bann.
I agree Dominic Bradley’s proving a competent politician. Didn’t rate him initially, came across as a harmless waffler but he’s maintaining a high profile (no doubt helped by joining the Police Board), but I still can’t see him bringing in a second MLA there. It seems to be well and truly lost with SF having rotated MLA personalities a couple of times in the constituency and still not taking any hit.
FST will definitely be interesting. I’d expect McHugh and Gallagher to take the last seat down to the wire and if SF transfers go McHugh’s way (and let’s face it, he’s former SF), he could just nail it. Again, open question, but given the McKinney fallout, I wouldn’t at all predict a return of the SDLP’s vote in massive numbers, especially with McHugh in the fray.
In presuming you mean McKinney (not Gallagher) to take the last seat to the wire.
Geography plays a part in Fermanagh-South Tyrone. And local candidates.
SDLP scored about 3% higher in 2005 local elections (PR) than they scored at Westminster election (FPTP) on same day.
Gildernew is safe and will probably be designated the South Tyrone area but should get enough surplus to help a Fermanagh running mate. There are enough votes in County Fermanagh to elect a SF candidate (or like McHugh SF orientated) but Id think within Fermanagh a SF candidate would at least equal McHughs vote and Gildnernews surplus would tip the balance in his/her favour.
McKinney has to get votes in Fermanagh (where he has brought up) and motivate the Dungannon area vote. He might need a running mate in Tyrone to motivate the local voters.
But on balance……with the caveat that its a long way off…..Id say theres enough committed and “soft” SDLP votes there.