Should Unionism do a Salmond in South Belfast?
The SNP has achieved significant advances in the Scottish elections (* more below the fold). Part of the SNP’s electoral strategy was the party leadership standing in target not safe seats. Alex Salmond took the greatest risk running in Gordon, eighteenth on the SNP’s target list, and it paid off. The seat was won with almost twice the national swing to the SNP.
Unionism will be targeting South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone in the forthcoming Westminster elections. The recent Assembly result in South Belfast has given Unionism cause to think with between 2000-4000 regular Unionist voters sitting at home and neither nominal Westminster candidates (Spratt and McGimpsey) appearing to have caught the electorate’s imagination. Besides the electoral pact to be sorted out, should Unionism look about moving in a big name to run? In 2005 the Unionist vote was over 16,000 and greater than 50% and even with a poor performance in 2007 Unionism outpolled Nationalism so it is a winnable and holdable seat. PLUS nearly all existing seats are safe making a change of candidate unlikely to threaten a seat. A big name would also communicate how serious Unionism was about creating the positive story of winning back a seat from Nationalism.
* The SNP advance seems to have been achieved primarily by mopping up the pro-independence SSP vote and a few percentage points off Labour. However, the advances are not as great as predicted with the SNP and Labour almost tied in the popular vote and so far Labour have a clearer lead over the SNP in the regional vote although a bigger SNP lead in the regional vote.
Funny I don’t get the same aroma in Cardiff… Alex not particularly personally ambitious (I know you’ll find that hard to believe !!) – Quebec case is relevant of course but you have to go when the zeitgeist is with u…….don’t get many chances…best Wittengstein quote “I don’t know the meaning of life but I’m sure it’s more than just having fun”…or summat like that (not at all relevant sorry….and even less to Fermanagh South Tyrone or Belfast South.
How can Salmond be taken seriously as an independent candidate? I mean, he’s only going to come out of one Union and into another (Europe).
Dig a bit deeper and it simply seems like good old British phobia in Scotland.
PE,
You’re right about the “Scottish” press. I’ve read plenty of words written about this election in the last few weeks that could have been written by Gordie himself and for the SNP to win more seats than any other party with the full force of a biased media ranged against them is some achievment indeed.
As for the nasty side of English nationalism I have to say that I am mightily relieved that the Nazi appologists made no great inroads in our council elections, besides which those types are in the main British nationalists rather than English who despite having utter contempt for anyone who isn’t white, Anglo-Saxon or protestant are quite happy to impose their idea of “Britishness” upon everybody on these islands (including the people of the Irish Republic).
There is indeed a stirring in England but it has little to do with right-wing nationalism and everything to do with fairness and being treated with equality. Don’t believe what you hear when you hear nationalism in England described as sinister or dangerous. They are just the words of carpet baggers who are afraid that their gravy train might become de-railed. Salmond recognises that England is being treated unfairly but the leaders of the Con/Lab/LibDem establishment will not defend the rights of the English because they are desperate for votes in Scotland and Wales and believe that to be pro-English is somehow anti-Scottish/Welsh.
The English want politicians to treat England as a nation, not as a bunch or regions of the UK (or of Europe) and we don’t like being told by people who were not elected by anybody living in England what we can or can’t have or that “there is no such nationality as English” as one leading Labour figure was once quoted as saying. At the moment the consensus is for an English parliament within the UK but the longer the will of the English people is ignored by our political representatives the more likely our seccesion from the UK becomes.
“Then the matter of nationalist pacts arises. Hmmm… they’ve been resistant in the past, with the two parties historically splitting the nationalist vote in FST, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, South Down and West Tyrone: sometimes to unionists’ advantage and other times less so. Why should they start pacts now? Well the old policing issue is gone, making the 2 nationalist parties indistinguishable, at least in policy terms. However I think that Sinn Fein are out to destroy the SDLP in Foyle and South Down, which hardly puts them in the mood for doing much to help Sinn Fein.”
If you attempt a Unionist pact in FST, you will hand a victory to SF. It is, by numbers, now a Nationalist seat. If the SDLP refuses to agree a pact, I’d still reckon SF could run it close on as it Unionism attempting to manipulate the process would piss people off, and even if they do lose the seat, the SDLP would take the wrap and strengthen SF more in the long run.
This to me, is still Unionist fantasy land.
There will be no electoral pacts on either side at the next election. The DUP and Sinn Fein will certainly not throw the floundering UUP and SDLP a life saver, even if it costs them a seat.
If Foster gets a clear run in FST, she will win. Sure some SDLP voters might back Gildernew as a result, and not all UUP voters will back Foster, but I would expect a narrow win for Foster.
As for South Belfast, parachuting Donaldson would probably swing it for the DUP, but he would be loathe to leave Lagan Valley. I expect Jimmy Spratt will run again, he’ll probably do better than last time, but SF and Alliance tactical voting, plus an increased nationalist population will probably give McDonnell an increased majority.
As for Scotland, I don’t believe a Referendum will take place. Even if it was, its timing would be irrelevant. In Quebec the PQ tried the gradualist approach first, after being elected in 1976 they waited until 1980 before holding a referendum on a very ambigious question and lost 60-40%.
When they got in again in 1994 they went for the fast approach, holding another referendum in 1995 with a slightly clearer question. They lost again narrowly, 51-49% though probably because the federalist campaign was rather inept.
At the most recent Quebec election the PQ finished third. I’m not going to break sweat about Scotland leaving the union anytime soon.
And the ADQ (centre-right, moderately-sovereigntist) did exceptionally well, in part because they sold themselves as the party for people who were bored with sovereignty issue after 30 years.
But don’t underestimate how much damage the bitterness of ’95 did to the Quebec sovereignty movement, in a way that wasn’t necessarily apparent at the time.
“OK, crazy idea time, but why not have a SNP + CON coallition”
Weren’t the SNP once called the “Tartan Tories”. Also, I seem to remember that the SNP were considered anti-catholic: In the 1930s it had advocated Home Rule within the Empire and its supporters had attacked the Irish as ‘a foreign element’. Are the SNP really like the DUP then – much as the DUP are being increasingly called “Ulster Nationalists” rather than “Unionists”?
A ‘big name’ unionist could get all those student votes registered to south belfast and then Sinn Fein takes it.
I like politics, its works like a sort of tax on stupidity.
DK
Sammy has covered your questions pretty well in an earlier post. Whatever way they were seen is now no longer the case, despite some in the Catholic community (not just the older ones) still having reservations.
The Catholic church has came out pretty much full swing behind the SNP. They won’t say as much, but at mass a fortnight ago priests all over Scotland read out an open letter from the Bishop’s. It railed against gay adoption and stem cell tampering to create children. What the letter done in actual fact was scream from the rooftops don’t vote Labour. Last week our priest spoke for ages in support of the SNP, mainly because the week before he had spoke to many older parishioners who were adamant that they would not vote SNP. Speaking to a friend yesterday who told me that her parents voted Labour, whilst her, her partner and all their siblings bar one voted SNP.
Labour called the SNP the tartan tories because in the past they probably were a right of centre party. They are now to the left of Labour, but that wouldn’t be hard. There is absolutely no chance of a coalition with the Tories, their legacy in Scotland ensures that it would be political suicide. I think that the precarious balance of power in the new Parliament ensures that the parties (including the tories) will co-operate with each other at some time. Although don’t hold your breath on Labour and the SNP co-existing amicably. There has been real animosity, even hatred built up over the past months that I suspect will get worse.
Phil
The reason I mentioned it was because I chanced upon one of these right wing blogs and it had links to all kind of racist shite. The English democrats were linked also. I reckon as you grow stronger these guys will have to be told in no uncertain terms where to go ;¬)
I wish you guys all the luck in the world.
Sammy
Alex Salmond has stated clearly that he plans to give the Scottish public a chance to judge the SNP in government. The strategy hinges on good policies and building confidence. It might just serve to expose the propaganda fed to us that the SNP would be a disaster. Too many it seems have believed this, then again if you are fed this in almost blanket coverage in the media it is inevitable.
PE,
They are and will continue to be told where to go!
spent a wonderful day bunging election results in spreadsheets (Geek is good !) – Scottish constituencies have wonderful names – “Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley” – that’s from Tolkien surely ! are the 14,350 Labour voters hobbits, elks or orcs ???
Fair Deal
Do you seriously believe that any Unionist at present can win FST or SB, if so then you are very much mistake.
The DUP can no longer use the slogan of keep Sinn Fein out, the next election will see a drop in the Unionist vote due to the UUP’s ineptitude and due to the DUP’s complete deception.
“Gaelic speaking Nationalist voting Presbyterians are..er most likely to be anti-RC-(outside of those at a southwest Glasgow sporting venue at noon today- quite a few of whom will be Asian”
There will be Gaelic speaking Nationalist voting pro-RC Asian Presbyterians at a southwest Glasgow sporting venue at noon today? Shurely shome mishtake????
Dodrade
The DUP haven’t a mission of taking FST without an electoral pact. They tried & failed in 2005, and in 2007 Sinn Fein outpolled them once again. The UUP have fallen into a sorry 3rd but the 8-9000 votes they have there are quite solid, and I imagine there is a lot of nostalgia amongst these people for the days of Ken Maginnis and his majorities of 13000 or so. Expect Gildernew to add a few more votes to her tally. Therefore Foster would need around 5000 votes, which is well over half the UUP’s current vote share. I very much doubt they can do that, but if they want the seat they’ll deal. Why do you think they won’t – Unionist parties have had a long history of electoral pacts, and now they’ve seen the danger of going it alone it would seem sensible to do so once again. All the nationalists need is for one party to be pig headed and uncompromising (like the UUP in 2005) and they’ve done it! So we’ll have to wait and see.
As for South Belfast, perhaps the DUP could overturn Alisdair’s majority of 1000 or so, the UUP aren’t holding up quite so well here. Will the Alliance waste everyone’s time by standing here? Or endorse the SDLP/UUP? I expect Maskey’s vote to take a dip too, maybe between 500-1000 in favour of the SDLP. All this would become much less relevent if a pact was reached. But it will be interesting to see what happens McDonnell – some splittlers are short lived such as Willie Thompson or Jim Nicholson, others like Ken Maginnis and Willie McCrea can go on for years and years and years.
Re Rodger
“The DUP can no longer use the slogan of keep Sinn Fein out, the next election will see a drop in the Unionist vote due to the UUP’s ineptitude and due to the DUP’s complete deception.”
Well it’s been a fun 200 years but I suppose now unionists are ready to throw their beliefs for no good reason
“Why do you think they won’t – Unionist parties have had a long history of electoral pacts, and now they’ve seen the danger of going it alone it would seem sensible to do so once again.”
Because the number one aim of the DUP is to destroy the UUP. They have them by the throat and are not going to relax their grip now even if it means a potential unionist seat being retained by nationalists.
The most likely way for Unionism to win back FST and South Belfast would be the pact offered by Peter Robinson before 2005, dividing the two seats betwen them and giving the other a clear run, but the UUP turned it down and the DUP would never repeat the offer since the DUP is now the largest Unionist party in both those seats, and will be looking to wipe out Lady Sylvia next time. They probably still fancy their chances of winning South Belfast even with McGimpsey still in the race, though I suspect otherwise.
I’m not sure you read my post carefully enough, I never suggested Foster could win without a UUP withdrawal. The DUP as the largest unionist party in FST will put enormous pressure on the UUP to withdraw, saying a vote for Elliot is a vote for Gildernew, and ensure the UUP get the blame if he stands and SF retain the seat. It will be a no win situation for them, damned if they stand, doomed if they don’t. I suspect they will cave in and step aside.