General Election 2010 – the TUV
Right, moving on to the TUV. 2010 represented the first General election to be fought by Traditional Unionist Voice. How did they do?
A total of 26,300 votes over the 10 seats fought split:
North Antrim
Jim Allister – 7,114 (16.8%)
East Belfast
David Vance – 1,856 (5.4%)
North Down
Mary Kilpatrick – 1,634 (4.9%)
Strangford
Terry Williams – 1,814 (5.6%)
East Antrim
Samuel Morrison – 1,826 (6.0%)
East Derry / Londonderry
William Ross – 2,572 (7.4%)
Lagan Valley
Keith Harbinson – 3,154 (8.6%)
Mid Ulster
Walter Millar – 2,995 (7.3%)
South Down
Ivor McConnell – 1,506 (3.5%)
South Antrim
Melwyn Lucas – 1,829 (5.4%)
So three real categories:
1) Allister on 17%
2) Ross, Harbinson and Millar – 7-9%
3) The rest – 3.5-6.0%
The real disappointing outcome for the TUV is that a similar performance next year will not come close to a quota outside wherever Allister stands as the Category B base is just too small. Parodoxically a similar performance would seem to eliminate the prospect of a Nationalist First Minister as DUP would need to lose half a dozen or so seats before SF have a prospect of overtaking them. Two losses to the Alliance a possibility, boundary changes might mean another net 1 loss and 1 going to Allister should see Robinson returned…UCUNF next….
P.S. Entirely intuitively I suspect TUV candidates in West Tyrone and FST might do better than average in the Assembly elections.
Having a bad Maths day arn’t I – great conversations.
There are still enough Nationalist votes in Lagan Valley to elect one Nationalist, probably limping in last without a quota. But it would have to be a SDLP candidate- SF just doesn’t have sufficient support.
It is the Stormont system, almost rigged in favour of small parties, which makes this possible, not the huge (not) number of Nationalists in the constituency.
If the SDLP are eliminated before SF, then half their votes will go to Alliance, making a second alliance seat, a possibility.
If SF are eliminated first, their transfers will nearly all go to the SDLP, and their man will be elected,
Point taken! Absolutely.
But I specifically meant AP being a barrier/bridge between two tribes.
FJH –
re EB: your explanation is out the window – for although there were many factors at play in Naomi’s success, it was nothing like ‘the perfect storm’ you claim.You had only to tune into Slugger now and then to see a concentration by UUP/TORY people on promoting a narrative in which a vote for Alliance is wasted, Trevor Ringland will beat Robinson,blah,blah,blah. Its all very well being wise after the event but many people believed (including your good self?) that nothing would shift Robinson. These were all forces which made it not a perfect storm at all but factors whcih had to be overcome.
with media management and the message to members, “everybody has to do their bit”.
Not to mention the cornerstone of Naomi’s work on the ground as an MLA and Councillor.
re Claire |Hannah:According to thier SB literature, she is currently the SDLP rep for “Windsor” So sounds like she will stick with SB now,Strangford was all about gaining experience and providing an SDLP candidate (nothing wrong with that,its what most parties do). And it was shrewd not to throw her hat in the ring in SB following her mother’s s retirement – could look like a dynasty which in current context people do not like. Plus,could you see ODonnel putting party before self and handing over to someone else if he does not have to?
Re Strangford:Kieron McCarthy, a popular local man is very solid there and likely to stand in next election. But Deborah Girvan is very capable person coming in alongside him. Looking good to me.
Im not so sure that Hanna in South Belfast is a good idea. And I must be careful what I say here for very personal reasons. Effectively South Belfast SDLP is a coalition of two very diverse parties….we might for convenience call them the Ormeau Road and Malone Road. Not entirely fair I know.
But the presence of the “university faction” mostly out of towners skews it slightly as well. Many of the malone Road tendency are professionals who are blow ins.
With McDevitt and Hanna….this skews it slightly away from a working class base. Now SDLP detractors in SF-IRA would say the Ormeau Road is solid SF territory but thats only partly true.
While no doubt McDevitt and Hanna are intelligent able people there is a need for a bit of heart and experience in the real world beyond party offices and “PR” companies and the like.
Ultimately they should be thinking of a MLA from each “base”. And youre right Hanna has had her eyes on Mammys seat for a long time and Strangford was a diversion to build herself a profile and the no hope candidate fighting a no hope seat (Strangford) earns her brownie points and experience.
Yet it is a sad reflection that SDLPs current strength in South Belfast came too late for one of the most able politicians and strategists of ANY party who was never actually elected to public office.
I refer of course to Ben Caraher….an unlucky candidate in the 1970s.
As for McCarthy……”popular local man” and in fairness it should be pointed out that the entire McCarthy clan are popular in the Peninsula. Dan being a SDLP figure and all heavily involved in GAA.
Of course with Hanna safely de-camped to South Belfast, Joe Boyle can act the good soldier who was 100% behind the wee girl from Belfast and has earned himself some SDLP brownie points.
TBH it usually seems like the Alliance want to build a third tribe in the middle with slight air of superiority over the other two tribes.
Expect two new SDLP seats
I do. But I expect that they will come at the expense of a Unionist, not Alliance.
Strangford
Look at the figures for the count.
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/07str.htm
Please note that Kieran McCarthy was elected THIRD. His position is unassailable: his seat is not in doubt.
The contest for the SIXTH seat was between the last DUP candidate and Joe Boyle (SDLP), who only lost by 31 votes. Given that the constituency has moved slightly to the South, we expect him to win this time.
In East Antrim Neeson for Alliance was elected fourth.
http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/07ea.htm
The contest for the sixth and final seat will be between UUP, SDLP, SF, TUV and possibly a second Alliance candidate (whom I do not expect to win). Here the outcome is less certain because the boundary changes have brought a lot of SF voters into the constituency.