Ulster back at a crossroads
I’ve watched the bitter rejoicing that has always accompanied hard line unionist victories for 40 years. And victory of sorts is what Jim Allister has achieved, a victory against expectations if not against worst fears, just as the young Ian Paisley almost toppled that most modest of reformers Terence O’Neill in February 1969. Peter Robinson would shrink from the comparison but that is how he has been cast. 1969 was the one and only election in 40 years when hopes were high of a breakthrough. Once dashed, they were never repeated. Such progress as was made later came not out elections but from attrition on the streets and in the conference chamber.
Rejoicing must be how David Trimble and the Conservative unionists must be feeling. Even in their wildest dreams they never thought they’d get their own back on their DUP tormentors. But rejoicing will be short lived. Unionism faces a choice, whether to turn away from powersharing or turn back the clock. They have decisions to take; for Mr Allister must believe he can destroy New DUP and with it, the compulsory coalition.
We now know that the parties of the extremes can be outflanked. This a blow to those who assiduously courted the DUP at Ulster Unionist expense, but it need not be fatal. There is no need to be spooked into paralysis by Mr Allister. There will be a decent majority for powersharing as the seal on the end to conflict, but this is plainly a wasting asset. Unionist infighting can still increase the risks of general breakdown, as Sinn Fein and everybody else should remind them.
Facing the logic of being outflanked requires a strategy. The DUP has been without one ever since the chuckling stopped. Sinn Fein are still living on the gains of disarmament and power sharing, though they are far from invulnerable too. The DUP have no such resource in their political bank. The electorate are confused between cooperation in government and deadly enemies in elections. The only way to make sense of this is to take initiatives both directions.
First a change of attitude. Don’t demonise Mr Allister and his supporters. Take the conscientious objectors to power sharing with killers seriously but separate them meticulously from loyalist killers. Catholics see DUP fumbling over condemning of Kevin McDaid’s murder as according them less than basic human respect.This is no a basis for power sharing. Sinn Fein whatever the flaws in the logic passed a sterner test with Martin McGuineess sensational ” traitors “attack on the murdering republicans.
Next, introduce the devolution of justice and policing at a run. Further delay is pointless and betrays weakness. Speed will build confidence with all nationalists. An Alliance minister extracts much of the the political poison from this essential step.
The common challenge of creating a new budget for the recession would be a good idea too. It would exploit the SDLP’s policy making skills. Ministers should pay attention to public demands for more openness and consultation, particularly over deadlocks like academic selection. Local choice may provide a route to a solution. The Assembly’s virtual disuse is a disgrace.
Unionist splitting is not the brightest of ideas. Now is the time for greater co-operation between the two main unionist parties, under a big Conservative umbrella perhaps, to keep them respectable. Nationalists will be suspicious but Cameron will not let them stray from the Agreements. He has nothing to gain from a retreat from the British-Irish framework and unionism has nowhere else to go. With an end to double jobbing now certain, an electoral pact for the Westminster general election is the logical next step. The longer term political outlook will be helped by the emergence of a new generation and the retirement of the old warriors. Once indispensable to the settlement, they are more and more an obstacle to its progress. Around 60 is not bad retirement age from the front line, I’ve found.
Jim Allister is not a bad man but like many barristers, he is better at putting hostile questions than coming up with generally acceptable answers. Northern Ireland cannot wait another forty years for him to find them. It’s the last thing he wants, but the limited logic of his boundless, excitable intransigence could lead us down the narrow road to another Omagh bomb.
After Walker blamed Allister for future terrorism, anyone who didn’t have the measure of this man now fully has it. You were unfit to even pretend to be a politically neutral state employee, incapable of ever actually behaving thus in practice, and thank God that that charade is long over.
Though do tell us more about your ‘morals’: for you Allister’s ‘hatred’ of McGuinness is ‘morally questionable’. What exactly are McGuinness’ murders then? ‘Dodgy’, ‘a bit of a faux pas’, ‘off-colour humour’? But perhaps, as Turgon has so keenly observed, Brian will come back and tell us to ‘move on’, as McGuiness’ murders were in the past, and are thus dullsville, you squares, whereas those future murders Allister’s guilty of, well those are just horrendous.
malcolm redfellow,
‘What’s happening now is that the whole weave of religious and political power is unravelling. The ideological glue of Irish public identity was a potent mix of populist nationalism on one side and Catholic institutional control of the moral agenda on the other. That glue no longer sticks.’
In which case Fintan O’Toole might have added that the Republic is becoming more like England , France , Germany and Italy in it’s political make up? That would be no bad thing for it would help to focus the politically minded on actual issues rather than on whether one’s grandfather wore a Blueshirt in the 1930′s or supported De Valera or Collins in the Civil War .
From another perspective lets hope the glue when it becomes fully unstuck does not release forces which lead to the kind of division which has plagued NI since it’s establishment . For while the NI division was/is largely across a sectarian divide it also had an economic basis underlying that division . Of course there were always ‘some ‘ nationalists much better off than the poor prods of the Shankill etc but neither had any chance of attaining real political power or influence.
As for the demise of Fianna Gael ? With the victories of both De Rossa and Higgins in Dublin O’Toole might have a point. The next General Election will show whether the present anti FF ‘uprising’ is not just part of a natural reaction to the present economic setback or whether it’s something more fundamental .
Allister could’ve walked around North Antrim for the last 4 weeks with his lad hanging out of his trousers and still picked up the vote he did.
The simple fact is, and the one he didn’t answer on UTV yesterday, the anti agreement vote has now dropped from around 30% to 14%.
But hey thanks to Jim I look forward to seeing a nationalist first minister.
GRAM: “thanks to Jim I look forward to seeing a nationalist first minister.”
Clearly you know nothing about the st Andrews agreement, yet still see fit to foister your misguided views upon us
1. 1st and deputy 1st ministers are equal therefore it really does not matter whether a nationalist or unionist is 1st minister
2. Before st Andrews the UUP had ensured that the largest blog would select the 1st minister the DUP at st andrews (supposedly a better deal) changed this so the largest party could claim the office of 1st minister
Therefore it is the DUP who are soley to blame should SF become 1st minister!
Maybe you should get your facts right before subjecting us to your nonsense
Worst and Ugliest maiden EVER!
But hey thanks to Jim I look forward to seeing a nationalist first minister.
Now now credit where credit is due. ’twas the DUP that negotiated that one
McCollum:Maybe you should get your facts right before subjecting us to your nonsense
Please let me know where I got my facts wrong? I didn’t mention anything about the equality of the two postitoions.
Still looking forward to a nationalist 1st minister though.
The TUV are decidedly lacking in grace. That makes for ugly television, radio and presumably any political “cooperation” they’ll eventually have to enter into with Nationalist parties.
perhaps someone can enlighten me, unionist objections to powersharing is the fact that SF is the largest nationalist party hence the powersharing is with them, hence thats the reason for unionist discomfort. However, SF are fairly newcomers to elections in NI and even more recently the largest nationalist party. Yet there is no historical evidence of unionism sharing power with nationalists, is it fair to ask, is unionism looking for excuses not to share power.
Both the TUV and DUP campaigns pretty much omitted the SDLP and focussed on SF.
Ian Og has already got the ball rolling and said that the SDLP were tougher cookies in power. I gather unionists, DUP or TUV, do not have an arguement against powersharing with the SDLP.
Posters here truthfully or not have claimed that the behaviour of the TUV and DUP made them decide to vote SF instead of SDLP.
P&J is looming. If the DUP delay it further I believe it would show weakness to the TUV.
If the DUP were to publically and politely campaign for nationalists to make the SDLP their largest party, would it be a solution to the TUV problem. Where would the TUV stand on powersharing with the SDLP?
The DUP could start this programme by giving P&J to the SDLP, under d’Hondt they are next in line for a ministry, they’ve just polled 3 times the numbers of the Alliance and it helps to promote the SDLP within nationalism.
The Alliance have flipped flopped on not wanting the post and then been open-minded, UCUNF don’t want P&J devolved, and other parties are too small to warrent the role.
Giving it to the SDLP leaves the TUV exposed, will they support it or not, is their problem SF or just nationalists in power?
It moves the DUP (if cosmetically) to the centre and steals some of UCUNF’s new clothes, in been seen to be non-tribal, reaching out to nationalists etc.
It undermines SF, it sends a message to nationalists, that they want to work with them just not SF.
It sucks the SDLP into the centre, noone bites the hand that feeds them, and if the SDLP see an opportunity to gain support – from where ever- to re-establish themselves within nationalism, they’d be made not to take it.
Come the assembly elections enough nationalists might return to the SDLP to damage SF. The DUP may have done enough damage to the TUV (they’ll either have to support it or condemn it) and the UUP (in been more outreaching to nationalists) to remain the largest party.
There are a lot of non-voting unionists out there, promises of smashing SF or not powersharing doesn’t seem to be encouraging them to vote, possibly it’s time to try something different.
Flashing Over Europe
Hi Harry I think the opposite of your little scenario (S.Ireland being the socialist light at the end of Europe in reactionary dark ages) – is more likely – European reactionaries trying to out do each other at various venues and press conferences as to who can be the most effective right wing populist – a whose the best monster contest between UKIP BNP and Hungary’s anti Roma party that will make Berlesconi look like Shirley Williams.
Fin ,
‘possibly it’s time to try something different.’
But hang on a minute isn’t the TUV different ? We’ve never heard their message before have we ?
Pardon my french but if you take a peek at the political history of NI since William Craig marched with Vanguard up to Paisley’s early a.m hill marching exercises with the turd/tired /third force ? you should realise that Unionism does not have within it the capacity for anything ‘different ‘ Never mind Allister just look at the UUP prostrating themsleves in front of the Tories as if it were 1912 all over again ?
Eventually they’ll get around to remembering how the Tories ditched them in 1972 but it’ll be a while . If the Cameroonians get a strong enough majority next time out (30 +) seats , Northern Ireland and its ‘issues’ will be heard of once a year at subvention time unless of course the sound of gunfire is heard above the silence .
Anyone else think the unionist vote actually represents a move forwards??? After all, it’s estimated that at the time of the GFA referendum 50% of unionists voted against the agreement – at these euro elections only 30% of unionist voted for the anti-agreement party….. What’s more, if we consider a DUP vote at the last euro election as being a vote against power sharing (in line with the DUP’s position at that time), then the number of anti-power-sharing votes has fallen significantly this time around…
*sign* thanks for the reality check Greenflag.
But, can I say But, the landscape is different now, hence the sudden distaste for ‘tribal politics’ among nice unionists, the inability of fear or plain old paddybashing to get the unionist vote out, and not least the GFA and powersharing. Clever unionism would try something new, but (again) I know exactly where your arguement is coming from
From a unionist perspective, I think we just sit and wait for David Cameron.
The wee pretendy Trumpton parliament can amuse the parochialists until a return of real government this Autumn (hopefully) or next spring.
From a unionist perspective, I think we just sit and wait for David Cameron.
The wee pretendy Trumpton parliament can amuse the parochialists until a return of real government this Autumn (hopefully) or next spring.
I think we should change the Heading of this discussion as I don’t think Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan are in a crisis, or even the occupied 6 either for that matter.
We can all say what we like about the TUV they have a view and have the right to hold that view. Many in NI agree with their view but don’t vote for them, in the words of one D. Cameron, they have the wisdom to accept it and move on.
We are left with 67,000 voters who don’t want to move on, they want to have anything but power sharing with SF. I suspect little will ever persuade them to change but they now have a leader to follow who will articulate thier views. The question is what do we do with them? And more to the point, what do the DUP do with them? As they have taken half their votes.
The DUP can stay where they are, move to TUV or move to the CU’s. I can see no real prospect of them going towards the TUV as they can’t ‘out extreme’ them, staying where they are is really not an option either as the CU’s have gained traction and the Wesminster election is their best hope of more success as it is their home ground.
Will the DUP move to the CU’s and ditch some of their more extreme members to the TUV, there is no doubt that such a coalition would be attractive to ‘Unionist’ voters. It would cement the Union, give all sections of unionism a voice and would return to the CU the voters seconded by the DUP in recent years and leave the old DUP mostly in the TUV.
I fear however that would not be a move welcomed by all the Conservatives and Unionists as there would still be too much baggage left in the DUP, it might take a few retirements in the DUP to make it happen e.g. the 6,000 yearers, two defectors and the family dynasties.
So it may be that a few lonely DUP members will take the journey(s) on their own over the coming months as they see the contradictions of their position beginning to bite.
Let us see who moves where and in which direction!
We can all say what we like about the TUV they have a view and have the right to hold that view. Many in NI agree with their view but don’t vote for them, in the words of one D. Cameron, they have the wisdom to accept it and move on.
We are left with 67,000 voters who don’t want to move on, they want to have anything but power sharing with SF. I suspect little will ever persuade them to change but they now have a leader to follow and who will articulate their views. The question is what do we do with them? And more to the point, what do the DUP do with them? As they have taken half their votes.
The DUP can stay where they are, move to TUV or move to the CU’s. I can see no real prospect of them going towards the TUV as they can’t ‘out extreme’ them, staying where they are is really not an option either as the CU’s have gained traction and the Wesminster election is their best hope of more success as it is their home ground.
Will the DUP move to the CU’s and ditch some of their more extreme members to the TUV, there is no doubt that such a coalition would be attractive to ‘Unionist’ voters. It would cement the Union, give all sections of unionism a voice and would return to the CU the voters seconded by the DUP in recent years and leave the old DUP mostly in the TUV.
I fear however that would not be a move welcomed by all the Conservatives and Unionists as there would still be too much baggage left in the DUP, it might take a few retirements in the DUP to make it happen e.g. the 6,000 yearers, two defectors and the family dynasties.
So it may be that a few lonely DUP members will take the journey(s) on their own over the coming months as they see the contradictions of their position beginning to bite.
Let us see who moves where and in which direction!
Fin ,
‘hence the sudden distaste for ‘tribal politics’ among nice unionists,’
You might well think that Fin but I could’nt possibly comment
It’s still a fist even if it’s covered by ‘white ‘ glove . The only reason the UUP have run to the Tories is because they see it as their only hope to regain lost ground in NI against the DUP. The ‘nice bits’ i.e the be nice to your Catholic neighbour is purely not to upset English middle class sensibilities mixed in with a reasonable anxiety over the longer term course of politics in a divided NI state .
As for the landscape being different ? It’s just the summer light . Wait till the drums start bating again and it’ll be back to the dreary steeples etc etc .
IMO – Northern Nationalists and Republicans should push for a fair Repartition and leave Unionists and Unionism to tear each other to shreds . They are more than capable of it. The rest of the UK and Ireland will probably approve and urge all parties on to self destruction.
One thing is sure -Allister will NEVER be First Minister in any NI Executive unless of course he eats his own tonsils like Paisley and Trimble and the rest of them had to do .
It’s about time Irish nationalism in NI stood up for itself and came out loudly and strongly to tell Allister and his ilk where to go .
Come on Adams/McGuinness and Durkan speak up and out in defence of power sharing and tell the TUV where they can go !! Or else plan for repartition and be done with the endless shite of trying to make Northern Ireland a normal democracy ! It can’t be done -not in a 6 county context anyway !
Greenflag, I’m all for partition, but do we take all of Scotland and Wales or leave Edinburgh in the UK, I think Luton might want to come over aswell ; )
Fin
‘but do we take all of Scotland and Wales or leave Edinburgh in the UK,’
You’ll have to watch these imperialistic tendencies Fin . They can get out of hand . Before you know it you’ll be annexing France , Germany and even the Russians . Why you might even end up like a former Empire (we’ll mention no names ) which had 25% of the land surface of the earth under it’s jurisdiction and which went to war with a younger imperial power on the basis of the younger power being a vicious ruthless tyrant . And we would’nt want that now would we ?
Fin
‘but do we take all of Scotland and Wales or leave Edinburgh in the UK,’
You’ll have to watch these imperialistic tendencies Fin . They can get out of hand . Before you know it you’ll be annexing France , Germany and even the Russians . Why you might even end up like a former Empire (we’ll mention no names ) which had 25% of the land surface of the earth under it’s jurisdiction and which went to war with a younger imperial power on the basis of the younger power being a vicious ruthless tyrant . And we would’nt want that now would we ?
Repartition sounds good, but we don’t want Cork as we don’t want to learn another new language.
We’ll take South Dublin (and George Lee), yousunns can have South Armagh (and Conor Murphy)back.
We’ll even throw in Rockall if we can have Tory Island.
Driftwood ,
We’ll take Fermanagh , Tyrone , most of Armagh , most of Down , Derry and Belfast and youse can have Tory Island on account of the fact that the fat faced puffins are probably Tories anyway
It could prove a place of refuge for when the Tories next destroy the British economy ?
frustrated democrat ,
You have a point re Cork -I can never make out what the feckers are saying either . They’re worse than the Welsh for speedy talking . Still they produce a fair few good rugby players not to mention the occassional internationally ranked soccer thug like yer man Keane etc:)
And where would a “fair repartition” leave us Gaels in the Glens of Antrim Greenflag?
Thanks, but em….no thanks. I’m sure you understand.
Greenflag, we’ll take all of Down, but offer you another island:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5357568/MPs-expenses-Sir-Peter-Viggers-claimed-for-1600-floating-duck-island.html
Mary Lou could be Lord (or Lady)?